本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：敖翀 拜俊飞 刘宇飞 刚果（金）政府于9月20日更新钴出口政策，2025年刚果（金）钴出口禁令延期至10月15日，2026-2027 年钴出口配额仅为年产量的44%。钴出口配额制显示出刚果（金）政府控制全球钴价的决心，我们预计 政府会通过灵活地调节钴供应量来长期稳定钴价，这有利于全球钴产业的健康发展。我们预计刚果 （金）出口配额政策将导致2025-2027年全球钴供应量远低于正常水平，供应短缺量分别为12.2/8.8/9.7 万吨，钴价有望强势上涨。我们预计布局印尼钴冶炼的公司以及在刚果（金）拥有矿山的公司将充分受 益于钴价上涨。 ▍事件： 据彭博社，刚果（金）政府在9月20日公布2025-2027年的钴出口配额，延长钴出口禁令。 ▍刚果（金）政府延长出口禁令，并实施出口配额政策。 刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管与控制局（ARECOMS）将出口禁令从9月22日延长至10月15日，并计划 在10月16日之后实行出口配额制度，我们认为出口政策的变化符合市场预期。出口配额制度并不适用于 三种公司：2024年钴出口量少于100吨钴的企业（刚果钴总公司EGC除外）、拥有钴精炼厂但过去 ...

股票代码：603799 股票简称：华友钴业 公告编号：2025-106 ● 最后转股日：2025年9月26日 截至2025年9月22日收市后，距离2025年9月26日（"华友转债"最后转股日）仅剩4个交易日，2025年9月 26日为"华友转债"最后一个转股日。 ● 本次提前赎回完成后，"华友转债"将自2025年9月29日起在上海证券交易所摘牌。 ● 投资者所持"华友转债"除在规定时限内通过二级市场继续交易或按照34.43元/股的转股价格进行转股 外，仅能选择以100元/张的票面价格加当期应计利息0.8918元/张（即合计100.8918元/张）被强制赎回。 若被强制赎回，可能面临较大投资损失。 ● 公司特提醒"华友转债"持有人注意在限期内转股或卖出。 转债代码：113641 转债简称：华友转债 浙江华友钴业股份有限公司 关于实施"华友转债"赎回暨摘牌的第十一次提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 截至2025年9月22日收市后，距离2025年9月23日（"华友转债"最后交易日）仅剩1个交易 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 9月22日，腾远钴业发布公告称，公司于近日收到控股股东、实际控制人罗洁女士、谢福 标先生、吴阳红先生关于不减持公司股份的承诺函。基于对公司未来发展前景的信心以及对公司价值的 认可，为促进公司持续、稳定、健康发展，切实维护广大投资者利益，同时为增强广大投资者信心，罗 洁女士、谢福标先生、吴阳红先生就持有的腾远钴业股份不减持事宜做出如下承诺：截至本公告披露 日，罗洁女士持有公司股份66，093，066股，占总股本22.43%；谢福标先生持有公司股份30，546， 602股，占总股本10.36%；吴阳红先生持有公司股份15，035，366股，占总股本5.10%；三人合计持有 公司股份111，675，034股，占公司总股本的37.89%，是腾远钴业的控股股东、实际控制人。罗洁女 士、谢福标先生、吴阳红先生承诺自2025年9月22日起12个月内不以任何方式减持所持有的"腾远钴 业"股票，包括承诺期间该部分股份因资本公积转增、派送股票红利等事项产生的新增股份。若违反上 述承诺，则减持股份所得全部收益归公司所有。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that cobalt prices have shown significant fluctuations due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with a 58% increase from February 24 to June 20, followed by a 6% increase from June 20 to September 18 [1] - The DRC's export ban has led to high inventory levels in the cobalt industry outside the DRC, and weak downstream demand during the off-peak season has contributed to the limited price increase after the ban was extended [1][2] - China's imports of cobalt raw materials from the DRC have significantly decreased since June, with imports dropping by 61%, 30%, and 64% from June to August, leading to only 9% of the average import level in August [2] Group 2 - The DRC's measures to control cobalt exports aim to boost prices and prevent low-cost outflows of strategic resources, while also enhancing the country's international influence [3] - The DRC is developing a quota system to manage supply, which is expected to systematically elevate the price center of cobalt and secure long-term strategic benefits for its resources [3] - Domestic demand for cobalt is expected to improve, potentially leading to continued inventory reduction and upward pressure on cobalt prices [2]

腾远钴业（301219）(301219.SZ)发布公告，公司于近日收到控股股东、实际控制人罗洁女士、谢福标 先生、吴阳红先生关于不减持公司股份的承诺函。罗洁女士、谢福标先生、吴阳红先生承诺自2025年9 月22日起12个月内不以任何方式减持所持有的"腾远钴业"股票，包括承诺期间该部分股份因资本公积转 增、派送股票红利等事项产生的新增股份。若违反上述承诺，则减持股份所得全部收益归公司所有。 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 基于对公司未来发展前景的信心以及对公司价值的认可，为促进公司持续、稳定、健康发展，切实维护 广大投资者利益，同时增强投资者信心，罗洁女士、谢福标先生、吴阳红先生做出不减持承诺。自2025 年9月22日起12个月内，三人不以任何方式减持所持有的"腾远钴业"股票，包括承诺期间该部分股份因 资本公积转增、派送股票红利等事项产生的新增股份。若违反上述承诺，减持股 份所得全部收益归公 司所有。 公司董事会表示，将督促控股股东严格遵守承诺，并按照《公司法》《证券法》以及中国证监会、深圳 证券交易所的相关规定，及时履行信息披露义务。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 点击查看公告原文>> 责任编辑 ...

