Core Viewpoint - The conference focused on the theme of "Enhancing Production Efficiency and Empowering Brands," aiming to explore high-quality development paths for the egg industry in the context of new challenges and opportunities [1][5][16]. Group 1: Industry Development and Standards - The Sichuan Provincial Livestock Association's Egg Industry Branch will initiate the formulation of two group standards: "Sichuan Quality Fresh Eggs" and "Production Specifications for Sichuan Quality Fresh Eggs" to unify quality indicators and production norms, thereby enhancing the value of "Sichuan Eggs" [3]. - The president of the Sichuan Provincial Livestock Association emphasized the need to leverage national-level advantageous industrial cluster projects to focus on improving production capacity, quality, standards, marketing, and risk control, thereby promoting high-quality industry development [5]. Group 2: Company Insights and Practices - Fengji Food Group shared its practical experience in digitalized farming, brand operation, and industry chain collaboration, providing a valuable reference for the industry [1][16]. - The chairman of Fengji Food Group highlighted the company's strategic investment of 2 billion yuan in collaboration with the government to introduce advanced international equipment and intelligent systems, build modern breeding bases, and enhance the entire industry chain [9]. - Fengji's brand "Fengnike" focuses on high-quality breeding by introducing international breeds and establishing strict biosecurity and testing systems to ensure the health of chicks, laying a solid foundation for high-quality egg production [9]. Group 3: Brand Building and Market Strategy - Fengji Food Group's strategy includes extensive offline tasting events across over 200 cities and targeted online marketing through platforms like Xiaohongshu, effectively linking consumers' perceptions of high-quality eggs with the brand [10]. - The company aims to lead a quality revolution in the egg industry by restructuring its value chain around consumer needs and maintaining effective communication strategies [13]. Group 4: Conference Highlights and Discussions - The roundtable discussion addressed the topic of how Sichuan enterprises can enhance production capacity, improve internal capabilities, and seek development at a new starting point, providing diverse insights for local businesses [14]. - The conference provided a comprehensive examination and forward-looking perspective on the egg industry, emphasizing the importance of brand building, value enhancement, and industry upgrading [16].

本次推介会是宁夏借助高端平台，推动"宁字号"特色农产品走向全国、迈向世界的重要举措。享誉全国的贺兰山东麓葡萄酒、枸杞、牛奶、肉 牛、滩羊、冷凉蔬菜等悉数亮相，而源自闽宁镇、在戈壁滩上成长起来的晓鸣股份，则以其在蛋鸡种源领域的突出成就，展现了宁夏农业"精 尖优"的差异化发展道路。 晓鸣股份代表冯茹娟在发言中介绍，公司作为"中国蛋鸡第一股"，是一家"引繁推"一体化的科技型蛋鸡制种企业，立志成为世界级的中国蛋鸡 种源企业。经过33年发展，公司已构建起从种源到餐桌的完整产业闭环，作为国内种鸡苗市场的主要供应商之一，市场占有率超过25%。这意 味着，中国老百姓餐桌上每四枚鸡蛋中，就有一枚源自晓鸣股份。 转自：新华网 12月4日，在2025企业家博鳌论坛举行期间，宁夏回族自治区农业农村厅联合新华社宁夏分社举办"宁夏精品中国行（海南站）暨绿色优质农产 品推介会"。活动以"宁品出塞·鲜鉴博鳌 共享绿色健康美好生活"为主题，集中展示了宁夏"六特"产业的丰硕成果。 作为宁夏农业产业化龙头企业代表，宁夏晓鸣农牧股份有限公司在会上分享了其以科技创新和绿色发展引领蛋鸡产业升级的经验，企业"让世 界看到戈壁滩的生命力"的品牌主张，成为宁 ...

