Core Viewpoint - The company, China Coal Energy (01898), has received a registration notice from the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, allowing it to issue medium-term notes totaling RMB 5 billion [1] Group 1 - The registered amount for the medium-term notes is RMB 5 billion, valid for two years from the date of the registration notice [1] - The joint lead underwriters for this issuance are CITIC Securities, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and CITIC Bank [1] - The company can issue the medium-term notes in tranches during the validity period and must disclose the issuance results through approved channels [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) has received a registration notice from the China Interbank Market Dealers Association for its medium-term notes, allowing the company to issue up to RMB 5 billion in registered notes over the next two years [1] Group 1 - The registered amount for the medium-term notes is RMB 5 billion, valid for two years from the date of the registration notice [1] - The joint lead underwriters for the issuance are CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China CITIC Bank [1] - The company plans to issue the medium-term notes in tranches during the registration period and will disclose the issuance results through approved channels [1] Group 2 - The company will issue the medium-term notes in accordance with the relevant rules and guidelines, including the Non-Financial Enterprise Debt Financing Instruments Registration and Issuance Rules [1] - The company is committed to ensuring proper information disclosure as required by the registration notice [1]

Group 1 - UBS forecasts that the price of Chinese thermal coal for the year 2026 will be between 750 to 800 RMB per ton [1][6] - Price increases are expected to be concentrated in the summer replenishment window from May to June, influenced by high international energy prices and fluctuations in Indonesian supply [1][6] - In a tight supply scenario, prices may briefly test 900 RMB per ton, but sustained increases are unlikely due to China's rapid policy response capabilities [1][6] Group 2 - UBS projects QHD5500 coal prices for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 750 RMB, 720 RMB, and 670 RMB per ton respectively, reflecting a tightening global energy market and slight impacts from Indonesia's quota reductions [4] - The target price for China Shenhua (601088.SH) A-shares and China Shenhua (01088) H-shares is set at 48.6 RMB and 48 HKD respectively, with a "neutral" rating [4] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) has a target price of 11.4 HKD, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) has a target price of 22.8 RMB, both maintaining a "sell" rating due to current stock prices reflecting fundamentals [4]

Group 1 - UBS forecasts that the price of thermal coal in China will be between 750 to 800 RMB per ton for the full year of 2026, with price increases expected during the summer replenishment window in May and June [1] - The potential for prices to briefly test 900 RMB per ton exists under tight supply conditions, but sustained increases are unlikely due to China's responsive policy coordination capabilities [1] - The projected QHD5500 coal prices for 2026 to 2028 are 750 RMB, 720 RMB, and 670 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight impact from tightening global energy markets and Indonesia's quota reductions [1] Group 2 - China Shenhua (601088.SH) and China Shenhua (01088) have target prices set at 48.6 RMB and 48 HKD respectively, with a "neutral" rating [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) has a target price of 11.4 HKD, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) has a target price of 22.8 RMB, both maintaining a "sell" rating due to current stock prices reflecting fundamentals [1]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock market experienced a significant decline on March 23, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 3.48% and the Korean Composite Index dropping by 6.49% [2] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.63% to 3813.28 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 3.76% [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of about 145 billion yuan compared to the previous day [3] Sector Performance - The A-share market saw over 5200 stocks decline, with more than 140 stocks hitting the daily limit down. Key sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, real estate, and financials experienced significant downturns [4] - Conversely, the coal sector saw gains, with companies like Yunmei Energy and Liaoning Energy hitting the daily limit up, and Shanxi Coking Coal rising by over 9% [11] Financial Sector Analysis - The financial sector, including insurance, banking, and brokerage firms, collectively declined, with China Life falling over 5% and major brokerages like CITIC Securities and China International Capital Corporation dropping around 4% [9] - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term outlook for the insurance and brokerage sectors remains positive, with expectations of improved performance driven by stable market conditions and potential catalysts from quarterly reports [9] Coal Sector Insights - The coal sector is benefiting from various factors, including reduced coal imports from Indonesia and rising international coal prices due to geopolitical tensions [12] - As of March 20, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 735 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6 yuan per ton [12] - The outlook for coal prices is optimistic, with expectations of steady increases driven by improved demand from the chemical sector and ongoing geopolitical conflicts affecting global coal supply [13] Gold and Silver Market - International precious metal prices have seen a significant drop, with COMEX silver falling over 11% and gold dropping more than 10% [6][7] Company-Specific Developments - Huadian Liao Energy has seen a continuous rise, hitting the daily limit up for six consecutive trading days, closing at 6.89 yuan per share [15]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a general adjustment today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 3.63% to close at 3813.28 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 3.76% to 13345.51 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 3.49% to 3235.22 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropped by 4.31% to 1261.44 points. Overall, 305 stocks rose and 5170 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 2431.5 billion yuan, an increase of 144.