Group 1 - The primary concern of the current macroeconomic environment is the persistently low price levels [1] - The low price levels are attributed to structural issues on the demand side, such as the decline in real estate investment, and more significantly, complex supply-side shocks [1] - China is experiencing a "good" supply shock driven by technological advancements and economies of scale, leading to a nearly 90% increase in overall labor productivity over the past decade [1] Group 2 - The costs of new production modes, represented by new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells, have significantly decreased [1] - This decrease in costs reflects the potential for new production models in the industry [1]

2025.07. 06 本文字数：3532，阅读时长大约5分钟 员工称"停工突然" "最低工资的80%，这个基础上再减去社保公积金的代扣，预估到手也就1000块出头。靠这点钱大 部分员工是没办法在深圳生存下去的。"罗马仕内部员工表示，还有很多同事需要供车贷和房贷，这 点工资更支撑不起。职工承担不起这个风险，只能被迫自离。 根据罗马仕今天凌晨的通知，停工停产后，首月公司将按照约定的标准正常支付员工工资，次月起将 严格依据《广东省工资支付条例》第三十九条规定执行，按不低于当地最低工资标准的80%支付劳 动者生活费。 在7月3日深夜官方辟谣"没有倒闭"后仅两天，罗马仕于7月6日凌晨一点半宣布：自7月7日起停工停 产半年。除召回相关员工外，其余人员停工停产，将仅按深圳市最低工资标准的80%（约2016元） 发放生活费。 "公司大群是690人，预计会有少量白名单员工留下来维持公司基本运转。"一位罗马仕内部员工今 日对第一财经表示，停工通知来得太过突然。 这场充电宝风波，正将罗马仕及电芯供应商安普瑞斯双双推向存亡边缘，安普瑞斯这家昔日"小巨 人"企业也面临至暗时刻。更多受到影响的还是普通的员工，第一财经了解到，安普瑞斯工 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of breaking the "involution" competition in the photovoltaic sector and highlights opportunities for supply-side reforms [15][16] - Wind power demand is expected to continue growing, with significant increases in project approvals and bidding volumes [16][18] - The approval of the first cross-province green hydrogen pipeline in Inner Mongolia marks a significant step for the hydrogen energy sector [20] - The launch of the Honor Magic V5 smartphone with the highest silicon content in the battery indicates advancements in lithium battery technology [30] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The report discusses the need for supply-side reforms to eliminate low-price competition and improve product quality in the photovoltaic industry [15] - Key companies to watch include Xiexin Technology, Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and others involved in silicon materials and glass production [15] - The report anticipates a rebound in polysilicon prices due to collective production cuts by glass manufacturers [15] Wind Power & Grid - Wind power projects are seeing a surge in approvals, with 549 projects totaling 67.53 GW approved by June 30, 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [18] - The report highlights the approval of two major ultra-high voltage transmission projects, which are expected to accelerate the development of the power grid [17][19] - Companies involved in wind power equipment and components are recommended for investment, including Goldwind Technology and others [18] Hydrogen & Energy Storage - The approval of the first cross-province green hydrogen pipeline is a landmark development for hydrogen energy, expected to lower transportation costs and promote green hydrogen consumption [20] - The report notes significant bidding activity in the energy storage sector, with a total of 2,973.119 MW/10,376.405 MWh of projects awarded in June [21] - Recommended companies in the hydrogen and energy storage sectors include Longi Green Energy and Sungrow Power Supply [20][29] Lithium Batteries - The Honor Magic V5 smartphone features a battery with a silicon content of 25%, showcasing advancements in battery technology [30] - The report suggests that the demand for high safety, lightweight, and long-lasting batteries in consumer electronics will drive the development of silicon-carbon anodes and solid-state batteries [30] - Key companies to monitor in the lithium battery space include Defu Technology and others [30][31]

