Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant declines on November 21, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropping by 2.38%, 3.21%, and 2.45% respectively, influenced by the downturn in global markets and concerns over liquidity and AI bubble risks [4][6][9] - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 285.7 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 10 million [4] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks such as Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent saw declines of nearly 6%, 4.65%, and 1.77% respectively, reflecting the overall market sentiment [9] - The semiconductor sector also faced significant losses, with stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor dropping by 6.39% and 6.09% respectively [11] Gold and Lithium Sectors - The decline in interest rate expectations led to a drop in international gold prices, with COMEX gold futures falling to approximately USD 4040 per ounce, resulting in declines for gold stocks such as China Silver Group and WanGuo Gold, which fell by 6.25% and 5.61% respectively [13][14] - Lithium stocks were heavily impacted, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium experiencing declines of 12.47% and 11.93% respectively, amid changes in trading fees for lithium futures [17][18] Analyst Insights - According to招商证券, the market's previous expectations of several marginal benefits are gradually being realized, which is shifting market sentiment towards optimism. The firm suggests focusing on AI and technology stocks, as well as sectors benefiting from overseas power shortages [20][21] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the electric power sector due to increasing demand driven by AI development, alongside opportunities in non-ferrous metals due to global easing and inflation expectations [21]

消息面上，11月以来，碳酸锂期货主力合约持续发力上涨。11月20日，广期所发布公告，调整碳酸锂期 货相关合约交易手续费标准及交易限额。11月21日早盘，碳酸锂期货主力合约跌超7%，报92960元/ 吨。华泰期货认为，前期行情主要由碳酸锂供需基本面推动，伴随资金逐步入场，近期更多体现为资金 面对价格的驱动，推动涨势加速。 大和近日发布研报称，对明年锂价上行空间仍抱保守看法。该行预测明年锂价将维持于每吨7.5万至9万 元人民币区间，较当前的每吨8.5万元水平上行空间有限，相信中国锂价于今年第四季至明年第一季仍 然偏软，主要由于农历新年需求疲弱及全球电动车迎来淡季。 赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)低开逾6%，截至发稿，跌6.1%，报54.6港元，成交额2098.88万港元。 ...

