2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-24 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 春节前最后一个交易日螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3055 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 5 元/吨（0.163%）。当 日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比增加 2694 吨。主力合约持仓量为 194.24 万手，环比减少 87095 手。现货市场 方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/ 吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘价为 3222 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 332840 吨, 环比增加 34986 吨。主 ...

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -16.0 | -2.10% | | | I2605 | | 746.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as overseas market fluctuations, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations to offer investment suggestions for each market segment. For instance, the stock index futures are expected to be in a structural market, while the bond market is influenced by factors like financial data and "Two Sessions" policies [19][20][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas market volatility during the Spring Festival holiday may affect the A - share market. The tariff rulings and subsequent tariff increase announcements in the US have caused market expectation chaos. The rise in oil and silver prices may stimulate the oil and gas, precious metals, and AI application sectors. The M1 - M2 spread narrowing is beneficial for market liquidity. The stock index is expected to be oscillating strongly, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices remaining strong. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads for options [19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The January domestic financial data shows that the money supply is stronger than the financing demand, and the holiday high - frequency consumption data is also divided. Overseas tariff policies are uncertain. The central bank's attitude to protect market liquidity is clear, which is favorable for the bond market. However, as the "Two Sessions" approach, bond market sentiment may become cautious. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in TS contracts and wait and see for arbitrage [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The impact of origin weather on production is limited, and the Brazilian export volume has increased. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short at high prices [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price rose during the Spring Festival. Brazil's sugar production is almost over, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production is at a high level, the growth rate has slowed down. The domestic sugar supply is under pressure, but the international price increase may drive the Zhengzhou sugar price up in the short term, with a long - term bottom - oscillating trend [29][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The external market prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the export decline narrowed. The geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel policy have an impact on the market. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the oil price is expected to be oscillating strongly [35][36][37]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn price rose. The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn and short the 05 corn lightly at high prices [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is declining, but the short - term decline may be limited. It is advisable to go long on the 05 contract in small quantities [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanut [43][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [46][48]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is acceptable, and the fruit price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long 5 and short 10 arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market price of cotton declined. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase. The domestic cotton market has certain support, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the overall fundamentals weakened. The steel price is expected to be oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are gradually resuming production. The international and domestic coal markets need to be monitored. The coking coal price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys has strong support. It is advisable to go long on dips as a long - term position [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The overseas gold and silver markets showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Geopolitical risks, the risk of US economic stagflation, and trade policy uncertainties support the price. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the 5 - day moving average [67][68][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical and macro factors support the price of precious metals. It is advisable to go long on platinum on dips and wait and see for palladium [70][71]. - **Copper**: The US tariff is expected to decline in the short term but may exist in the long term. The copper price is supported in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The decline in the supply - side operating rate supports the spot price. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff disturbance does not change the supply - demand support pattern. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating strongly [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate strongly [83][87]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance. The price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [88][89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance and go long on dips lightly [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. The low - position long - term positions can be held [93][94][95]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is advisable to buy on sufficient pullbacks [96][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories. The price may rebound in the short term [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is trying to maintain prices. It is advisable to seize low - price opportunities [100][102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, and the price is at a high level. It is necessary to operate cautiously [103][105]. - **Tin**: The concern about AI has increased. The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies [107][108][109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is weak. The demand is declining, and the supply is changing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and stop profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread on rallies [110][111][112]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct positive spread arbitrage [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: It is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply gap after the holiday. It is advisable to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [116][117]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur supply is increasing, and the low - sulfur near - end is strengthening. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [119][120][121]. - **LPG**: The international market is strong, and the domestic market is expected to be oscillating strongly [123][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The market trading theme changes frequently. It is advisable to exit the TTF or JKM positions and hold the HH short positions for the second quarter [126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions [129][130]. - **BZ & EB**: The fundamentals of styrene are weakening. The price is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [131][132]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. The price is expected to be oscillating within a range [133][134]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [135][136]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [137]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is advisable to hold long positions [139]. - **Plastics and PP**: The L contract warehouse receipts are flat, and the PP contract warehouse receipts are accumulating. It is advisable to wait and see for the L 2605 contract and short the PP 2605 contract lightly [140][141][142]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is necessary to wait and see [143][144]. - **PVC**: The price is mainly oscillating. It is advisable to go long on dips [146][147][148]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [150][151][154]. - **Glass**: The price is running weakly. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [153][154]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitics, the price is expected to be strongly oscillating [156][157]. - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [159][160][161]. - **Pulp**: The US dollar quotation is rising, but the high inventory restricts the rebound. It is advisable to wait and see and conduct range trading [162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market rebound is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [166]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday. It is advisable for aggressive investors to go long in small quantities [168][170]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The external market is strengthening. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold the short position for the NR 04 contract [171][173][174]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts accumulated significantly before the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract [175][177].

