思想钢印每日投资感悟 20250430 去年是大票业绩强于小票，但 Q1 小盘指数业绩改善明显改善，超过了大盘指数的业绩， 也验证了复苏期，往往小票先行的宏观经验 一、宏观&策略 | | A股市场核心指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 创成长 | 创业板综 | 创价值 | 国证2000 | | 1.66% | 1.25% | 1.11% | 1.04% | | 1118181819 | 科创20 | 创业板50 | 创业板指 | | 50 0.87% | 0.85% | 0.84% | 0.83% | | 中证1000 | 深证A指 | 东方财富 | 国证1000 | | 0.79% | 0.70% | 全A 0.09% | 0.06% | | 中证800 | 中证A100 | 沪深300 | FIF180 | | 0.04% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.17% | | A股指数 | 上证指数 | FJF20 | 红利指数 | | -0.23% | -0.23% | -0.47% | -0.87% | 一季报全部出披露完毕，一定程度上也解释了一季度的上涨 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The valuation of Chinese technology assets has rapidly recovered and then retreated, with the Hang Seng Technology Index reaching a peak increase of 39% this year [1] - The narrative around the rise of AI in China has become a consensus, shifting investor focus to earnings expectations, CAPEX growth, and the efficiency improvements brought by AI applications [1] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for Chinese technology assets, anticipating technical advancements and application implementations to drive upward revisions in earnings forecasts [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The Hang Seng Technology Index may enter a short-term consolidation phase after a rapid valuation increase, with potential upward drivers including advancements from major model vendors and strong earnings guidance from leading internet and cloud companies [1] - The valuation increase in the Hang Seng Technology Index may spill over into investment opportunities in innovative pharmaceuticals and AI+ healthcare sectors [1] - The recent decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index presents a mid-term buying opportunity [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a decline of 11.6% since March 19 due to factors such as stock placements and impending "reciprocal tariffs," but the overall reversal trend for the year remains intact [3] - Historical peaks in stock placements typically occur during periods of ample liquidity and relatively high valuations, suggesting that current market conditions may support stock prices in the medium to long term [3] - The dynamic PE ratios for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index are currently at 10.3x and 17.5x, respectively, indicating significant value compared to historical levels [3] Group 4: Sector Performance - The healthcare sector is expected to show signs of demand or performance recovery in Q1 2025, driven by policy optimization and AI empowerment, leading to a valuation reassessment [8] - The computer industry is projected to see steady revenue growth in Q1 2025, with particular strength in computing power, AI applications, and related sectors [10] - The agricultural chemicals sector is focusing on global expansion to counteract domestic pressures, with leading companies leveraging their integrated supply chains to enhance overseas market share [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][24]. Core Insights - Manus has significantly increased the attention on AI Agents, indicating a strengthening trend in the industry. AI Agents are expected to become the next mainstream AI product form, succeeding Chatbots. They are capable of executing tasks autonomously, browsing the web, conducting research, developing code, analyzing data, creating content, and replaying tasks. This evolution is seen as a necessary step towards achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [6][17][24]. - The AI+Healthcare sector is experiencing rapid catalysts, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. The establishment of AI-assisted diagnostic solutions and the integration of AI technologies into healthcare software are expected to create differentiated advantages for companies in this space. The domestic healthcare software market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a total market size of 35.75 billion yuan by 2028 [21][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From March 3 to March 7, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index increased by 6.74%. The top five performing stocks in the sector were Lifan Holdings, Yunding Technology, Zhiyuan Huilian, Xinkaipu, and Shisheng Intelligent [11]. Industry News - The 14th National People's Congress opened on March 5, 2025, where Premier Li Qiang emphasized the continuous promotion of "AI+" actions, integrating digital technology with manufacturing and market advantages, and supporting the widespread application of large models [15]. Key Company Announcements - Jinli Technology announced plans to sign a fund cooperation agreement to invest in the "14+7" strategic emerging industry cluster in Nanshan District, Shenzhen [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with foresight in the AI Agent field and those possessing industry know-how are likely to benefit first. The report highlights specific companies to watch in the AI Agent and computing power sectors, including Dingjie Zhizhi, Yonyou Network, Saiyi Information, Haiguang Information, and Yunsai Zhili. In the AI+Healthcare sector, companies such as Rundar Medical, Neusoft Group, Chuangye Huikang, and Jiuyuan Yinhai are recommended [24][26].