宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 2 月 28 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 春节后首周人民币资产股涨债跌 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 ◼ 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.08%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.14%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 5.38%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 5.56%；股份制银行理财预期 收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率下跌 13BP 至 1.01%；十年国 债收益率下行 4BP 至 1.79%，活跃十年国债期货本周上涨 0.18%。 资产配置建议 本期观点（2026.3.1） | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注 2026 年财政政策支出力度 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注"增量"政策落实情况 | 超配 | | 债券 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The private credit industry, currently valued at $1.8 trillion, is facing pressures from increased retail fund redemptions and elevated borrower risks due to AI impacts [2] Group 1: Fund Performance - Goldman Sachs disclosed that its private credit fund's corporate software exposure is approximately 15.5%, which is lower than its peers [2] - The redemption rate for Goldman Sachs' fund in Q4 is 3.5%, below the industry average, with a 7% decline in quarterly fund inflows, which is a milder drop compared to competitors [2] Group 2: Asset Structure - Goldman Sachs' alternative credit assets in its asset management division amount to $188 billion, primarily composed of institutional funds and independent managed accounts, with 17% coming from the U.S. Business Development Company (BDC) sector [2] - The company emphasizes diversified funding sources to flexibly deploy capital throughout economic cycles, avoiding excessive reliance on retail channels to mitigate expansion and liquidity risks [2] Group 3: Risk Management - Goldman Sachs maintains strict underwriting standards and has not compromised risk control for asset expansion, acknowledging the disruptive risks posed by artificial intelligence [2] - The firm focuses on high-quality companies with critical mission workflows and proprietary data advantages, differing from some industry peers that rely heavily on annual recurring revenue and physical interest payment arrangements to reduce credit risk [2] Group 4: Market Context - There is a rising demand for redemptions from non-listed Business Development Companies, leading to outflow pressures for several industry peers [2] - Goldman Sachs' disclosure of core metrics and risk management logic aims to alleviate industry panic and highlight its asset quality and funding structure advantages [2]

Core Insights - The article introduces the "aβγδ economic power structure" model to analyze the economic dynamics of Shanghai and Hong Kong, focusing on their unique growth drivers and innovation paths in the context of digital economy [1] Group 1: α - Development Power Structure - Shanghai operates as a "scale application engine" driven by national strategy, characterized by comprehensive factor aggregation and large-scale application [3] - Hong Kong functions as a "high-value hub engine," emphasizing capital and information density, high-end services, and networked nodes [5] Group 2: β - Operational Power Structure - Shanghai's operational structure reflects a strategic collaborative governance model, integrating top-down planning with market vitality [9] - Hong Kong's operational structure is based on a rule-of-law market autonomy, prioritizing market mechanisms and transparency [10] Group 3: γ - Innovation Power Structure - Shanghai's innovation is centered around the Real Data Asset (RDA) paradigm, focusing on the integration of operational data with physical assets [14] - Hong Kong is developing a Real World Asset (RWA) framework, utilizing blockchain to enhance the liquidity and efficiency of traditional assets [17] Group 4: δ - Coupling Power and Future Trends - The future development of Shanghai and Hong Kong will be shaped by national strategies, presenting a scenario of both competition and complementarity [18] - The interrelationship between RDA and RWA will serve as a critical coupling point, facilitating a complete value cycle in the digital economy [19]

据《财经》杂志报道，香港证监会已批准德林控股两项地产 RWA 代币化产品，涉及德林证券分销 RWA 代币及德林数字家办对基金权益进行代币化发行，标的包括持有香港中环德林大厦的有限合伙基 金及一只私募股权基金。该项目为香港首个获批的地产 RWA 案例，显示在持牌监管框架下实体资产代 币化的合规路径已取得实质进展。 （来源：吴说） ...

一、市场: ●2月28日收盘：美股收跌道指跌逾500点 三大股指本周均录得跌幅 周五美股成交额靠前的公司表现不一。英伟达收跌4.16%，虽业绩超预期，但投资者担忧人工智能支出可持续性。特斯拉收跌1.49%，多家联邦机构对xAI工 具有安全担忧，而五角大楼允许其聊天机器人用于机密环境。微软收跌2.24%，重申与OpenAI合作稳固。苹果收跌3.21%，同意提高三星存储芯片价格。奈 飞收高13.77%，退出竞购被视为注重财务纪律。闪迪收跌2.54%，遭做空机构质疑估值。戴尔收高21.93%，业绩超预期且下季营收预测强劲。 ●2月28日热门中概股多数下跌 金山云涨6.98%，蔚来跌4.32% 周五油价上涨逾2%，交易商在美国与伊朗延长核谈判后，对潜在供应中断保持警惕。布伦特原油期货和纽约商品交易所4月交割的西得州中质原油期货均有 涨幅。不确定性及恐惧情绪推高油价，受伊朗核谈判及美可能军事行动影响。美伊周四间接会谈，期间因美要求伊朗零铀浓缩讨论陷入僵局致油价上涨，后 阿曼调解人表示取得进展，油价回落。双方计划下周在维也纳恢复技术讨论。因担心冲突中断供应，油价有地缘政治风险溢价。此外，阿联酋、沙特计划增 产，沙特或提高 ...

