Core Viewpoint - Thailand's inflation rate is expected to recover from -0.14% in 2025 to 0.4% in 2026, although there are concerns about the risk of deflation due to the increasing proportion of declining prices in the consumer price index basket [1] Group 1: Inflation Recovery Factors - The recovery in inflation for 2026 is primarily influenced by a reduction in supply-side pressures, with expectations that energy prices will decrease alongside international market prices, leading domestic diesel retail prices to potentially fall below 30 Thai Baht per liter [1] - Prices of vegetables and fruits are anticipated to rise slightly, which will mitigate the downward pressure on inflation [1] Group 2: Core Inflation Trends - The core inflation rate is expected to remain positive but with a slower growth rate, as prices for various goods, particularly finished food products, non-alcoholic beverages, and seasonings, are projected to increase, albeit at a reduced pace [1] - This slowdown in price increases aligns with the weak purchasing power of domestic consumers [1] Group 3: Historical Context - In 2025, Thailand's inflation rate recorded a -0.14%, marking the first annual negative growth in nearly five years [1] - By December 2025, the inflation rate had been in negative territory for nine consecutive months, although the decline narrowed from -0.49% in November to -0.28% in December [1]

Core Insights - 37% of Americans reported an increase in holiday shopping debt this year, with average debt rising from $1,181 last year to $1,223 this year [1] - The increase in debt is attributed to rising tariffs and prices, which have strained household budgets, particularly during the holiday season [1] - 63% of borrowers expect to take three months or longer to repay their debts, and about 41% are still repaying last year's debt [1] - High credit card interest rates, currently averaging over 20%, pose a significant concern for borrowers who may take six months to a year or longer to repay their debts [1] - Consumer sentiment has become increasingly pessimistic, with the consumer confidence index dropping to 89.1, the lowest level since April, due to negative perceptions of the business environment and concerns over employment and income [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, driven by macroeconomic concerns and policy expectations, with forecasts suggesting further increases in the coming years [3][11]. Group 1: Precious Metal Price Trends - On December 24, spot gold reached an all-time high of $4,510 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 71% [3]. - International precious metal futures saw widespread increases, with spot silver surpassing $70 per ounce. COMEX gold futures rose by 0.68% to $4,536.3 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.07% to $71.9 per ounce, both hitting historical highs [5]. - Additionally, spot palladium broke through $1,900 per ounce, reaching its highest level since the end of 2022 [7]. Group 2: Economic Commentary and Forecasts - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, stated that the surge in precious metal prices is justified, attributing it to the U.S. lagging behind global trends in interest rate cuts [8]. - President Trump expressed his views on the Federal Reserve, indicating that he hopes the new chair will lower rates in favorable market conditions, rather than disrupt the market without cause [9]. - Goldman Sachs projected that gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [10]. - Yardeni Research significantly raised its gold price forecast, now expecting it to reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from a previous estimate of $5,000 per ounce, and reiterated a long-term view of $10,000 per ounce by the end of the decade [11].

Core Viewpoint - International silver prices reached a historic high, with London silver quoted at $69.02 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 4.58% and a year-to-date rise of over 139% [1] - Domestic silver futures in China also surged, breaking the 16,000 yuan per kilogram barrier, currently priced at 16,126 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 2.30% daily increase and a year-to-date rise of over 114% [1] Group 1 - On December 22, London silver opened at $67.55, peaked at $69.42, and closed at $66.00, indicating significant volatility in the market [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange announced restrictions on trading behavior for silver futures contracts, limiting the maximum number of day trades for non-futures company members and special overseas participants to 10,000 lots starting December 24, 2025 [2] - The trading fees for silver futures contracts were adjusted, with the fee for AG2602 contract set at 0.025% of the transaction amount and for AG2604 contract at 0.005% [2] Group 2 - Prior adjustments included an increase in the price fluctuation limit for AG2602 contract from 14% to 15% and an increase in margin requirements for holding positions [3] - Market analysis indicated that the U.S. November CPI exceeded expectations, leading to revised market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, which in turn strengthened prices of precious metals like gold and silver [3] - The importance of basic raw materials for economic development is increasingly recognized by various countries, leading to the use of tariffs to secure these products, further driving prices upward [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than the market expectation of 3.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%, marking the lowest level since March 2021 [1] - The White House's National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, indicated that the CPI report reflects a favorable scenario of high growth and low inflation, suggesting significant room for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since September 2021 [1] - A report from Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the unemployment rate has increased for three consecutive months, surpassing a historical warning threshold, which typically leads to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within 6-12 months [1] - Industrial research from Industrial Bank supports this view, stating that ongoing employment pressure and declining inflation could prompt the market to anticipate earlier interest rate cuts [1] Market Expectations - Following the CPI data release, traders estimated a 28.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in January [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, increasing it from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the highest level in 30 years [1] - The increase in interest rates is aimed at controlling inflation but will also raise mortgage burdens for households and negatively impact investments [1] - The rise in interest rates will lead to higher corporate bond issuance rates, which is unfavorable for both housing and investment [1] Group 2 - Following the interest rate hike, the 10-year government bond yield in Tokyo exceeded 2%, indicating a significant impact on long-term interest rates [2] - The increase in interest rates will exacerbate the burden of interest payments on Japan's government debt, which exceeds twice the GDP [4] - The Japanese government decided to issue over 11 trillion yen in additional bonds due to significant fiscal shortfalls, which may further increase long-term interest rates [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Kasikorn Research Center indicates that Thailand's total import value is expected to grow by 10.3% in 2025, while there is a risk of a 1.2% decline in export value in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Import and Export Trends - Thailand's total export value growth slowed to 5.7% in October, with electronic products, including computers and mobile phones, being the main export drivers, although their growth rate decreased to 38.8% [1] - The export value of gold experienced a significant decline of 76.9% year-on-year in October, marking the first contraction in three months, which negatively impacted the overall export growth rate by -6.3% [1] - The Kasikorn Research Center maintains its forecast for a total export value growth of 11.0% for the entire year of 2025, anticipating a slowdown in the last two months of the year due to increased tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The report projects that Thailand's total import value will increase by 10.3% in 2025, but there is a risk of a 0.8% decline in import value in 2026, aligning with the expected downward trend in export values [2]

