综合来看，在宏观及供需因素影响下，铝价继续在高位区间运行。但基本面逐步进入季节性累库周期， 下游对高价抵触情绪渐强，短期铝价上行空间预计受限，现货铝价涨势或有限。建议密切关注宏观情 绪、累库节奏以及春节前下游备货动态。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月22日伦铝最新库存量报509275公吨，较上个交易日增加2100吨，涨幅 0.41%。 长江铝业网讯：1月22日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报23740元/吨，涨30元；广东现货A00铝锭价报 23760元/吨，涨20元。 宏观层面，美欧地缘局势缓和，避险情绪降温。美国总统特朗普宣布与北约达成协议，保障美国对格陵 兰岛"全面且永久性准入"。此消息虽暂时缓和了跨大西洋关系紧张，但也凸显出北极地区安全承诺有升 级必要，以应对俄罗斯等国的潜在威胁。除地缘因素外，美元持续走软为铝价提供有力支撑。周四美元 指数下滑 0.5%，收于 98.28，逼近三周低点，令以美元计价的金属商品对海外买家吸引力增强。特朗普 对格陵兰立场转变后，避险货币美元小幅下跌，欧元和英镑等风险敏感货币 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On the 22nd, the aluminum price fluctuated narrowly with a decline followed by a rise. The main contract closed up 1.59% at 24,055 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 3,979 lots to 710,000 lots. The adjustment of aluminum price led to a slight improvement in the overall purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises, but they remained cautious. The spot premium/discount is expected to remain under pressure. The discount in East China was -150, -250 in Central China, and -115 in South China. [7] - A mine collapse in Guinea on the 21st caused casualties. Although it has not affected the production of the core bauxite mining areas in Guinea for the time being, it still had an emotional impact on the alumina market. On the 22nd, the futures price rebounded nearly 2% to 2,717 yuan/ton at a low level, but it is expected to mainly fluctuate widely at a low level under the suppression of the oversupply fundamentals. [7] - The supply side of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable. The new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia continued to increase production, but the short - term increment was limited. High aluminum prices still suppressed the end - users, but benefiting from the inventory preparation demand for finished products as the Spring Festival approached, the demand side still had some resilience. The continuous inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put some pressure on the market. Currently, aluminum prices are still dominated by macro and capital factors. Due to the fluctuations in macro - sentiment and the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price adjustment should be treated with caution. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Aluminum price: The main contract of aluminum price rose 1.59% to 24,055 yuan/ton on the 22nd, with the total open interest decreasing by 3,979 lots to 710,000 lots. The adjustment of aluminum price improved the downstream purchasing sentiment slightly, but the spot premium/discount is under pressure. [7] - Alumina: The mine collapse in Guinea affected the alumina market sentiment. The futures price rebounded nearly 2% to 2,717 yuan/ton on the 22nd, and is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level due to the oversupply. [7] - Electrolytic aluminum supply and demand: The supply is basically stable with limited short - term increment. High prices suppress the end - users, but the demand has some resilience due to the Spring Festival inventory preparation. The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots pressures the market. Aluminum prices are dominated by macro and capital factors, and short - term adjustment is expected. [7] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Mine collapse in Guinea: On January 21, 2026, a mechanized mine in the Doko mining area of Siguiri Province, Guinea, collapsed, causing 6 miners to die. The accident is in the gold - mining area, about 800 kilometers away from the core bauxite mining area, and has not affected the bauxite production for the time being. [8][10] - "Aluminum replacing copper" in the air - conditioning industry: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum - made household air - conditioning products as early as 2026, while others had no such plan. [10] - Production cut by Rio Tinto: Rio Tinto will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation life to 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs. [10] - Mining plan of Nalco: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is also expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons. [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On January 22, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the Guinea imported ore price was 62 US dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton [1] - On January 22, the spot price index was 2633 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 68432 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 457 tons [1] - On January 22, the aluminum import profit and loss was - 2056 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the SMA00 average price was 23740 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of ×30 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was 7609 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 138856 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 101 