Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Information**: On July 11, 2025, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from various manufacturers showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shache Anquan remained at 1160, while the low - price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shache increased by 17.0 week - on - week and 19.0 day - on - day. The FG09 contract price was 1086, with a week - on - week increase of 60.0 and a day - on - day increase of 3.0 [1] - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass was 286.5 on July 11, 2025, with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 and a day - on - day increase of 20.4. The cost of North China coal - fired glass was 873.5, with a week - on - week increase of 9.5 and a day - on - day decrease of 1.4. The profit of South China natural gas glass was - 118.6, with a week - on - week increase of 21.0 and no day - on - day change [1] - **Market Conditions**: Shache traders' glass price was around 1160, with average shipments from middle - stream traders and a small amount of futures - cash purchases. In Hubei, the low - price of glass from factories was 980, some manufacturers raised prices, and the transactions were good with futures - cash purchases. The new futures - cash price was 960, with average transactions. The glass production and sales ratios were 110 in Shache, 140 in Hubei, 128 in East China, and 100 in South China [1] 纯碱 - **Price Information**: On July 11, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in Shache was 1210, with a week - on - week increase of 40.0 and a day - on - day decrease of 10.0. The SA05 contract price was 1282, with a week - on - week increase of 52.0 and a day - on - day decrease of 5.0 [1] - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda method was - 105.0 on July 11, 2025, with a week - on - week increase of 24.3 and a day - on - day decrease of 11.3. The cost of North China ammonia - soda method was 1285.0, with a week - on - week increase of 5.7 and a day - on - day increase of 1.3. The profit of North China combined - soda method was - 92.7, with a week - on - week increase of 30.6 and a day - on - day decrease of 11.4 [1] - **Market Conditions**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the delivery warehouse in Hebei was around 1180, and the price delivered to Shache was around 1210. The factory inventory of soda ash was accumulating, and the delivery warehouse had a slight inventory increase [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a dramatic reversal by restoring exports of EDA software, aircraft engines, and ethane to China, influenced by major companies like Intel and General Electric fearing a loss of billions in revenue [1] - The trade war that began in spring 2025 is seen as a textbook case demonstrating the failure of hegemonic thinking in a multipolar world and the conflict between unilateralism and systemic resilience [1][2] - Initial U.S. tariffs aimed at China were based on a misjudgment of the economic interdependence and the strategic resolve of China, leading to significant operational disruptions in U.S. industries [2][4] Group 2 - The U.S. government's attempt to isolate China through a "tariff alliance" backfired, as allies like the EU and Japan pursued their own interests, undermining U.S. efforts [4] - China's strategic depth in the market was highlighted by the rapid adaptation of its industries, such as the successful launch of domestic chip production and electric vehicle market penetration in Europe [4][5] - The economic backlash in the U.S. was swift, with rising prices for Chinese goods and declining consumer confidence, impacting major companies like Tesla [5][7] Group 3 - The political division within the U.S. exacerbated the situation, with the Federal Reserve resisting pressure to lower interest rates, leading to a perception of economic surrender [7] - The U.S. military faced urgent supply issues due to reliance on Chinese rare earth materials, while China had already prepared for such scenarios [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market remains stable overall, with slight price declines in some regions for heavy soda ash, and a lack of significant positive support for trading activities [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of July 8, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1170-1250 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1220-1340 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1250-1360 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1310-1460 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index is 1158.57, unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index decreased by 7.14 to 1221.43, a decline of 0.58% [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market showed a slight rebound on July 8, with the main contract SA2509 opening at 1166 CNY/ton and closing at 1178 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.60%. The highest price during the day was 1188 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1165 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,693,895 contracts, down by 107,283 contracts [5]. - The market is characterized by high supply levels and accumulating inventories, while demand remains weak, leading to a loose supply-demand balance. Despite a short-term rebound due to market sentiment, the overall price increase potential is limited due to high inventory pressure and weak demand [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, with ongoing supply adjustments and inventory changes being critical factors to monitor [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated within a range yesterday, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere improved compared to the previous day. The basis continued to be weak, and the decline in the afternoon widened. The current market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the social inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the PTA spot price will still fluctuate and adjust following the cost side in the short term, and the supporting effect may appear after the rapid decline of the spot basis. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ meeting and the polyester load fluctuations [6]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is gradually changing, and the inventory accumulation expectation is obvious in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the upper side of the ethylene glycol disk is under pressure. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be mainly sorted in a low range. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the return efficiency of the supply side and the changes in the cost side [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated, spot negotiation improved, basis weakened, and suppliers offered for sale. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 91, and the price negotiation range is 4780 - 4820 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4805, the 09 - contract basis is 80, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main force position: Net short position, short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: The price center was narrowly sorted, the basis was stable, and the spot negotiation was around a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The overseas market price center was sorted at a low level [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4343, the 09 - contract basis is 68, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.2 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared to the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main force position: The main force is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in inventory and supply - demand gap [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, along with the supply - demand difference [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as the basis, spread, and profit data on July 8 and July 7, 2025 [13]. 