Industry Insights - The sales data for April in the Chinese construction machinery industry shows mixed results, with non-earthmoving machinery sales fluctuating. Forklift sales remain resilient, while tower crane domestic sales have decreased by 61% year-on-year, and exports increased by 49%. Aerial work platform sales have dropped by 31% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness. The report maintains a positive outlook on earthmoving machinery due to its early recovery in project and replacement cycles [2][4]. - The report continues to favor Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH, Buy) and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH, Buy) due to their high revenue share from excavators. It also supports Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH, Buy) for its strategy of rapid expansion in emerging markets through a broad product line. Conversely, a cautious view is maintained on Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, Hold) due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [2][4]. Company Analysis - Trip.com Group (TCOM US, Buy, Target Price: $70.00) reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 13.9 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit reached RMB 4 billion, exceeding forecasts by 7%, driven by optimized sales and marketing expenses. The overall travel demand remains resilient, and the company's international expansion is progressing as planned, expected to yield long-term value [5]. - Bilibili (BILI US, Buy, Target Price: $26.50) announced Q1 2025 revenue growth of 24% to RMB 7 billion, meeting market expectations. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 362 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB 456 million in the previous year, driven by an 8% increase in gross margin and a 13% reduction in R&D expenses. The company is projected to maintain a 20% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, with further profit margin improvements anticipated [5]. - Three-Sixty Biopharmaceuticals (1530 HK, Buy, Target Price: HKD 28.32) has licensed its PD-1/VEGF candidate to Pfizer, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, along with a double-digit sales share. This deal exceeds market expectations and is expected to significantly enhance the company's profits in 2025 [6][8].

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, Atour Group, Luckin Coffee, and Proya, all rated as "Buy" with target price increases ranging from 12% to 37%[5] - The average market capitalization of the recommended stocks is approximately $25 billion for Geely Automobile and $19.7 billion for Xpeng Motors[5] - The average daily trading volume for these stocks varies, with Geely Automobile at $200.2 million and Xpeng Motors at $248.2 million[5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY24A shows Geely Automobile at 10.90, while Xpeng Motors is not available (N/A)[5] - Return on equity (ROE) for FY24A is highest for Atour Group at 47.5%, while Xpeng Motors is N/A[5] - Dividend yield for FY24A is 1.7% for Geely Automobile and 5.4% for Xpeng Motors[5] Group 3: Performance Review - The basket of 22 stocks listed in the previous report had an average return of 6.0%, compared to the MSCI China Index return of 8.1%[9] - Out of the 22 stocks, 6 outperformed the benchmark index[9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the United States leads with 229 investment projects in Germany, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, while Switzerland ranks second with 202 projects, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1] - In 2024, Germany attracted a total of 1,724 foreign greenfield and brownfield investment projects, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2%, amounting to an investment value of €23.2 billion [1] - Chinese enterprises ranked third with 199 investment projects in Germany, showing a minimal decrease of one project compared to 2023, indicating stability in Chinese investment [1][3] Group 2 - Foreign companies are increasingly investing in key strategic sectors in Germany, particularly in digitalization, renewable energy, and IT services, with one in five investment projects related to these areas, reflecting a 3 percentage point increase year-on-year [3] - Chinese investments in Germany are predominantly in electronics and automation (25%), followed by energy and raw materials (21%) and transportation and logistics (19%) [3] - The report highlights that 26% of production and R&D projects in Germany are attributed to Chinese investments, showcasing a strong participation in these sectors [4] Group 3 - The bilateral trade volume between China and Germany is projected to slightly decrease to $201.88 billion in 2024, yet it remains at a high level [5] - Over 30 listed German companies have urged the new government to adopt a more pragmatic foreign economic policy to deepen economic and investment relations with China [5] - The new German government under Chancellor Merz is expected to focus on economic reforms, including deregulation and tax reductions, to enhance Germany's economic competitiveness [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that Germany remains an attractive investment destination in Europe, with 1,724 foreign greenfield and brownfield investment projects in 2024, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, but with a significant investment amount of €23.2 billion [1] - Seven projects in 2024 have investments exceeding €500 million, with five of those projects having investments of at least €1 billion, reflecting global companies' confidence in Germany's long-term development prospects [1] - The United States leads in investment numbers with 229 projects, followed by Switzerland with 202 projects, and China with 199 projects, showing a stable interest from Chinese enterprises in the German market [1] Group 2 - Foreign investment in key strategic industries has increased, particularly in digitalization and renewable energy, with software and IT services being the most prominent sectors [2] - Chinese enterprises maintain stable greenfield investments in Germany, focusing on electronics and automation (25%), energy and raw materials (21%), and transportation and logistics (19%) [3] - The participation of Chinese investors in production and R&D projects is notably high, with 26% of Chinese investments in Germany being in these areas, compared to 20% for foreign direct investment projects overall [3]

2025 年 5 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观、行业及公司点评 ◼ 中国经济 - 转口贸易和抢出口暂时抵消关税影响 尽管受到关税冲击，中国出口在 4 月仍表现出意想不到的韧性。尽管对美出 口大幅下滑，但对东盟的强劲增长在很大程度上抵消了这一损失，凸显了东 盟作为贸易转口目的地的作用日益增强。进口也远超市场预期，工业原材料 和集成电路进口量激增，可能因为对美国芯片关税豁免政策刺激抢进口。 我们预计关税政策最坏时刻可能过去，但对外贸冲击最严重的时刻尚未到来。 中国到美国的集装箱海运订单量和 PMI 出口订单指数等先行指标均大幅下降。 中美已开启谈判，我们认为将总体关税税率从 145%降至 80%在近期是可以 实现的，但进一步降至 30-40%的长期终端税率可能需要更长时间。 展望未来，我们预计中国商品出口增速将从 2024 年 5.9%放缓至 2025 年 1%， 进口增速可能从 1.1%小幅放缓至 0.5%。我们预计美元/人民币将从 2024 年 底的 7.35 降至 2025 年底的 7.25。（链接） 招银国际研究部 全球市场观察 宏观点评 邮件：resea ...

宏观、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 美国经济 - 就业仍然稳健降低近期降息概率 2025 年 5 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 美国 4 月新增非农就业 17.7 万人，超出市场预期，显示美国就业市场仍然稳 健。时薪增速延续下降，已基本回到与 2%通胀目标相符的水平，预示核心服 务通胀将保持回落。每周工时与职位空缺数/失业人口比已低于疫情前水平， 显示劳动力市场供需平衡，预示目前的就业市场应对关税冲击的缓冲更小。 失业率保持在 4.2%，就业人数连续 2 月反弹。 数据公布后市场预期 6 月不降息的概率从 42%升至 69%，全年降息幅度从 91bp 降至 78bp。由于就业市场仍然稳健，关税可能推升近期通胀，我们预 计美联储 5 月和 6 月可能保持政策利率不变。由于市场对政策利率预期更加 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 22,505 | 1. ...