淡旺季切换，价格上方压力加大 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国经济数据超预期，通胀预期走强，降息预期推迟；国内降准降息预期落地；中美贸易谈判进行中。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 第一部分 核心观点 供给：4月，在产产能环比减少390万吨，开工率大幅下滑；矿石端，国内到港量维持正常，澳大利亚雨季影响结束 进口： 2025年3月中国氧化铝净出口28.88万吨，环比大幅增加，连续12个月净出口；进口亏损周度环比略有走阔，进出口通道仍处于关闭 需求：电解铝在产产能持续增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝目前冶炼成本在每吨2866，每吨盈利59元，成本变化不大，利润略有走阔；烧碱价格最新价3480元/吨，周度环比无变化 产业面，铝土矿量维持正常，较历史同期偏高，矿价周度环比大幅下滑，冶炼亏损转正，预计冶炼产能会得到恢复；进口亏损小幅收敛，但进出 口通道仍处于关闭状态，出口需求偏弱；盘面仓单维持在高位，远期产量压力较大。综合来看，矿价大 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 低库存下，宏观回暖或推升有色 核心观点 铜：宏观回暖，产业低库存，铜价或持续走强 上周沪铜主力期价整体在 7.7-7.8 万区间震荡，周中一度突破 7.8 万关口，随后冲高回落。5 月 8 日 Mysteel 数据显示，电解铜社 会库存为 12.64 万吨，较去年同期下降 27.66 万吨。产业低库存给予 铜价支撑，月差持续走强。宏观层面，国内降准降息等宏观政策刺 激，海外中美在瑞达成重要共识。预计铜价在宏观和产业利好共振之 下将向上突破，关注 7.9-8 万关口压力。此外，库存外高内低或使期 价表现内强外弱 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-12 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-12 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质性进展 观点分享： 中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院 副总理何立峰当地时间 11 日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高 层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中 美经贸磋商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声 明。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 国债期货 | ★★★★ | 国债期货：债市上周维持高位震荡，符合我们前期观点。5 月 7 日国新办一行一局一会会议 推出一揽子政策，宣布降准 0.5%，7 天逆回购利率调降 0.1%同时将带动后续 LPR 下调。会 议上亦介绍了其他结构性工具的调整与其他资本市场、实体经济的支持政策。受相关政策影 响，上周利率曲线有所走陡。4 月进出口数据全面好于预期，尽管对美出口收缩，但一带一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The presence of floating fibrous materials, suspected to be glass fibers, in the air near a furniture factory in Kunming has raised concerns among local residents regarding potential health risks and environmental impact [1][8]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Residents reported seeing shiny, fibrous materials floating in the air near a furniture factory, which caused skin irritation [1][8]. - A factory worker confirmed the visibility of these fibrous materials under sunlight, describing them as needle-like and floating into the factory [5][6]. Group 2: Investigation and Findings - The local environmental authority conducted an investigation and found a small amount of suspected glass fiber material in the vicinity of the furniture factory [11]. - The preliminary investigation suggested that the suspected glass fibers originated from the nearby Yunnan Copper Zinc Industry Co., Ltd., which had ceased production and was undergoing equipment dismantling [13][14]. - Approximately 2.5 tons of dismantled waste glass fiber materials were found at the site, which were likely contributing to the airborne fibers [14]. Group 3: Environmental Measures - The environmental authority has mandated the responsible parties to properly dispose of the waste glass fiber materials to prevent further environmental impact [14]. - As of May 9, 2025, the waste glass fiber and debris have been cleared from the site, and measures to improve pollution prevention during dismantling processes have been requested [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the UK reducing tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports. The EU plans to sue the US at the WTO and impose countermeasures on $950 billion worth of US imports [1]. - The market risk sentiment has improved due to the potential first tariff trade agreement. However, concerns remain about the escalation of tariff scale and geopolitical conflicts [1][20]. - The central bank's monetary policy adjustments, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, are expected to support the market and maintain a loose liquidity environment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Key Varieties - **Alumina**: The night session of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.46%. Overseas, Trump's tariff stance is inconsistent; domestically, the monetary environment is loosening. Alumina prices are falling, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Short - term Shanghai aluminum may be weak and volatile [2][24]. - **Crude Oil**: SC night session rose 1.71%. US crude inventories decreased last week. Some US producers may cut spending, and US oil production may have peaked. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but low prices may provide room for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran [3][12]. - **Shipping**: EC opened low and rebounded, with the 06 contract down 3.64%. Shipping rates in May are mostly stable or slightly decreased. The supply of European routes is in excess due to the spill - over of US route capacity. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [4][35]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: US initial jobless claims last week decreased more than expected, indicating a stable labor market despite increasing tariff risks [5]. - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce's press conference highlighted China's foreign trade resilience. China is firm on tariff issues, opposes unilateralism, and promotes multilateral cooperation [6]. - **Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of the Private Enterprise Promotion Law by breaking barriers, expanding space, and optimizing services [7]. c. Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index increased, ICE Brent crude oil rose, while London gold and LME metals mostly fell [8]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose. A - shares also increased due to central bank policies. Short - term stock indexes may show a trend, and a wide - straddle option buying strategy is recommended [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations and policy adjustments have loosened market liquidity. The focus is on the progress of tariff negotiations [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Methanol night session rose 0.14%. