1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PX - PTA industry chain faces triple pressures of cost collapse (weak crude oil), weakening supply - demand, and inventory reconstruction, and there is a risk of a further downward shift in the price center in November. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term, with insufficient price rebound momentum [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On October 17, the PX main contract closed at 6,292.0 yuan/ton, down 1.32% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 59.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,402.0 yuan/ton, down 1.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 42.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on October 17, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.02 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 56.95 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on October 17, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 871.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 857.0 million meters [2]. - On the supply side, there is an expectation of loose supply for PX and PTA. For PX, the pressure of new domestic device production in the fourth quarter is limited, but the restart of some large - scale devices and the high - load operation of existing devices may increase the overall supply. For PTA, the supply will increase marginally, but the compression of processing fees may lead to the maintenance of high - cost devices [2]. - On the demand side, the negative feedback pressure is gradually emerging. Polyester manufacturers have implemented production reduction plans, and the risk of a decline in weaving orders after Double Eleven is increasing. The terminal polyester demand may be further pressured, and the marginal consumption of PTA is weakening [3]. - On the inventory side, PTA factory inventories may turn to accumulation. It is expected that PTA will enter the inventory accumulation cycle in November, and the inventory cycle switch and weak demand may suppress the repair space of PTA processing fees [3]. Polyester - On October 17, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,036.0 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,290.0 yuan/ton, down 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 254.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The terminal textile demand has no significant increase. The inventory of polyester staple fiber has decreased but is still higher than the five - year average, and the inventory days of polyester filament are significantly higher than the five - year average. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term, and the high inventory of polyester will suppress the downstream restocking willingness [4][5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.32%, the trading volume decreased by 17.04%, and the open interest increased by 3.24%. PX spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis increased by 58.74% [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.21%, the trading volume decreased by 11.14%, and the open interest increased by 0.39%. PTA spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis increased by 56.25% [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.92%, the trading volume increased by 12.79%, and the open interest increased by 0.75%. The spot price decreased by 0.24%, and the basis increased by 19.25% [6]. - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI, and some other products remained unchanged, while the prices of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, and some polyester filaments decreased [6]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of PTA increased slightly, while those of most polyester products decreased [7]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume increased by 4.69%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics increasing by 1.08% and that of short - fiber fabrics increasing by 18.13% [7]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7]. - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber decreased by 19.39%, while those of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY increased [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - Multiple views on the Fed's interest - rate cuts were expressed, including calls for different magnitudes of cuts and concerns about the policy path due to government shutdowns. There were also statements about the gold market and inflation data [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 17, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 871.0 million meters, a 4.69% increase from the previous day, with 657.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 215.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9].

、责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我可将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 直纺短纤负荷(周) 93.90% 94. 40% 0. 01 涤纶短纤产销 79.00% 81.00% 2. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 63. 50% 63. 50% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51.00% 51. 50% 0. 01 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 宏興宗德■ T325纯漆炒价格 (器比) 照日后 (石井) 条短现金流 =1.4D直线大提 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 + 300 ...

