近期，光伏产业链上游的关键材料——多晶硅与光伏玻璃，其价格均迎来了显著的攀升，这一现象迅速吸引了市场的广泛关注。 在9月1日这一天，多晶硅期货市场的主力合约价格飙升超过6%，与此同时，行业内的领军企业也上调了现货的报价。光伏玻璃方面，9月份的新 订单报价同样呈现出大幅上扬的趋势。这两种核心材料价格的同步上涨，无疑透露出光伏行业供需关系正在经历积极的调整。 业内专家普遍认为，随着行业自律的加强、相关公约的签署以及去产能政策的稳步推进，光伏产业链的价格涨势有望继续维持，整个行业的景气 度有望迎来回升，相关企业的盈利能力也有望得到修复。 多晶硅价格的强劲反弹，在很大程度上得益于行业自律的积极推动。9月1日，广期所多晶硅期货价格全面上涨，其中主力合约PS2511的收盘涨幅 更是达到了6.03%。据上海有色网（SMM）的数据显示，国内领先的多晶硅企业同步上调了现货报价，棒状硅的主流报价已经攀升至55元/千克， 而颗粒硅的报价也达到了49元/千克。 这一轮价格反弹的背后，是多晶硅行业自律公约的积极效应。近期，中国光伏行业协会携手多家行业领军企业共同签署了这份自律公约，旨在避 免恶性价格竞争，合理控制产能的释放。这一举措已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a positive shift in supply and demand dynamics, leading to significant price increases in key materials like polysilicon and glass, which is expected to enhance profitability for related companies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Polysilicon Market - On September 1, the main contract for polysilicon futures surged over 6%, with leading companies raising their spot prices, reflecting a strong market response [1][2]. - The mainstream price for rod silicon reached 55 yuan per kilogram, while granular silicon was priced at 49 yuan per kilogram, driven by industry self-discipline agreements aimed at avoiding price wars [2]. - The industry anticipates polysilicon prices to stabilize between 60,000 yuan and 80,000 yuan per ton, with inventory levels expected to decline [2]. Group 2: Glass Market - The price of photovoltaic glass has also seen a notable increase, with the benchmark price for 2.0mm single-layer coated glass rising to 13 yuan per square meter, up by 2 yuan from July [3]. - As of late August, the inventory of photovoltaic glass was reported at 24.02 days, indicating a healthy reduction in stock levels [3]. - If current price levels are maintained, leading manufacturers are expected to achieve profitability, while smaller firms are nearing breakeven points [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The simultaneous rise in polysilicon and glass prices indicates a temporary improvement in the supply-demand balance within the photovoltaic industry [4]. - Increased operational rates among downstream silicon wafer companies and a seasonal demand boost in the third quarter are contributing to accelerated inventory consumption [4]. - Despite recent improvements, the overall profitability of the industry remains low, with companies experiencing losses for seven consecutive quarters prior to Q4 2023 [4].

Company Analysis - Bilibili (BILI US) is expected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 7.38 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5% [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 36% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 493 million, aligning with consensus expectations [2] - The strong performance in advertising and mobile gaming is supported by a well-established commercial infrastructure, contributing to the improvement in profit margins [2] - The FY25 total revenue forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards by 1% due to a more conservative outlook for value-added services in the second half of 2025, considering intense industry competition [2] - Despite the downward adjustment, the company’s profit growth outlook remains positive due to enhanced commercialization capabilities and operational leverage [2] - The target price for Bilibili has been raised to USD 28.8 from USD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Market Overview - Global market sentiment has improved due to agreements between the US and Japan, and nearing agreements between the US and Europe, which has positively impacted Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a continuation of upward trends, led by sectors such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and financials, while industrials and utilities declined [3] - A shift in capital from new consumption to the internet sector was noted, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 1.32 billion [3] - In the A-share market, there was a pullback after reaching highs, with declines in sectors like building materials, defense, and machinery, while non-bank financials, beauty care, and home appliances saw gains [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of China's anti-involution policies, with expectations that this round of capacity reduction may affect a broader range of industries, including steel, coal, building materials, photovoltaic, new energy equipment, lithium batteries, and pig farming [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] Report's Core View - The black sector showed overall strong performance today. The market's bullish sentiment was strong due to the emphasis on "eliminating backward production capacity" at the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st. The significant increase in the risk - averse exit of short - position funds for coking coal and coke led to the rebound of their futures prices to a high level. The increase in auction transaction prices indicates that the spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized. However, the supply - demand relationship is difficult to improve in July, and the rebound is mainly driven by sentiment. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the production - capacity reduction policy [1] Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal Jm2509 closed at 843.5, a 3.56% increase compared to the opening of the day session; the main contract of coke J2509 closed at 1442.0, a 3.85% increase compared to the opening of the day session. At night, Jm2509 closed at 844.0, a 0.06% increase compared to the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1435.0, a 0.49% decrease compared to the day - session close [1] Important News - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam will impose a 20% tariff on goods exported to the US, and a 40% tariff on any transshipped goods. Vietnam has also agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [1] - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants nationwide was 59.72%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous period; the daily average output was 50.59 tons, an increase of 0.45 tons; the raw coal inventory was 312.17 tons, a decrease of 9.11 tons; the clean coal inventory was 214.98 tons, a decrease of 16.89 tons [1] - On July 2nd, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market increased by 10 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur coking clean coal with A9, S0.5, V20, G85 was 1180 yuan/ton, including cash and tax [1] - On July 2nd, the online auction prices of coking coal in the Lvliang market increased. For the medium - yang low - sulfur coking clean coal with A10.5, S0.8, G85, 0.8 tons were listed, with a starting price of 1030 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 1128 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to June 25th. For the Liulin high - sulfur coking coal with A11, S1.85 - 2.0, G85, 3 tons were listed, with a starting price of 850 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 939 yuan/ton, a 43 - yuan increase compared to June 6th. For the Xiaoyi high - sulfur coking coal with A10.5, S3.0, G85, 3.5 tons were listed on the road, with a starting price of 810 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 843 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to June 26th [1] Market Logic - The black sector was strong today. The emphasis on "eliminating backward production capacity" at the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st led to strong bullish sentiment. The significant increase in the risk - averse exit of short - position funds for coking coal and coke led to the rebound of their futures prices to a high level. The increase in auction transaction prices indicates that the spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized. However, the supply - demand relationship is difficult to improve in July, and the rebound is mainly driven by sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - At the critical node of the long - short game for coking coal and coke, the interpretation of relevant policies has a significant impact on sentiment [1]

