Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with all three major indices dropping over 3.4%, indicating a phase of market adjustment as the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3900 points [4]. Market Performance - A total of 305 stocks rose, while the market showed a broad decline with a涨跌停比 of 38:14, reflecting a significant contraction in market profitability [5][6]. - Key sectors such as computing hardware, AI applications, cloud computing, consumer electronics, semiconductors, cybersecurity, commercial aerospace, fintech, humanoid robots, gold, basic metals, aviation, tourism, agriculture, brokerage, and real estate saw notable declines, while coal stocks performed positively [6]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume across both markets reached 4.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.33%, indicating heightened trading activity despite the index adjustments [7]. Capital Flow - There was a net outflow of funds from institutional investors, while retail investors showed a net inflow, indicating contrasting strategies between the two groups [8]. - Institutions displayed a cautious approach, reducing positions in most sectors while selectively allocating to undervalued defensive sectors, focusing on managing exposure to market volatility [9]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investors adopted a reverse strategy, actively participating in the market with significant net inflows, primarily focusing on buying on dips and optimizing their holdings [9].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The coking coal market showed a high - opening and high - closing trend and hit the daily limit. Despite the increase in domestic coal production and high同比 production and operation, downstream procurement was active. Energy substitution and downstream recovery in the peak season drove up the price of coking coal, but short - term market risks increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and closed at the daily limit. Domestic coal mines' production recovery continued, with the current domestic mine operation rate reaching 87.16%, a 4.84% increase from last week. Production and operation were both higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement was active, with mine inventories decreasing by 23.59 tons, coke enterprises' inventories increasing by 35.6 tons, and steel mills' inventories decreasing by 3.7 tons. With the peak season approaching, downstream enterprises started to build up inventories, coke production increased, steel mills' profitability recovered, and the operation rate increased by 1.29%. The weekly daily output of hot metal was 2.2815 million tons. Coking enterprises were expected to raise prices. The Middle - East situation heated up, and the price of coking coal followed the increase in crude oil prices [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal was 1,114 yuan/ton, a 34 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu was 1,320 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,289.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 30.5 yuan/ton, a 98.5 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply Data - From March 14th to March 20th, the operation rate of 523 sample domestic mines for coking coal was 88.59%, a 1.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The average daily output of refined coking coal was 79.81 tons, a 2.11 - ton increase from the previous period [4]. 3.3.2 Demand Data - From March 14th to March 20th, the average daily output of downstream independent coke enterprises was 64.24 tons, a 0.34 - ton increase from the previous period. The average daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.31 tons, a 0.31 - ton increase from the previous period. The average daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 2.2815 million tons, a 695,000 - ton increase from the previous period [5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a low opening and wide fluctuations on March 23, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3858 points. Key sectors such as coal, nuclear power, and passenger vehicles performed well, while precious metals, hotel and restaurant, tourism, and components sectors lagged [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.36 times and 47.34 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][14]. - The total trading volume for both markets reached 24,485 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][14]. - The main pressure on the market is attributed to overseas factors, particularly the potential escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, which could lead to rising oil prices and increased global stagflation pressures. Additionally, if U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts or even raise rates, impacting global liquidity and risk appetite [3][14]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies are becoming clearer, providing a solid support base for the market. The central bank has indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, and various regulatory bodies are actively working to ensure market stability [3][14]. - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as electricity, photovoltaic equipment, automobiles, and coal [3][14].