动画公司能做动画，也能"做"手术，以动作捕捉技术为"桥"，成为跨越娱乐与医疗两个领域的"通才"。 小车到大船、小料到"大餐"、小动画到大健康，智能化转型浪潮中，跨界发展蕴含将"小材"委以"大 用"的密码。 跨界的基点是"家底"。车在路上跑，船在水上游，看似"各行其道"，但发展根基"殊途同归"——都以电 池为心脏。电动船的电池组容易热失控，安全性成为薄弱环节。而新能源汽车的电池技术更完备、路线 更成熟，扎实"家底"让企业得以跨界适应"两栖"、拓宽道路。 几则新闻，读起来颇有意趣。 知名车企跨界造船，不仅把成本打了下来，还造出国内首个获中国船级社权威认证的内河电动船。 以调味品为主业的企业，凭借对家庭饮食场景的深刻理解，成功进入智能终端领域，为智慧生活献上健 康"大餐"。 同理，动画企业"走近"手术台，也是立足老本行开拓新场景，形成比较优势、解锁新赛道。转型升级不 一定要从头再来，"家底"本身就是解锁新发展的钥匙。 跨界成功的关键在于找到"契合点"。"小材大用"行得通，就是因为自身所长与行业所需"一拍即合"。水 运能力不足，车企积极行动填补市场缺口。人体难透视，动画孪生技术可提升诊治"眼力"。 要"跨"，更要"融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for deepening reforms in the energy sector to adapt to a new energy system, focusing on high-quality development, safety, and low-carbon transition amidst complex international energy dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Achievements in Energy Reform - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant progress in energy system reforms, enhancing development momentum and optimizing resource allocation through policy measures [2]. - The energy market structure has improved, with nearly 80% of electricity prices determined by market competition and over 970,000 registered electricity market entities [2]. - The establishment of a unified national energy market is underway, with a preliminary national electricity market and a developing oil and gas market structure [3]. Group 2: Future Directions for Energy Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to address systemic barriers in energy supply, consumption, and market mechanisms to achieve carbon peak and build a new energy system by 2030 [5][6]. - There is a need to accelerate the establishment of mechanisms for green transformation in energy supply, focusing on increasing renewable energy capacity and improving the flexibility of energy systems [6]. - Enhancing the resilience and safety of energy systems is crucial, requiring a shift from traditional energy balance methods to more flexible and collaborative approaches [8]. Group 3: Proposed Measures for Energy Reform - A resilient energy supply mechanism should be developed, integrating renewable and fossil energy sources while enhancing the capacity for resource optimization [9]. - A green consumption guidance mechanism is necessary to promote sustainable energy use, including the establishment of a green energy consumption incentive system [10]. - The market and pricing mechanisms must adapt to the new energy system, ensuring that prices reflect supply and demand dynamics and facilitating efficient resource allocation [11].