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][14]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only the coal and oil & petrochemical sectors saw gains, with increases of 0.20% and 0.06% respectively. The sectors that led the decline included social services, beauty care, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, textile and apparel, and electronics, with declines of 6.41%, 6.02%, 5.56%, 5.50%, and 5.44% respectively [1][14]. Sector Highlights - The only rising concept sector today was the selected coal mining, while relatively resilient sectors included central enterprise coal, industrial gases, photovoltaic glass, lithium mining, photovoltaic rooftops, oil and gas extraction, silicon energy, new energy, sodium-ion batteries, robotics, phosphorus chemicals, lithium battery anodes, photovoltaics, and power batteries [2][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry is in a state of basic balance between supply and demand, with both supply and demand increasing. This week, the increase in apparent demand is greater than the increase in production, maintaining seasonal destocking. The steel price has risen to the upper limit of the range, and there is a probability of price increase in the short - term due to the influence of raw materials. The shock center of rebar will rise [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Short - term iron ore prices are supported by factors such as accelerated steel mill复产 and restricted liquidity of some spot varieties. The supply of iron ore has increased, and the demand for molten iron has rebounded significantly. The inventory of steel mills has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. In the future, the main iron ore contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke has an expectation of bottoming out and rebounding. The supply of coke and coking coal has increased, and the demand has also risen after the end of the two sessions. The inventory of coking plants has decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports has increased. It is recommended to go long on coke 2605 contract and long coking coal and short coke for arbitrage [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Industry - Silicon iron has a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the cost is also supported. It is expected that the supply will continue to grow. The price is expected to fluctuate widely and run strongly. Manganese silicon has cost support, and the supply growth rate is lower than expected. The price has bottom - line support, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply changes and cost changes [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts have different degrees of changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price decreased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slab decreased and remained unchanged respectively. The costs of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.9 to 839.8, with a growth rate of 2.3% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 28.7 to 1946.2, with a decrease rate of 1.5%. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.9 to 9.9, with a growth rate of 10.2%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 70.4 to 868.5, with a growth rate of 8.8% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of 05 contracts of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap also increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 394.9 to 2215.0, with a decrease rate of 15.1%. The global shipping volume increased by 151.0 to 3048.8, with a growth rate of 5.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1%. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 3.1 to 321.0, with a growth rate of 1.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 89.1 to 17098.4, with a decrease rate of 0.5%. The inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 105.0 to 9034.1, with a growth rate of 1.2% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts increased to varying degrees. The basis of coke and coking coal contracts also changed [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 64.2, with a growth rate of 0.5%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 47.3, with a growth rate of 0.7% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1% [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 2.8 to 981.5, with a decrease rate of 0.3%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 35.6 to 1005.0, with a growth rate of 3.7% [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Industry Futures and Spot - The closing prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon main contracts increased. The spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions also changed to varying degrees [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions changed slightly. The production profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon also changed [7]. Supply - The silicon iron output increased by 0.7 to 10.4, with a growth rate of 7.2%. The manganese silicon supply decreased slightly, and the operating rate has declined for several consecutive weeks [7]. Demand - The demand for silicon iron and manganese silicon increased. The molten iron output increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1% [7]. Inventory Changes - The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 to 5.9, with a decrease rate of 2.9%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.9 to 38.5, with a growth rate of 2.4% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry [2]. Core Insights - Domestic coal prices are beginning to rise, driven by stable downstream demand and favorable market conditions influenced by international geopolitical conflicts and reduced coal imports from Indonesia [5]. - The report highlights that the current market dynamics favor companies with overseas production capabilities and those closely related to coal chemical products [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The coal industry has shown a strong performance over the past year, with significant price movements influenced by external factors [1]. 2. Dynamic Data Tracking 2.1 Thermal Coal - As of March 20, the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 737 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +0.14% [2]. - The inventory of coal at nine ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.57 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of -3.65% [2]. 2.2 Metallurgical Coal - The production of coking coal is steadily recovering, with prices for main coking coal at Jing Tang Port reaching 1620 CNY/ton, a weekly increase of +3.18% [3]. - The operating rate of sample steel mills' blast furnaces was reported at 79.8%, an increase of +1.44 percentage points week-on-week [3]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and Guanghui Energy are highlighted as favorable investments due to their strategic positioning in the current market [5]. - Other companies with strong configuration value include Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., and Shanxi Coal International [5].

