Core Insights - A new company named Xinshengyuan New Materials Factory has been established in Nanpiao District, Huludao City, with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Liu Jun Kui [1] - The business scope includes various activities such as: - Common non-ferrous metal smelting - Sales of non-metallic minerals and products - Manufacturing of non-metallic mineral products - Manufacturing and sales of petroleum products (excluding hazardous chemicals) - Sales and production of casting molding materials - Sales and manufacturing of metal-based and ceramic-based composite materials - Wood processing and sales - Manufacturing and sales of graphite and carbon products - Production and sales of refractory materials - Sales of coal and its products - Mineral processing [1]

Market Overview - As of September 18, the futures concept sector declined by 3.05%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with Yunnan Copper, Guosheng Financial Holdings, and Great Wall Securities leading the losses [1][2] Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included: - F5G concept: +1.45% - Co-packaged optics (CPO): +1.35% - Copper cable high-speed connection: +1.27% - National big fund holdings: +1.26% - AI PC: +1.05% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Metal lead: -3.94% - Metal zinc: -3.88% - Gold concept: -3.08% - Futures concept: -3.05% [1] Capital Flow - The futures concept sector experienced a net outflow of 14.853 billion yuan, with 61 stocks seeing net outflows, and 28 stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in net outflows. The stock with the highest net outflow was Dongfang Wealth, with a net outflow of 4.991 billion yuan [1][2] - Other notable net outflows included: - CITIC Securities: -2.674 billion yuan - Guotai Junan: -746 million yuan - Shouchuang Securities: -512 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Performance - The stocks with the largest net outflows in the futures concept sector included: - 300059 Dongfang Wealth: -4.75%, turnover rate: 6.86%, net outflow: -4990.97 million yuan - 600030 CITIC Securities: -2.21%, turnover rate: 3.06%, net outflow: -2673.97 million yuan - 601211 Guotai Junan: -1.84%, turnover rate: 1.57%, net outflow: -745.51 million yuan [2][3] - Other significant declines included: - 002939 Great Wall Securities: -6.14% - 000878 Yunnan Copper: -6.23% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shunbo Alloy's stock price has experienced a decline of 5.03% on September 18, with a total market capitalization of 4.927 billion yuan, indicating a continuous downward trend over the past three days [1] Company Overview - Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. was established on March 21, 2003, and went public on August 28, 2020. The company specializes in the production and sale of recycled aluminum alloy ingots (liquid) [1] - The main revenue composition includes aluminum alloy ingots (liquid) at 93.30%, rolled aluminum products at 5.28%, other supplementary products at 1.11%, entrusted processing fees for aluminum alloy ingots at 0.31%, and aluminum particles at 0.01% [1] Fund Holdings - Huatai-PB Fund holds a significant position in Shunbo Alloy, with the Huatai-PB CSI 2000 Index Enhanced A Fund (019923) owning 371,200 shares, accounting for 0.67% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 144,800 yuan today, with a total floating loss of 52,000 yuan during the three-day decline [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund managers of Huatai-PB CSI 2000 Index Enhanced A include Sheng Hao, Lei Wenyuan, and Kong Lingye, with varying tenures and performance metrics [3] - Sheng Hao has a tenure of 9 years and 344 days, managing assets totaling 3.093 billion yuan, with the best return of 123.22% during his tenure [3] - Lei Wenyuan and Kong Lingye both have a tenure of 3 years and 46 days, managing assets of 1.042 billion yuan and 921 million yuan respectively, with Lei achieving a best return of 74.46% [3]

2025年09月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：储能需求旺盛，震荡运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪变化 | 6 | | 多晶硅：现货价格小幅抬升 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 18 日 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,790 | -820 | 940 | 0 | 1,450 | 3,220 | | ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market status and investment prospects of the electrolytic copper foil industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the market price of electrolytic copper (1) in late August 2025 is projected to be 79,237.1 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.94% and a month-on-month increase of 0.08% [1] - The price of electrolytic copper (1) in late August 2025 is noted to be the highest in the past five years for the same period [1]

