文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘上午微涨，到下午出现了神奇两点半。 到收盘的时候大盘上涨比较多，一口气回到4.2星。 大中小盘股都上涨，小盘股上涨略低一些。 前两天下跌比较多的成长风格，今天也大幅反弹。 港股也整体上涨。 1. 最近全球市场，一些资产也出现了波动。 （1）A股中证全指，从10月份的高点，到本周二，大约回调了5-6%上下。 这个回调幅度不算太大。 今年1月和4月，A股都有过10%以上级别的回调。 不过三季度大涨的时候，进来了不少新投资者，可能刚开始投资就遇到了回调。 对新手投资者，这个波动也是一个考验。 港股最近的波动就更大一些。 另外亚太地区的股票市场，也普遍出现波动。 （2）除了股票市场波动，最近长期纯债也出现波动。 30年期国债指数基金，今年已经从高点，到周二，回调了8.9%。 这个回调比A股的回调还大。 最近几周长期纯债波动也比较大。 股票和长期纯债一般是有负相关性。 两者一起下跌，历史上不太多，往往是遇到流动性短期收紧的时候会出现。 例如2013年、例如2020年初。 2. 流动性收紧，也跟美元等政策有关。 （1）12月11日美联储降息。 但是美联储也释放了"鹰式降息" ...

Employment Trends - In October, the U.S. added 105,000 non-farm jobs, a significant drop from September's 108,000, but rebounded to 64,000 in November, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[8] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in nearly four years, up from 4.44% in September[8] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits and continuing claims showed slight improvement, indicating resilience in the job market[2] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to see growth and unemployment rates stabilize by 2026, with inflation initially declining before rising again[2] - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in June as a political gesture, with inflation potentially rebounding in the second half of the year[2] - The labor participation rate increased from 62.3% to 62.5%, with the broader U6 unemployment rate rising to 8.7%[8] Sector Performance - Job growth was primarily concentrated in construction, healthcare, and education services, while manufacturing jobs continued to decline for the seventh consecutive month[8] - Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, maintained rapid growth in October, indicating consumer resilience[2] - The service sector's PMI employment index and job postings on Indeed showed a slow recovery, suggesting ongoing demand for labor[2]

Core Viewpoint - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the healthcare sector is rapidly expanding, with a focus on enhancing medical services in Guangxi and fostering collaboration with ASEAN countries [13]. Group 1: Talent Development - Talent is identified as the core engine for innovation and a fundamental support for high-quality healthcare development in Guangxi [14]. - Guangxi is in a critical phase of healthcare development, aiming to create an integrated talent ecosystem that attracts, nurtures, and retains skilled medical professionals [14]. - A collaboration between Sun Yat-sen University and Guangxi universities will begin in 2024, aiming to train 9 doctoral and 30 master's students annually for Guangxi [14]. - Suggestions include establishing a special fund for recruiting interdisciplinary talents proficient in AI and drug development, and launching a joint training program with ASEAN countries [14][15]. Group 2: AI Empowerment in Healthcare - AI is transforming the medical field, with a focus on integrating AI into healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors to inject new momentum into Guangxi's health services [16]. - The concept of "precision surgery" is being enhanced by AI, which can analyze vast clinical data for early disease warning and treatment optimization [16]. - AI is also reshaping the entire drug development process, presenting opportunities for Guangxi to become a strategic hub for natural medicine AI research [16]. Group 3: Cross-Border Health Cooperation - Guangxi is positioned as a strategic point for cooperation with ASEAN, leveraging platforms like the Fangchenggang International Medical Open Experiment Zone [18]. - Recommendations include creating an integrated system that combines policy, research, clinical application, and industry incubation to enhance regional healthcare influence [18]. - The establishment of a "China-ASEAN AI Pharmaceutical Innovation Corridor" is suggested to facilitate a collaborative network across research, clinical, and industrial sectors [18]. Group 4: Achievements and Future Directions - The collaboration between Guangdong and Guangxi has already yielded results, including the introduction of advanced medical technologies and successful treatments for patients from neighboring countries [19]. - The establishment of research institutes focused on fungal disease prevention and control aims to share expertise and resources with ASEAN countries [19]. - Guangxi's experience in thalassemia prevention is being shared with ASEAN nations, promoting a "Health Silk Road" for disease prevention and control [19].

Overview - The core point of the article is that the U.S. labor market showed resilience in November, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [1][2]. Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, a significant recovery from October's loss of 105,000 jobs [4]. - The private sector added 69,000 jobs in November, up from 52,000 in October, indicating a stable expansion despite government sector disruptions [3][5]. - The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from September, attributed partly to a rise in the labor participation rate to 62.5% [1][3]. Wage Growth - Hourly wage growth showed a decline, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October [1][4]. - The three-month annualized growth rate of hourly wages fell from 4.2% in October to 3.1% in November [3][4]. Sector Contributions - The service sector remained the primary contributor to job growth, adding 50,000 jobs, with healthcare being a significant driver [3][5]. - The goods-producing sector saw a marginal improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, primarily due to gains in construction, while manufacturing and mining continued to decline [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 slightly increased, with a 2 basis point rise to 60 basis points [1]. - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 3.48%, while the 10-year yield remained stable at 4.16% [1].