以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 站在当下看未来的3-5年 ， 反内卷或许会成为影响中国社会以及经济最重要的事件之一 。 映射到资本市场 上也会带来巨大的投资机会 ， 尤其是对商品而言 ， 可能会成为影响部分品种的核心变量 。 尽管大家都在 类比16年的供给侧改革 ， 但是我觉得还是有很大的差异性 。 01 有较大的背景跟性质差异 15年过剩的行业相对集中在中上游领域 ， 产品的同质化竞争是比较严重的 ， 比如钢铁 ， 水泥 ， 电解铝 ， 玻璃等等 ， 大家生成的东西没有多少不同 ， 价格上也没有多少差距 。 而且这种过剩很大程度上是因为 2011-2012年的经济繁荣带来的投资 ， 主要是周期性因素为主 ， 通过棚改货币化刺激需求以及行政手段 压减无效产能 ， 退出效果还是比较显著的 。 但是本轮产能主要集中在终端消费领域 ， 产品的差距还是很大 ， 中低高端都有 ， 很难通过行政命令去去 化 ， 比如光伏是差异化过剩问题 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Romoss announced a six-month suspension of operations starting July 7, 2025, due to market challenges and internal management issues, significantly impacting employees and its supply chain partner Amprius [1][4][9]. Group 1: Company Operations - Romoss will only pay employees 80% of the local minimum wage (approximately 2016 yuan) after the first month of suspension, which is insufficient for many employees to sustain living expenses in Shenzhen [2][5][7]. - The company has experienced internal turmoil, including multiple changes in legal representatives within a short period, indicating instability in management [9][10]. - The suspension was announced abruptly, causing anxiety among employees who were previously engaged in customer service roles due to a surge in inquiries related to product recalls [8][9]. Group 2: Impact on Employees - Many employees are unable to survive on the reduced salary, leading to a potential wave of voluntary resignations as they cannot meet financial obligations such as car and housing loans [2][8]. - Employees expressed frustration over the lack of communication regarding the suspension, which was perceived as sudden and poorly managed [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Context - The incident has broader implications for the industry, particularly for Amprius, which is facing scrutiny and operational challenges due to its association with Romoss and the quality issues of battery cells [9][10][12]. - Other companies in the sector, such as Anker Innovations, have already severed ties with Amprius and are seeking alternative suppliers, indicating a shift in the supply chain dynamics [11][12]. - The situation highlights significant vulnerabilities in supplier management and quality control within the industry, prompting a reevaluation of risk management practices [17].

Macro & Industry - The "involution" competition in industries such as automotive, photovoltaic, and lithium batteries has intensified, leading to a dilution of profits and a disruption of the industrial ecosystem [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to promote a unified national market, focusing on legal governance of low-price competition and encouraging companies to enhance product quality [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1] Company - iPhone sales in China grew by 8% year-on-year in Q2, marking Apple's first sales increase in the region since Q2 2023, driven by promotional activities and improved trade-in values [4][5] - Huawei's sales in Q2 increased by 12%, maintaining its position as the largest company in the Chinese market, followed by Vivo and Apple [5] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and other bank stocks reached historical highs, with a sector index increase of nearly 1.7% on July 4, supported by favorable fiscal policies and stable credit growth [5] - Xintai Life Insurance increased its stake in Hualing Steel to 5%, expressing confidence in the company's future and indicating potential for further acquisitions [6] Fund - As of June 30, 136 companies saw stock price increases exceeding 100% this year, with some like United Chemical and Shutai Shen exceeding 400% [7] - Many public funds have invested in high-performing stocks, with notable holdings in companies like Shenghong Technology and Yipin Hong [8] - Fund managers are focusing on sectors such as AI, military industry, industrial metals, and banking for potential investment opportunities in the second half of the year [10]