Group 1 - The core direction for Jilin City's development is to strengthen the foundation of the real economy, promote the transformation of traditional industries, enhance advantageous industries, and cultivate new productive forces [1][2] - Jilin City is focusing on the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, with significant investments such as the 33.9 billion yuan project by PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical, which aims to transition from refining to chemicals and high-end materials [2][3] - The steel industry in Jilin City is undergoing a shift from "incremental development" to "reduction and optimization," with companies like Jilin Jianlong Steel receiving support for digital transformation and intelligent upgrades [3][5] Group 2 - Jilin City is actively fostering new industries by emphasizing independent innovation, with a focus on converting scientific achievements into practical applications, resulting in 206 local technology transformations and a 22.9% increase in technology contract transaction volume [6] - The first International Conference on Urban Low-altitude Transportation was held in Jilin City, highlighting the interest in carbon fiber cooperation, particularly from Jilin Chemical Fiber Group, which is expanding its market through partnerships with low-altitude economy enterprises [6] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's industrial added value has increased from 31.3 trillion yuan to 40.5 trillion yuan, showcasing the country's manufacturing strength and the importance of the real economy as a pillar of national prosperity [6]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of maintaining a strong real economy while promoting the transformation of traditional industries and the cultivation of new productive forces in Jilin Province [1][2] - Jilin City, historically an industrial hub, faces challenges due to its heavy reliance on traditional industries and competition issues, but is now focusing on high-quality development through innovation and enterprise support [2][3] - The transformation project by PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical, with a total investment of 33.9 billion, aims to shift from refining to chemicals and high-end materials, marking a significant step in the city's industrial upgrade [2][3] Group 2 - Traditional industries in Jilin City are undergoing upgrades to foster new productive forces, with a focus on revitalizing older enterprises through digital and intelligent transformations [3][4] - Jilin Jianlong Steel is adapting to the steel industry's shift from growth to optimization, utilizing expert consultations and funding for digital transformation, resulting in a 17.1% increase in hot-rolling efficiency [3] - Jilin City is actively promoting innovation by aligning technology transfer with enterprise needs, achieving 206 local technology transfers and a 22.9% increase in technology contract transaction value this year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) are marginally improving, with prices expected to continue rising due to strong demand recovery and tight supply conditions [1][3] - The domestic production capacity of LiPF6 is concentrated among a few companies, which are likely to benefit from price increases and improved profitability [2] - The lithium-ion battery materials sector is experiencing robust demand growth, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, indicating a broad demand outlook [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market operating rate for LiPF6 is 75.43%, with most manufacturers operating at full capacity, leading to a supply shortage [1] - As of October 17, 2025, LiPF6 prices have risen to 75,000 CNY/ton, marking a 16.3% increase from the previous week and a 20.0% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Production Capacity - China's LiPF6 production capacity stands at 442,900 tons/year, with effective capacity at 389,400 tons/year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [2] - Major producers include Tianqi Lithium, Dongyue Group, and others, with significant expansions planned for 2025-2027 [2] Market Demand - The energy storage sector saw a cumulative bidding scale of 211.11 GWh from January to August 2025, with new installations reaching 21.9 GW/55.2 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 69.4% and 76.6% respectively [3] - In the electric vehicle sector, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are supported by trading volume and are in a low - level oscillation with limited downside space [1]. - The trend strength of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime session of the main contract futures price fluctuation is neutral, with a value of 0 [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: - Futures prices of short - fiber 2511, 2512, and 2601 increased by 44, 42, and 24 respectively compared to the previous day. PF11 - 12 increased by 2, PF12 - 01 increased by 18, and the main contract basis decreased by 42. - The main contract's open interest increased by 156,786 to 276,286, and the trading volume increased by 140,234 to 187,340. The production - sales ratio increased by 33% to 79%. The spot price in East China remained unchanged at 6,305 [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: - Futures prices of bottle - chip 2511, 2512, and 2601 increased by 34, 36, and 44 respectively compared to the previous day. PR11 - 12 decreased by 2, PR12 - 01 decreased by 8, and the main contract basis decreased by 16. - The main contract's open interest increased by 11,316 to 35,207, and the trading volume increased by 19,029 to 42,764. The spot price in East China increased by 20 to 5,650, and in South China increased by 30 to 5,680 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Futures prices oscillated upwards. Some trade discounts were reduced, and many traders held back sales due to low inventory. Factory quotes remained stable, and sales improved with an average production - sales ratio of 79% by 3:00 pm. Downstream pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn quotes remained stable, but sales were average [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: Upstream raw material futures prices rose, and some polyester bottle - chip factories raised prices by 20 - 50 yuan. Market trading was fair, and some factories raised quotes after increased trading volume in the afternoon. Orders from October to December were mainly traded at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some trade prices slightly lower at 5,560 - 5,590 yuan/ton ex - factory and slightly higher at 5,730 - 5,750 yuan/ton ex - factory [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report