Core Insights - The main focus of the news is the significant inflow of capital into various stocks, highlighting the top 20 stocks by capital inflow as of March 23, with notable performances in sectors such as automotive, power equipment, and coal [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - BYD saw a capital inflow of 1.731 billion, with a price increase of 5.47% [2] - GCL-Poly Energy experienced a capital inflow of 1.426 billion, with a price increase of 7.64% [2] - Shunhao Co. reported a capital inflow of 1.018 billion, with a price increase of 9.97% [2] - Jinfat Technology had a capital inflow of 711 million, with a price increase of 10.02% [2] - Wolong Electric Drive received a capital inflow of 710 million, with a price increase of 8.04% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The automotive sector, represented by BYD and Haima Automobile, showed strong capital inflows, indicating investor confidence [1][2] - The power equipment sector, including GCL-Poly Energy and Wolong Electric Drive, also attracted significant capital, reflecting growth potential [1][2] - The coal sector, represented by Shanxi Coal and China Shenhua, displayed mixed performance with varying capital inflows and stock price changes [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is experiencing strong supply and demand, and there are opportunities to go long on the basis. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts [3][6]. - The coking coal and coke market is showing a trend of catch - up growth. The main logic is still the geopolitical conflict, and the market focus is on the development of geopolitical conflicts and the formation of positive feedback from long - position funds [61]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a high - level shock. It is not recommended to chase high or short, and it can be operated according to the range shock [122]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: The output of the long - process steel has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has increased by 7 to 228.2wt this week. The daily consumption of scrap steel is slowly recovering, slightly weaker than the seasonality. After the impact of environmental protection restrictions fades, the steel output is on the rise [6]. - **Demand**: The seasonal demand for building materials is rising, and both supply and demand are increasing. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has reached the performance of the seasonal peak season, and whether it can exceed expectations needs 1 - 2 weeks of verification. The demand for medium plates and cold - rolled products is also good [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has started to decline. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the greatest pressure is on hot - rolled coils, while the inventory - to - sales ratios of other products are acceptable [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar fluctuates within a narrow range, and the basis of hot - rolled coils has increased slightly. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 71, a week - on - week decrease of 1; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 17, a week - on - week increase of 8 [6]. - **Profit**: Recently, the increase in the price of furnace materials is higher than that of finished products, and the overall profitability of steel mills is weak. The actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit, and the profit of rebar is slightly better than that of plates. The profitability rate of steel mills is 42.42%, with a week - on - week change of 1.29% [6]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils has returned to a premium, while rebar is mostly in a discount structure. The basis of hot - rolled coils is more suitable for participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage, and the spot liquidity is better. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the industrial valuation is relatively low [6]. - **Macro and Risk Preference**: The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market has not subsided. The black sector is mainly affected by the spill - over of market sentiment. In the short term, coal may be driven upward through energy substitution and increased logistics costs [6]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, it is recommended to go long. During the climbing period of molten iron output and steel apparent demand, there is a natural bullish protection for furnace materials. Coupled with the geopolitical premium, the logic of strong cost support for steel has not been falsified. Unilateral trading can continue to participate in pulse - rebound bands. With the recent decline in the basis, attention can be paid to opportunities for going long on the basis or spot - futures positive arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the best choice [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Participate in pulse rebounds. Arbitrage: Take profit when the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar reaches 175+. Spot - futures: Look for opportunities to go long on the basis of hot - rolled coils or engage in spot - futures positive arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually recovering. This week, the output of five major steel products is 839.82 (+18.85), and the demand is 839.82 (+68.84). After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand continue to recover, and the inventory has started to decline. The blast furnaces of steel mills have started to resume production. This week, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 228.15 (+6.95), and the profitability rate of steel mills is 42.42% (+1.29%). There is still room for further resumption of production [61]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production quickly. The customs clearance at the Mongolian coal port remains at a high level, and the market transaction situation has improved. The overseas coking coal market is weakly stable, and the purchase intention of market participants has increased, but the price is still inverted [61]. - **Coke Supply**: Coking plants are under normal environmental protection restrictions. This week, the daily average coke output is 111.5 (+0.7), and the coking profit is 38 (+41). Affected by the rising price of chemical by - products, the profitability of coking plants is good [61]. - **Inventory**: The downstream purchasing sentiment is rising. The mines are selling well. The downstream coking and steel enterprises are in the resumption stage. Coupled with the impact of the Middle East conflict, the purchasing enthusiasm is high, and the coking coal and coke inventory is continuously transferred to the downstream [61]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the first round of price cuts by steel mills, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1680, and after the price increase, it is around 1730. The warehouse - receipt cost of Mongolian coal is around 1200 [61]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 42.42% (+1.29%), and the coking profit is 38 (+41) [61]. - **Summary**: The main logic is still the geopolitical conflict. The market's trading on the Iranian issue has developed from "inflation shock" to "growth shock". Under this market atmosphere, the market sentiment has weakened, and the prices of some supply - reduced products have reached high levels. The coking coal market has shown a catch - up growth. The key to the market lies in the development of geopolitical conflicts and the formation of positive feedback from long - position funds [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: If the coking coal 09 contract hits the daily limit on Monday, it is recommended to go long with a light position and buy call options. Spot - futures positive arbitrage positions can be entered [61]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The Reuters shipping data this period shows a week - on - week increase of 50.3 tons per day to 469 tons per day. The arrivals in China have also increased. The port inventory has decreased by 133.14 tons to 17814.18 tons, but it is still at a high level [122]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has increased by 6.95 to 228.15 tons this period. The daily average port desilting volume has increased to 335.92 tons. The port inventory has decreased, mainly due to the policy that steel mills can pick up Jinbuba powder at the port last week [122]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased by 133.14 tons to 17814.18 tons, but it is still at a high level [122]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills is at a low level [122]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [122]. - **Summary**: The price of iron ore is in a high - level range shock. Due to the undetermined negotiation between China's mines and BHP, it is difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term. Without new restrictive policies, it is also difficult for the price to break through upward. It is not recommended to chase high or short, and it can be operated according to the range shock [122]. - **Investment View**: Neutral [122]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Wait and see. Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being [122].