（来源：蛋品世界WECD） 2025年12月2日，江西省"社企对接重点村"工作推进会上，瑞昌市农业农村局与上海昭菲农林发展公司 签约500万羽零碳智慧蛋鸡养殖项目，该项目在桂林街道常丰村落地，将引入先进的养殖技术和环保理 念，打造现代化的蛋鸡养殖基地。 该项目总投资10亿元，预计投产后可实现年产鸡蛋约15亿枚，复合肥6万吨，年产值有望达到7.76亿 元。 上海昭菲致力于打造国内领先的智能化、生态化、规模化蛋鸡养殖全产业链，从饲料生产、蛋鸡养殖到 食品深加工全环节把控，实现 "高产、高效、绿色、可持续" 的现代化产业模式，完成蛋鸡全生命周期 数字化，精准饲喂、精准环控、精准识别、精准管控等高度数字化水平，为地方产业赋能。 （来源：蛋品世界WECD） 2025年12月2日，江西省"社企对接重点村"工作推进会上，瑞昌市农业农村局与上海昭菲农林发展公司 签约500万羽零碳智慧蛋鸡养殖项目，该项目在桂林街道常丰村落地，将引入先进的养殖技术和环保理 念，打造现代化的蛋鸡养殖基地。 该项目总投资10亿元，预计投产后可实现年产鸡蛋约15亿枚，复合肥6万吨，年产值有望达到7.76亿 元。 上海昭菲致力于打造国内领先的智能化、生 ...

目前蛋鸡养殖行业面临供给充裕、需求乏力，成本竞争加剧的格局，利润对产能的传导是周期性波动的 关键所在。我们基于在产存栏量和养殖利润，辅以价格、社融、利率等指标，将鸡蛋市场基本面周期定 性地划分为景气、压力、出清、回暖四个阶段。 基于周期推演，2025年下半年蛋鸡养殖行业由压力期过渡至出清期，针对市场是否会出现超淘现象、整 体补栏下行拐点何时发生、春节前冷库蛋能否全部出库、资本投机行为是否会改变市场长期趋势、疫病 风险是否具有持续性，以及未来行情如何判断等问题，正信期货调研团队于11月底深入辛集、衡水、聊 城、曲周、馆陶、邯郸等蛋鸡产业一线，携手当地具有代表性的养殖企业、贸易商、种鸡企业及大型屠 宰企业，通过实地考察了解行业发展现状，寻找供需矛盾，为后市行情提供参考。 问题1： 市场是否会出现超淘现象 "超淘"需综合考量存栏总量、鸡龄结构、淘汰鸡价格及养殖户情绪等多重因素，而非简单的提前淘汰行 为。当前河北淘鸡价格为3.2元／斤，湖北为3.6元／斤，尽管养殖户面临亏损，但由于有前4年盈利积累 的资金缓冲，暂未出现无抵抗式集中抛售。 从淘鸡日龄看，当前淘鸡500天以上占比超80%，450~500天淘鸡占比持续增加 ...

河北、山东地区调研 行业整体处于产能缓慢出清阶段，此阶段的持续时间将受淘鸡节奏、补栏意愿及种源改善等多重因素影 响，需持续跟踪动态变化。 目前蛋鸡养殖行业面临供给充裕、需求乏力，成本竞争加剧的格局，利润对产能的传导是周期性波动的 关键所在。我们基于在产存栏量和养殖利润，辅以价格、社融、利率等指标，将鸡蛋市场基本面周期定 性地划分为景气、压力、出清、回暖四个阶段。 基于周期推演，2025年下半年蛋鸡养殖行业由压力期过渡至出清期，针对市场是否会出现超淘现象、整 体补栏下行拐点何时发生、春节前冷库蛋能否全部出库、资本投机行为是否会改变市场长期趋势、疫病 风险是否具有持续性，以及未来行情如何判断等问题，正信期货调研团队于11月底深入辛集、衡水、聊 城、曲周、馆陶、邯郸等蛋鸡产业一线，携手当地具有代表性的养殖企业、贸易商、种鸡企业及大型屠 宰企业，通过实地考察了解行业发展现状，寻找供需矛盾，为后市行情提供参考。 问题1： 市场是否会出现超淘现象 "超淘"需综合考量存栏总量、鸡龄结构、淘汰鸡价格及养殖户情绪等多重因素，而非简单的提前淘汰行 为。当前河北淘鸡价格为3.2元/斤，湖北为3.6元/斤，尽管养殖户面临亏损，但由于 ...