11月20日，永杉锂业跌0.81%，成交额11.44亿元。两融数据显示，当日永杉锂业获融资买入额1.09亿 元，融资偿还8626.57万元，融资净买入2277.16万元。截至11月20日，永杉锂业融资融券余额合计2.96 亿元。 融资方面，永杉锂业当日融资买入1.09亿元。当前融资余额2.96亿元，占流通市值的4.69%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，锦州永杉锂业股份有限公司位于辽宁省凌海市大有乡双庙农场，成立日期2003年6月18日， 上市日期2012年8月24日，公司主营业务涉及钼产品业务、锂产品业务和影视业务。主营业务收入构成 为：钼产品收入74.02%，锂产品收入25.33%，其他(补充)0.65%。 截至9月30日，永杉锂业股东户数4.78万，较上期增加7.58%；人均流通股10727股，较上期减少7.04%。 2025年1月-9月，永杉锂业实现营业收入39.32亿元，同比减少17.02%；归母净利润-1.63亿元，同比减少 421.90%。 分红方面，永杉锂业A股上市后累计派现2.82亿元。近三年，累计派现2.07亿元。 融券方面，永杉锂业11月20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed meeting minutes showed significant differences among participants regarding the December interest - rate decision. Many thought it was not suitable to cut rates in December, while some were concerned about the disorderly decline of the stock market. The "new Fed newswire" believed that a slight majority of policymakers were uneasy about a December rate cut [8][23]. - For precious metals, the long - term upward trend of gold and silver is certain, but the short - term prices are volatile. Gold should be bought on dips, and silver may reach a new high this year if the macro - sentiment is favorable [9][10]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have been following the decline of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil, and the long - term strength reversal of low - sulfur fuel oil should be watched out for [11]. - PX supply is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and the planned reduction of South Korea's GS disproportionation unit, and its price has risen [12]. - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is strong, but the risk of a price correction in the first - quarter demand off - season should be noted [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Meeting and Macro - news - The Fed meeting minutes revealed that participants had different views on the December policy decision. Some thought a rate cut in December might be appropriate, many preferred to keep rates unchanged this year. Most believed that rate cuts in the context of high inflation and a cooling job market could exacerbate inflation risks. Almost all supported ending the balance - sheet reduction in December, and many supported increasing the proportion of short - term debt holdings [8]. - U.S. economic data is missing after the government shutdown, which has reduced the December rate - cut expectations. The 10 - month non - farm payroll report will not be released, and the 11 - month report is rescheduled to December 16 [10]. 3.2 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold: The price has been affected by the change in rate - cut expectations. The recent fundamentals show that the price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 937.00 with a daily increase of 2.01%, and the night - session price was 935.42 with a 0.53% increase. The overall trend is that the long - term is upward, but short - term fluctuations are large [9][10][20]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 12141 with a daily increase of 3.81%, and the night - session price was 12035.00 with a 0.63% increase. The spot supply is tight, and there is potential for a new high [9][10][20]. 3.3 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot trading was active in November, but the premium remained low. With the end of refinery maintenance in the Middle East, the supply is expected to increase, and it will be under pressure in the Asia - Pacific region [11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It has been strengthening recently due to ongoing refinery maintenance in Brazil, Japan, etc., and the high cracking spread of European gasoline and diesel. However, as overseas refineries return to operation in mid - November, there is a risk of price decline [11]. 3.4 PX - The supply of PX is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and the planned reduction of South Korea's GS disproportionation unit. The price has risen, and operations such as 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene hedging are recommended [12]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term trend is strong, but the industry is still in the de - stocking cycle. The spot trading is light, and downstream acceptance of high - price lithium salts is low. In the medium - term, the risk of price correction in the first - quarter off - season should be noted [13][48]. 3.6 Other Commodities - Copper: The price lacks a clear driver and is in a state of shock. The fundamentals show that the price of Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 86110 with a 0.53% daily increase [24]. - Zinc: LME inventories have increased. The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22420 with a 0.49% daily increase [27]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limits the price decline. The price of Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17250 with a 0.12% daily increase [30]. - Tin: The price has fallen from a high level. The price of Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 288890 with a - 0.51% daily increase [34]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 21570 [39]. - Nickel: The price has broken through the support level and is under pressure. The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 115650 [42]. - Stainless steel: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but the downside space is limited. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12335 [43]. - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to short on rallies. The price of Si2601 closed at 9390 [52]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when the positive - arbitrage funds leave the market. The price of PS2601 closed at 54625 [52]. - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The price of the iron - ore futures contract closed at 791.5 [55]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of RB2601 closed at 3070, and the price of HC2601 closed at 3277 [58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5462, and the price of silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5642 [62]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of JM2601 closed at 1139.5, and the price of J2601 closed at 1639 [65]. - Logs: The price fluctuates repeatedly [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - **MEG**: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - **PP**: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - **Urea**: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - **Sugar**: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - **Pigs**: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a rebound after three consecutive declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index slightly rising, while the Shenzhen Component Index remained flat. The total trading volume in the two markets was 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous period, with nearly 4,200 stocks declining [1]. ETF Performance - The leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 3.27%, closing with a gain of 2.48%. The chemical ETF (516020) also rose by over 1%. The non-ferrous metal sector led the market, attracting significant capital inflow, with the leading non-ferrous metal ETF accumulating 1.96 billion yuan over three days [3][4]. - The largest bank ETF (512800) rose nearly 1%, recovering above all moving averages, indicating a strong medium to long-term trend [8][10]. Sector Highlights - The non-ferrous metal sector attracted over 8.2 billion yuan in net inflow, making it the top sector in terms of capital absorption among 31 primary industries. Key stocks in this sector, such as Zhongjin Gold and Tianqi Lithium, saw significant price increases, with Zhongjin Gold rising over 8% [6][7]. - The banking sector showed strong performance, with China Bank surging 3.81%, marking its largest single-day gain in a year and reaching a historical high. Other banks like Everbright Bank and Ping An Bank also saw gains of nearly 2% [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market environment favors a "barbell strategy," balancing value and growth styles to capture excess returns in advantageous sectors. The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to perform well due to rising demand and supply constraints, with projections indicating a potential bull market in 2026 [3][7][12]. - The banking sector is benefiting from low valuations and high dividend yields, which are becoming increasingly attractive amid year-end risk aversion. The upcoming mid-term dividend distributions from banks are expected to further enhance their appeal to investors [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market with a net inflow of over 8.2 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the sector's future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has attracted significant capital, ranking first among 31 primary industries in terms of capital inflow [1]. - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) showed strong activity, with an intraday increase of 3.27% and a closing rise of 2.48%, with a total trading volume of 39.9 million yuan [1]. - Over the past three days, the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF has accumulated a total of 196 million yuan, reflecting bullish sentiment from large investors [1]. Group 2: Key Stocks Performance - Major gold stocks led the gains, with Zhongjin Gold rising by 8.76%, Chifeng Gold by 7.00%, and Shandong Gold by 5.98% [3]. - Lithium sector leaders also performed well, with Tianqi Lithium increasing by over 6%, and Ganfeng Lithium and Tibet Mining both rising by more than 3% [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - In the gold market, the Shanghai gold futures contract surged over 1%, approaching 940 yuan per gram, with potential for gold prices to exceed 5,000 USD per ounce next year [1][2]. - In the lithium market, lithium carbonate futures broke through the 100,000 yuan mark, with predictions of prices potentially reaching 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton by 2026 due to demand growth [2]. - The outlook for basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin is optimistic, with expectations of a strong performance in 2026 driven by emerging demands in AI, energy, and high-end manufacturing [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector's performance while mitigating risks associated with individual metal investments [4].

