Group 1 - The report highlights that the US ISM services index fell to 50.1 in July, indicating a near stagnation in the services sector [9][11] - The report notes that the US trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June, the lowest level in 2023, with imports decreasing by 3.7% and exports dropping by 0.5% [11] - AMD reported adjusted earnings of $899 million for Q2, which fell short of expectations, although the company anticipates AI revenue to reach at least several billion dollars for the year [11][24] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was reported at 49.2, indicating a continued deterioration in the business environment, although the rate of decline has slowed [13] - The Chinese services PMI rose to 52.6 in July, the highest in 14 months, surpassing expectations [13] - China Tower's net profit for the first half of the year increased by 8% to 5.8 billion yuan, with revenue rising by 2.8% to 49.6 billion yuan [13] Group 3 - Lenovo is positioned to benefit from a wave of corporate upgrades as Windows 10 support ends in October 2025, with IDC forecasting a 4.3% increase in commercial PC shipments [21] - Alibaba's Hema retail platform is shutting down its membership store business, indicating a strategic shift to focus on its core operations [13] - The report recommends buying shares of Lenovo at a target price of $12.72, citing its leading market share in AI PCs [21]

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index fell by 403 points, or 1.6%, closing at 24,773 points[1] - Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 42 points, or 1.18%, closing at 3,573 points[2] - S&P 500 decreased by 23 points, or 0.4%, closing at 6,339 points, marking the third consecutive day of decline[2] Currency and Economic Indicators - Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 39.25 billion during New York session due to a weak HKD[1] - People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of CNY 283.2 billion at a steady rate of 1.4%[2] - July's official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3, below expectations[2] Real Estate and Corporate Performance - Top 100 real estate companies in China reported total sales of CNY 2.07 trillion in the first seven months, a year-on-year decline of 13.3%[4] - Internet and related services companies in China generated revenue of CNY 961.3 billion in H1, a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[4] - Sinopec expects H1 2025 net profit to be between CNY 20.1 billion and CNY 21.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of 39.5% to 43.7%[6] Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors delivered 36,717 smart electric vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 229%[7] - Cumulative deliveries exceeded 800,000 units as of July, with a total of 233,906 units delivered in the first seven months, marking a 270% year-on-year growth[7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces short-term resistance at 25,735 points, with limited corporate profit improvement and a lack of strong economic stimulus from mainland China [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market indicates a relatively positive risk appetite, with capital rotating among different sectors [2] - The U.S. and China have initiated a new round of trade negotiations, agreeing to extend the 90-day tariff truce reached in mid-May [2] Macro Focus - China's official manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3, falling short of expectations and indicating contraction for four consecutive months [11] - Hong Kong's GDP for Q2 is estimated to grow by 3.1%, surpassing expectations, while retail sales growth in June was below expectations at 0.7% [12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in July, with expectations of two rate cuts this year, totaling 0.5 percentage points [6] Company News - Tencent Holdings (0700) is leveraging gaming as a key driver for breakthroughs in AI technology [5] - Prosus has initiated a reduction of its stake in Meituan (3690), cashing out nearly 2 billion yuan in the past two weeks [5] - XPeng Motors (9868) reported a 2.3-fold increase in July deliveries, setting a new monthly record [5] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (0386) issued a profit warning, expecting a drop of at least 40% in first-half earnings [5] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,773, down 1.6%, with a year-to-date increase of 23.5% [7] - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market increased by 82% year-on-year, reaching 2,402 billion [12] - The number of new IPOs in Hong Kong surged, with 42 new listings raising a total of 107.1 billion, a sevenfold increase compared to the previous year [12]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with expectations [9] - The US GDP for Q2 grew by 3%, surpassing expectations, primarily due to a significant increase in net exports [11] - The A-share market shows strong revaluation momentum, with the CSI 300 index's historical PE and PB ratios at 12.3x and 1.24x, respectively, indicating a cheap valuation [9][11] Market Focus and Strategy - The A-share market is expected to have long-term value due to favorable policies, despite potential short-term adjustments [9] - Recommendations include gradually accumulating A-share ETFs due to valuation re-evaluation [9] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a significant drop, closing at 25,176 points, with analysts suggesting it may breach the 25,000 mark [13] Company Highlights - Meta Platforms Inc. reported a 36% year-on-year increase in net profit and a 22% rise in revenue for Q2, exceeding expectations [11] - HSBC has a pessimistic outlook on Hong Kong's commercial real estate, increasing provisions significantly [13] - The company Giant Bio (2367) is positioned as a leader in the collagen market, with a projected market size of 108.3 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Economic