Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkqh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 | | 名称 | 交易代码 | 主力基差率 | 较昨日増减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 录自导科 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜 | CU | 0.21% | 0.86% | 215 | 115 | 165 | 101870 | 101970 | 101920 | 102085 | SMM 1#电解铜 | | | 指 | AL | 0.04% | 1.23% | 10 | -15 | -60 | 23990 | 24015 | 24060 | 24000 | SMM A00铝 | | | 锌 | ZN | 0.52% | 0.54% | 125 | 80 | 40 | 24045 | 24090 | 24130 | 2417 ...

| 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月07日 | | 尿素 | ★☆☆ | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | な女女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 爱两烯 | ななな | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ★☆☆ | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | 女女女 | PTA | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | なな女 | 短纤 | な女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 纯碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | な☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【聚酯) 【烯烃-聚烯烃 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still weak, but different investment products have different trends. For example, the stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, while the treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [6][9]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close down. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 10 - year main contract rose by 0.03% [5]. - **Policy and News**: The central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5th, with a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan due to 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The 9 - department notice on promoting green consumption was released [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 2.26%, 2.55%, 3.11%, and 2.69% respectively [8]. - **Policy and News**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on promoting the cross - departmental work of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market. It aims to improve the system, strengthen coordination, and enhance corporate governance [9]. - **Outlook**: The fluctuation center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the gold main contract close at 995 with a 1.78% increase, and the silver main contract close at 18,247 with a 6.87% increase [11]. - **Policy and News**: The Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari commented on the employment market, inflation, and economic outlook [11]. - **Outlook**: The market volatility is expected to significantly increase. It is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures weakly oscillate. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai thread steel, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for thread steel is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has eased as the production is at a low level this year. The inventory is higher than last year but the consumption speed is fast. The hot - rolled coil has similar fundamentals [13]. - **Outlook**: The prices are likely to continue to weakly oscillate. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national hot metal daily output has declined in the past two months. The import volume in the first 11 months of 2025 increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the domestic production is lower than in 2024. The port inventory is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [15]. - **Outlook**: The market supply - demand pattern is weak, but the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures decline significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the holiday, domestic coking coal production increased. The demand from downstream coke enterprises is weak, and the fourth - round price cut of coke procurement has been implemented. The blast furnace profit is low, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - **Outlook**: The futures may continue to weakly oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels and manage their positions carefully [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract decline by 0.78% and the silicon - iron main contract decline by 1.37% [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The manganese ore supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. The cost of ferroalloys fluctuates slightly at a low level. The production of thread steel by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and the production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five - year period, but the inventory continues to increase [19]. - **Outlook**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil decline significantly due to the possible development of Venezuelan oil resources by the US [21]. - **Policy and News**: The US may have captured the Venezuelan president, and the US oil production reached a record high in October. The OPEC meeting confirmed a suspension of production increase in the first quarter [21]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline significantly and close below the moving average group. The Asian VLSFO spot discount narrowed, and the HSFO oscillated within a range [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative for prices. The spot discount narrowing and the possible increase in crude oil prices may support the fuel oil price [24]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Hangzhou PP market have mixed price movements, and the Yuyao LLDPE price increased [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production enterprises are actively reducing inventory, and the market price has stopped falling and rebounded, which is conducive to price stability [26]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract rise by 0.95%. The Shandong mainstream price increased, and the basis was stable [28]. - **Supply and Demand**: The price increase was supported by the rise in butadiene price and high device operating rate, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased [28][29]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rise by 1.06% and 1.14% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis slightly widened [31]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic supply has stopped, but the overseas pressure remains. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The 20 - rubber delivery supply has expanded [31]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract decline by 0.67%. The spot price was stable, and the basis slightly widened [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: It is in the traditional off - season. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost support is strong, and the social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract rise by 1.43%. The Shandong Linyi price increased, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output has slightly increased, and the agricultural demand is expected to increase. The demand from the industrial sector is weak. The inventory has decreased [35]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PX2603 main contract decline by 1.23%. The PXN spread and short - term profit are recovering [37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is stable, and the inventory is low. The crude oil price may be adjusted due to the US - Venezuela situation [37][38]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate and adjust in the short term. It is advisable to participate with caution and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2605 main contract decline by 1.87%. The processing fee has recovered [39]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has recovered. The export has increased. The cost of crude oil may be uncertain due to geopolitical situations [39]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to operate with caution and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract decline by 2.51% [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is increasing, and the demand support is slightly weakening [40][41]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2602 main contract decline by 1.25% [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal factories are mainly consuming inventory. The new orders in the weaving sector are weak [42]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate following the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2603 main contract decline by 1.46%. The processing fee is around 410 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply and Demand**: The bottle - chip factory load has increased, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has slightly improved, but the cost is still the main influencing factor [43]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following the cost. It is advisable to participate with caution and control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract rise by 7.74% [45]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased [45]. - **Outlook**: The price may be supported in the short term, but it is necessary to operate with caution as it is easily affected by news [45]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract rise by 2.22% [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global copper supply may be tight due to strikes in Chile. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [46]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [46]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract rise by 2.57%, and the alumina main contract decline by 0.72% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The alumina supply is in excess, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand from processing enterprises is weak [48]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be vigilant about price retracement [48]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract rise by 1.16% [50]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee is low, and the refined zinc production may decrease. The overseas supply - demand tension has eased [50]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise as the consumption off - season is approaching [50]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract rise by 0.32% [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply from primary and secondary lead enterprises is weak, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is low [52][53]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate within a range [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai tin main contract rise by 1.05% [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The tin supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption in Wa State. The demand has some resilience [55]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai nickel main contract rise by 0.71% [56]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel policy may increase costs. The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation [56]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the soybean meal main contract decline by 0.28% and the soybean oil main contract decline by 0.13% [57]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Brazilian soybean planting is almost completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved [57][58]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the cost - support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options at low levels for soybean oil [58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw Malaysian palm oil rise slightly [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to reach a seven - year high, and the export has decreased. The domestic import has increased [60]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed price increased by more than 1% [62]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high and low level respectively in the past seven years [62]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [63]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic Zhengzhou cotton first rise and then fall. The overseas cotton price rose by 1% [64]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, but the future planting area may decrease. The textile and clothing export has shown some resilience [65][66]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to be strong [66]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Zhengzhou sugar oscillate and rebound, and the overseas raw sugar slightly rebounded [68]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. The import volume has changed [69]. - **Outlook**: The upward space may be limited after the significant rebound [70]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic apple futures rise significantly [72]. - **Supply and Demand**: The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season production and quality have declined [73]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the national average pig price remain unchanged. The main contract declined by 0.98% [75][76]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of large - scale farms may increase in January, and the demand has weakened after the holiday. The frozen - product inventory has decreased [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The supply may face great pressure in the first quarter. It is advisable to consider an inverse spread strategy [76]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main contract rise by 1.42% [78]. - **Supply and Demand**: The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in January, but the supply may improve marginally. The consumption is weak after the New Year's Day [77][78]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to consider a positive spread strategy [78]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract decline by 0.22% and the corn starch main contract decline by 0.44% [79]. - **Supply and Demand**: The North Port corn inventory is low, and the Northeast production area's grain - selling progress is fast. The

| 《八》 国控期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月31日 | | 丙烯 | 文☆☆ 聚丙烯 | | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 租料 | 女女女 | 纯苯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | PX | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | なな女 | 瓶片 | な☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 筑碱 | 文文文 玻璃 | | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment outlooks and trend analyses for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading suggestions and risk warnings [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation and macro - news. The trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment. The price shows a downward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: Capital outflows lead to a retracement. The price drops significantly, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. - **Palladium**: It follows platinum's retracement. The price also shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Capital liquidation causes price corrections. The price experiences a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits price declines. The price shows a slight decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The price drops, and the trend strength is 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It follows copper. The price movement is related to copper, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: It is in a sideways oscillation. The price remains relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It shows a slight decline. The price drops slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals restrict elasticity, but attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied in some products)**: Affects the prices of downstream products such as fuel oil and chemicals. For example, the price of fuel oil may be affected by crude oil price fluctuations [126]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session fluctuations increase, and it may maintain strength in the short term. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strong - side oscillation, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the outer market is temporarily stable. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillation market. The supply increases, and the demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to pay attention to position management before the holiday, and the trend strength is 0 [2][64][69]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The port inventory accumulates, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is 0 [2][64][70]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][113]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand tightens, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][114]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the rebound space is limited. The trend strength is 0 [2][122]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related (Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil)**: - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][159][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean drive is not significant, and it is mainly operated within a range. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. - **Soybean**: It is in an oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][163]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound arrangement. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][167]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price corrects. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][172]. - **Eggs**: They are in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][178]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and they are strong in the short term. The price shows an upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill acquisitions. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][187]. - **Palm Oil**: It has a short - term rhythm rebound, but the height is limited. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. Others - **Iron Ore**: It is in a high - level repetition. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][45]. - **Rebar**: Macroeconomic support and industrial suppression coexist, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, with macroeconomic support and industrial suppression, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Silicon Iron**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut starts, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Year - end production cuts disrupt, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Log**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][60]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][89]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][96]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][99]. - **Urea**: It runs in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][103]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term oscillation mainly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][151]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][128].