据悉，今年7月，中国碳酸锂价格曾受益于"反内卷"行情并迎来一波上涨，此后行情逐渐降温。而自10月 中旬以来，碳酸锂价格上涨行情再度启动，中国碳酸锂期货主力合约自低点71000元/吨左右上涨超过 40%。 智通财经APP获悉，受益于碳酸锂价格复苏，锂业巨头智利矿业化工(SQM.US)在2025年第三季度实现了 盈利增长。财报显示，智利矿业化工Q3营收为11.73亿美元，较上年同期的10.77亿美元增长8.9%。毛利 润为3.46亿美元，较上年同期的2.81亿美元增长23.1%。调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为4.04亿 美元，较上年同期的3.27亿美元增长23.5%。净利润为1.78亿美元，较上年同期的1.31亿美元增长35.8%。 | | | | For the nine months ended | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | For the 3rd quarter | | September 30, | | | (US$ millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | | Profit for the Period ...

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-October, lithium carbonate prices have experienced a significant upward trend, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - By 2025, global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach approximately 1.45 million tons, but due to increased demand in the second half of the year, the forecast has been updated to 1.55 million tons, with supply capacity around 1.7 million tons, indicating a surplus of about 200,000 tons [1] - In 2026, lithium carbonate demand is expected to grow by 30%, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is anticipated to increase by around 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not keep pace, causing prices to potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [1] Price Dynamics - The high prices of lithium carbonate may suppress downstream purchasing willingness, particularly as the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has surged over 200% in four months, impacting the profitability of downstream companies [2] - Current price dynamics show a linkage effect within the industry chain, with rising prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and lithium carbonate driving each other [2] - The recovery of lithium prices has led to an increase in lithium salt exports from Chile and Australia, which may help alleviate domestic lithium resource shortages [2] Production and Inventory Insights - In September, lithium carbonate imports decreased by 10.3% to 19,596.9 tons, while exports plummeted by 59.12% to 150.816 tons; domestic production in October was 51,530 tons, reflecting a 9.31% increase, but the operating rate fell by 5 percentage points to 43%, indicating constraints in domestic capacity release [3] - By the end of December, supply tightness is expected to support the rise in lithium carbonate prices [4] Long-term Price Outlook - In the medium to long term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton, with 70,000 yuan/ton having clear cost and demand support, while 100,000 yuan/ton corresponds to the price level for the resumption of Australian mines [5] - From 2025 to 2030, the global lithium carbonate market is likely to maintain a surplus, with the supply surplus expected to narrow from 2025 to 2026 [5] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to become a new demand driver from 2025 to 2027, alongside steady growth in the power market [5] Key Demand Drivers - The sustainability of energy storage demand in 2026 will be crucial for influencing the prices of lithium carbonate and other raw materials [6] - The primary growth regions for the global energy storage market will remain in China, the United States, and Europe, with emerging regions like the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia also expected to increase storage demand [6] - Global energy storage demand is projected to grow by approximately 63% year-on-year in 2025, with a potential slowdown to a 15% increase in 2026, and a compound annual growth rate of around 15% from 2026 to 2030 [6]

碳酸锂市场正迎来一轮由需求驱动的新涨势。与今年第三季度那波涨势不同的是，以往碳酸锂价格大涨 多受供给端扰动影响，而这一轮则与需求端爆发密切相关。 自10月中旬起，碳酸锂主力合约价格持续拉升，至11月17日已突破9万元/吨大关，当日盘中最大涨幅达 8.5%，一个月内吨价上涨逾两万元。A股方面，今日截至午间收盘，盛新锂能、融捷股份涨停，天齐锂 业、永兴材料、赣锋锂业分别上涨8.62%、7.45%、6.55%。 铜冠金源期货11月17日分析称，从多头视角来看，枧下窝矿短期暂无复产预期，供给端存在增量瓶颈。 而动力终端需求强劲，库存持续加速去化，碳酸锂基本面向好。同时，在政策指引以及产业大额订单烘 托下，储能需求预期被点燃，基本面格局将迎来逆转。 华泰期货研报称，百川统计的磷酸铁锂产量环比增加3.15%，三元材料环比增加0.51%，钴酸锂环比增 加0.09%，锰酸锂环比降低0.33%，下游排产维持高位，动力电池领域订单充足，储能项目需求持续超 预期，磷酸铁锂企业开工率维持在高位，六氟磷酸锂订单情况好，产能较为紧张。 此外，昨日赣锋锂业董事长李良彬对行业的研判也备受资本市场关注。 11月16日，在第十届动力电池应用国际 ...