2025 年 11 月 28 日 超量淘汰下的鸡蛋做多策略 | 谢义钦 | | 投资咨询从业资格号： | Z0017082 | xieyiqin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴 | 昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号： | Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 面对持续亏损的状态，养殖户纷纷选择减少补栏同时加速淘汰老鸡的方式出清产能，从淘汰鸡日龄、 周度出栏量等核心指标来看，当前淘汰速度已呈现加快趋势，后期因高存栏导致的供给压力有望得到显著 缓解，基于此，我们推荐突破买入鸡蛋 2602 合约的交易策略。 主要风险： 养殖户淘汰数量重新下降； 鸡蛋需求大幅下降。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 期货研究 （正文） 1. 蛋鸡存栏高，养殖效益差 2023-2024 年度蛋鸡养殖行业连续盈利，一方面提升了养殖户的抗风险能力，另一方面也让市场对 2025 年蛋价形成较高预期，共同推动国内蛋鸡存栏量攀升至历史同期高位。根据钢联数据，截至 2025 年 10 月底，全国在产蛋鸡存栏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty, the January main contract has given a certain premium. However, considering that the downward space is relatively limited as the pre - holiday stocking approaches, it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.12 yuan per catty, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The national mainstream price remains stable, and the egg prices in major markets in Beijing remain stable. The egg prices in Northeast China, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are generally stable [4]. - In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from November 2025 to February 2026 is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - In the week of November 21, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - As of the week of November 21, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7,472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week [5]. - As of November 13, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.15 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week. On November 6, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 6.1 yuan per bird, a decrease of 1.19 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - As of the week of November 21, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. - Today, the price of culled chickens in the whole country has increased, and the average price in the main producing areas is 3.81 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [6]. 2. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term. The January main contract has given a certain premium, and considering the approaching pre - holiday stocking, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Consider building long positions in the January contract on dips [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the spot price of eggs in the main producing areas, the spot price of eggs in the main selling areas, the price of chicken seedlings, the price of culled chickens, the feed cost of single - catty eggs, the inventory of laying hens in production and future inventory projections, various price spreads, and profit expectations [11][15][19]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic egg-laying chicken farming industry faced unprecedented challenges in 2025, with a significant drop in profitability due to falling egg prices, despite a slight decrease in production costs. The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential recovery in profitability driven by a rise in egg prices and a decrease in supply [1][9]. Summary by Sections Profitability and Market Conditions - The egg-laying chicken farming industry was in a profitable cycle from 2021 to 2024, with average profits exceeding 0.50 yuan per pound. However, in 2025, profitability sharply declined, with average profits per pound dropping over 90% year-on-year from January to October, marking the lowest average profit level in five years [1][9]. - The decline in egg prices was the primary factor affecting profitability, despite production costs remaining low [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Seasonal demand for eggs weakened, limiting the potential for demand growth. Direct consumption slightly increased, but overall demand was constrained by low prices of pork, broiler chickens, and vegetables, which reduced market acceptance of high-priced eggs. Additionally, food processing companies reduced order volumes, leading to a limited increase in egg demand [3]. - The average daily shipment of eggs from production areas increased slightly by 1.15% year-on-year from January to October 2025, but overall supply remained ample while demand support was weak, resulting in egg prices dropping over 20% year-on-year [3]. Production and Cost Factors - The high profitability in 2023-2024 led to increased enthusiasm for breeding, with total chick sales continuing to rise in 2024-2025. The average number of laying hens in production reached a five-year high, with a year-on-year increase of over 5% [4]. - Although feed costs slightly decreased due to lower prices for corn and soybean meal, this reduction was insufficient to offset the significant drop in income, leading to a continued decline in overall profitability [6]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The egg-laying chicken farming industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability in 2026, driven by a decrease in supply and a potential increase in egg prices due to traditional holiday demand and a recovery in restaurant consumption [8]. - The supply of laying hens is projected to decrease, which may alleviate some supply pressure. Egg prices are expected to rise by over 2% year-on-year, while feed costs may continue to decline by 1-2% [8][9]. - Overall, average profitability for egg-laying chicken farming is anticipated to improve by 0.10-0.20 yuan