商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 1,147.90 3.41% 72.66% 0.27% 1.13 -0.04 -147.54 白银 23,019.00 16.36% 129.12% 7.64% 1.95 0.21 -11.81 铜 103,920.00 3.27% 44.13% 0.88% 0.67 0.38 -127.74 镍 141,560.00 4.13% 48.55% 2.57% 3.10 0.40 12.58 铝 23,835.00 2.45% 38.23% 0.75% 1.04 0.37 -32.02 锡 453,240.00 23.27% 81.12% 15.77% 8.18 0.55 42.72 锌 24,710.00 1.90% 26.11% 2.33% 1.45 0.46 -10.43 铅 16,840.00 0.84% 9.86% -11.23% 0.84 0.26 -6.98 工业硅 8,395.00 0.00% 15.95% -16.70% 0.58 -0.09 -4.85 螺纹钢 3,067.00 0.39% ...

2026 年 2 月 27 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.53%报 112.090 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.10%报 108.370 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.08%报 105.980 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.03%报 102.432 元。 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 26 日以 ...

2026 年 2 月 25 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 17 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 20 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.20%报 112.960 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.02%报 108.500 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 106.175 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.450 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 24 日以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. Pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival [7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillating pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [10][11]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the oscillating pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: There may be opportunities to go long in the low - range. Consider the low - cost and rigid cost conditions [18]. - **Crude Oil**: There is some progress in US - Iran negotiations, but geopolitical risks remain. It is advisable to hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply shortage in Singapore has eased, but there is still room for an upward movement due to the unresolved Iran risk. Hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: Be cautious in pre - holiday operations [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: Control positions before the holiday [30]. - **PVC**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [32]. - **Urea**: Expected to be oscillating and strong [33]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations during the Spring Festival [34]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, with a small inventory build - up expected. Be cautious, and pay attention to the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday [35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still pressure above, and it may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern. Be cautious and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: Trade based on the cost - end logic before the holiday. Be cautious and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory [37]. - **Bottle Chips**: Follow the cost - end trend. Be cautious before the holiday and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices and external market changes during the holiday [38]. - **Soda Ash**: Be cautious due to the off - season fundamentals. Hold light positions during the holiday [39]. - **Glass**: The market is generally loose. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday, paying attention to the return to fundamentals [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory situation has slightly improved. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday [41]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the impact on pre - holiday prices is temporarily dull. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Control risks [44]. - **Copper**: May experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: May be under pressure [47][48]. - **Zinc**: Will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. - **Tin**: There is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify. Control risks [54]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. - **Apples**: In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. - **Hogs**: Wait and see before the holiday due to the supply - demand imbalance [69][70]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. - **Logs**: The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5238 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the domestic supply also increased slightly. The downstream pre - holiday procurement ended, and the market entered a demand vacuum period. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.66% to 149,420 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption side has improved, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [44]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton, down 2.56%. The market sentiment declined, and the fundamentals weakened. The copper price may experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure [47][48]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 4.27% to 376,330 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, and there is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [54]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan/ton. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the cost is expected to rise. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 1.16% to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.22% to 8,082 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand continues to grow moderately, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. The supply may increase, and the export decreased. Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed followed the rise of US soybean oil futures but did not break through the resistance level. The Chinese import situation has changed, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [61][63]. Cotton - The domestic Zheng cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish. In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar rose and then fell; the overnight external raw sugar fell to a new low. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faces dual supply pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. Apples - The domestic apple futures oscillated. The current market is in a vacuum period. In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. Hogs - The main contract rose 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [69][70]. Eggs - The main contract rose 1.56% to 3,200 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. Corn and Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.83% to 2,320 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.51% to 2,572 yuan/ton. The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. Logs - The main 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The shipping volume has recovered, but the downstream demand is weakening. The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-12 对中东局势的担忧持续扰动油价，化⼯ 延续震荡整理 彭博报道称美国正考虑扣押载有伊朗原油的油轮，并可能在伊朗核问 题谈判失败的情况下向该地区增派航母战斗群；以色列总理也访美，敦促 美国总统推动全面遏制伊朗在中东的军事活动及其弹道导弹计划，而非满 足于达成范围更窄的核协议。这一系列事件引发了市场对中东地缘局势紧 张的担忧。原油价格强势，一些成品油出现了跟涨不力的情况，例如亚洲 地区的汽油裂解价差近期走势偏弱，绝对值处于近五年同期低位，成品油 裂差是原油最直接的需求指标。 