广期所通知称，自2025年12月30日结算时起，工业硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度及交易保证金标准维持不 变；多晶硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度维持不变，投机交易保证金标准、套期保值交易保证金标准调整为 15%；碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，投机交易保证金标准调整为12%，套期保值交易保证 金标准调整为11%；铂、钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为13%，投机交易保证金标准、套期保值交易保 证金标准调整为15%。2026年1月5日恢复交易后，自各品种期货持仓量最大的合约未出现涨跌停板单边 无连续报价的第一个交易日结算时起，工业硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度及交易保证金标准维持不变；多晶 硅、铂及钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度、投机交易保证金标准及套期保值交易保证金标准维持假期期间标准 不变；碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度、投机交易保证金标准及套期保值交易保证金标准恢复至调整前水 平。(齐宣) 本报讯12月26日，上期所、郑商所、广期所分别发布通知，公布2026年元旦假期风控措施。 郑商所通知称，自2025年12月30日结算时起，棉花、菜油、菜粕、PTA、甲醇、短纤、对二甲苯、瓶片 期货合约的交易保证金标准为9%，涨跌停板幅度为8%，其中菜粕 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various commodity futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as their year - to - date price changes and持仓量 and capital flow information [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 1,016.30 with a weekly increase of 3.71%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.43%, and a volatility change of 13.75%. Silver closed at 18,319.00 with a weekly increase of 19.14%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 43.50%, and a volatility change of 33.41% [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 98,720.00 with a 5.95% weekly increase; nickel at 126,750.00 with a 7.91% increase; aluminum at 22,405.00 with a 0.99% increase; tin at 338,550.00 with a 1.58% decrease; zinc at 23,170.00 with a 0.41% increase; lead at 17,555.00 with a 4.00% increase; industrial silicon at 8,880.00 with a 2.19% increase [2] - **Black Metals**: Coke closed at 1,720.00 with a 1.15% decrease; coking coal at 1,115.50 with a 0.68% increase; iron ore at 783.00 with a 0.38% increase; rebar at 3,118.00 with a 0.03% decrease; hot - rolled coil at 3,283.00 with a 0.43% increase; ferrosilicon at 5,672.00 with a 0.57% increase; silicomanganese at 5,840.00 with a 0.55% increase; stainless steel at 12,955.00 with a 1.85% increase [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at 441.80 with a 3.56% increase; fuel oil at 2,491.00 with a 4.23% increase; LU at 3,017.00 with a 3.53% increase; LPG at 4,080.00 with a 0.46% decrease; asphalt at 2,995.00 with a 2.96% increase; PVC at 4,832.00 with a 3.87% increase; polyethylene at 6,465.00 with a 2.29% increase; polypropylene at 6,292.00 with a 1.27% increase; styrene at 6,787.00 with a 6.01% increase; PTA at 5,280.00 with an 8.15% increase; ethylene glycol at 3,846.00 with a 2.89% increase; short - fiber at 6,666.00 with a 5.94% increase; methanol at 2,161.00 with a 0.61% increase; urea at 1,735.00 with a 2.24% increase; glass at 1,057.00 with a 1.54% increase; soda ash at 1,200.00 with a 2.04% increase; natural rubber at 15,780.00 with a 3.88% increase [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton closed at 14,535.00 with a 3.71% increase; sugar at 5,285.00 with a 3.87% increase; corn at 2,222.00 with a 1.37% increase; apple at 9,247.00 with a 0.52% increase; starch at 2,514.00 with a 0.88% increase; soybean No. 1 at 4,128.00 with a 1.08% increase; soybean No. 2 at 3,491.00 with a 2.26% increase; soybean meal at 2,790.00 with a 2.01% increase; soybean oil at 7,836.00 with a 1.61% increase; palm oil at 8,568.00 with a 3.33% increase; rapeseed meal at 2,391.00 with a 2.93% increase; rapeseed oil at 9,046.00 with a 3.45% increase; pulp at 5,630.00 with a 2.25% increase [2] - **Livestock Products**: Egg closed at 2,957.00 with a 2.46% increase; live pig at 11,645.00 with a 2.83% increase [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 7,388.00 with a 4.71% increase; IF at 4,638.40 with a 2.46% increase; IM at 7,472.40 with a 4.63% increase; IH at 3,051.40 with a 1.50% increase; T at 108.30 with a 0.14% increase; TS at 102.55 with a 0.06% increase; TF at 106.05 with a 0.08% increase [3] 3.2 Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had a year - to - date increase of 145.23%, gold 64.56%, and tin 38.26%. Some commodities had significant year - to - date decreases, such as PVC with a 20.95% decrease and LPG with a 25.11% decrease [13] 3.3 Position and Capital Flow - **Position Changes**: The positions of coke, PTA, lead, urea, and soybean No. 1 increased significantly [15][16] - **Capital Flow**: The capital attention of silver, gold, copper, nickel, and PTA increased [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, representing short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ななな (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Caustic soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - РХ: ★☆☆ (One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene glycol: 女女女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis of each product's fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Olefins - Polyolefins] - Propylene futures opened higher in the morning, oscillating around the 5 - day moving average. Although low - price transactions improved slightly, the supply in Shandong was overall loose due to increased external supplies. With the rising production cost of PDH enterprises, the willingness to offer discounts may weaken [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated narrowly. The price of the domestic polyethylene market continued to decline as downstream factories were cautious in purchasing. Polypropylene faced insufficient new orders, and both downstream and middle - men were cautious in trading, leading to price discounts by producers [2] [Pure Benzene - Styrene] - The price of pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory continued to rise, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider a long position in the month - spread positive set on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures continued to rise. Although the export increased, the supply - side pressure remained due to increased domestic production. The market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] [Polyester] - PX increased in position and price, and PTA followed suit. There will be a supply increase in the short term and a decrease in downstream demand around the Spring Festival. Maintain a long - position idea in the medium term [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, it may be alleviated by reduced arrivals and device maintenance. The supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [4] - Short - fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand weakened, and the market is mainly driven by cost, facing long - term over - capacity pressure [4] [Coal Chemical Industry] - Methanol oscillated narrowly. The port inventory increased significantly, but there is an upward driving force in the medium and long term. Consider a long position in the 5 - 9 month - spread positive set on dips [5] - Urea production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the market oscillated strongly [5] [Chlor - Alkali] - PVC oscillated strongly. The supply pressure may ease in 2026, but the demand is weak, and it may operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Although the inventory decreased slightly, the supply pressure is still high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] [Soda Ash - Glass] - Soda ash oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Consider a short - position strategy on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash 05 strategy at low levels [7] - Glass oscillated. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needs to reduce capacity to reach balance [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market Outlook**: The current macro - economic data remains stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Market risk preferences have increased, and different asset classes show various trends [6][9]. - **Asset - Specific Views**: - **Bonds**: Treasury futures are expected to face some pressure, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. - **Equities**: Stock index futures are expected to have a gradually rising volatility center, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. - **Base Metals and Steel**: Most base metals and steel products show weak or volatile trends. Investors can take appropriate short - term trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as shorting at high levels or going long at low levels [14][15][17]. - **Energy**: Crude oil and fuel oil have different market situations. Crude oil may have long - entry opportunities near key price points, while fuel oil may have room for rebound. Both are currently in a wait - and - see situation [26][27][29]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. Some may be in a weak or strong position, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [62][70][73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.89%, 0.26%, 0.17%, and 0.07% respectively. The central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, and low treasury yields, treasury futures are expected to face pressure, and investors should be cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: Stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures changed by 0.12%, 0.22%, 0.04%, and - 0.15% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Despite weak corporate profit growth, low domestic asset valuations, sufficient economic resilience, and increased market sentiment suggest that the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise, and investors can go long at the right time [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver main contracts rose by 1.34% and 1.43% respectively. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the US real GDP in Q3 was 4.3%, and the US durable goods orders in October decreased by 2.2% [11][12]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals, which are expected to continue rising. Investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. Base Metals and Steel Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. Tangshan billet was priced at 2960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3180 - 3320 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3250 - 3270 yuan/ton [14]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Due to the long - term decline in real estate demand, approaching demand off - season, and supply - side factors, rebar prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels during rebounds [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures oscillated. PB powder was priced at 788 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder at 670 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With falling iron - water output, increasing imports, and rising port inventories, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Futures may face resistance at previous highs. Investors can short at high levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and the third - round price cut for coke procurement has started [19]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: In the short term, the futures may continue to rebound. Investors can go long at low levels [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts changed by - 0.21% and 0.18% respectively. Manganese ore shipments decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. Ferroalloy production continued to decline [22]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Although the overall oversupply pressure persists, there may be long - entry opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [22][23]. Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: INE crude oil opened high and closed low, blocked by the 20 - day moving average. Fund managers reduced net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs decreased [24][25]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: There may be long - entry opportunities near the $60 mark for Brent crude. Currently, investors are advised to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil rose significantly, closing above the 20 - day moving average. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, but it is still much higher than the average [28]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Tight Asian spot supply and stable crude oil prices support fuel oil prices. It has large rebound potential, but investors are advised to wait and see [29][30]. Chemicals Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: PP and LLDPE markets showed weak trends. PP prices were 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and LLDPE prices dropped by 50 - 120 yuan/ton [31]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The polyolefin market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction in standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors are advised to wait and see [31][32]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: Synthetic rubber main contract rose by 0.90%. Raw material prices increased, supply was abundant, and demand was weak [33][34]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [35]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: Natural rubber main contracts rose. Domestic supply decreased, and demand was weak. Inventory continued to accumulate [36]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [37]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC main contract rose by 3.02%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory decreased slightly [38][39]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [39]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Urea main contract rose by 1.24%. Daily output fluctuated slightly, demand may increase slightly, and inventory was lower than expected [40]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The downward space is limited [41]. PX - **Market Performance**: PX2603 main contract rose by 1.84%. PXN spread adjusted, and supply - demand improved [42]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate strongly in the short term. Investors can participate at low levels and be vigilant about crude oil and macro - policy changes [43]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.38%. Supply decreased, demand was stable, and processing fees declined [44]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may have upward momentum. Investors can participate at low levels following cost changes [44]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Ethylene glycol main contract fell by 3.02%. Supply increased, inventory accumulated, and demand support weakened [45][46]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate at the bottom. Investors can trade within the range and pay attention to inventory and supply changes [46]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: Short - fiber 2602 main contract rose by 1.32%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and cost drive increased [47]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost and policy changes [47]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: Bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 1.75%. Processing fees declined, supply decreased slightly, and export growth improved [48]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Investors should control risks [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose by 5.67%. Supply was high, demand improved, and inventory decreased [49]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.04%. Supply was tight, and demand had short - term pressure [50]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [50][51]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Shanghai aluminum main contract rose by 0.16%, and alumina main contract rose by 0.83%. Alumina supply was in surplus, and aluminum demand was average [52][53]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level [53][54]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.39%. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and inventory increased [55]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [55][56]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Lead market situation is similar to zinc, with weak supply - demand and limited upward and downward space [57]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [57][58]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin main contract fell by 1.63%. Supply was tight, and demand had certain resilience [59]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel main contract rose by 2.52%. Policy risks increased, supply was in surplus, and demand was weak [60]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to Indonesian policies [60]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. Brazilian soybean planting was almost completed, and domestic oil - mill crushing was at a high level [61][62]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Soybean meal may have long - entry opportunities at low levels, and soybean oil may have upward potential after breaking through. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities in low - level call options [62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose. Indonesian biodiesel policy and export data changed, and domestic inventory was at a medium level [63]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [65]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures fell slightly. Domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports changed, and inventory levels were different [66]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [67]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures were strong, and overseas cotton rose. Xinjiang's cotton policy and supply - demand reports affected the market [68][70]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to be strong [70][71]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly, and overseas raw sugar rose. Domestic and overseas sugar production and import data changed [72][73]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate weakly [74]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Apple futures oscillated, and inventory decreased slightly. New - season production and quality declined [75][77]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Apple prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price rose slightly. Supply and demand factors such as sow inventory, planned slaughter, and consumption affected the market [79][80]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see and follow the slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [80]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices were stable. Egg production was high, and demand was weak [81][82]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [83]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. North - port inventory increased, and demand was slightly improved [84][85]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86].

国内某龙头PTA生产加工企业产业园区。本栏图片均由郑商所供图 已上市的聚酯类期货品种。 聚酯，作为我国重要的大宗商品，提供了国内70%的纺织品原料，并广泛应用于包装等领域，具有产业链条 长、关联度广的特性，与人民生活密切相关。 从2006年全球首个聚酯期货品种PTA期货落地郑州商品交易所，到如今形成覆盖对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶 片的全链条期货工具体系，郑商所逐步构建起覆盖聚酯产业全链条、多工具的风险管理体系，为聚酯产业稳 健前行注入坚实金融动能。 如今，聚酯期货板块不仅成为国内企业稳定经营的重要工具，更逐步推动"中国价格"走向世界，成为中国期 货市场服务实体经济、提升国际定价影响力的生动样本。 立足产业需求 织密全链条风险管理网 郑商所短纤期货交割仓库仓单货品。 郑商所PTA期货交割仓库仓单货品。 聚酯产业链品种作为中间产品，其价格易受上游原油价格波动与下游纺织、包装需求变化影响，进而引发全 链条价格波动。当缺乏有效风险管理工具时，企业极易面临"高价原料、低价产品"的双重挤压。 郑商所聚焦产业痛点，全力构建聚酯期货板块体系，为产业健康稳健发展提供有效风险管理工具。时间回到 2006年12月18日，全球首个聚 ...