降成本增活力 今年以来，多部门陆续出台系列增量政策，支持民营企业、激发民间投资活力是其中的重要内容。记者 注意到，相关增量政策正在各地陆续落地，降低企业扩大生产、技术改造等方面的成本。 前期，人民银行宣布在支农支小再贷款项下设立民营企业再贷款，额度1万亿元。北京、安徽、浙江等 地日前落地首批民营企业再贷款。2月24日，人民银行安徽省分行发放30亿元民营企业再贷款，资金到 位后将由相关金融机构重点投向制造业、科技创新、绿色发展、乡村振兴等领域民营企业，助力民营企 业扩大生产规模、加大技术研发投入、稳定就业岗位。 民间投资专项担保计划业务也在加速落地。按照相关安排，专项担保计划额度5000亿元，分两年实施， 通过提高授信担保额度、风险分担比例和代偿上限，让银行敢贷、愿贷、多贷。政策出台后，多地迅速 行动，为相关企业提供中长期担保贷款，切实降低企业融资成本。 山东投融资担保集团发布的数据显示，截至2月13日，山东投融资担保集团与农业银行山东省分行民间 投资专项担保计划业务合作规模突破1亿元，双方将立足民间投资专项担保计划，持续扩大合作覆盖 面，重点聚焦中小企业技术改造、厂房建设，消费领域拓展改造等，持续加大支持力度 ...

美国1月生产者价格指数(PPI)涨幅高于市场预期，表明企业可能正在将进口关税带来的更高成本向下游转嫁，暗示未来数月通胀压力或 将加剧。最新的通胀数据也导致美股开盘大跌。 美国劳工统计局周五公布数据显示，美国1月PPI年率录得2.9%，预期为2.60%，前值为3.00%。美国1月PPI月率为0.5%，预期0.30%， 前值由0.50%修正为0.4%。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别，1月核心PPI同比上涨3.6%，预期3.00%，前值3.30%；环比上涨0.8%，预期0.30%，前值由0.70%修正 为0.6%。 此次PPI上涨主要由服务价格推动。数据显示，服务价格环比大涨0.8%。其中，衡量批发商和零售商利润率变化的"贸易服务"价格上涨 2.5%。专业和商业设备批发利润率更是飙升14.4%，显示企业正在将关税成本转嫁给客户。 此外，服装、鞋类及配饰零售，化学品及相关产品批发，有线通信接入服务捆绑销售，健康、美容及光学产品零售，以及食品和酒类 零售等多个领域价格也出现上涨。 由于本月初美国联邦政府短暂停摆，该报告发布时间有所延后。 从商品类别来看，1月能源价格下跌2.7%，食品价格下降1.5%。不过，剔除食品和能 ...

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January in the U.S. rose more than expected, indicating that businesses may be passing on higher costs from import tariffs to consumers, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [1][4] - The PPI year-on-year rate for January was recorded at 2.9%, exceeding the expected 2.6% and down from the previous value of 3.0% [1] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.6% year-on-year, above the expected 3.0% and previous 3.3% [3] PPI Breakdown - The monthly PPI increased by 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.3%, with the previous value revised down from 0.5% to 0.4% [1] - Core PPI month-on-month rose by 0.8%, surpassing the expected 0.3% and revised previous value of 0.6% [3] - Service prices were a significant driver of the PPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.8%, and "trade services" prices up by 2.5% [3] Sector-Specific Price Changes - Notable price increases were observed in various sectors, including clothing, footwear, chemicals, telecommunications, and health and beauty products [3] - Energy prices fell by 2.7% and food prices decreased by 1.5% in January, but core commodity prices (excluding food and energy) surged by 0.7% [4] Market Reactions - The higher-than-expected PPI data has raised concerns about inflation, potentially shifting market focus away from the disruptive impacts of AI [4][5] - Despite stock market declines, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decrease, indicating that bond investors did not view the PPI as the primary driver of market movements [5]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 瑞银全球股票策略主管安德鲁·加思韦特将一个 fully invested 全球股票投资组合中的美国股票评级下调 至"基准"，理由是美元走弱、估值过高以及华盛顿政策动荡带来的风险不断上升。 加思韦特写道，美元风险是核心关切。瑞银预计，到第一季度末，欧元将攀升至1欧元兑1.22美元，并 认为美元面临"不对称的结构性下行风险"。该银行表示，从历史来看，当美元贸易加权指数下跌10% 时，按非对冲基础计算，美国股市的表现大约会落后4%。 今年，由于美元走弱和估值更低吸引资本流向海外，外国市场的表现远超美国。MSCI世界不含美国指 数在2026年内上涨了约8%，而标普500指数的表现几乎持平。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 瑞银全球股票策略主管安德鲁·加思韦特将一个 fully invested 全球股票投资组合中的美国股票评级下调 至"基准"，理由是美元走弱、估值过高以及华盛顿政策动荡带来的风险不断上升。 加思韦特写道，美元风险是核心关切。瑞银预计，到第一季度末，欧元将攀升至1欧元兑1.22美元，并 认为美元面临" ...

智通财经APP讯，长城环亚控股(00583)发布截至2025年12月31日止年度全年业绩，集团收益1.15亿港 元，同比减少5.44%;股东应占亏损4.76亿港元，同比扩大466.12%;每股亏损30.38港仙。 ...