Market Overview - After the Spring Festival holiday, Hong Kong stocks faced pressure, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.1% to 26,413.35 points, and a total trading volume of 165.37 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.91%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.22% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - PetroChina (00857) led blue-chip gains, rising 3.7% to 9.52 HKD, contributing 11.57 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included Henderson Land (00012) up 3% and Midea Group (00300) up 2.73%, while Alibaba (09988) fell 4.91%, dragging the index down by 101.66 points [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector was a major drag on the market, with Alibaba down nearly 5% and Tencent down over 2% [3] - Robotics stocks surged, with Yujian (02432) up 21.4% following a successful Spring Festival performance, while AI model stocks also showed strong gains [3][4] - Oil stocks rose due to escalating geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil prices reaching a high of 66.70 USD per barrel [6] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the robotics industry's advancements are crucial for its transition from experimental to practical applications, with significant growth expected from 2021 to 2025 [4] - The AI model sector is transitioning from free trials to paid subscriptions, indicating a shift towards sustainable monetization [4] Notable Stock Movements - SOTON (02498) reported a significant reduction in net losses for 2025, achieving profitability in Q4, which contributed to a 9.24% increase in stock price [8] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) rose 6.34% amid expectations of increased tanker profitability due to geopolitical tensions [9] - Stone Four Pharmaceutical Group (02005) issued a profit warning, predicting a 45%-60% decline in profits for 2025 due to various market pressures [10]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.10% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 2.91% [1] - AI applications, robotics, and oil stocks saw gains, while internet technology stocks generally fell, with Baidu down over 6% and Alibaba down nearly 5% [1] - Semiconductor stocks weakened, with Hua Hong Semiconductor down nearly 6% and SMIC down over 3% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Legislative Council member Wu Jiezhuang announced that the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses is expected to be issued in March, suggesting that eligible citizens could receive stablecoin airdrops or consumption vouchers to stimulate local consumption [1] - CITIC Securities believes that fiat-backed stablecoins may become the most accepted and secure mainstream stablecoin form, maintaining core functions of value measurement, transfer, storage, and inter-temporal value in the Web3 world [1] - Concerns about the impact of stablecoins on fiat currencies and their minting rights depend on their support for economic activities and the strength of the fiat they are pegged to [1] Group 3 - Analysts predict that Hong Kong tech stocks will remain weak in the near term due to intense competition in delivery and red envelope services around the Spring Festival, with expectations for stabilization only after Tencent and other companies report earnings in March [2] - Everbright Securities noted that tech stocks are currently not a major focus for investors, with concerns about the business development of companies like Alibaba and Baidu leading to significant declines in related stocks [2] - Recent reports from招商证券 indicate that the AI application sector is experiencing simultaneous technological breakthroughs and intensified commercialization competition, supported by national strategies for long-term development [2] Group 4 - China Galaxy Securities suggests focusing on sectors such as precious metals and energy, which may experience upward fluctuations due to uncertainties surrounding Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions [3] - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with reduced valuation pressure following recent corrections, and potential rebounds expected in the context of accelerated AI model updates and applications [3]

每经记者｜马原 每经编辑｜金冥羽 记者|马原 编辑|金冥羽 易启江 校对|程鹏 2月20日，港股迎来农历马年第一个交易日。三大指数集体下跌。截至收盘，恒生指数跌1.1%，报26413.35点，恒生科技指数跌2.91%，国企指数跌 1.22%。 科网股多数下跌，百度集团跌超6%，金蝶国际、哔哩哔哩跌超5%，阿里巴巴跌4.91%，网易跌4.27%，小米集团、中芯国际跌超3%，美团跌1.58%，腾讯 控股跌2.06%。 受马年春晚带动，机器人火速"出圈"，机器人概念股爆发，越疆涨超21%，首程控股涨近12%，速腾聚创涨超9%。 石油概念股上涨，中远海能涨6.34%，中国石油股份涨3.7%，中国海洋石油涨2.23%。消息面上，国际油价近期走高，市场忧虑美国与伊朗紧张局势升 级，两国在中东产油区加强军事活动。 值得一提的是，智谱尾盘涨幅扩大至42.72%，股价报725港元，总市值达3232亿港元。2月以来累计大涨220.51%。 智谱(2513) < C 闭市 02-20 16:08:42 725.000 额32.4亿 股本4.46亿 市盈 万得 MRO 型 换2.38% 市值1 3232 市净 +217.000 +4 ...