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 143 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 22, the Baotai 4001 alloy price was 2300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 21, the refined - scrap price difference of raw aluminum was 2509 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3530 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 126641 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7513 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 2 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading producer of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with 90% of its revenue coming from electrolytic aluminum production, and is set to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2025 [1] Group 1: Production Capacity and Location - The company has established a production capacity of 780,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 3 million tons of alumina, with its facilities strategically located near key ports, providing a cost advantage of over 200 yuan/ton in alumina transportation compared to inland regions [2] - The electrolytic aluminum production is powered by self-built coal-fired power plants using low-quality lignite, resulting in a low electricity cost of only 0.3 yuan/kWh, which is significantly lower than the costs in other regions [2] Group 2: Green Energy Initiatives - The company is transitioning to green energy with the integration of 1,750 MW of renewable energy, which is expected to reduce electricity costs to between 0.10-0.18 yuan/kWh, further enhancing its cost advantage [2] - Once fully integrated, the renewable energy will account for over 50% of the company's electricity consumption, significantly lowering overall production costs [2] Group 3: Expansion Plans - The company plans to build a 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia, benefiting from low electricity costs of 3.2 cents/kWh, which is comparable to domestic costs in Xinjiang [3] - This expansion is expected to provide significant long-term growth opportunities, positioning the company as a rare growth target in the electrolytic aluminum industry [3] Group 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 3.1 billion yuan, 5.03 billion yuan, and 6.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting annual growth rates of 51%, 63%, and 34% [3] - The estimated earnings per share for the same years are projected to be 1.49 yuan, 2.43 yuan, and 3.25 yuan, with a reasonable valuation range of 32.5-40.7 yuan per share, indicating a premium of 24%-55% over the current market value [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q4 2025 earnings, with adjusted EPS and revenue exceeding market expectations, driven by rising aluminum prices and CO2 compensation benefits [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q4 revenue reached $3.4 billion, surpassing the market consensus of $3.28 billion, and increased by 15% from the previous quarter, though slightly down from $3.5 billion year-over-year [1] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.26, significantly higher than the market estimate of $0.93 [1] - Operating cash flow improved to $537 million, up from $85 million in Q3, while free cash flow reached $294 million, compared to a negative $66 million in the previous quarter [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, the company expects aluminum production to exceed 2025 levels, with total output projected between 2.4 million and 2.6 million tons [2] - The company warned of adverse impacts in Q1, including a $30 million hit to the alumina business due to maintenance and reduced shipments, and a $70 million impact on the aluminum business from the lack of CO2 compensation and higher restart costs [2] Group 3: Cash Position - After redeeming the remaining $141 million of 5.5% preferred notes due in 2027 by the end of 2025, the company will have a cash balance of $1.6 billion [3]

转自：云南日报 文山州绿色铝产值突破千亿元大关 成为全国绿色铝产能最大州市 记者从文山壮族苗族自治州发展改革委获悉，2025年文山州绿色铝产值突破1000亿元大关。铝产业成为 文山州首个千亿级产业集群，为云南加快打造绿色铝谷提供了有力支撑。 "十四五"以来，文山州抢抓国家铝产业布局优化重大机遇，着力打造绿色铝谷核心区，先后引进魏桥、 中铝、神火等世界500强、中国500强铝产业企业，电解铝产能达343万吨、占全省的一半，铝加工产能 407.4万吨，建成及在建再生铝产能210万吨，形成了"铝土矿—氧化铝—绿色铝—铝材精深加工—再生 铝—综合利用"的铝产业集群，成为全国绿色铝产能最大的州（市）、"北铝南移"的标志区。 文山州"十五五"规划建议明确提出，加快产业链供应链创新链协同发展，持续答好"云南打造绿色铝 谷，文山怎么办"这一命题，聚焦高端化、智能化、绿色化，加快构建完善"1+1+3+N"铝产业体系， 即"电解铝+再生铝+3个铝产业园区+N个企业、项目"。同时，加快再生铝资源回收体系建设，打造滇东 南绿色铝产业先进制造业集群，推动铝合金转化率达100%，铝材占比提升到70%以上，持之以恒打 造"绿色铝谷"核心区 ...

特别风险提示：本次配售的实施完成，需全部满足配售及认购协议所约定的各项先决条件。本次配售能 否最终完成及完成的具体时间均存在不确定性，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 山东南山铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日获悉公司控股子公司南山铝业国际控股有限公司 （以下简称"南山铝业国际"）根据南山铝业国际股东会发行股份的一般性授权，于2026年1月21日与南 山铝业全资子公司Nanshan Aluminium Investment Holding Limited、2名配售代理订立配售及认购协议。 根据协议约定，配售代理同意促使向不少于6名承配人通过"先旧后新"方式配售31,000,000股南山铝业国 际股份，配售价格为64.50港元/股（以下简称"本次配售"），本次配售的完成需全部满足配售及认购协 议所约定的各项先决条件。 本次配售所得款项净额约为19.87亿港元，将用于南山铝业国际的（1）电解铝及相关原材料和辅助业 务;（2）一般营运资金。 本次配售如依据配售及认购协议的约定顺利完成，南山铝业国际的股份总数将由589,435,200股变更为 620,435,200股，其中南山铝业通过全资子公司Nanshan Al ...