Data Overview - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, with PCE inflation at 2.1% [11] - China's manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.7, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.2, suggesting slight expansion [19] - Hong Kong's GDP growth for Q2 is reported at 2.8% year-on-year [19] Stock Recommendations - Buy recommendation for Giant Bio at $57.10, with a target price of $66.20 and a stop-loss at $54.72 [21] - Starbucks Corporation reported Q3 revenue of $9.456 billion, a 3.8% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [23] - FTAI Aviation Ltd. saw a 52.4% year-on-year revenue increase to $676 million, indicating strong growth potential [24]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to stable economic performance in mainland China during the first half of the year, with limited willingness to implement further economic stimulus measures and modest corporate profit improvements [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market reflects a positive risk appetite, with capital rotating across different sectors [2] - The initiation of a new round of trade negotiations between China and the US, along with the extension of the 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement, has contributed to a more favorable outlook for the Hang Seng Index [2] Company News - JD Group (9618) has made a takeover offer to European electronics retailer Ceconomy [4] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (3750) reported a 33% increase in interim profit, exceeding expectations [4] - HSBC Holdings (0005) reported a 27% decline in pre-tax profit, falling short of expectations, and announced a $3 billion share buyback [4] - Prada (1913) saw a slight increase of less than 1% in half-year profit, which was below expectations [4] - WuXi AppTec (2359) is raising approximately 7.7 billion yuan through a discounted share placement [4] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with indications that they are not prepared to cut rates yet, despite a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, with a cautious outlook on future inflation [4] - The US is engaged in trade negotiations with multiple countries, with some progress reported, although uncertainties remain [4] Macro Focus - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October, focusing on economic development and strategic planning for the next five years [8] - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in China's economic resilience and potential [8] - The Chinese government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption [9] Investment Insights - The report highlights the potential for investment in sectors such as construction, brokerage, and export-oriented companies due to ongoing trade negotiations and infrastructure projects [7] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and addressing economic challenges presents opportunities for companies involved in consumer goods and services [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to a stable economic outlook in mainland China and a postponement of tariffs by the US [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market indicates a positive risk appetite, with capital rotating among different sectors [2] Short-term Sector Outlook - Focus on upcoming economic indicators including the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Q2 GDP, and earnings reports from major companies such as HSBC and Budweiser [3] Macro Focus - The IMF has slightly raised its global growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, predicting a 4.8% growth for China this year [4][9] - The US and China are expected to hold another round of trade talks within approximately 90 days, pending approval from President Trump [4][9] Corporate News - Baoshan International has issued a profit warning, expecting a 44% drop in interim profits [5][11] - Huaneng Power International reported a 23% increase in net profit for the first half of the year, exceeding expectations [5][11] - Ideal Automotive launched its second pure electric vehicle, priced starting at 320,000 RMB [5][11] International Market Outlook - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating a cautious approach towards future inflation uncertainties [6] - The ongoing trade negotiations are affecting oil demand growth, with OPEC+ increasing supply to limit international oil price increases [6] Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524 points, with a year-to-date increase of 27.24% [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33% to close at 3,610 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.70% [6] Commodity and Currency Market - The CRB Commodity Index increased by 0.81% year-to-date, while gold prices rose by 0.36% [6] - The US Dollar Index showed a slight increase of 0.26% year-to-date [6] Company Earnings Forecasts - China Ruyi Holdings expects to turn a profit for the first half of the year, projecting a net profit of approximately 1 to 1.2 billion RMB [11] - Huaneng Power International's revenue for the first half of the year was reported at 112.03 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year [11]