板块逻辑： 近期聚酯产业链企业相继发布检修计划，强化了聚酯链格局向好的预 期。2月10日CCF报道，华东一250万吨装置即日起停车，重启时间不定， 该装置占PTA总产能比例为2.71%；3-5月仍有装置做出检修计划。2月11日 CCF报道，连云港一套90万吨MEG装置停车转产，这影响了MEG约3%的供 应。聚酯三大产品长丝、短纤和瓶片的检修自1月中旬就陆续开启。春节 后聚酯开工攀升，而原料仍有检修，原料供应缩减或供给持稳而需求端攀 升，原料偏强格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will still be some pressure, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held [8][9]. - For precious metals, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For ferroalloys, overall excess pressure continues, and after a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. - For crude oil, the rebound is expected to continue, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [19][20]. - For fuel oil, the upside still has room, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. - For polyolefins, cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. - For natural rubber, control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. - For PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up. Cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, it may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. - For short - fiber, trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost - side operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. - For soda ash, it should still be treated with caution [42]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. - For caustic soda, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. - For pulp, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. - For lithium carbonate, the downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. - For copper, the price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. - For aluminum, the price may be under pressure [49][50]. - For zinc, the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. - For tin, the price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. - For nickel, the first - grade nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. - For cotton, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. - For sugar, it is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. - For apples, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. - For live pigs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. - For eggs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be taken at high prices after the festival [74]. - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and wait patiently for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [75][77]. - For logs, the future demand expectation is still weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 40.35 billion yuan on that day. China's January CPI and PPI data showed certain trends. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held. Attention should be paid to risk control during the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment, and market volatility is expected to increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure still exists, and the inventory is higher than last year. The price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, the supply is in a certain situation, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand of downstream coke enterprises was cautious. The supply of coke was stable, but the demand was weak. They may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the overall excess pressure continues. After a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the repeated relationship between the US and Iran. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. Geopolitical risks increased, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [18][19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is weak, but the cost - side crude oil rebound drives the fuel oil price to rise. The risk in Iran is unresolved, and there is still room for the upside of fuel oil. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins showed certain trends. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the market will be greatly reduced, while some suppliers still actively ship. Cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, the supply capacity utilization rate was at a high level, the demand of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased but was still at a medium - high level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. After the previous pullback, it showed a strong - side fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the festival. Control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The price trend and inventory reduction speed depend on the demand recovery after the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weakening, and the cost is stable. The inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, the operating rate increased slightly, and the cost - side crude oil may have a driving force. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply side changed little, the demand side entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the cost - side support was limited. The processing fee was adjusted to the average level of previous years, and it may fluctuate in the short term. 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up, and cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall load continued to rise, the port inventory continued to build up, the downstream polyester was in seasonal maintenance, and the terminal loom load dropped to the lowest point. It may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply contracts, the terminal factory restocking decreases, and the loom load drops to the lowest point. The low inventory may provide bottom support. Trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The load decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate increases, and it is expected to follow the cost - side operation. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures closed flat. The fundamentals continued to be loose, the production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. It should still be treated with caution [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory of traders continued to build up, and the market was in a loose state. It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply was at a high level, the inventory was at a high level historically, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. The short - term rise was due to the entry of futures - cash merchants, and it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory continued to build up, the domestic supply increased slightly, the downstream demand was divided, and the market was inactive. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The domestic production resumption time in Jiangxi is still uncertain, the supply is in a tight - balance state, the demand of the energy - storage sector is prominent, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. The downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The capital market risk preference decreased, the terminal and processing enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the smelting production was at a high level, and the inventory was in the seasonal build - up stage. The price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures closed flat. The cost support of alumina is not strong, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, the aluminum production changes little, and the inventory build - up amplitude increases. The aluminum price may be under pressure [49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, the traditional seasonal inventory build - up is late, and the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose slightly. The supply is expected to be loose after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is steadily increasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, but the supply tightness is alleviated. The demand shows certain resilience. The price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, the cost is expected to rise, the policy risk in Indonesia increases, the downstream demand is weak, and the first - grade nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell slightly. The export demand expectation is optimistic, but the record - high yield of Brazilian soybeans brings competition. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the export volume decreased. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fluctuated. The planting area of rapeseed in Canada may be affected by profit concerns, and the domestic import policy and inventory situation are certain. Temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA report is bearish in the short term. Although the domestic harvest is good, the inventory build - up is less than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is resilient. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The global production increase expectation is strong, and the domestic market is under the pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The current market is in a vacuum period, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality decline. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The market supply exceeds demand, the consumption boost during the Spring Festival is limited, and the post - holiday supply may still face pressure. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level, the pre - holiday stocking is over. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. There is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. The stock index fluctuation center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. The trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products and iron ore is weak, and they may continue the weak shock pattern in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][16]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is complex. They may continue the shock pattern in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [19]. - The overall over - supply pressure of ferroalloys continues, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After the price drops, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunities in the low - level range [21]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks still exist. The capital is still bullish on crude oil prices, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue [24]. - The tight supply of Singapore fuel oil has eased, but the rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the fuel oil price to rebound, and there is still room for the fuel oil price to rise [27]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will decrease significantly, and cautious operation is recommended before the festival [29]. - Synthetic rubber may show a relatively strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and infrastructure construction after the Lantern Festival and the inventory destocking rate of tire enterprises [31]. - Natural rubber may show a shock trend, and positions should be controlled before the festival [34]. - PVC may show a relatively strong shock trend, and the key to price and inventory lies in the demand recovery after the Spring Festival [36]. - Urea may show a shock - strong trend, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [39]. - PX may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short - term, and cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the fluctuation risk of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival [42]. - PTA may be in shock operation in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to oil price changes [43]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain a shock - bottoming pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to port inventory and supply changes [45]. - Short - fiber is still trading based on the cost - end logic before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46]. - Bottle chips are expected to follow the cost - end operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the festival, paying attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [49]. - The fundamentals of soda ash are still loose, and it should be treated with caution [50]. - The fundamentals of glass are still loose, and it is expected to be in shock before the festival, paying attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [51]. - The seasonal characteristics of caustic soda are significant, and although the disk rose yesterday, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so it should be treated with caution [54]. - Pulp is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival due to factors such as inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [57]. - The price of lithium carbonate has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is necessary [58]. - Copper prices may be weakly adjusted before the festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [60]. - Aluminum prices may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market this month [62]. - Zinc prices will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingots accumulate [64]. - Lead prices may show a weak shock trend due to the weak supply - demand pattern [66]. - Tin prices have support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [67]. - Nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [69]. - For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [71]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [73]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [79]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [83]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long in batches after the price pulls back [84]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival as the supply may still face pressure after the festival [87]. - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go short at high prices after the festival [88]. - Corn and corn starch may follow the corn market, and patience is needed to wait for the release of supply pressure after the festival [91]. - The fundamentals of logs are under pressure, and attention should be paid to overseas quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [95]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 205.9 billion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It is expected that treasury bond futures still have some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The market regulatory authorities approved a batch of important national standards. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The stock index fluctuation center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts fell. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the value of gold, but the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak shock. In the medium - term, the price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure still exists. The price may continue the weak shock pattern, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is rising. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue the shock pattern in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal may decrease in the later period, and the demand for coke is weak. They may continue the shock pattern in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After the price drops, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunities in the low - level range [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks still exist. The capital is still bullish on crude oil prices, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the main crude oil contract [22][24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The tight supply of Singapore fuel oil has eased, but the rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the fuel oil price to rebound, and there is still room for the fuel oil price to rise. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the main fuel oil contract [26][27]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand will decrease significantly, and cautious operation is recommended before the festival [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. It may show a relatively strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and infrastructure construction after the Lantern Festival and the inventory destocking rate of tire enterprises [31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. It may show a shock trend, and positions should be controlled before the festival [34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. It may show a relatively strong shock trend, and the key to price and inventory lies in the demand recovery after the Spring Festival [36]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. It may show a shock - strong trend, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [39]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. It may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short - term, and cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the fluctuation risk of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival [40][42]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. It may be in shock operation in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to oil price changes [43]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. It may maintain a shock - bottoming pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to port inventory and supply changes [44][45]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. It is still trading based on the cost - end logic before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. It is expected to follow the cost - end operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the festival, paying attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [47][49]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda - ash main contract fell. The fundamentals are still loose, and it should be treated with caution [50]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass main contract fell. The fundamentals are still loose, and it is expected to be in shock before the festival, paying attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [51]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda main contract rose. The seasonal characteristics are significant, and although the disk rose yesterday, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so it should be treated with caution [53][54]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp main contract fell. The inventory continues to accumulate, the terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [55][57]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate main contract rose. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is necessary [58]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The market sentiment has declined, and the fundamentals have weakened. The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the festival [59][60]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract was flat, and the alumina main contract fell. The alumina cost support is not strong, and the aluminum price may be under pressure this month [62]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [64]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price may show a weak shock trend [65][66]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the tin price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [67]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. Nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [68][69]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil main contracts fell. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [70][71]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm - oil market fell. The inventory in Malaysia is still at a high level, and the export has declined. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a medium - to - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [72][73]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose. The export volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, while the export volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are in different states. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [74][76]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish, but the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the future, and the demand has resilience. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [77][79]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase strongly, and the domestic market is facing the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium - term [81][82]. Apple - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long in batches after the price pulls back [84]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live - pig main contract fell. The overall supply exceeds demand, and the consumption boost is limited before the Spring Festival. The supply may still face pressure after the festival. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [86][87]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg main contract rose. The egg supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go short at high prices after the festival [88]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The supply pressure of corn is still large, but the demand is strong. Corn starch may follow the corn market, and patience is needed to wait for the release of supply pressure after the festival [89][91]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log main contract fell. The shipping volume has returned to normal, but the downstream demand is weakening. The fundamentals are under pressure, and attention should be paid to overseas quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [92][95].