PTA - PTA device maintenance led to a slight decline in starting - up, polyester load increased month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulated, and basis remained weak with low - level spot processing fees. PX domestic start - up increased, overseas devices restarted, PXN widened month - on - month, disproportionation efficiency remained stable while isomerization efficiency weakened, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widened. TA may have additional production cuts and production plans, but considering no unexpected performance of polyester, the far - month is expected to accumulate inventory. After the valuation is repaired month - on - month, the far - month processing fee is relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [1]. MEG - Near - end domestic oil - based start - up remained stable, coal - based restarted, overall load increased to a high level, there was some maintenance overseas, port inventory accumulated significantly at the beginning of next week due to increased arrivals during the holiday and dull shipments, basis strengthened slightly, and the efficiency ratio further shrank. With the existing start - up reaching a relatively high level and new device commissioning, it will enter a continuous inventory - accumulation stage, but after the coal - based efficiency and ratio weaken, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based cost at the lower end [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Some devices were under maintenance, some increased load, start - up decreased to 94.3%, sales volume decreased month - on - month, and inventory increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking increased, finished product inventory remained stable month - on - month, and efficiency was weak. Considering the high - level finished product inventory of polyester yarn, the speed of increasing load may slow down. Although the spot efficiency of staple fiber is good and start - up remains high, inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [7]. Natural Rubber - National warehouse inventory remained stable at an absolute level, Thai cup - lump rubber price remained stable, and there was rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs PTA - From January to October 2025, data such as PTA spot price, PX price, PTA processing fee, polyester load, etc. were presented. For example, on January 1st, 2025, the PTA spot price was 4490, and the PX price was 6595. The average daily spot basis was 2601(- 83). Yisheng New Materials increased its load by 3.6 million tons [1]. MEG - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, data on MEG price, profit, load, and inventory were provided. For example, on October 10th, 2025, the MEG domestic price was 4206, and the port inventory was 77.7. The basis was around 01(+ 64). Shell's 400,000 - ton device was under maintenance [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - From October 1st to 1st (it seems there is a data presentation problem here, presumably multiple days in October), data on staple fiber price, profit, load, etc. were given. The spot price was around 6302, and the market basis was around 11 + 40. Xinjiang Jianshanli was under maintenance, and Zhejiang Huaxing increased its load, with start - up decreasing to 94.3% [7]. Natural Rubber - From October 1st to 16th, 2025, data on natural rubber price, processing profit, and price difference were presented. For example, on October 1st, 2025, the Shanghai full - latex price was 14730. The strategy is to wait and see [7]. Styrene - related Products - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, data on the price of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and their production profits and start - up rates were provided. For example, on October 10th, 2025, the pure benzene (CFR China) price was 5740 [7].

Group 1: PTA Market Core View - Proximal TA maintenance led to a slight decline in PTA operation rate, while polyester load increased month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulated, basis remained weak, and spot processing fees stayed at a low level. PX domestic operation rate rose, overseas units restarted, PXN widened month - on - month, disproportionation efficiency remained stable while isomerization efficiency weakened, and the aromatics price spread between the US and Asia widened. In the future, TA may have additional production cuts and production plans, but considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester, the far - month inventory accumulation is expected. After the valuation is repaired month - on - month, the far - month processing fees are relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [1]. Key Points - The average daily trading basis of PTA main contract 2601 was - 85. The 3.6 - million - ton Yisheng New Materials increased its operation rate [1]. Group 2: MEG Market Core View - Proximal domestic oil - based operation rate remained stable, coal - based units restarted, and the overall load rose to a high level. There were some overseas maintenance. After the holiday, the port arrivals increased while the shipments were dull, and the port inventory accumulated significantly at the beginning of next week. The basis strengthened slightly, and the benefit ratio further shrank. In the future, with the existing operation rate reaching a high level and new units being put into production, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, after the coal - based benefits and ratios weaken, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based production costs [7]. Key Points - The MEG spot trading basis was around + 64 for the 01 contract. Shell's 400,000 - ton unit was under maintenance [7]. Group 3: Polyester Staple Fiber Market Core View - The Xinjiang Jianshanli unit was under maintenance, Zhejiang Huaxing increased its operation rate, the operation rate dropped to 94.3%, the production and sales weakened month - on - month, and the inventory accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking continued, the finished product inventory remained stable month - on - month, and the benefits were weak. In the future, due to the high - level finished product inventory of polyester yarn, the speed of increasing the operation rate may slow down. Although the spot benefits of staple fiber are acceptable and the operation rate remains high, the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fees are expected to fluctuate [7]. Key Points - The spot price was around 6293, and the market basis was around + 60 for the 11 contract [7]. Group 4: Natural Rubber Market Core View - The national explicit inventory remained stable at an absolute level. The price of Thai cup rubber