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3813.28 points, down 3.63%, and briefly falling below the 3800-point mark. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw declines of 3.76% and 3.49%, respectively, indicating a widespread market downturn driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][5] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.45 trillion yuan, a notable increase from 2.30 trillion yuan in the previous trading day, reflecting heightened trading activity amid panic selling. Only 305 stocks rose, while 5170 stocks fell, showcasing a clear bearish sentiment [2][5] Sector Performance - The coal sector was the only one to show a slight increase of 0.35%, while the oil and petrochemical sector fell by 0.22%. The rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude stabilizing above $100 per barrel, is expected to lead to an increase in domestic fuel prices, benefiting the coal and oil sectors [5] - The agricultural sector saw the largest decline, dropping 5.49%, while the defense and military sector fell by 4.89%, indicating a broad-based sell-off across sectors [5] Global Market Impact - Major global stock markets also faced significant declines, with the Korean Composite Index down 6.49% and the Nikkei 225 down 3.48%, reflecting the impact of geopolitical risks on global equities. The small-cap stocks faced severe pressure, with the Wind Microcap Index dropping 6.42%, indicating a shift in market focus towards safety and stability [7] Bond Market - The bond market exhibited a mixed performance, with the 30-year government bond futures rising by 0.07% to close at 110.71 yuan, while the 10-year futures fell by 0.09%. The overall trend in the bond market remains weak due to tightening liquidity expectations and inflation concerns [12] Commodity Market - The commodity index rose by 0.63%, driven by strong performance in energy and chemical products, while precious metals experienced significant declines. Key commodities such as propylene and butadiene rubber saw increases of 12.44% and 11.99%, respectively, while precious metals like silver and platinum fell by over 11% [9][16] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, consumer upgrades, brokerage firms, precious metals, and energy chemicals, with a focus on monitoring developments in these sectors for potential investment opportunities [13][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure investment is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The iron ore price shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. In the medium to long term, new capacity will make the fundamentals looser, and macro - demand is under pressure both at home and abroad [25] - The short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal has intensified, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [42] - The support for ferroalloys has strengthened, but the demand from steel mills is weak, and the silicon - manganese inventory is at a historical high with great de - stocking pressure [57] - The supply pressure of soda ash persists, and the price trend may be affected by other sectors and macro - factors, with limited upward and downward space [69] - The price of float glass fluctuates due to the combined effects of supply, demand, and cost factors [91] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro Data**: In January - February, the new construction area of real estate was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%, and the single - month steel consumption was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The decline trend has begun to stabilize. The automobile production in January - February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The steel consumption in the automotive industry decreased for two consecutive months. The infrastructure investment completion in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year [4][6][8] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts on March 23, 2026, showed certain changes compared with March 20. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had corresponding changes [10][15] - **Price Ratios**: The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 on March 23, 2026 [22] Iron Ore - **Price Situation**: The price shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The cost - end support comes from high - level crude oil and fuel shortage. The global shipping volume has marginally recovered, and the molten iron output has increased with the resumption of production by steel mills. The inventory at ports is being depleted slowly, and the structural shortage of spot goods supports the price. In the medium to long term, new capacity will make the fundamentals looser, and macro - demand is under pressure both at home and abroad [25] - **Price Data**: On March 23, 2026, the 01, 05, and 09 contract closing prices of iron ore were 762.5, 819, and 786.5 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [26][30] - **Fundamental Data**: On March 20, 2026, the daily average molten iron output was 228,150 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.2097 million tons, and other data such as global shipping volume, port inventory, and steel mill inventory also showed certain changes [37] Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high, and the price decline of Australian coal has narrowed the domestic - foreign price difference, intensifying the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. The price increase of coke chemical products has improved profits, and the operating rate is expected to increase. However, the profit pressure of downstream steel products has dragged down the resumption of molten iron production, and the supply - demand contradiction may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [42] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price differences and spot prices of coking coal and coke on March 23, 2026, showed certain changes compared with previous days, and the corresponding profit data also changed [43][44][45] Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The Australian hurricane has disturbed the shipping of manganese ore, and miners' price - holding has pushed up the manganese ore price. The strong coking coal provides cost support, enhancing the downward support for ferroalloys. The output of ferrosilicon has increased, while the output of silicomanganese remains low. The profitability of steel mills is limited, providing weak support for the demand for ferroalloys. The silicomanganese inventory is at a historical high, with great de - stocking pressure, and the manganese ore disturbance amplifies the price fluctuations [57] - **Data**: The daily data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese on March 23, 2026, showed changes in basis, price differences, and spot prices compared with previous days [58][60][61] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The daily production remains at a high level, the supply pressure persists, the rigid demand is stable but weak, the inventory performance is better than expected, and there is room for replenishment in the middle - stream, but the limited demand elasticity restricts the upward amplitude. The downward space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In the medium to long term, the high - level supply expectation remains unchanged, and the industrial contradiction needs further accumulation. The price trend may be affected by other sectors and macro - factors, and the upward and downward space is difficult to open up for the time being [69] - **Price Data**: On March 23, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash increased compared with March 20, and the price differences and basis also changed [70][71] Float Glass - **Market Situation**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, the daily melting volume has declined, the middle - stream inventory is relatively high, and there is a risk of negative feedback. The supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase. The demand needs to be verified. The increase in the price of petroleum coke at the cost end provides support, and the macro - sentiment and fluctuations in related sectors have a driving effect. The price fluctuates under the combined action of supply, demand, and cost [91] - **Price and Sales Data**: On March 23, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass increased compared with March 20, and the price differences, basis, and daily sales data also showed certain changes [92][94]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets showed a stable and slightly stronger trend. On Friday, an individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase, with the price of wet - quenched coke rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on March 23. The price of coking coal at the raw material end was generally strong, market transactions were active, most coal prices increased, and sentiment improved. The cost support for coking enterprises strengthened, and there was a clear growth expectation for molten iron, leading to better coke demand [2]. - The downstream inventory of coking coal is generally high, so the restocking intensity is limited, and the import of Mongolian coal is high. There is still real pressure on the fundamentals of coking coal, and the room for further increase in spot prices is limited. Currently, the futures price is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and delivery pressure. If the geopolitical conflict escalates, the futures may be strong; if the delivery pressure is large, the futures may run weakly. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets were stable and slightly stronger. A coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated a price increase for coke, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton from March 23. Coking coal prices were strong, transactions were active, and cost support for coking enterprises strengthened. There was a growth expectation for molten iron and better coke demand [2]. - In the future, due to high downstream coking coal inventory and high Mongolian coal imports, there is pressure on coking coal fundamentals, and the room for spot price increase is limited. The futures price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and delivery pressure, and is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The total coking coal inventory was 2043.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29.3 million tons (1.45%); the total coke inventory was 981.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.82 million tons (- 0.29%); the daily average molten iron output of steel mills was 221.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.95 million tons (3.14%); the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 38 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton (- 1366.67%) [4]. Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: There is a 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke main contracts [6]. - **Spot Market Review**: There are charts of the average price of various coking coal types and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian main coking coal [6]. Fundamental Data - There are charts related to coking coal, including daily output of clean coal from mines and coal washing plants, Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port, coking coal inventory of steel mills, independent coking enterprises and ports, and coking coal inventory available days for steel mills and independent coking enterprises [12][14]. - There are charts related to coke, including daily output of coke from steel mills and independent coking enterprises, daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, coke inventory of steel mills, independent coking enterprises and ports, coke inventory available days for steel mills, profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills [18][21][22].