3.5 Price - **PTA and MEG Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers are provided, along with the changes in basis, spread, and profit on July 8, 2025, compared to July 7, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha increased by 1.5 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PX decreased by 7 dollars/ton [13]. - **PET Bottle - Chip Related Prices**: The historical data of the spot price, production gross profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of PET bottle - chips are presented [16][18][21][24]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - **PTA Inventory**: The historical data of the PTA factory inventory available days in China are shown [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: The historical data of the MEG port inventory in the East China region are provided [42]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: The historical data of the inventory available days of PET slices, polyester fibers (POY, DTY, FDY, short - fiber) in China are presented [44][51]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - **Upstream**: The historical data of the operating rates of PTA, PX, and ethylene glycol in China are provided [53][55]. - **Downstream**: The historical data of the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the PTA industry chain are presented [57][59]. 3.8 PTA Processing Fee and MEG Profit - **PTA Processing Fee**: The historical data of the PTA processing fee in China are shown [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: The historical data of the production gross profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol, coal - based syngas, naphtha integration, ethylene) in China are presented [63][64]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: The historical data of the production gross profit of polyester short - fiber and long - fiber (DTY, POY, FDY) in China are provided [66][68][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, it includes ratings such as "盘整" (Consolidation), "回调" (Correction), "震荡" (Sideways), "偏空" (Bearish), and "反弹" (Rebound) [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: There is a balance between the increasing production pressure and the support from Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP during the peak season, leading to a price consolidation. In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and the price is likely to be bearish on rebounds [3][4][5]. - **LPG**: As the downward pressure on oil prices increases, LPG is under pressure. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand relationship of upstream crude oil, the central price is expected to continue to decline, and the current valuation of LPG is relatively high. In the short - term, the upward resistance is large, and the price is weak [6][7][8]. - **L (Polyethylene)**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, showing an interval - based consolidation. In the short - term, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long - term, with the planned new capacity coming into operation, the outlook is weak [9][10]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The cost support improves, and the price moves in an interval. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the overall supply - demand imbalance persists. In the long - term, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply [11][12]. - **PVC**: With the continuous decline in the price of calcium carbide, the cost support weakens. The supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [14][15]. - **PX**: The supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness, and the cost support weakens. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [16][17]. - **PTA/PR**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance currently but is expected to loosen. There are opportunities to short at high prices [18][19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although the current inventory is low, the supply - demand is expected to become looser. There are opportunities to short at high prices [21][22][23]. - **Glass**: There is a conflict between policy expectations and real - world constraints. In the short - term, the price may move slightly upward, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure from the moving average [24][25]. - **Soda Ash**: The continuous inventory accumulation in soda ash plants puts pressure on the market sentiment. The price is expected to move in a wide - range sideways pattern [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expansion of liquid chlorine subsidies drives the price to rebound. Although the overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak, there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: The upstream profit is still good, but there is a negative feedback on demand. The port may start a cycle of inventory accumulation later. The price is expected to be weak and sideways [32][33][34]. - **Urea**: Although the recent maintenance intensity has increased, the supply pressure remains large. The demand is weak, but the export growth is fast. There are opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - **Asphalt**: Due to the pressure on the cost - end oil price, the short - term price is bearish [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices opened low and closed high. WTI decreased by 0.76%, Brent increased by 1.87%, and SC decreased by 1.01% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production in August. However, the oil price has strong support below due to the peak consumption season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP. The demand growth rate has slightly decreased, and the US inventory has changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC should be monitored in the range of [500 - 520] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 7, the PG main contract closed at 4179 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the previous day. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, putting downward pressure on oil prices and LPG. The PDH device profit decreases, and the supply and demand sides have different changes [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of LPG is expected to decline. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position. PG should be monitored in the range of [4150 - 4250] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, the cost support from crude oil weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and new capacity is planned to be put into operation in the long - term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider selling hedging opportunities. L should be monitored in the range of [7200 - 7300] [10]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand is weak, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply in the long - term [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7100] [12]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide continues to decline, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new plants and the change of anti - dumping tax policies [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. V should be monitored in the range of [4800 - 5000] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures prices of different contracts decreased. The basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and international PX devices are operating at a relatively high load. The demand from the PTA side has weakened recently, and the supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness. The inventory is still relatively high [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. PX should be monitored in the range of [6620 - 6730] [17]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens. The inventory is decreasing, but the processing fee is high, and the basis is expected to weaken [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4750] [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract decreased. The basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and international devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the recent arrival volume is low, but it is expected to increase. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to become looser [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. EG should be monitored in the range of [4240 - 4310] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation increased, the futures contracts showed differentiation, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are policy expectations for capacity reduction and technological improvement, the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the output increases slightly, and the inventory decreases but is still higher than last year [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1010 - 1040] [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda decreased, the futures market showed differentiation, the main contract basis narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the effective forecast decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Although the policy of capacity reduction boosts the market sentiment, the inventory in soda ash plants continues to accumulate, and the supply is still at a high level. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1160 - 1190] [28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable, the futures market rebounds, the basis strengthens, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. The demand from the alumina industry recovers, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH should be monitored in the range of [2390 - 2450] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, the main contract futures price decreased, the basis and spreads changed, and the trans - shipment profit increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and international device operation loads are high. The import profit increases, and the port may start to accumulate inventory later. The demand from the MTO side weakens, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2350 - 2400] [34]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The recent maintenance intensity increases, but the supply pressure remains large. The industrial and agricultural demands are weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost support exists [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. UR should be monitored in the range of [1725 - 1755] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure due to OPEC+'s production expansion. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3550 - 3650] [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The methanol market presents a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, port methanol is expected to fluctuate due to inventory risks and macro - level support. Inland methanol is likely to move sideways due to factors such as supply - demand balance and downstream profit conditions. Overall, the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 trading between 2360 - 2430 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The report analyzes the methanol market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and main positions. It concludes that the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, and continuous attention should be paid to port inventory, olefin procurement, and macro - level news [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; Iranian methanol production has decreased and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to start a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant later this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season and MTBE production has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2415 yuan/ton, with a basis of 23 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 534,100 tons, an increase of 84,600 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas increased by 46,100 tons to 293,400 tons [4]. - **Market trends**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the price is below the moving average [4]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [4]. - **Price trends**: From July 1 to July 7, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 4.15%, the futures price increased by 0.34%, and the basis decreased by 113 [11]. - **Production profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 66 yuan/ton, natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 120 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - based methanol profit increased by 342 yuan/ton [21]. - **Enterprise load**: The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [22]. - **External price and spread**: The CFR price in China decreased by 1.07% to 277 US dollars/ton, the CFR price in Southeast Asia decreased by 2.84% to 341.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread decreased by 7 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Import spread**: The import cost decreased by 1.07% to 2447 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased by 1.82% to 2425 yuan/ton, and the import spread decreased by 79 yuan/ton [27]. - **Traditional downstream products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid decreased by 0%, 1.24%, and 1.89% respectively; the production profit of formaldehyde remained at - 162 yuan/ton, the production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the production profit of acetic acid decreased by 8 yuan/ton [31][35][38][42]. - **MTO production**: The production profit of MTO increased by 336 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% to 79.84% [47]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, and others in different regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest [57]. - **Overseas plants**: Some Iranian plants such as ZPC and Kimiaya are reported to be in the process of resuming production, while plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally [58]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have production adjustments, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy and Qinghai Kangjiu [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement, so it is recommended to stay cautious [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are recommended based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market trends, such as going long, shorting, or staying on the sidelines. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds from the open market [5]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.46%, 0.62%, - 0.01%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. The gold main contract closed at 777.06 with a decline of 0.54%, and the silver main contract closed at 8,919 with a decline of 0.28% [11]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [14]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is a risk of further decline in rebar prices, and the trend of hot - rolled coil may be similar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder at ports were reported [16]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low, while managing positions carefully [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is uncertainty in the short - term trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The spot prices of manganese silicon in Tianjin and silicon iron in Inner Mongolia changed [21]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have an oversupply situation, and prices are under pressure. If the spot losses increase significantly, it is advisable to consider low - value call options [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and broke below the 5 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production significantly, which is expected to impact oil prices. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [24][25]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and resumed its downward trend. The spot spreads and trading conditions of high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil were reported [26]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the cost of crude oil is declining. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable [27]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber declined. The Shanghai spot price decreased [29]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the market stabilizes [30]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract declined slightly, and the spot price remained stable [31]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The PVC price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose slightly. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [35]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is bullish [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PX2509 contract declined. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [37]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance of PX is slightly improved but remains tight. Due to insufficient cost support, it is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle East situation [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate in East China were reported [39]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals of PTA have few contradictions, but the cost support of crude oil is insufficient. It is advisable to participate with a light position and control risks [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract declined slightly. The overall and partial开工 loads, inventory, and demand situations were reported [40]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has weakened, but the significant reduction in inventory provides support. It is advisable to be cautious about the downside space and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main short - fiber 2508 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost - benefit situations were reported [42]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Both the downstream terminal demand and cost factors have weakened. It is advisable to participate with a light position following the cost trend and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [42]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main bottle chips 2509 contract declined. The cost - benefit, supply, and demand situations were reported [43]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Although the raw material prices have weakened recently, the increase in device maintenance and inventory reduction provide support. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [43]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production, inventory, and device maintenance situations were reported [44]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to alleviate. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively [44]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production line, supply - demand, and market price situations were reported [45]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively. Short - sellers at low levels should control their positions [47]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined slightly. The production, inventory, and demand situations were reported [48]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and the regional differences are obvious. Although there is short - term bullish sentiment, the fundamental support is limited, and the sustainability is expected to be general [49]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp declined. The downstream product production, supply - demand, and price situations were reported [50]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved. It is expected that the price of the pulp market will remain weak and stagnant in the near future, and it is advisable to wait and see the changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market sentiment improved, but the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged [52]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is not advisable for investors to chase the rise [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper declined significantly and broke below the 5 - day moving average. The spot price and market trading situation were reported [53]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Shanghai copper is facing the test of the 80,000 - yuan integer mark. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the main Shanghai copper contract for the time being [53][54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [55]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the tin price will oscillate and strengthen [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [56]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The spot prices and inventory situations were reported [58]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, consider paying attention to call option opportunities at support intervals after the price decline [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil closed lower. The international and domestic supply - demand, inventory, and price situations were reported [60][61]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to widen the difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed remained flat. The domestic import, inventory, and spot price situations were reported [63]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to go long on the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [64]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated strongly at a high level. The US cotton export, planting, and growth situations were reported [65]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [69]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose and then fell. The international and domestic production, inventory, and supply - demand situations were reported [70]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [72]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures rose and then fell. The production, inventory, and price situations were reported [73]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to third - party production research data [75]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of pigs declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [76]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term pig price may continue to be weak. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the weight - reduction degree in the south [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The supply, cost, and profit situations were reported [78]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider short - selling on rebounds [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch declined. The spot prices, inventory, and demand situations were reported [81]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines. Corn starch follows the corn market trend [82]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of logs remained unchanged. The supply, cost, demand, and price situations were reported [83]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the market will oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [85].