张大伟 制图 ◎记者 赵彬彬 2026年伊始，中国铝企海外扩产的步伐提速，密集动作勾勒出全球铝产业格局重构的清晰脉络。从印尼 到中东，南山铝业、创新集团等企业相继官宣扩产，涵盖电解铝产能建设、配套设施完善等全产业链环 节。 中东市场的布局同样引人注目。1月16日，创新集团披露，公司旗下红海铝业在利雅得举办的"矿业及未 来矿产论坛"上，与沙特公共投资基金（PIF）正式签约，计划共建50万吨电解铝产能及配套设施。 根据协议，该项目将在沙特延布工业园区打造中东地区规模最大的铝产品生产基地之一。项目将专注于 高附加值下游铝产品的研发与生产，全面覆盖沙特本土、中东地区及全球市场的高端需求，助力重塑区 域铝工业生态体系。 此外，1月15日，华通线缆投资的安哥拉电解铝项目一期正式投产，成为安哥拉首个电解铝项目。力勤 资源印尼电解铝项目也于2025年12月30日实现炭素焙烧炉一次点火成功，一期50万吨规划产能将在2026 年逐步释放。 "短短一个月内，多家铝企集中披露海外扩产动态，这并非偶然现象，而是行业发展到特定阶段的必然 选择。"中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜在接受采访时表示，"当前全球电解铝产业正处于供需格局重 构的关 ...

◎记者 霍星羽 1月22日，沪铝主力合约小幅上涨，截至日间收盘涨幅为0.59%，报24055元/吨。而在1月13日，该合约 一度冲高至25075元/吨，刷新上市以来最高纪录，印证了铝的强势表现。 虽然近期步入回调阶段，但自2025年12月中旬以来，铝价累计涨幅一度超12%，铝板块个股亦同步走 强，成为有色金属赛道中表现最亮眼的资产类别之一。 也有观点认为，对标铜铝比，铝价还有补涨潜力。按照1月22日铜铝主力合约日间收盘价计算，铜价是 铝价的4.2倍。另一位铝企高管对记者表示，铜铝比具有一定数据支撑。 一位私募从业人士对记者表示，此前铝的行情并非"补涨"。按照以往经验判断，铝的弹性偏弱，补涨力 度一般不会很强。近期带动铝价上涨的正是其内生原因，主要是宏观题材对铝价的带动。 这位私募人士说，铝与白银有相似之处。此前白银也被视作黄金的一种附属品，有时相较于黄金，投资 者更青睐白银的波动幅度和弹性，于是便参考黄金走势做多或做空白银。近期白银的涨势更多是内生因 素驱动。铝的这波行情同样来源于内生动力。 同时，铝的基本面也为其行情提供了较为坚实的支撑。中金有色团队分析认为，铝供给端弹性下降、脆 弱性上升。国内产能接近45 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is an alumina and electrolytic aluminum producer, with 90% of its revenue coming from electrolytic aluminum [1] - Established in 2012, the company has built a 6330MW coal-fired self-owned power generation capacity and 788,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity in Inner Mongolia, and 3 million tons of alumina capacity in Shandong [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company's alumina production capacity is strategically located near Binhai Port and Huanghua Port, resulting in lower inland transportation costs for imported bauxite, providing a cost advantage of over 200 RMB/ton compared to inland capacities in Henan and Shanxi [2] - The electrolytic aluminum capacity is located in Inner Mongolia, utilizing low-quality lignite for power generation, with a recent self-generated electricity cost of only 0.3 RMB/kWh, which is lower than the market coal prices [2] Group 3: Future Growth and Projects - The company is expected to complete the integration of a 1750MW wind and solar power project by 2026, which will significantly reduce electricity costs to below 0.25 RMB/kWh, enhancing its cost advantage in electrolytic aluminum production [3] - The company plans to establish a 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia, benefiting from low electricity costs of 3.2 cents/kWh, which is comparable to domestic coal-fired power costs in Xinjiang [4] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 3.1 billion, 5.03 billion, and 6.74 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting annual growth rates of 51%, 63%, and 34% [4] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.49, 2.43, and 3.25 RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]