Industry Insights - The sales data for April in the Chinese construction machinery industry shows mixed results, with non-earthmoving machinery sales fluctuating. Forklift sales remain resilient, while tower crane domestic sales have decreased by 61% year-on-year, and exports increased by 49%. Aerial work platform sales have dropped by 31% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness. The report maintains a positive outlook on earthmoving machinery due to its early recovery in project and replacement cycles [2][4]. - The report continues to favor Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH, Buy) and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH, Buy) due to their high revenue share from excavators. It also supports Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH, Buy) for its strategy of rapid expansion in emerging markets through a broad product line. Conversely, a cautious view is maintained on Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, Hold) due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [2][4]. Company Analysis - Trip.com Group (TCOM US, Buy, Target Price: $70.00) reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 13.9 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit reached RMB 4 billion, exceeding forecasts by 7%, driven by optimized sales and marketing expenses. The overall travel demand remains resilient, and the company's international expansion is progressing as planned, expected to yield long-term value [5]. - Bilibili (BILI US, Buy, Target Price: $26.50) announced Q1 2025 revenue growth of 24% to RMB 7 billion, meeting market expectations. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 362 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB 456 million in the previous year, driven by an 8% increase in gross margin and a 13% reduction in R&D expenses. The company is projected to maintain a 20% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, with further profit margin improvements anticipated [5]. - Three-Sixty Biopharmaceuticals (1530 HK, Buy, Target Price: HKD 28.32) has licensed its PD-1/VEGF candidate to Pfizer, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, along with a double-digit sales share. This deal exceeds market expectations and is expected to significantly enhance the company's profits in 2025 [6][8].

Price Data Overview - In March, CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month (previous value: -0.2%) and by 0.1% year-on-year (previous value: -0.7%), indicating a narrowing decline[2] - PPI also fell by 0.4% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and by 2.5% year-on-year (previous value: -2.2%), showing an expanded decline[2] Key Influencing Factors - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by three factors: a 3.5% decrease in domestic gasoline prices due to falling international oil prices, which contributed approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI decline[2] - Food prices fell by 1.4% month-on-month, impacting CPI by about 0.24 percentage points, with significant drops in fresh vegetables (5.1%), pork (4.4%), and eggs (3.1%)[2] - Weak terminal consumption and industrial demand continued to exert downward pressure, with service prices slightly below historical levels[2] Future Price Trends - Moving forward, tariff impacts are expected to become a significant factor in price evolution, with supply and demand dynamics shifting[2] - The interplay between excess supply and weakening domestic demand will influence price stability, while tariff shocks may lead to lower prices through increased domestic supply[2] Policy Implications - Incremental policies to counter tariff impacts will be crucial, particularly in promoting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market[2] - The effectiveness of these policies will be key in determining future price trends[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include a weakening real estate market, declining exports, and the possibility that incremental policies may not meet expectations[4] - The go-capacity policy may face tougher decisions, as the short-term pain from capacity reduction could be challenging for the domestic economy to absorb[2]