per pound in 2026, although the recovery process will still be influenced by factors such as culling rates and external market fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in both chicken product sales volume and revenue in October 2025, influenced by the overall supply-demand dynamics in the industry [1] Company Summary - In October 2025, the company sold 19.4567 million chickens, generating a revenue of 56.2981 million yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10% and 14.9% respectively, and a year-on-year decline of 17.15% and 34.89% [1] - The fluctuations in sales volume and revenue are attributed to the current oversupply in the egg-laying chicken farming industry and unmet market demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] Industry Summary - The egg-laying chicken farming industry is currently facing a surplus supply, leading to cautious expectations among farming units regarding future market conditions [1] - The seasonal consumption downturn post-holidays has increased market pressure, resulting in low egg prices and a decrease in the enthusiasm for replenishing stock [1] - Additionally, the weak price trends of both live pigs and broiler chickens have indirectly suppressed egg consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic egg market is experiencing significant price volatility around the 2025 Spring Festival, with a pattern of "temporary stabilization before the festival and continuous decline after" impacting companies like Anhui Yuemu Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. The company successfully hedged price risks using options, providing a practical model for similar enterprises [2][3][4]. Market Background and Company Pain Points - After the 2025 Spring Festival, egg demand enters a traditional off-season, with household reserves from the festival expected to meet 15-20 days of demand, leading to a consumption gap [3]. - Supply-side pressures are exacerbated by delayed culling of old hens and high inventory levels, resulting in a significant imbalance in the egg market [3]. - The average daily circulation of eggs in major production areas increased by 8-10% compared to January, contributing to market pressure [3]. - The price of eggs is influenced by multiple factors, including the cycle of laying hens, feed costs, seasonal consumption, and disease, leading to significant volatility [4]. Core Operational Pain Points - Price volatility risks are squeezing profit margins, particularly during the post-festival demand slump in February 2025 [4]. - The company's sales model primarily relies on "spot retail" with a "cost-plus pricing" strategy, where feed costs account for 70% of total breeding costs. Rising feed prices could create a "scissors gap" between rigid costs and selling prices, severely impacting profits [5]. - Previous hedging attempts, such as adjusting inventory and futures hedging, have limitations due to the lag in inventory adjustments and high capital requirements for margin [6]. Options Strategy Development - To address the need for hedging against price declines while retaining upside potential, the company collaborated with Everbright Futures to develop a "buy put option" strategy [7]. Strategy Design Logic - The selected tool, put options, offers a non-linear profit and loss structure that aligns with the company's needs, allowing for profit from price declines while preserving gains from price increases [8]. - The strike price for the options was set at 3200 yuan/500kg, above the market forecast for February, ensuring coverage of potential losses [9]. - The options have a lower premium cost compared to at-the-money options, optimizing cost control [9]. Execution of the Strategy - On February 11, the company purchased 100 lots of put options at a premium of 62 yuan/500kg, matching its production scale while minimizing cash flow pressure [12]. - The strategy included dynamic tracking services from Everbright Futures, providing market insights and analysis to support decision-making [12]. Strategy Execution Results - In February 2025, egg prices fell from 3450 yuan/500kg at the end of January to 2950 yuan/500kg by the end of February, with the futures contract reaching the strike price multiple times [13]. - The company realized a net profit of 49,000 yuan after deducting the premium, effectively hedging against the decline in egg prices [13]. Comparative Analysis and Insights - A comparison of three hedging methods highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, emphasizing the suitability of put options for the company's specific risk profile [14]. - The insights suggest that matching tools to needs is crucial, with put options recommended for scenarios with a high probability of price declines [15]. - The strategy's design ensures that the strike price covers the breakeven point and the expiration date aligns with the risk period, maintaining continuity in hedging [16]. - Smaller enterprises can leverage futures companies for market analysis and professional guidance, reducing barriers to using derivatives [17]. Summary - The company effectively used a put option strategy to hedge against price declines in the egg market, resulting in a net profit that mitigated some of the losses from the spot market. This approach aligns with the needs of small to medium-sized egg enterprises for manageable risk, flexible returns, and low capital requirements, indicating a growing maturity in the egg options market [18].