1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest data on the sugar market, including prices, spreads, and supply - demand situations both domestically and internationally, along with macro and industry news [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.55 cents per pound, down 0.12; the mainstream spot price is 5940 yuan per ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5547 yuan per ton, down 2 [1] - **Spread Data**: The 15 - spread is 23 yuan per ton, unchanged; the 59 - spread is - 6 yuan per ton, up 1; the mainstream spot basis is 393 yuan per ton, up 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - India's monsoon precipitation has strengthened again. Brazil's exports have declined, with 374 tons exported in August (down 5% year - on - year) and 359 tons in July (down 5% year - on - year). Conab has lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 4450 tons from 4590 tons. China imported 74 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that China's sugar production will be 1116 tons in the 24/25 season and 1120 tons in the 25/26 season, with consumption of 1580 tons and 1590 tons respectively, and imports of 500 tons in both seasons. As of May 31, 24/25 season production was 1116 tons (up 120 tons), sales were 811 tons (up 152 tons), and the sales rate was 72.7%. As of July 31, 24/25 season cumulative imports were 324 tons (down 34 tons). In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season and 488 tons in the 24/25 season. As of August 16, 25/26 season, Brazil's central - southern region had a 6.6 - percentage - point decline in cumulative sugarcane crushing, with 2289 tons of sugar produced (down 112 tons), and the MIX was 52.51% (up 3.37 percentage points). ISMA/NFCSF predicts India's 25/26 season sugar production to be 3490 tons (up 540 tons from 24/25). Thailand's 24/25 season production was 1008 tons (up 127 tons) [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugarcane production recovery exceeds expectations, putting pressure on the global sugar market. In China, new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and imports are high, but the spot price is stable due to thin inventory. Zhengzhou sugar futures are hovering at a low level [4]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand for pulp replenishment may increase, but the magnitude is uncertain. The pulp market is stabilizing, and the recent listing of offset paper may support pulp futures. However, the upward drive for pulp prices is insufficient, and it is likely to trade in a low - level range [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. But the fundamental situation is still weak, and the upward price movement may be limited [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA September report has a slightly positive impact on the global cotton market, but the market is still under pressure. In China, there is a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and cotton futures are likely to fluctuate within a range [9]. - **Apples**: The impact of the old - season apples on the market is coming to an end. The market is focused on the new - season production and quality. Apple futures are expected to trade within a range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price fell sharply. The inventory is being depleted, and the market is in a state of seeking a direction. Aggressive investors can short the 2601 contract, while cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, consider shorting at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, stay on the sidelines. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds. For Cotton 2601, use a range - trading strategy [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of September, the cold - storage inventory decreased. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the market in the sales area is also stable [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. The market in the sales area is light, and the mentality of holders is divided [23]. - **Sugar Market**: The USDA's September report shows the sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio in the US. The ICE 11 - sugar non - commercial net short position increased. The domestic sugar spot price is stable [24][26]. - **Pulp Market**: The decline in domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has suppressed import volume. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The market is basically stable. The trading atmosphere is weak, and prices in different regions are stable [30][31]. - **Cotton Market**: India's cotton production and import expectations have increased, and its ending inventory has risen. In the US, the sales and inventory data of clothing and fabric in July show certain trends [32][33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided [34]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented [39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [51]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range - bound trading, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [68]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [89]. - **Sugar Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [96]. - **Cotton Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the sugar market, presenting data on prices, spreads, and macro - industry news. It also provides production, consumption, and import forecasts for domestic and international markets, along with the trend strength of sugar [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - The current price of raw sugar is 16.67 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.14 cents. The mainstream spot price is 5940 yuan per ton, unchanged year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5549 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan year - on - year. The 91 spread is 0 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan year - on - year, and the 15 spread is 23 yuan per ton, unchanged year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 391 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan year - on - year [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that India's monsoon precipitation has increased again. Brazil's exports have declined, with 374 million tons exported in August, a 5% year - on - year decrease, and 359 million tons in July, also a 5% year - on - year decrease. Conab has lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 4450 million tons from 4590 million tons. China imported 74 million tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 million tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 1116 million tons, consumption 1580 million tons, and imports 500 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 1120 million tons, consumption 1590 million tons, and imports 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 1116 million tons, an increase of 120 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO initially forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 million tons in the 25/26 season and 488 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of August 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 2289 million tons, a decrease of 112 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.51%, an increase of 3.37 percentage points year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 3490 million tons, an increase of 540 million tons compared to the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1008 million tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3] 3.5 Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is 1, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

