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招银国际每日投资策略-20250724
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-24 02:15
Company Analysis - Bilibili (BILI US) is expected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 7.38 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5% [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 36% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 493 million, aligning with consensus expectations [2] - The strong performance in advertising and mobile gaming is supported by a well-established commercial infrastructure, contributing to the improvement in profit margins [2] - The FY25 total revenue forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards by 1% due to a more conservative outlook for value-added services in the second half of 2025, considering intense industry competition [2] - Despite the downward adjustment, the company’s profit growth outlook remains positive due to enhanced commercialization capabilities and operational leverage [2] - The target price for Bilibili has been raised to USD 28.8 from USD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Market Overview - Global market sentiment has improved due to agreements between the US and Japan, and nearing agreements between the US and Europe, which has positively impacted Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a continuation of upward trends, led by sectors such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and financials, while industrials and utilities declined [3] - A shift in capital from new consumption to the internet sector was noted, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 1.32 billion [3] - In the A-share market, there was a pullback after reaching highs, with declines in sectors like building materials, defense, and machinery, while non-bank financials, beauty care, and home appliances saw gains [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of China's anti-involution policies, with expectations that this round of capacity reduction may affect a broader range of industries, including steel, coal, building materials, photovoltaic, new energy equipment, lithium batteries, and pig farming [3]
格林大华期货双焦早盘提示-20250703
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 02:47
研究员:纪晓云 从业资格:F3066027 交易咨询资格:Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 联系方式:010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 焦炭 | 震荡偏多 | 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2509 收于 843.5,环比日盘开盘上涨 3.56%;焦炭主力合约 J2509 收于 1442.0,环比日盘开盘上涨 3.85%。夜盘 Jm2509 收于 844.0,环比日收盘上涨 0.06%。 J2509 合约收于 1435.0,环比日收盘下跌 0.49%。 【重要资讯】 1、美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议,越南对美出口商品将被征收 20%关税,任 何转运货物将被征收 40%的关税。另外,越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。 2、本周,全国 110 家洗煤厂样本开工率为 59.72%,较上期增 0.62 个百分点;日 ...
招银国际每日投资策略-20250521
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-05-21 04:14
Industry Insights - The sales data for April in the Chinese construction machinery industry shows mixed results, with non-earthmoving machinery sales fluctuating. Forklift sales remain resilient, while tower crane domestic sales have decreased by 61% year-on-year, and exports increased by 49%. Aerial work platform sales have dropped by 31% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness. The report maintains a positive outlook on earthmoving machinery due to its early recovery in project and replacement cycles [2][4]. - The report continues to favor Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH, Buy) and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH, Buy) due to their high revenue share from excavators. It also supports Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH, Buy) for its strategy of rapid expansion in emerging markets through a broad product line. Conversely, a cautious view is maintained on Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, Hold) due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [2][4]. Company Analysis - Trip.com Group (TCOM US, Buy, Target Price: $70.00) reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 13.9 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit reached RMB 4 billion, exceeding forecasts by 7%, driven by optimized sales and marketing expenses. The overall travel demand remains resilient, and the company's international expansion is progressing as planned, expected to yield long-term value [5]. - Bilibili (BILI US, Buy, Target Price: $26.50) announced Q1 2025 revenue growth of 24% to RMB 7 billion, meeting market expectations. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 362 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB 456 million in the previous year, driven by an 8% increase in gross margin and a 13% reduction in R&D expenses. The company is projected to maintain a 20% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, with further profit margin improvements anticipated [5]. - Three-Sixty Biopharmaceuticals (1530 HK, Buy, Target Price: HKD 28.32) has licensed its PD-1/VEGF candidate to Pfizer, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, along with a double-digit sales share. This deal exceeds market expectations and is expected to significantly enhance the company's profits in 2025 [6][8].
3月物价数据点评:警惕关税带来的价格压力
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-10 13:35
Price Data Overview - In March, CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month (previous value: -0.2%) and by 0.1% year-on-year (previous value: -0.7%), indicating a narrowing decline[2] - PPI also fell by 0.4% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and by 2.5% year-on-year (previous value: -2.2%), showing an expanded decline[2] Key Influencing Factors - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by three factors: a 3.5% decrease in domestic gasoline prices due to falling international oil prices, which contributed approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI decline[2] - Food prices fell by 1.4% month-on-month, impacting CPI by about 0.24 percentage points, with significant drops in fresh vegetables (5.1%), pork (4.4%), and eggs (3.1%)[2] - Weak terminal consumption and industrial demand continued to exert downward pressure, with service prices slightly below historical levels[2] Future Price Trends - Moving forward, tariff impacts are expected to become a significant factor in price evolution, with supply and demand dynamics shifting[2] - The interplay between excess supply and weakening domestic demand will influence price stability, while tariff shocks may lead to lower prices through increased domestic supply[2] Policy Implications - Incremental policies to counter tariff impacts will be crucial, particularly in promoting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market[2] - The effectiveness of these policies will be key in determining future price trends[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include a weakening real estate market, declining exports, and the possibility that incremental policies may not meet expectations[4] - The go-capacity policy may face tougher decisions, as the short-term pain from capacity reduction could be challenging for the domestic economy to absorb[2]