美国已在中东展开自 2003 年伊拉克战争前以来规模最大的军事集结。这表明，特朗普可能发起比去年 6 月针对伊朗核计划的夜间突袭更为全面的军事行动。据报道，总统同时也在权衡实施一次有限的先期 打击，以迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。 西太平洋银行大宗商品研究主管罗伯特・伦尼表示："我们仍认为，这是特朗普在加大施压，而非即将 动手。" 作为石油输出国组织（OPEC）成员国，伊朗日均原油产量超 300 万桶，约占全球总产量的 3%，其原 油主要出口至中国。不过，油价面临的主要风险在于，伊朗若决定封锁霍尔木兹海峡 —— 这一波斯湾 产油国能源出口的关键通道。 今年以来，油价已上涨约六分之一，因交易商持续评估该地区供应面临的风险，这一因素盖过了 2025 年底市场对供应过剩加剧的预期，而此前该预期曾对油价形成压制。若对伊朗发起持续军事行动，油价 可能进一步飙升，这将传导至加油站汽油价格，或在今年晚些时候美国中期选举前激怒选民。 油价攀升至六个月高位，美国总统唐纳德・特朗普警告伊朗，就其核计划达成协议的时间最多仅剩 15 天，与此同时，美国正在中东地区集结大规模军事力量。 布伦特原油价格逼近每桶 72 美元，本周累计上涨约 6%； ...

按照汽柴油每隔10个交易日，以国际原油隔夜变化为引导，以国内成品油调价50元/吨为标准，近期，国内成品油持续上涨！虽然，去年末，受成品油趋势 下降，年内油价"创新低"，国内标准汽柴油触底7585元及6600元/吨，各种油品报价也刷新5年以来低值，主流地区92汽油报价跌至6.65~6.75元/升左右。 但是，进入2026年，成品油逆势走高，尤其是，最近2次调价，汽柴油以"2连涨"落幕，统计汽油大涨290元/吨，柴油大涨280元/吨，国内标准汽柴油回升至 7875元以及6880元/吨，92汽油报价回升至6.9~7.05元/升左右，市场呈现"破6入7"的局面，春节前，居民用车压力陡增，出行成本大幅增加，按照私家车50升 容积，相比元旦，加满一箱油，估计多花近12块钱…… 目前，基于汽柴油调价机制，2026年第4次调价，2月份最后1次调价，时间将于2月24日晚12时进行，距离调价还剩4天，但是，本轮计价周期已经结束第9个 工作日，距离调价窗口期倒计时仅剩1天，春节后第一个工作日将正式调价！ 在本轮周期的10个工作日，原油市场，国际油价呈现震荡偏强的走势！周期初，受地缘局势影响，国际油价重心上移，WTI原油涨超65美元 ...

Core Insights - Oil prices are currently trading around $72, which is at the high end of the risk premium discussed by analysts, indicating market pricing in potential risks [1] - Analysts suggest that any actual interruption in oil supply could lead to a significant spike in prices, similar to past market reactions [2] OPEC+ Response - In the event of a disruption in oil infrastructure, OPEC+ has previously added over a million barrels back to the market, raising questions about their current spare capacity [3] - The current spare capacity is tight, with Saudi Arabia producing around 10 million barrels a day against an alleged capacity of 12 million barrels [4] Saudi Arabia's Capacity - Saudi Arabia has a spare capacity of approximately 2 million barrels, which is crucial for responding to any supply disruptions [5] - There is speculation that other OPEC members, like the UAE and Kuwait, may be producing above their quotas, but Saudi Arabia remains the primary source of spare capacity [6] Geopolitical Risks - Concerns exist regarding potential attacks on Iranian infrastructure and the implications for the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact oil exports [6] - Saudi Arabia has a transnational pipeline that allows for oil export through the Red Sea, providing some level of export capacity despite geopolitical risks [7] - The UAE also has a pipeline to Fujairah, but its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about vulnerability in a broader conflict [8]

此次特朗普发出最新警告前，美伊官员本周在日内瓦举行了间接会谈，试图就伊朗核计划达成协议。双 方均表示会谈取得了"进展"，但称在部分问题上仍存在巨大分歧。 去年6月，在美伊上一轮谈判期间，以色列对伊朗发动军事行动，美国也曾短暂加入以色列的进攻。 美国对伊朗发起新一轮大规模军事打击的可能性持续上升，令国际原油市场陷入震荡。周四，国际基准 布伦特原油期货价格收涨2%，报每桶71.66美元，创六个月以来新高；而在前一日的周三，布伦特原油 价格已大幅上涨4%。 交易员担忧，美国的军事行动可能扰乱石油供应，或迫使伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡——这一海湾地区石油 出口的关键咽喉要道。 美国向中东的军事部署以及战争威胁也在国会引发警惕，特朗普的部分批评者已发出警告，称总统若要 发动新的军事冲突，必须征得议员的批准。而白宫则认为此举并无必要。 马萨诸塞州民主党参议员Elizabeth Warren在X平台发文称："美国民众投票是为了更低的物价，而非在 中东再燃战火。但特朗普却急于对伊朗开战。宪法规定十分明确：总统未经国会批准，无权发动战 争。" 唐纳德・特朗普向德黑兰发出警告，称伊朗最多有15天时间与美国达成协议，否则"将会有糟糕的事 ...