Market Overview - The US stock market reached record highs last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% and up 28% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq rose 1.3% and is up 38% for the year [10] - The Hang Seng Index has risen for three consecutive weeks, gaining 1,472 points (+6.16%), but is expected to consolidate at high levels due to overbought technical indicators [8][10] - The onshore RMB reached a nearly 9-month high at around 6.92, indicating significant capital inflows [8] Economic Indicators - The US is expected to release July non-farm payroll data, with a forecast increase of 102,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in the previous month [10] - The preliminary estimate for Q2 GDP is expected to show a 3% year-on-year increase, significantly better than the 0.5% contraction in Q1 [10] - The core PCE price index is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [10] Company Focus - Major tech companies including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are set to announce their quarterly earnings this week, with market attention on whether AI capital expenditures will yield returns [8][10] - The report highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with significant inflows into traditional high-yield stocks and local real estate stocks [12] - The report notes that the stock of Miniso (9896) is recommended for purchase, leveraging its global expansion and operational efficiency [20] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector is highlighted, with China National Pharmaceutical Group (1099) benefiting from favorable government policies and holding a 33.3% market share in China's pharmaceutical distribution market [20] - The report mentions the performance of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX), which reported a 20.05% year-on-year revenue increase to $2.173 billion, exceeding market expectations [22]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive market sentiment following the trade agreement between the US and EU, contributing to new record highs in US stock indices [9][11] - The report notes that while US stock indices are reaching new highs, there are warnings from Goldman Sachs about accumulating short-term risks in the market [11] - The report discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, emphasizing the importance of outcomes for market stability [11][14] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 173 points (0.7%), while the Hang Seng Tech Index recorded three consecutive declines [14] - The report indicates that Hong Kong's exports have increased for 16 consecutive months, with June's export value reaching HKD 417.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [14] - The report mentions that the MSCI China Index's 12-month target has been raised from 85 to 90 points, indicating an 11% upside potential [14] Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying Kowloon Warehouse Holdings (1997) due to its stable cash flow from core assets in Hong Kong [22] - It suggests that AIA Group (1299) is benefiting from increased demand from mainland visitors and local market recovery, with a notable growth in new business value [22] - Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is highlighted as a leading industrial logistics REIT with a market capitalization exceeding USD 100 billion [24] Economic Data - The report outlines key economic data releases, including US wholesale and retail inventory figures for June, and the FHFA House Price Index for May [21] - It notes that the US Treasury Department estimates a debt issuance of USD 1.007 trillion for the third quarter, an increase of USD 453 billion from previous estimates [11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to continue rising to 25,800-26,000 next week, with a support level at 24,600 and a resistance level at 25,894 [1] - Technical signals indicate a "strong buy" for the semiconductor sector, with a potential price target of 56-60 HKD for SMIC [3] - China Southern Airlines has recently broken through its previous high, with a key resistance level at 6.19 HKD [6] Group 2: Individual Stock Analysis - Ganfeng Lithium is showing a gradual upward trend, with a support level at 27 HKD and a resistance level at 33.6 HKD, potentially reaching 35 HKD [9] - Alibaba's stock is currently viewed as a buying opportunity, with a target of 130 HKD and support levels at 112.3 HKD and 105.7 HKD [12] - AAC Technologies has a neutral technical signal, with resistance levels at 41.2 HKD and 42.5 HKD, indicating a lack of clear direction [15]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) has shown a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 100 HKD, with a closing price of 99.7 HKD, indicating a "strong buy" signal. The first resistance level is at 101 HKD, and the second at 106 HKD [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is above the 10-day moving average of 97.62 HKD and the 30-day moving average of 95.05 HKD. The MACD indicator shows a golden cross, and the Bollinger Bands indicate an upward trend. However, the RSI has reached 75, entering the overbought zone, suggesting a potential need for consolidation before testing the 101.1 HKD resistance level [1][3]. - Key support is at 96.5 HKD, with a potential drop to 93.2 HKD if this level is breached. The important resistance level is at 101.1 HKD, with a possible test of 106.2 HKD upon a breakout [3]. Derivative Products - In the options market, several products are available, including the China Bank call option (16930) with a leverage of 15.5 times and an exercise price of 115.98 HKD, and the UBS call option (16458) with a leverage of 14.9 times, also at 115.98 HKD. There are also UBS call options (14280) with a higher leverage of 26 times and an exercise price of 107 HKD, expiring in September [6][10]. - UBS bull certificates (56446) and JPMorgan bull certificates (56622) offer 11 times actual leverage with a redemption price of 88 HKD. On the bearish side, UBS bear certificates (60586) provide 14.4 times leverage with a redemption price of 105 HKD, while Citibank bear certificates (58283) offer 16.1 times leverage, also with a redemption price of 105 HKD [10][11]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently stable, with a 3.3% five-day volatility, and the stock price is positioned in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands. The market sentiment reflects a mix of buy signals from the bull-bear power indicator, while the stochastic oscillator shows signs of overbought conditions, indicating potential short-term fluctuations [3][14].