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and industrial products have stabilized and rebounded. Soda ash is driven by macro - sentiment, but its fundamental surplus problem persists. It is advisable to wait for a rebound and then go short. - Glass is sensitive to macro - atmosphere fluctuations, and the spot market has good transactions. However, the mid - term inventory in some areas is high, and the industry needs capacity clearance in the long - term. Short - term sentiment drives the market, and the follow - up should focus on policy implementation and peak - season demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Price and Spread**: - Glass: Prices in East China and Central China increased, with the 2505 and 2509 contracts rising slightly. The 05 - contract basis decreased. - Soda ash: Most regional spot prices remained unchanged, the 2505 contract fell slightly, and the 2509 contract rose. The 05 - contract basis increased [1]. - **Supply**: - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output increased. - Glass: The float - glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: - Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory decreased while the delivery - warehouse inventory increased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: - New construction area increased slightly, construction area decreased, completion area decreased slightly, and sales area decreased significantly [1]. Report 2: Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The supply of natural rubber is stable with overseas raw materials rising and inventory decreasing. Demand has some changes with different tire enterprises' policies. The price is expected to be affected by macro factors in the short - term, and attention should be paid to raw - material output in the peak - season and the impact of La Nina [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, while the cup - rubber price increased. The basis of whole - latex rubber and non - standard price difference increased [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: - The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: - Production: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July had different changes. - Tire: The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires increased, and domestic tire production increased in July, but tire exports decreased to zero. - Import: The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased in July [2]. - **Inventory**: - The bonded - area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the warehouse - entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [2]. Report 3: Logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The log price is currently stable supported by cost. The arrival volume is low, and the inventory is low, providing strong price support. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the peak - season [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - Log futures prices increased slightly, and most spot prices remained unchanged. The basis of some contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: - The port shipment volume and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory in major Chinese ports increased, with increases in Shandong and Jiangsu [4]. - **Demand**: - The daily average outbound volume increased slightly in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu [4]. Report 4: Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View In the short - term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the price is likely to rise. In September, the supply reduction is not obvious, and there may be a slight inventory accumulation. The price is more affected by policy expectations, and the risk is high. Attention should be paid to the self - discipline meeting of polysilicon enterprises [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: - The average price of N - type poly - feedstock increased slightly, and the N - type material basis increased significantly [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: - The main - contract price decreased, and the spreads between different contracts had different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: - Weekly: Silicon wafer and polysilicon production increased. - Monthly: Polysilicon production, import, and export increased, and the net export decreased. Silicon wafer production, export, and net export increased, and the demand increased slightly [5]. - **Inventory**: - Polysilicon inventory increased, silicon wafer inventory decreased, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased [5]. Report 5: Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there is news of capacity clearance. The supply - demand relationship was in tight balance in August, and the supply pressure may decrease in the long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices, but pay attention to inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: - The price of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon increased, and the basis of some grades changed [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: - The spreads between different contracts had different changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: - Production: National and regional industrial silicon production increased, as well as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon production. The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. - Operating Rate: National and regional operating rates increased. - Export: Industrial silicon export volume increased [6]. - **Inventory**: - Inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and the social inventory increased slightly, and the contract and non - contract inventories also had small increases [6].