Group 1 - The company has announced adjustments to the margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts effective from February 9, 2026 [1][3][5] - The margin ratio for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and aluminum oxide futures is set to 22%, with a price fluctuation limit of 10% [1] - The margin ratio for cast aluminum alloy and stainless steel futures is adjusted to 18% with a fluctuation limit of 8% [1] - The margin ratio for wire rod futures is set at 19% with a fluctuation limit of 8% [1] - Nickel and tin futures will have a margin ratio of 26% and a fluctuation limit of 12% [1] - Gold futures will see a margin ratio of 29% with a fluctuation limit of 17% [1] - Silver futures will have a margin ratio of 39% and a fluctuation limit of 20% [1] - For methanol, paraxylene, PTA, short fiber, and bottle futures, the margin ratio is set to 20% with a fluctuation limit of 9% [5] Group 2 - Contracts with existing margin standards and fluctuation limits that exceed the new adjustments will continue to follow the original regulations [2][4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Gold has allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue the weak oscillation pattern. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. - The coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall over - supply pressure, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens, and cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. - The urea price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. - The PTA market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. - The soda ash market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. - The glass market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. - The caustic soda market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. - The copper market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. - The aluminum market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. - The zinc market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. - The lead market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. - The tin market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. - The palm oil market may consider buying on dips [66]. - The rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets are recommended to wait and see for now [69]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. - The apple market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short term and strong in the medium and long term. It is recommended to go long in batches after a correction [77]. - The pig market is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the changes in supply and consumption around the Spring Festival [80]. - The egg market is recommended to wait and see, as the supply in February may remain at a relatively high level [83]. - The corn and corn starch markets are expected to follow the corn market. It is necessary to wait for the release of supply pressure [84]. - The log market shows a strong performance on the disk, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 64.5 billion yuan on the day. The service trade in 2025 showed steady growth [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends [8]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices fell. In 2025, domestic gold production increased, but consumption decreased. The US ISM service PMI index declined slightly [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and gold has allocation and hedging value. However, the short - term market fluctuations may increase, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak oscillation. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure increases. The prices may continue the weak oscillation pattern [13]. - Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern is weak [15]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The supply of coking coal may decline during the Spring Festival, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose slightly. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the short - term oversupply has weakened [19]. - After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose first and then fell. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC + may maintain the decision to suspend production increases in March [20]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is strong, and the trading volume of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil paper futures increased [23]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens [26]. - Cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The price of raw materials rose, the supply decreased slightly, the demand improved year - on - year, and the inventory increased [28]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The overseas supply is shrinking, the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [31]. - The market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The price was supported by exports and costs, but the high inventory and weak demand restricted the price increase [33]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell slightly. The supply increased, the demand was driven by exports and the market sentiment, and the industry profit increased [37]. - The price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, and the PX operating rate increased slightly [39]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased seasonally, and the processing fee rose to the average level of previous years [41]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The overall operating load increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream polyester entered the seasonal maintenance period [42]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply decreased, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was at a low level [44]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee rebounded, the supply was expected to decrease, and the export increased [45]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [46]. - The market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The number of production lines decreased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [48]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production was at a high level, the inventory was still at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak [49]. - The market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory continued to accumulate, the domestic supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [52]. - The market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [53]. - The market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell. The geopolitical events increased the risk - aversion demand, the mine supply was disturbed, and the terminal consumption entered the off - season [54]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell, and alumina futures rose. The alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production growth is limited, and the demand is weak [56]. - The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell. The supply tightened, the demand was weak, and the social inventory has not yet started to accumulate [58]. - The market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply was restricted by the shortage of raw materials, the demand was differentiated, and the inventory was extremely low [60]. - The market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The mine supply was tight, the demand showed some resilience, and the inventory decreased [62]. - The market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The nickel ore policy in Indonesia changed, the production cost increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory was at a relatively high level [63]. - The market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose slightly, and soybean oil futures fell. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy improved the demand expectation. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends [64]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell. The market expects the inventory to decrease, the production to decline, and the export to increase. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level [66]. - The market may consider buying on dips [66]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy and the China - Canada tariff policy have an impact on the market. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at a relatively high level [69]. - The market is recommended to wait and see for now [69]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell, and the domestic cotton production increased, but the inventory accumulation was lower than expected. The future supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient [71]. - The market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly, and the external market sugar price fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient with high imports [75]. - The market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. Apple - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The market is in the late stage of Spring Festival stocking, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality have declined [77]. - The market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised. The stock index is expected to gradually shift the volatility center upwards, and the previous long positions can be held. The precious metal market is expected to see significantly increased volatility, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trends and investment strategies are analyzed based on supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in Treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3025 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and it is expected that the Treasury bond futures will face pressure, so caution is required [5][6] Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the valuation is low and the market sentiment is warming up. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually shift upwards, and the previous long positions can be held [8] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose significantly. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold purchases support gold. However, the recent sharp rise has led to increased speculative sentiment, and it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly. It is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [10] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, the price is dominated by supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, the supply pressure increases, and the inventory is higher than last year. It is expected that the price will continue the weak oscillation, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips with proper position management [13] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly declined. The demand is at a low level, the supply has increased in 2025, and the port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips with proper position management [15] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The supply of coking coal may decline in the future, and the demand for coke is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels with proper position management [17][18] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon) - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The supply is in excess, the cost is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. It is possible to consider long - position opportunities in the low - level range [20] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. The relationship between the US and Iran is unstable, and the CFTC data shows a bullish sentiment. After the correction, the crude oil is expected to regain its strength, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying the main contract [21][22] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The supply in Singapore is tight, but the cost - end crude oil correction drives the fuel oil price down. After the correction, there is still upward space, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying the main contract [24] Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had some resource price increases, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the downstream industry weakens, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying [26] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. It is affected by the supply of raw materials and the improvement of demand. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation [28][29][30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. The supply is shrinking, the cost is supported, and the demand may be weak. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [31] PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The price is supported by exports and cost, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation [33] Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. It is driven by export demand and cost support. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - side trend [37] PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, the start - up is slightly increased, and the cost - end crude oil is adjusted. It is expected to be mainly in an oscillating adjustment, and cautious participation is recommended [39] PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The processing fee has risen, the supply is stable, and the demand is seasonally reduced. It is expected to oscillate, and cautious operation is recommended [41] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The overall load has increased, the port inventory is accumulating, and the cost is weakening. It is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern, and cautious operation is recommended [42] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The supply is shrinking, the inventory is at a low level, and it is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic. Cautious waiting and seeing is recommended [44] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The load is slightly reduced, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is mainly driven by the cost - end, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [45] Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash rose. The fundamentals are loose, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. The long - position sentiment is oscillating, but it should still be treated with caution [47] Glass - The previous trading day, glass rose. The fundamentals are in a loose pattern, and the inventory digestion needs time. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [48] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The trading sentiment may fluctuate, but it should be treated with caution [50] Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp rose. The inventory is accumulating, the terminal demand is stagnant, and the support is weak. It is expected that the price fluctuation before the Spring Festival will be limited [51][52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is required [53][54] Copper - The previous trading day, copper fell. The macro - environment is complex, the supply is affected by mines, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be adjusted before the Spring Festival [55] Aluminum - The previous trading day, aluminum and alumina fell. The alumina supply is loose, and the aluminum supply growth is limited. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [57][58] Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc fell. The supply is tightened, the demand is weak, and the inventory has not started to accumulate significantly. The price is expected to enter an adjustment period [60] Lead - The previous trading day, lead rose slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [62] Tin - The previous trading day, tin fell. The supply is tight, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is required [64] Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel fell. The cost may rise, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The overall situation of primary nickel is in excess, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [65] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal fell, and soybean oil rose. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted. The soybean meal demand is growing moderately, and the soybean oil demand is slightly improving. For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered, and for soybean oil, waiting and seeing is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][68] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose slightly. The inventory is expected to decline, the production is decreasing, and the export is increasing. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [69][71] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose. The US policy and China - Canada tariff adjustment have an impact. The inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for now [72][73] Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. The external market was under pressure. The USDA report is favorable, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the medium - to - long - term, but the short - term internal - external price difference is high. It is advisable to buy on dips after a full correction [74][76][77] Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly, and the external market fell. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic supply is under pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term [78][79] Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The current market is in the final stage of Spring Festival inventory preparation. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality have declined. It is advisable to wait for the correction and then go long in batches. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [81][82][83] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the Spring Festival. The first - quarter supply may face pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [84][85] Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level in February. It is recommended to wait and see for now [86] Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell slightly. The northern port inventory is low, the demand has slightly recovered, and the supply and demand are basically balanced. Corn starch may follow the corn market trend [87][88] Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is slightly shrinking, the inventory is decreasing, and the cost is slightly increasing. The short - term market is improving, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [89][90][91]