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased. Short - term methanol is expected to be bullish [13][14]. - **Rubber**: RU slightly declined. Domestic and Thai rubber production is expected to increase. Affected by US tariff policies, rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices were weak. Consumption has peaked, but cost fluctuations provide some support. Attention is paid to the implementation of stimulus policies [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures were weak, and soda ash futures fluctuated. Both are in a period of inventory digestion, and the process will take time [17]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are under pressure due to weak demand and limited cost support [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is facing pressure due to rising port inventories and limited downstream demand improvement [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined. The potential trade agreement has improved risk sentiment, but geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold purchases support gold prices. Gold may continue to be strong and consolidate [20][21]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable domestic demand support copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. Domestic demand is stable, and the market expects an increase in supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia and downstream procurement demand support nickel prices, but stainless steel demand is average. Nickel prices may fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply decreased slightly, demand increased in March, and inventory increased. Upstream mine prices are weakening, and lithium prices may decline further [26][27]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by steel mill复产, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It may be supported in the short term and weak in the medium term [28]. - **Steel**: Steel supply is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Demand is expected to weaken due to the rainy season and overseas tariffs. Steel prices may be weak and volatile [29]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices were weak, affected by coke prices and increasing supply [30]. - **Coke**: Coke prices were weak, with the failure of the second - round price increase and the expected price cut. It is affected by steel demand [31]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Corn may correct in the short term. Supply is tight at high prices, and there are concerns about import reserve auctions. It should be treated cautiously bullish [32]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are volatile due to economic uncertainties. Zhengzhou cotton is also fluctuating, and the market is waiting for new demand channels [33]. - **Shipping Index**: The European container shipping market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to supply - demand imbalances and tariff policies [35].

有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 2025 年 5 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色分化，铝增仓下行明显 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 1. 产业动态 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价增仓上行，主力期价突破 7.8 万关口，今日铜价冲高回 落。短期铜价冲高回落，主力期价在 7.8 万一线仍有较强的技术压 力。产业层面，电解铜低库存格局给予近月较强的支撑，基差月差 持续走强。短期可持续关注 7.8 万关口多空博弈，也可关注月间正 套 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in graduate education at Anhui University of Technology (AHT) from traditional on-campus training to practical market-oriented training through collaboration with industry partners [1][3]. Group 1: Collaboration with Industry - AHT has established 21 provincial-level joint training bases with companies like Chery New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. and Guoxuan High-Tech Co., Ltd., employing 289 industry mentors [3]. - The university has implemented a dual-mentor system, enhancing the training of master's students by integrating theoretical and practical learning [3][4]. Group 2: Dual-Track Curriculum - AHT's dual-track curriculum includes both theoretical courses and practical industry-oriented courses, designed in collaboration with companies like Anhui Andekeming Electronic Materials Technology Co., Ltd. [4]. - Students are required to complete at least six months of project work in the industry, with their theses based on real projects from these companies [4]. Group 3: Practical Applications and Outcomes - The collaboration has led to successful outcomes, with three out of six joint-trained master's students choosing to stay with their company after completing their projects [4]. - AHT's computer science students have developed a big data platform for the beef cattle industry, creating over 300,000 yuan in economic benefits and generating numerous job opportunities [6]. - The partnership with Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group has resulted in research projects that directly contribute to production processes, with 15 graduates taking on core roles in the company [8]. Group 4: Future Directions - AHT aims to build a new educational ecosystem that integrates education, talent, industry, and innovation chains, focusing on deepening cooperation with leading enterprises and research institutions [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 | 52.70 | | | | 活动指数 | | | | | | ...

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8140 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3320 元/吨（-130）、天津 3400 元/吨（-180）、 日照 3580 元/吨（-70）、东莞 3620 元/吨（-70）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易关税问题暂未解决，影响中美大豆贸易。 （2）国际大豆：美豆开启播种，进度超过预期。巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：巴西大豆逐渐到港，油厂开机率回升，豆粕供给预期将逐渐转为宽 松。现货市场五一节前备货与油厂开工出现错配，豆粕库存降至低点。 参考观点：豆粕短线或偏弱运行。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2128 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 4 月 30 日星期三 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...