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The core variable affecting the market remains the Middle East, with both short-term trading logic and long-term "stagflation risk" expectations dependent on whether the geopolitical conflict can be resolved quickly [1][5] - Until uncertainties in the geopolitical situation decrease or commodity price volatility declines, the market will continue to be impacted by event narratives and liquidity shocks, leading to a focus on long-term expectations [5][6] - A-shares are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with structural opportunities being more prominent than overall opportunities; recommended sectors include energy-related stocks (oil, green energy, coal, coal chemical), low valuation and low volatility stocks (state-owned banks, utilities), and sectors that can maintain high prosperity independent of geopolitical and oil price influences (energy storage, domestic AIDC) [1][5][6] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market showed significant differentiation between short and long ends, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 2.00 basis points to 1.26%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields increased by 1.56 basis points to 1.83% and 2.16 basis points to 2.39%, respectively [2][7] - The current bond market is in a volatile state, with extreme risk aversion driving down short-end yields, while long-end yields are rising due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and heightened inflation expectations [7][8] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on short-end credit products showing strong allocation value; however, long-end yields have limited downward momentum, and liquidity may face certain shocks as the quarter-end approaches [2][7] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with average daily trading volume at 22,091 billion, a decrease from the previous week; the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant drop in global risk assets [4][5] - Funds are shifting from macro-sensitive cyclical sectors to technology manufacturing sectors with independent growth logic, driven by multiple industry benefits such as the overseas GTC conference and price increases in cloud computing and storage products [4][5] - Resource cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals are under pressure, primarily due to external macroeconomic impacts, including rising oil prices and concerns over the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that the price of thermal coal in China will be between 750 to 800 RMB per ton for the full year of 2026, with price increases expected during the summer replenishment window in May and June, influenced by high international energy prices and fluctuations in Indonesian supply [2] Price Forecast - The projected prices for QHD5500 coal from 2026 to 2028 are 750 RMB, 720 RMB, and 670 RMB per ton, reflecting a tightening global energy market and slight impacts from Indonesia's quota reductions [2] Company Ratings - China Shenhua (601088.SH) and China Shenhua (01088) have target prices set at 48.6 RMB and 48 HKD respectively, with a "Neutral" rating [2] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) has a target price of 11.4 HKD, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) has a target price of 22.8 RMB, both maintaining a "Sell" rating due to current stock prices exceeding fundamental valuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy recently indicated that the thermal coal market is showing a steady yet slightly strong trend due to various factors including decreased load at end-user power plants, reduced coal supply, and low port inventories [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In February, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports reached 748 RMB/ton, an increase of 52 RMB/ton, or 7.5% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - In March, the thermal coal market is expected to exhibit an overall balanced and narrow fluctuation trend due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, weak overall coal demand, slow recovery of domestic supply, and a slight rebound in port inventories [1] - The expected price fluctuation range for port thermal coal spot prices is between 720 and 760 RMB/ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy Company Limited has received approval to issue debt financing tools totaling up to RMB 40 billion, with a resolution valid until December 31, 2027 [1] Group 1: Debt Financing Authorization - The company’s annual general meeting approved the proposal to continue granting general authorization for issuing debt financing tools [1] - The approved debt financing tools include, but are not limited to, medium-term notes [1] Group 2: Medium-Term Notes Registration - The company has received a registration notice from the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, allowing it to register medium-term notes amounting to RMB 5 billion [1] - The registration is valid for two years from the date of the notice, and the company can issue medium-term notes in installments during this period [1] - The joint lead underwriters for the medium-term notes are CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and CITIC Bank [1]