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is currently facing significant changes due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export quota system, which will be implemented on October 15, 2025, limiting exports to less than 50% of last year's production of 220,000 tons, resulting in an export quota of approximately 100,000 tons [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Trends**: Domestic spot cobalt prices have risen from 270,000 yuan to nearly 300,000 yuan, with expectations to reach 400,000 yuan, indicating a potential increase of 35% to 50% [2][3]. - **Supply Tightness**: The DRC's export ban will exacerbate global cobalt supply tightness, with the first shipments not expected to arrive in China until late January 2026. Industry inventory is projected to be fully consumed by the end of this year or early next year, maintaining high cobalt prices [1][3][4]. - **Production Declines**: In August, China's imports of cobalt intermediates dropped by 90% year-on-year, and domestic production of cobalt and cobalt sulfate also saw significant declines of 50% and 26% respectively [5]. - **Future Supply Expectations**: If the current steel and hardware policies continue into 2026-2027, cobalt supply will remain tight next year. The U.S. has announced a procurement of 7,500 tons of cobalt for strategic reserves, impacting metal demand significantly, although market reactions have been muted [6][7]. Investment Opportunities - **Recommended Companies**: Companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin are favored due to their operations outside the DRC, benefiting from supply stability in Indonesia. DRC-related companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Hanrui Cobalt, and Tengyuan Cobalt are expected to see performance improvements as prices rise [7][12]. - **Huayou Cobalt's Performance**: Huayou Cobalt has 180,000 tons of nickel production capacity in Indonesia, with expected shipments of 120,000 metal tons in the first half of 2025, translating to approximately 24,000 tons of cobalt production. The company is also positioned to benefit from inventory gains due to its significant cobalt salt production capacity [9][11]. Price Forecasts - **2025 and 2026 Price Expectations**: The average cobalt price for 2025 is expected to be around 200,000 yuan, while in 2026, prices are likely to exceed 300,000 yuan, with a potential increase of over 50% year-on-year [8][13]. Additional Insights - **Nickel Price Impact**: Current nickel prices are low, but potential closures of nickel plants in Indonesia could stimulate price increases, which would enhance company performance [10]. - **Overall Market Outlook**: The overall outlook for the cobalt market remains positive, particularly for Huayou Cobalt, with expectations of significant profit contributions from rising prices [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to fluctuations in copper prices, with a focus on demand during the peak season of September and October [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a potential extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could accelerate the depletion of raw material inventories [4] - Lithium prices are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. retail sales for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [8] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the upper limit of the benchmark rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a decline of 4.02% compared to a 1.30% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is 23.96, down by 0.80 from the previous week, while the PB_LF valuation is 2.87, down by 0.09 [19] 3. Copper - Copper prices saw a decline, with LME copper down 0.85% and SHFE copper down 1.42% [24] - Domestic copper inventories increased by 12.50%, indicating a potential oversupply [24] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased, with LME aluminum down 0.43% and SHFE aluminum down 1.00% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing a profit margin squeeze, with profits down to 4,793 CNY/ton [35] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.45% to 73,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 2.02% to 859 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium prices may have bottomed out and are expected to recover [74] 6. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.93% to 16.30 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.84% to 277,000 CNY/ton [86] - The potential extension of the DRC's cobalt export ban could lead to a significant price rebound [86]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a major supplier of diamond resources globally, and since February 2025, it has implemented an export ban on diamond products, significantly disrupting the supply side [1][3]. - The DRC's export ban, which began on February 22, 2025, has led to a substantial decline in China's diamond imports, with volumes dropping from 1.9 thousand tons in June to 0.52 thousand tons in August, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05% respectively [3][4]. - It is estimated that global effective diamond supply will decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons due to the DRC's export suspension lasting seven months [3]. - Demand for diamonds is expected to grow steadily, particularly in emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy and robotics, with a projected increase of 5.06% in diamond demand to 210,900 tons in 2025 [3][6]. - The price of diamonds has risen from a historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton since the DRC's export restrictions were enacted, indicating a strong upward trend in diamond prices [3][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's export restrictions are expected to tighten supply, leading to a forecasted diamond price increase in the short term [3]. - The DRC's government has a clear stance on controlling diamond supply, making it unlikely for export restrictions to be lifted in the near future [3]. Company Valuation - Key companies in the diamond sector include Huayou Cobalt, Tongyuan Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, Liqin Resources, and Hanrui Cobalt, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report rates the cobalt industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][12]. Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the primary supplier of cobalt globally, and since February 2025, it has implemented an export ban on cobalt products, significantly disrupting supply [3]. - The DRC's export ban has led to a noticeable decline in China's cobalt imports from June to August 2025, with import volumes dropping by 61.62%, 27.26%, and 62.05% respectively [3]. - It is projected that global effective cobalt supply will decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons in 2025 due to the DRC's export restrictions [3]. - Demand for cobalt is expected to grow steadily, particularly in the battery sector, with a projected increase of 5.06% in cobalt demand to 210,900 tons in 2025 [3]. - Cobalt prices have risen from a historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton since the DRC's export restrictions began, with expectations for continued price increases in the short term [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's export ban is expected to tighten supply, leading to a projected global cobalt supply of 185,000 tons in 2025, down from 282,000 tons [3][6]. - The demand for cobalt in the battery sector is anticipated to grow, with total cobalt demand reaching 210,900 tons in 2025, driven by applications in drones and consumer electronics [3][6]. Price Outlook - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to supply constraints, with a strong long-term price support anticipated from the DRC's government policies [3][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with profit elasticity in the cobalt sector, including Huayou Cobalt, Tongyuan Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, Liqin Resources, and Hanrui Cobalt [3][7].