Macroeconomic and Industry Insights - In August, the Ministry of Finance reported corporate income tax revenue of 31,477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Personal income tax revenue reached 10,547 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1] - Vehicle purchase tax revenue was 1,334 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 17.7% [1] - Stamp duty revenue totaled 2,844 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, including securities transaction stamp duty revenue of 1,187 billion yuan, which surged by 81.7% year-on-year [1] Commodity Market Updates - Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decrease by 8.05% from September 1-15, 2025, with a yield drop of 6.94% and an oil extraction rate decline of 0.21% [1] - The expected export volume for palm oil is 404,688 tons, down 24.7% compared to the same period last month [1] - Coking coal auction prices in Linfen market showed mixed results, with 290,000 tons sold and an average price increase of 54 yuan/ton for 7 companies, while 4 companies experienced an average price drop of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Lithium carbonate prices continue to rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate index price at 73,116 yuan/ton, up 281 yuan/ton; average price at 73,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [1] - The average transaction price for multi-crystalline silicon n-type raw materials was 53,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.57% [1] - The average price for n-type granular silicon was 49,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.13% increase [1] Production Data - In August 2025, China's alumina production reached 7.925 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - Cumulative alumina production from January to August was 60.523 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year [1] - China's electrolytic aluminum production in August was 3.800 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] - Cumulative electrolytic aluminum production from January to August was 30.138 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] - In August, China's copper product production was 2.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - Cumulative refined copper production from January to August was 9.891 million tons, up 10.1% year-on-year [1] Market Predictions - Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast for next year to $4,000 per ounce and silver price forecast to $45 per ounce [1] - As of September 15, total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased to 13.089 million barrels, with reductions in light, medium, and heavy oil inventories [1] - Attention is drawn to the Canadian central bank's interest rate decision scheduled for the evening of September 17 [1]

Core Points - Hunan province is actively promoting the digital transformation of its manufacturing industry, aiming to support 2,000 enterprises in achieving digital, networked, and intelligent upgrades during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] - The digital transformation has expanded from single-point initiatives to comprehensive implementations across various sectors, with a focus on creating benchmarks for enterprises, industries, and regions [2][3] - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies is a key component of this transformation, with Hunan releasing 21 industrial vertical models and 50 AI application scenarios to promote "AI + manufacturing" development [2][3] Company Insights - Sangte Hydraulic Technology Co., Ltd. has implemented a digital management system that has improved production scheduling and reduced inventory by 20% to 30%, alleviating cash flow pressures [2] - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. has established a digital control center that enables production process visualization, equipment automation, and online data analysis, contributing to the digital transformation of the non-ferrous metal smelting industry [2] - Xiangtou Jintian Titanium Metal Co., Ltd. is recognized as a benchmark project for digital transformation, utilizing a digital management system to collect over 100 material performance indicators, enhancing data traceability and precision in production [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's refined copper production in August 2025 reached 1.301 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - In August, only three smelters underwent maintenance, while two new smelters in East China continued to ramp up production, contributing to a slight month-on-month increase in refined copper output [1] - The high sulfuric acid prices in August helped offset smelting losses, and the processing fees for copper concentrate showed a trend of rising and then falling, which also supported the production levels [1] Group 2 - In September, five smelters are scheduled for maintenance, affecting a total of 1 million tons of crude smelting capacity, leading to an expected production decrease of 14,000 tons compared to August [1] - Apart from routine maintenance, a significant reduction in production is anticipated due to tight supply of anode copper, which is expected to impact 60% of the surveyed sample, resulting in a substantial decline in September output [1]

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in August 2025 reached 1.301 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - Cumulative production from January to August 2025 totaled 9.891 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [1] Production Data Summary - Total production of ten non-ferrous metals in August was 6.978 million tons, with a cumulative total of 54.317 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% for the month and 3.1% cumulatively [2] - Refined copper (electrolytic copper) production for August was 1.301 million tons, with a cumulative total of 9.891 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 14.8% for the month and 10.1% cumulatively [2] - Lead production in August was 667,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 5.116 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for the month and 0.9% cumulatively [2] - Zinc production in August was 651,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 4.836 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 22.8% for the month and 5.4% cumulatively [2] - Primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in August was 3.800 million tons, with a cumulative total of 30.138 million tons, indicating a slight decrease of 0.5% for the month but a 2.2% increase cumulatively [2] - Aluminum alloy production in August was 1.635 million tons, with a cumulative total of 12.324 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.2% for the month and 15.3% cumulatively [2] - Copper products production in August was 2.222 million tons, with a cumulative total of 16.598 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 9.8% for the month and 10.7% cumulatively [2] - Aluminum products production in August was 5.548 million tons, with a cumulative total of 43.790 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% for the month and no change cumulatively [2]