remained stable, and there was rainfall. The strategy was to wait and see [7]. Key Points - There were detailed price data for various types of natural rubber such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, etc. from October 9 - 15, 2025 [7]. Group 5: Styrene and Related Products Market Core View - There were price changes in various products such as ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc., and profit changes in products like ABS, EPS, PS. The production and operation rates of related products also showed certain trends [7]. Key Points - There were daily price changes and profit data for products including ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, ABS, EPS, PS from October 9 - 15, 2025 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up has slightly declined, the polyester load has increased month - on - month, the inventory has slightly accumulated, and the basis has remained weak. The domestic PX start - up has increased, overseas plants have also restarted, and the PXN has widened month - on - month. There may be additional load reduction and production plans for TA, but considering the lack of more - than - expected performance of polyester, the far - month inventory accumulation is expected, and the far - month processing fee is relatively reasonable after the valuation repair month - on - month. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based start - up has remained stable, the coal - based has restarted, and the overall load has increased to a high level. There is some maintenance overseas. The port inventory has significantly accumulated at the beginning of next week due to the increase in arrivals during the holiday and the dull shipment. The basis has slightly strengthened, and the benefit ratio has further shrunk. The industry has entered a continuous inventory accumulation stage, but there may be some negative feedback on the supply side after the coal - based benefit and ratio weaken. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based costs [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term Xinjiang Jianshanli has been under maintenance, Zhejiang Huaxing has increased its load, the start - up has decreased to 94.3%, the production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, the finished product inventory has remained stable month - on - month, and the benefit has been weak. The load - increasing speed of the polyester yarn end may slow down due to the high - level finished product inventory, but the start - up of short - fiber spot remains high due to good benefits, and the inventory pressure is limited. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate [4]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber has remained stable. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices of related products have changed to different degrees, and the production profits of some products have also changed. The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS have also shown different trends [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of PTA has changed, such as the domestic PTA spot price has decreased from 6650 to 6520, and the PX - naphtha spread has also changed [1]. - **Load and Inventory Situation**: The near - end TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up has slightly declined, the polyester load has increased month - on - month, and the inventory has slightly accumulated [1]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of MEG has decreased, and the profit has also changed. For example, the MEG domestic price has decreased from 4275 to 4145, and the profit has decreased from 128 to 54 [4]. - **Load and Inventory Situation**: The near - end domestic oil - based start - up has remained stable, the coal - based has restarted, and the overall load has increased to a high level. The port inventory has significantly accumulated at the beginning of next week [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The spot price of polyester staple fiber has decreased, the production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. The demand - side finished product inventory has remained stable month - on - month, and the benefit has been weak [4]. - **Start - up Situation**: The start - up has decreased to 94.3% due to short - term maintenance and load - increasing of some plants [4]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of various types of natural rubber have changed, and the national explicit inventory has remained stable. The price of Thai cup rubber has remained stable [4]. - **Strategy**: The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Styrene and Its Downstream Products - **Price and Profit Changes**: The prices of styrene and its downstream products such as pure benzene, EPS, ABS, and PS have changed, and the production profits of domestic products have also changed [4]. - **Start - up Situation**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS have shown different trends [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Tongkun Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.04% in its stock price, reaching 13.37 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 478 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.45%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 32.152 billion CNY [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is located in Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, and was established on September 27, 1999. The company was listed on May 18, 2011, and its main business involves the production and sales of various types of civil polyester filament and grey fabric [1] - The revenue composition of Tongkun Co., Ltd. includes: 61.10% from polyester pre-oriented yarn, 37.69% from purified terephthalic acid, 15.07% from polyester drawn yarn, 9.46% from polyester textured yarn, 2.90% from other sources, 2.89% from other business income, 0.34% from chips, and 0.27% from composite yarns [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, only one fund under Dongcai Fund has a significant position in Tongkun Co., Ltd. The Dongcai Industrial Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) increased its holdings by 4,000 shares in the second quarter, bringing the total to 90,000 shares, which accounts for 8.73% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest holding [2] - The Dongcai Industrial Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) was established on December 30, 2022, with a latest scale of 10.2192 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 23.88%, ranking 3974 out of 8162 in its category; the one-year return is 21.86%, ranking 4241 out of 8015; and since inception, the return is 13.85% [2]