Market Overview - European and US stock markets experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.54%, losing over 260 points, the S&P 500 down by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.31% [1] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped by 0.53%, retreating from its record high set on Wednesday [1] Technology Sector - Major US tech stocks mostly declined, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index down by 0.29%. Apple, Netflix, and Intel fell by over 1%, while Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia saw slight decreases [1] - Notably, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta experienced minor gains [1] Airline Industry - Airline stocks fell across the board, with Boeing down over 2%, American Airlines dropping more than 5%, Delta Airlines down over 5%, Southwest Airlines nearly 5%, and United Airlines close to 6% [1] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by 0.5%, with Microchip Technology and Texas Instruments both down over 2%, and NXP Semiconductors also falling by more than 2%. Qualcomm dropped over 1%, while Advanced Micro Devices saw an increase of over 1% [1] - Jensen Huang announced a "world unprecedented" chip, indicating that all technologies are nearing their limits [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.35%, with individual stocks like Luokung down over 3%, Bawang Tea down over 2%, and JinkoSolar down over 2%. However, Hesai Technology and Huazhu Group saw gains of over 2% and 1%, respectively [1] Gold and Silver Market - Gold stocks mostly rose, with Coeur Mining up over 6% and NovaGold Resources increasing by over 5%. As of the report, spot gold rose by 0.42% to $4,997 per ounce, and spot silver increased by 1.44% to $78.269 per ounce [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.09%, while COMEX silver futures increased by 0.82% [2] Oil Sector - Oil stocks surged, with Battalion Oil up over 34%, TMD Energy nearly 20%, and Sasol up nearly 10%. Western Oil Company reached a high of over $51.5 per share, closing up 9.36% [2] - International crude oil futures saw significant increases, with WTI and ICE Brent both rising by over 2% [2]

Market Overview - The Middle East situation is becoming increasingly tense, leading to heightened risk aversion, resulting in a decline in US stocks and a further drop in Hong Kong stocks on the first trading day of the Year of the Rabbit [1] - As of midday, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.28%, the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.6%, and the National Enterprises Index dropped by over 1% [1] Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Index is at 26,544.62, down by 161.32 points or 0.60%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index is at 5,245.10, down by 122.42 points or 2.28% [2] - Semiconductor stocks weakened, with Huahong Semiconductor down over 3%, Shanghai Fudan down over 2%, and SMIC, Beike Micro, and ZTE all down over 1% [2] - Conversely, storage concept stocks performed well, with Lanqi Technology rising over 8% at one point, and Aixin Yuan Zhi increasing by 19.89%, reaching a historical high [2] Sector Highlights - The robotics sector continued its upward trend, with Yujian rising by 19%, Sutech increasing by over 9%, and Ubtech up by over 6% [3] - Oil sector stocks surged, with China Petroleum up by 4.58% and Yanchang Petroleum International up by 5%, driven by rising international oil prices amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran [3] - Within the Hang Seng Technology Index, Baidu Group fell nearly 6%, JD Health dropped over 5%, Tencent Music decreased over 4%, and Bilibili fell over 5% [3] Additional Stock Movements - Software sector stocks mostly declined, with Kingdee International down over 5% and Tian Shi Resources down over 3% [5] - In the consumer sector, both discretionary and staple consumer stocks collectively fell, with Laopu Gold down over 3% [5] - Spot gold prices fell by approximately $20, currently reported at $4,991.15 per ounce, while spot silver decreased by $1, now at $77.64 per ounce [5]

格隆汇2月20日｜中东局势再趋紧张，避险情绪升温，美股隔晚下跌，港股在马年首个交易日弱势震 荡。截至半日收盘，恒生科技指数跌2.28%，恒指跌0.61%报26544.12点，国企指数跌0.59%。科技股集 体下跌，AI应用、机器人、存储、石油股逆势上涨。恒生指数成分股中，中石油涨超5%，恒基地产、 中海油涨超3%，李宁、信达生物涨超2%；恒生科技指数成分股中，百度、金蝶国际、哔哩哔哩、京东 健康跌超5%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...