以党的二十届四中全会精神为引领 不断开创煤炭高质量发展新局面 国家能源局煤炭司司长 刘涛 全面推进煤炭清洁高效利用，绿色低碳发展取得新成效。研究制定煤炭洗选加工、煤炭与新能源融合发 展等政策措施，出台实施专项行动计划，坚持以减污降碳、提高能效为主攻方向，推进煤炭全生命周期 清洁高效利用水平快速提升。严格落实绿色环保办矿要求，积极推广充填开采、保水开采等绿色开采技 术，推动煤矿用能清洁替代，推动矿区全面绿色转型。加强煤炭质量源头管理，要求新建煤矿配套建设 选煤厂，因地制宜推广干法分选等技术工艺，煤矸石综合利用率、原煤入选率稳步提升。推动煤炭消费 集中化利用，稳步推进煤制油气和富油煤分质利用产业示范，建成全球最大清洁煤电煤炭利用体系。 加快推进煤层气（煤矿瓦斯）开发利用，资源环境安全综合效益充分显现。加大煤层气勘探勘探开发力 度，推动沁水盆地、鄂尔多斯盆地东缘等产业基地持续增储上产，2025年煤层气产量达到155亿立方 米、是2020年的2.3倍，成为天然气供应的重要补充。加大煤矿瓦斯防治技术装备创新和推广应用，推 动瓦斯抽采方式由井下向井上下联合转变，瓦斯利用范围由高浓度为主向全浓度转变，2025年瓦斯利用 量 ...

截至发稿，姚晨曦累计任职时间10年317天，现任基金资产总规模19.48亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 89.22%， 任职期间最差基金回报-35.91%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，中海基金旗下1只基金重仓特变电工。中海环保新能源混合（398051）四季度减持39.85万 股，持有股数115.61万股，占基金净值比例为3.13%，位居第四大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约 167.63万元。 中海环保新能源混合（398051）成立日期2010年12月9日，最新规模8.22亿。今年以来收益14.26%，同 类排名548/8994；近一年收益62.51%，同类排名837/8199；成立以来收益171.1%。 中海环保新能源混合（398051）基金经理为姚晨曦。 2月24日，特变电工涨5.04%，截至发稿，报30.20元/股，成交44.28亿元，换手率2.96%，总市值1525.94 亿元 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，2月24日，煤炭板块震荡走高，陕西黑猫涨停，云煤能源、宝泰隆、安泰集团、美锦能 源、华电能源跟涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality development in the coal industry, guided by the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, aiming to establish a modern coal industry system that ensures energy security and promotes green and intelligent development [2][4]. Group 1: Achievements and Developments - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the coal industry has achieved historic accomplishments by focusing on high-quality development and implementing supply-side structural reforms, leading to significant changes in coal production and consumption methods [4]. - By 2025, the national output of raw coal is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, an increase of over 900 million tons compared to 2020, establishing a solid foundation for stable energy supply [4]. - The number of coal mines has decreased to over 4,000, with large coal mines (producing over 1.2 million tons) accounting for 85% of total capacity, indicating a significant improvement in production scale and efficiency [5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The coal industry is advancing in intelligent construction, with over 65% of coal production capacity expected to be automated by the end of 2025, significantly enhancing safety and production efficiency [6]. - New technologies, such as large-scale intelligent mining equipment, have been developed, achieving international leading levels in technical standards [6]. Group 3: Environmental and Clean Utilization Efforts - The industry is focusing on clean and efficient utilization of coal, with policies aimed at reducing pollution and carbon emissions while enhancing energy efficiency [7]. - By 2025, coalbed methane production is expected to reach 15.5 billion cubic meters, 2.3 times that of 2020, contributing to natural gas supply [7][8]. Group 4: Future Plans and Strategic Goals - The coal industry aims to achieve a good start in the "15th Five-Year Plan" by ensuring stable coal supply and focusing on industry transformation and governance improvements [10]. - The establishment of five major coal supply guarantee bases is planned, which will account for approximately 80% of national coal production capacity, ensuring a stable supply [5][11]. - The industry will continue to promote technological innovation and the integration of digital technologies to enhance traditional coal production processes [12].