Group 1 - The "Renmin Index" is a platform developed by Renmin University of China to integrate research and policy advisory services across various disciplines, covering economics, finance, governance, ecology, and technology [1] - The Tianfu China Financial Index (TFFI) evaluates the comprehensive financial development level of 36 central cities in China, promoting mutual understanding and differentiated competition among these cities [1] - The TFFI has been published for nine consecutive periods and includes innovative sub-indices based on nine dimensions such as financial markets, institutions, environment, human resources, technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [1] Group 2 - The Yangtze River Economic Belt Green Innovation Development Index assesses the overall development level and competitiveness of 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the field of green innovation [2] - Since its first release in 2021, the report aims to promote high-quality regional development by integrating green innovation with innovation-driven strategies [2] - The report provides data support and decision-making basis for local governments while offering scientific guidance for optimizing green innovation policies [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is experiencing a perplexing phenomenon where a slowdown in hiring coexists with high worker productivity and strong GDP growth, creating challenges for policymakers [1][2][3] Group 1: Employment Trends - U.S. companies have significantly slowed down hiring, with an average of only about 62,000 new jobs added over the last three months as of September [1] - The labor market has faced challenges due to major policy changes affecting labor supply and demand, particularly in trade and immigration [2] - There is uncertainty about whether interest rate cuts can offset the negative effects of these policy changes on hiring [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Productivity - Despite weak job creation, GDP remains strong, with consumer spending supporting corporate profit levels [2] - Businesses are investing heavily in new technologies, including artificial intelligence, which may lead to reduced spending in other areas such as hiring [2] - The resilience of the economy is attributed to robust consumer behavior and significant investments in AI, yet this has not translated into expected job growth [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Challenges - The divergence between strong economic growth and weak job creation complicates policy decisions for the Federal Reserve, leading to a complex environment for monetary policy [1][3] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed hesitation about further interest rate cuts unless there is clear evidence of inflation decreasing or the labor market cooling [3] - The potential for a disconnect between GDP performance and employment growth poses risks for the U.S. economy, with warnings that continued strong growth without job expansion could lead to recession [3]

Core Viewpoint - The diplomatic dispute between China and Japan, along with concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook and comments from Prime Minister Kishi, has led to increased market activity in "sell Japan" trades, resulting in significant declines in Japanese stocks and bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.2%, marking the largest single-day drop since April 9 [1]. - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.68%, the highest level since 2007 [1]. - Investor sentiment is deteriorating due to uncertainties surrounding the government's fiscal situation and the strained relationship with China, fueling the "sell Japan" trend [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Japan's economy, already weakened by U.S. tariffs and declining real estate investments, faces additional uncertainty due to the diplomatic dispute triggered by Prime Minister Kishi's comments [3]. - The number of Chinese tourists, who accounted for approximately 5.7 million visitors or nearly 23% of all foreign tourists to Japan this year, is expected to decline, impacting the tourism sector [3]. - Economic forecasts suggest that the ongoing tensions could lead to a contraction in Japan's GDP by 1.79 trillion yen, equivalent to a decrease of 0.29% within a year [3]. Group 3: Recent Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [4].