率89.59%，同比加快0.65个百分点。工业库存116.23万吨，同比增加6.01万吨。不过下游处于双节备货阶 数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 段，预计刚需对价格有所支撑。短期糖价下跌或受限。操作上，建议观望为主。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 白糖产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5549 | 9 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 381607 | -2891 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 11325 | -274 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -55352 | -3373 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 6 | 0 20 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The latest news on raw sugar is bearish. Brazil has increased its estimates of sugarcane planting area and production, and the harvest is expected to exceed market expectations. Domestic sugar prices have stopped falling, with low inventory and high import processing costs providing some support. The future trend depends on the performance of raw sugar in the international market [4]. - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly. The market is weak, and the supply and demand situation remains to be observed. Although the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated the supply pressure, it is necessary to pay attention to when producers will reduce shipments to the Chinese market. The price is expected to be range - bound at a low level [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable, and the market expects an improvement in demand during the peak season. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the profit and price increase may be limited [8][9]. - **Cotton**: The external market is under pressure, but there are also some supporting factors. The domestic market is in a game between tight old - season supply and loose new - season expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuates. The market is mainly concerned about the difference between the expected and actual situation of the new season's production and quality. The price is expected to move within a range [12]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows a weak and volatile trend. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the price has rebounded seasonally. The new - season production and quality will be determined in September [13]. Trading Strategies - **Sugar**: Due to the bearish news on raw sugar, it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main contract is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure level is 5580 - 5600 [5]. - **Paper Pulp**: Although the price may be supported in the short term, the upward driving force is not clear. It is recommended to be bearish after a rebound. The 2511 contract has a support level of 4900 - 4950 yuan and a pressure level of 5100 - 5200 yuan [7]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4400 - 4500 yuan. Consider reverse calendar spreads and long - pulp short - paper spreads, and try short positions near the pressure level [10]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea. The support range of the 01 contract is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400. For options, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: It is recommended to wait and see. The support range of the 2601 contract is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500. For options, it is recommended to sell a straddle combination strategy [12]. - **Jujube**: Aggressive investors can hold a reverse calendar spread (short 2601, long 2605) or hold a long position in the 2605 contract and buy a protective put option. It is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread option strategy. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 10500 - 10800 points, and the high - level reference range is 11200 - 11500 points [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500 [21]. - **Jujube 2601**: Take profit on long positions at high prices. The support range is 11000 - 11500, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [21]. - **Sugar 2601**: Wait and see. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600 [21]. - **Paper Pulp 2511**: Short within the range. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200 [21]. - **Double - Offset Paper 2601**: Short on rebounds. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4350 - 4400 [21]. - **Cotton 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [21]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8329, up 33 (0.40%) for the week [22]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11155, up 155 (1.41%) for the week [22]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5540, up 17 (0.31%) for the week [22]. - Paper Pulp 2511 closed at 4990, down 72 (-1.42%) for the week [22]. - Double - Offset Paper 2601 closed at 4224, with no change data provided [22]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13860, down 140 (-1.00%) for the week [22]. b. Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 0.20 yuan/jin [27]. - The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous period and 5.30 yuan/kg year - on - year [27]. - The spot price of sugar is 5890 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of paper pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 400 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of cotton is 15248 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and up 487 yuan/ton year - on - year [27]. Third Part: Sector Basis Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the basis of apple, jujube, sugar, paper pulp, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [37][40][42][44][53]. Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [47][48][55] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and the same as the previous year [56]. - Jujube has 9188 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous period and an increase of 2906 compared to the previous year [56]. - Sugar has 11599 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 140 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1927 compared to the previous year [56]. - Paper pulp has 245040 warehouse receipts, an increase of 212 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 233942 compared to the previous year [56]. - Cotton has 5017 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 142 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 2568 compared to the previous year [56]. Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Apple Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for apple option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios, but no specific analysis content is given [58] b. Sugar Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [59][60][63] c. Cotton Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [67] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apple - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: Relevant figures are provided for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [69] - **Export Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for apple export volume, but no specific analysis content is given [71] - **Inventory Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for China's weekly apple storage inventory and that in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [73] b. Jujube - Relevant figures are provided for the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis content is given [75] c. Sugar - Relevant figures are provided for national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import volume, and the spot - futures price difference, but no specific analysis content is given [77][79][82] d. Paper Pulp - Relevant figures are provided for domestic 4 - port paper pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis content is given [88][89] e. Double - Offset Paper - Relevant figures are provided for double - offset paper's capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific analysis content is given [91] f. Cotton - Relevant figures are provided for retail sales, inventory, and other data in the clothing industry in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific analysis content is given [93][94][100]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebound space of white sugar is limited, and the downward trend is maintained. There are still many negative factors such as potential new import licenses and unexpected syrup imports, and it is advisable to roll short [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 318,200 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import was 1.7778 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 53,900 tons or 3.12%. In July, the total import of syrup and white sugar premix was 159,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68,600 tons. The price is expected to go down, and attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar [8] - **Demand**: The stocking for the Double Festival is almost over, the demand release is less than expected, and the supply pressure is emerging. The price is expected to go down [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic sugar mills is low, but the social inventory is at a moderately high level. There are rumors of a second batch of import licenses, which will still put pressure on processed sugar later. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the registered warehouse receipts of white sugar were 11,599, with 6 valid forecasts, totaling 11,605, compared with 12,482 last week. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Basis**: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi is 5,725 yuan/ton, the quotation of Guangxi Sugar Group is 5,830 - 5,940 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan Sugar Group is 5,730 - 5,780 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processed sugar mills is 5,950 - 6,080 yuan/ton. The downstream procurement is mainly on a need - to - buy basis. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Profit**: The cost of out - of - quota imports from Brazil is about 5,459 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in cost and a slight decline in profit. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Macro**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and inflation will remain high in the short term. The Fed will also adjust its economic and inflation expectations. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Strategy**: There is price support around 5,500. Although there will be a rebound, the space is limited, and there will be a decline later. It is advisable to short at high and cover at low [8][9] 02 This Week's Sugar Market News - The ISO predicts a supply gap of only 23,100 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, much smaller than the 487,900 - ton gap in the 2024/25 season. The global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season [14] - In the first half of August, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 47.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.596 million tons or 8.17%. The sugar production was 3.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 497,000 tons or 15.96% [14] - As of the week of September 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 84, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons or 0.71% [15] 03 Weekly White Sugar Data - **Foreign**: In the first half of August, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil increased year - on - year, but the cumulative crushing volume from the 2025/26 season to the first half of August decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 1.12 million tons year - on - year [20][23] - **Domestic**: The sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 505,200 tons or 7.34%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 74.11%, a year - on - year slowdown of 2.54 percentage points. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.52 percentage points [26][30][33] - **Imports**: In July 2025, the total import of syrup and white sugar premix was 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. The out - of - quota import cost increased this week [41][45] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the total number of white sugar warehouse receipts decreased compared with last week [48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both sugar futures and spot prices have risen, driven by increased sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil [1] - As of Friday's close, the white sugar futures contract 2601 settled at 5540 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase [1] - In the Guangxi Nanning region, the spot price of white sugar was 5890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - An industry survey of 11 analysts predicts that Brazil's central-south region will crush 49.5 million tons of sugarcane in the second half of August, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] - Sugar production is expected to reach 3.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, while ethanol production is forecasted at 2.4 billion liters, a decrease of 2.5% [1] - Domestic forecasts indicate that 48.94 million tons of raw sugar will arrive at ports outside the quota by August 2025, with 30.43 million tons expected in September [1] Group 3 - Market analysis suggests that the acceleration of sugarcane crushing in Brazil since August has led to a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production, with a record high sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - Despite the pressure on raw sugar futures prices due to increased production expectations in the northern hemisphere, the ethanol market provides some support, limiting the short-term downside for raw sugar [1] - The domestic sugar market has faced poor production and sales in August, raising concerns about potential policy relaxations on syrup, leading to a weaker market trend [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is expected to mainly experience range-bound oscillations [1] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 16.52 cents per pound, with a year-on-year increase of 0.05 cents; the mainstream spot price is 5,940 yuan per ton, unchanged year-on-year; the futures main contract price is 5,540 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 16 yuan [1] - The 91 spread is 0 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 26 yuan; the 15 spread is 23 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 9 yuan; the mainstream spot basis is 400 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 16 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High-frequency information reveals that India's monsoon precipitation has strengthened again, and Brazil's exports have declined, raising concerns about global consumption. Brazil exported 3.74 million tons in August, a 5% year-on-year decrease, and 3.59 million tons in July, also a 5% year-on-year decrease [1] - Conab has lowered the forecast for Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 45.9 million tons [1] - China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sold 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of July in the 24/25 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons [2] - In the 25/26 season, the market anticipates a decline in the sugar yield rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO's initial forecast indicates a global sugar supply shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 season [3] - As of August 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region decreased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, with cumulative sugar production at 22.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.12 million tons. The cumulative MIX was 52.51%, a year-on-year increase of 3.37 percentage points [3] - ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 34.9 million tons, up from 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season, an increase of 5.4 million tons [3] - Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 15 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The price of the ICE US Sugar October contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [5][11][15]. - Internationally, institutions predict that sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August will increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to increase by 9.5% year - on - year to 49.5 million tons. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. Downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking stage, and rigid demand is expected to support prices. In the short term, the decline of sugar prices may be limited [5]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term. Future factors to focus on include domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: International sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, sales in August were lower than usual, but inventory was low. Downstream stocking may support prices, and short - term price decline may be limited [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Futures**: The price of the US Sugar October contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 85,805 lots, an increase of 11,067 lots from the previous week [11]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot**: The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 51,979 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 11,599 [18][23]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 23 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 430 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton [34]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 183 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,365 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 177 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production**: As of the end of August 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [46]. - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In July 2025, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.56% and a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.41% [50]. - **Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 1.1388 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an acceleration of 0.65 percentage points year - on - year [54]. - **Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In July 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [58]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but no specific data is given [59]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis is given [64].