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Juren New Materials Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Juren New Materials") has been accepted for IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange, focusing on the research, production, and sales of caprolactam series products, marking a significant step in the domestic chemical materials industry [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Juren New Materials is the largest domestic supplier of caprolactam series products, having established the first 10,000-ton continuous production line for caprolactam series products in China, filling a gap in large-scale production [2][4]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58.12% in revenue during the reporting period, indicating strong growth momentum [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue figures for Juren New Materials from 2022 to 2024 are as follows: 192 million yuan, 282 million yuan, and 479 million yuan, respectively, demonstrating rapid growth [1]. - Net profit for the same period has also shown significant increases: 47.26 million yuan, 74.20 million yuan, and 83.35 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Investment and Projects - The company plans to raise 292 million yuan through its IPO, which will be allocated to a 40,000-ton/year special polycaprolactone intelligent factory project, a research and development center project, and to supplement working capital [1]. - In 2023, Juren New Materials completed the construction of the world's largest single-capacity caprolactam facility, with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons [7]. Group 4: Market Position and Collaborations - Juren New Materials has established partnerships with major international companies such as BASF, BIC, and Covestro, as well as long-term collaborations with domestic leaders like Wanhua Chemical and Meirui New Materials [5]. - The company's market share in the domestic caprolactam market increased from 35.19% in 2022 to 37.21% in 2023, solidifying its position as the largest supplier in the sector [5]. Group 5: Innovation and Certifications - The company has built a comprehensive technology transfer system from basic research to industrialization, supported by various innovation platforms [6]. - Juren New Materials has received multiple certifications, including being recognized as a "Little Giant" enterprise and a high-tech enterprise, and has participated in the formulation of national standards for biodegradable materials [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term weak and volatile market. With multiple device overhauls postponed, supply is expected to rise again in July. Overseas device restarts also increase the operating rate. PXN is under pressure, and it is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA shows a positive basis spread arbitrage, a reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and a weak and volatile unilateral trend. The long - PX short - PTA position should be stopped for profit. Demand is weak in July, and PTA will start to accumulate inventory from late July [8]. - MEG has a positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral valuation is not recommended to short. Although the 09 contract is relatively weak, the downside space of the 9 - 1 spread is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and go long on dips for the unilateral position [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China postponed its overhaul to late July for two months. A 9 - million - ton PX device in East China reduced its load in July and canceled the original overhaul plan. Some overseas devices restarted. By the end of the week, the domestic PX operating rate dropped to 81%, and the Asian total operating rate rose to 74.1%. Asian PX prices continued to decline on July 4 due to weak downstream demand [4]. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester device in Huzhou is under overhaul, and the restart time is undetermined [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - PTA trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - MEG trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: With multiple device overhauls postponed, it is a short - term weak and volatile market. Pay attention to the compression position of the far - month PXN. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA: Conduct positive basis spread arbitrage and reverse calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral trend is weak and volatile. Stop the profit of the long - PX short - PTA position. Pay attention to the crude oil trend [8]. - MEG: Conduct positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. Do not short the unilateral valuation. Go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and the unilateral position [9].

Group 1: Report Summary - This is the second report in the new variety propylene专题 series, analyzing and interpreting the supply side of the propylene industry chain, covering domestic propylene production capacity, supply, production profit, and import and export [4]. - Since 2010, China's propylene production capacity has grown explosively. With the continuous commissioning of PDH and large - scale private refining and chemical integration projects, China has become the world's largest propylene producer, and the industry is moving towards structural adjustment and high - quality development [4]. - China is a net importer of propylene. However, with the rapid expansion of domestic production capacity, the self - sufficiency rate has increased, and the import dependence has decreased [5]. Group 2: Propylene Production Capacity Pattern - From 2010 to 2024, China's propylene production capacity increased from 1650 tons/year to nearly 7000 tons/year. From 2010 - 2018, the growth was driven by coal chemical and PDH processes. Since 2020, although the growth of coal - to - olefins has slowed, PDH capacity has continued to expand, and large - scale private refining and chemical integration projects have been put into operation [12]. - From 2016 - 2024, the main growth in propylene supply came from propane/alkane dehydrogenation and naphtha/light hydrocarbon steam cracking, with capacity increases of about 1750 tons and 1405 tons respectively, accounting for 43% and 34.7% of the total capacity growth [14]. Group 3: Regional and Process - based Production Capacity Distribution - China's propylene production is regionally concentrated and resource - oriented. As of 2024, East China, Shandong, and South China have the largest production capacities, accounting for 28%, 20%, and 18% respectively. Northwest and Northeast China follow, accounting for 16% and 9% respectively. Central and Southwest China have relatively small capacities [16]. - Refining processes are mainly carried out by traditional and local refineries. Coal or methanol - to - propylene enterprises are mainly in the coal - rich Northwest and North and East China for easy methanol transportation. PDH enterprises are concentrated in coastal provinces in North, East, and South China due to the need for imported propane [16]. - As of 2024, naphtha/light hydrocarbon cracking and propane/alkane dehydrogenation are the main processes, with capacities of 2324 tons/year (33.3%) and 2254 tons/year (32.3%) respectively [20]. Group 4: Propylene Supply - China's propylene production has increased year - by - year, from 1845 tons in 2014 to 5341 tons in 2024. The capacity utilization rate increased from 2014 - 2021 but declined after 2021, reaching a low of 77.9% in 2023 due to over - capacity [24]. - Propylene production, operation, and inventory show seasonal characteristics. Production is usually lowest in Q1, recovers in Q2, peaks in Q3, and fluctuates in Q4 [25]. Group 5: Process - based Propylene Supply - As of 2024, naphtha/light hydrocarbon cracking and propane dehydrogenation are the main production processes, with outputs of 1821 tons (34%) and 1484 tons (28%) respectively [28]. Group 6: Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Production profit is a key factor affecting the operating rate of propylene production processes. PDH has the highest profit sensitivity and fastest reaction speed, while coal - to - propylene has medium sensitivity with a lag, and oil - to - propylene has the lowest sensitivity [30][33][36]. - In Q4 2023, high propane prices led to deep losses in the PDH industry, and the operating rate of Chinese PDH plants fell below 60% [33]. Group 7: Propylene Import and Export - China is a net importer of propylene. The import volume reached a peak of 313 tons in 2019 and decreased to 202 tons in 2024, while the export volume remained low at 7 tons [42]. - The import dependence has decreased from 14% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2024, mainly due to the expansion of domestic production capacity [46]. - China mainly imports propylene from South Korea and Japan in Northeast Asia, with South Korea accounting for 74% and Japan 19% in 2024 [47].