近年来，在全球绿色产业竞赛中，中国制造凭借新技术、新产品脱颖而出。尤其以新能源汽车、锂 电池、光伏产品为代表的"新三样"叫响全球。 但与此同时，"内卷式"竞争逐渐成为舆论焦点，新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏以及风电、储能等领域 这一问题均受到诟病。 《求是》杂志在7月1日刊文《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》，对"内卷式"竞争发出严厉警 告，文章认为，价格战造成社会资源的极大浪费，不可持续的债务可能危及长期增长。 文章在分析内卷表现时指出，一些地方政府为招引企业、培育产业，人为制造政策洼地，违规实施 税费、补贴、用地等不公平非普惠的优惠政策，导致无序竞争，破坏公平竞争秩序。 文章在分析"内卷式"竞争是怎么形成的时指出，由于政府缺位越位等行为时有发生，很大程度上影 响公平竞争市场环境的形成。有的地方政绩考核机制不完善，导致政绩观、发展观错位，为了追求短期 经济增长而搞地方保护、市场分割、恶性比拼招商引资政策等，妨碍资源要素高效流动。此外，由于破 产重整制度不完善，加上有的地方政府行政力量干预，导致一些本该淘汰的落后和过剩产能不能及时退 出，部分企业"活不好、死不了"，影响了产业重组和资源利用效率的提高。 文章指出， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 2025 China Solid-State Battery Technology Development and Market Outlook Summit, highlighting its significance in the battery industry and the advancements in solid-state battery technology. Conference Details - The summit will take place on July 8-9, 2025, at the Shanghai Pudong Holiday Inn [1]. - The registration fee is 2600 yuan, with free registration available until July 7 [5]. Forum Topics - Various topics will be covered, including advancements in solid-state battery materials, industry trends, and product layouts from different companies [4]. - Notable speakers include researchers and executives from institutions like the Chinese Academy of Sciences and companies such as Shanghai Enjie New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. [4]. Attendee List - The attendee list features a diverse range of professionals from academia and industry, including researchers, managers, and executives from various companies involved in solid-state battery technology [8][10][12].

Group 1 - Brother Technology expects a net profit of 60 million to 75 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 325% to 431.25% [1] - Zhonggang Luonai's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by 0.5%, amounting to no more than 562,500 shares [1] - Hesheng Silicon Industry's controlling shareholder intends to exchange up to 1% of its shares for ETF units, totaling no more than 11,822,100 shares [1][2] Group 2 - Suotong Development's actual controller plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.21%, equating to no more than 1,098,720 shares [2] - Funeng Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1%, totaling up to 12,221,000 shares [2][3] - Yuhua Development expects a net profit of 175 million to 225 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 632% to 784% [4][5] Group 3 - Dingsheng Co. plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.71%, equating to up to 726,430 shares [5] - Renle's stock has been terminated from listing, officially delisted on July 4, 2025 [6] - Weitang Industrial's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.95%, totaling up to 340,000 shares [7] Group 4 - Yingfeng Environment's convertible bond may trigger a downward adjustment of the conversion price due to stock prices falling below 85% of the conversion price [8] - Jingye Da's actual controller plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3%, equating to up to 694,150 shares [10] - Yongtai Technology and its subsidiary are suing for 57.5193 million yuan in damages [11] Group 5 - *ST Meigu's subsidiary has been applied for bankruptcy liquidation [12] - Daoshi Technology plans to invest up to 165 million USD in a copper wet smelting project in the Democratic Republic of Congo [13] - Xinbo Co.'s actual controller plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.54%, totaling up to 372,440 shares [14] Group 6 - Yunnan Energy Investment has obtained the development rights for a photovoltaic power generation project with a capacity of 20 MW [15] - Qinglong Pipe Industry's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3%, equating to up to 990,970 shares [15] - Yangjie Technology has terminated the share issuance and cash acquisition of Beite Electronics, opting for cash acquisition instead [16] Group 7 - Taijia Co.'s controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3%, totaling up to 755,210 shares [17] - Songyang Resources has terminated the planning of a control change and will resume trading on July 4, 2025 [19]