1、增长引擎单一，医疗行业增长承压： 若医疗招聘放缓，就业市场将陷入困境。虽然近几个月私营部 门就业有所加速（9月以来平均月增7.5万），但增长基础极其薄弱：大部分增量由医疗与教育行业贡 献。相比之下，制造业就业自今年3月起便止步不前。2、美联储决策支撑： 就业数据为美联储近期降 息提供了依据。3、失业率预警： 美国"非洲裔"失业率飙升至8.3%，创2021年以来新高；2025年年初还 曾低至6.2%。4、DOGE效应显现： 马斯克领导的"政府效率部"（DOGE）裁员潮首次反映在非农数据 中。10月数据曾录得10.5万的剧烈修正性下降，这主要是由于联邦政府裁员导致的（政府雇员人数骤降 15.7万，反映了DOGE裁员的延迟影响）。这份报告中最引人注目的是 "DOGE效应" 的量化。它证实了 政府机构裁员对整体非农数据的显著冲击。5、制造业停滞： 工厂就业岗位仍无好转迹象，降至2022年 以来最低水平。 ...

Group 1 - The core market sentiment is characterized by a loss of calculability regarding the future rather than a loss of confidence [2] - The market reactions to the non-farm payroll data were mixed, with the dollar index initially falling before recovering, gold prices spiking then declining, and S&P 500 futures showing volatility before closing lower [2][3] - The U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a comprehensive rise, with yields dropping by 2 to 3.5 basis points, indicating a preference for assets that do not require narrative justification [2] Group 2 - The overall market response was moderate, suggesting that it was not a significant trading day, with expectations of increased volatility compared to the previous day [3] - The market is currently in a state of risk avoidance, with defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and real estate performing poorly, while technology stocks managed to show slight gains [4] - The implications of the non-farm data are troubling for the Federal Reserve, as it disrupts the sense of direction in the market, creating uncertainty in pricing models [4]

Welcome back. We are awaiting the delayed November jobs report. Economists are expecting 50,000 jobs created for the month with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%.This will be a market mover because it will educate or inform uh market participants on what the Federal Reserve's next move is. Joining me now is American Staffing Association board member Joanie Bileley, Job Creators Network CEO Alfredo Ortiz. Also with us this morning is Charles Payne, Mitch Rochelle, Lee Carter, and Cheryl Cassoon.Gr ...

Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port will officially enter a new phase of full island closure on December 18, 2025, implementing a customs supervision special area with liberalization policies characterized by "one line open, one line controlled, and free movement within the island" [4] Group 1: Economic Impact - As of December 9, 2025, Hainan has 3.6645 million existing business entities, with nearly 50% of the 1.21 million enterprises belonging to the wholesale and retail sector, accounting for 46.29% [1] - The closure will significantly reduce trade costs for businesses, attract investments, and provide residents with cheaper access to imported goods, increasing employment and entrepreneurial opportunities [6] - The wholesale and retail sector has seen the largest growth in business entities, with increases of 328.04%, followed by cultural, sports, and entertainment industries at 264.61%, and scientific research and technical services at 238.66% compared to 2020 [5] Group 2: Policy Changes - A series of regulatory documents will be implemented upon the full closure, including tax policies for goods entering and exiting the island, and a list of prohibited and restricted goods [4] - The zero-tariff policy will expand to approximately 6,600 tax items, covering about 74% of all goods, which is an increase of nearly 53% compared to before the closure [7] - The new policies will allow for the sale of various domestic products in duty-free shops, including clothing, ceramics, and electronics, with tax exemptions on these items [7] Group 3: Sectoral Opportunities - Industries such as import-export trade, international shipping, and logistics will directly benefit from customs facilitation and tax incentives [6] - High-value industries like high-end manufacturing, biomedicine, and green technology are expected to gain from the zero-tariff and low-tax policies, presenting significant market opportunities [6] - The concentration of A-share listed companies in Haikou exceeds 80%, indicating a strong local economic presence [5]

Group 1 - The core focus for the upcoming year is to expand domestic demand, which is prioritized as the main task. Domestic demand has shown stability, contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters of this year. However, there is a noted slowdown in consumption and investment growth that requires ongoing efforts to boost domestic demand [1] - There is a structural shift in consumption patterns, moving from a focus on goods to a balance between goods and service consumption. While some areas of goods consumption are slowing, there is strong demand in service sectors such as culture, tourism, elderly care, and childcare. The strategy involves leveraging new demand to drive new supply and vice versa [1] - Plans to increase urban and rural residents' income, enhance employment quality, and raise basic pensions are essential to improve consumer spending capacity. The aim is to expand the supply of quality goods and services and develop new consumption growth points in sectors like home services and health tourism [1] Group 2 - Investment is currently declining, but there are significant opportunities in technology innovation, industrial upgrades, infrastructure, and improving living standards. The strategy involves combining investments in physical assets and human capital to stimulate both consumption and investment [2] - The government is expected to play a crucial role in driving investment through the effective use of budgetary funds, long-term special bonds, and local government bonds. The focus will be on implementing major projects that can stimulate economic activity [2] - There is a need to invigorate private investment by implementing measures to support private enterprises in participating in significant projects in sectors like railways and nuclear power, and guiding private investment towards high-tech and service industries [2]

Job Market Insights - The upcoming job reports for October and November are expected to be relatively sluggish, with no significant surprises anticipated [4] - Current data indicates a cooling labor market, although it has leveled off somewhat [4] Wage Trends - The labor market is currently characterized as an employer market, leading to limited wage growth due to excess labor supply [5][6] - Certain sectors, such as healthcare, may still experience competitive wage growth, but overall wage increases are not expected to rise significantly as long as the labor market remains sluggish [6] Impact of AI on Employment - AI is influencing certain sectors, particularly technology, marketing, and accounting, but its current impact may be more about anticipation rather than actual productivity gains [7][9] - Companies are heavily investing in AI, which may be causing them to hold off on hiring, as they await the anticipated benefits of these technologies [7][9] - There are indications that some companies are not seeing the expected productivity gains from their AI investments, raising questions about future hiring needs [9]