| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基岩 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1739.9 | -0.18% | 52.2 | 223 | | 1429 | -173 | | | EC2604 | | 1231.2 | -2.92% | 560.9 | 29451 | | 31427 | -3234 | | | EC2606 | | 1531.0 | -2.37% | 261.1 | 4900 | | 14812 | -76 | | | EC2608 | | 1613.2 | -1.06% | 178.9 | 482 | | 1387 | -13 | | | EC2610 | | 1119.0 | -1.13% | 673.1 | 1114 | | 7878 | -272 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 即树目 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | ...

新华社记者赵子硕 港口不息，引航工作便全年无休。 新华社天津2月8日电 题：当引航员！这双船舶的"眼睛"不一般 上午10时，在天津港引航中心，引航员孙勃已收拾好救生衣，检查调试完设备。记者和他一起出发，驱车前往天津港集装箱码头，想体验一 回当引航员的感受。 在这里，停靠在码头的"中远海法"轮整装待发，它搭载着来自京津冀等地的日用品、冷链冻品等，计划途经大连等地后驶往东南亚。 "今天的首趟任务就是将'中远海法'轮从码头引航至天津港锚地完成出港。"孙勃告诉记者，引航员熟知本港口的水文与航道情况，负责指挥 拖轮、引导船舶安全完成靠泊与离泊作业，"我们相当于船舶靠离泊阶段的'代驾'，作业是否安全高效事关整个港区的正常运转。" 抵达泊位后，记者随孙勃来到船身旁的登船梯处。庞大的船体近在咫尺，金属船身泛着光泽。"今天风力不算大，浪高不到1米，对引航工作 来说，算非常不错的海况。"孙勃说。 风浪虽不大，但连接码头和船舶的登船梯高达十余米，随着船体轻微晃动。"一定要看清脚下，用两只手抓紧两侧扶手。"孙勃边登梯边回头 再三叮嘱记者。 得益于当天的好天气，货轮仅用半小时便完成离泊作业，沿着航道朝着更广阔的渤海湾驶去。忙碌暂告一段 ...

Economic Growth and Development - In 2025, Shanghai's GDP is projected to reach 5.67 trillion yuan, representing a 5.4% increase from the previous year, successfully meeting the annual and "14th Five-Year" economic growth targets [3] - The growth target for 2023 is set at around 5%, focusing on deepening reform and opening up, promoting consumption, expanding effective demand, and enhancing the quality of life [3] Industrial Development - Shanghai's industrial output value exceeded 4 trillion yuan last year, marking a historical high, with a focus on high-end industries as a key driver for high-quality development [4][5] - The city aims to create new trillion-level industries in sectors like smart terminals and commercial aerospace during the "15th Five-Year" period, while optimizing the business environment for enterprises [5] Foreign Investment and Trade - By the end of last year, Shanghai had recognized 1,076 multinational company regional headquarters and 636 foreign R&D centers, with plans to establish over 6,300 new foreign enterprises by 2025, reflecting a 6.8% year-on-year growth [6] - The foreign trade volume is expected to exceed 4.5 trillion yuan by 2025, with growth rates for imports and exports projected to surpass national averages [10] Employment and Skills Development - Shanghai plans to create over 600,000 new jobs by 2026, with a focus on enhancing skills and supporting long-term unemployed youth [12] - The city will leverage the upcoming World Skills Competition to promote new skills and align vocational training with market needs [12] Technological Innovation - Shanghai ranks first in comprehensive technological innovation among Chinese provinces and aims to increase R&D expenditure to 4.5% of GDP by 2025, with a focus on basic research [13] - The city is committed to fostering innovation ecosystems and enhancing the efficiency of its innovation system [13] Elderly Care and Consumer Services - Shanghai has established 122 smart elderly care facilities and plans to enhance technology-driven services in community and home-based elderly care [8] - The city has introduced guidelines for building senior-friendly shopping environments to cater to the elderly population [8]

福建发布海浪蓝色预警 厦金"小三通"客运航线停航 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 中新社福州2月8日电 (记者 龙敏)受冷空气影响，福建省沿海海区8日有8级以上东北大风。厦门五通客 运码头通报称，厦门至金门"小三通"客运航线8日16时10分起停航，当日后续船班全部取消。 福建省海洋预报台当天发布海浪蓝色预警称，8日下午至9日上午，福建各大渔场和钓鱼岛海域将出现 4.0至5.55米的巨浪，9日上午减小到3.0至4.3米的大浪到巨浪；平潭、莆田、泉州和漳州沿岸海域将出现 2.3至3.3米的中浪到大浪，9日上午减小到1.3至2.3米的中浪；宁德、福州和厦门沿岸海域将出现1.5至2.5 米的中浪到大浪，9日上午减小到1.0至2.0米的轻浪到中浪。 连日来，冷空气频频影响福建，对航运、滨海旅游和渔业等行业产生不利影响。2月8日，福州马尾至马 祖"小三通"客运航线已连续两天双向停航。 另 ...

（来源：南京晨报） 晨报讯(通讯员 赵晓博 南京晨报/爱南京记者 陈彦)2月6日，在南京海事局的保障下，"舜通集601"轮 和"舜通集602"轮组成的全国首支千吨级纯甲醇电动智能船队，由南京江北新区西坝港区鸣笛起航，驶 往安徽合肥，不仅填补了千吨级规模化纯甲醇电动智能船队运营的行业空白，更为南京区域性航运物流 中心建设注入强劲绿色动能。 据了解，"舜通集601"轮和"舜通集602"轮核心优势在于搭载了我国自主研发制造、具有国际领先水平的 纯甲醇电动智能动力系统，单次甲醇加注续航里程超1500km，续航能力是同吨位纯电动船舶的7倍以 上，彻底破解了纯电船舶续航短、补能难的行业短板。相较于传统燃油船舶，该纯甲醇电动智能船采 用"甲醇发电+锂电储能+变频电控"解耦设计，可灵活实现甲醇电力推进、纯电推进、增程推进等多种 模式智能切换，精准匹配不同航行工况需求，能源利用效率较传统燃油船提升20%，船舶运营燃料成本 较传统燃油船下降30%以上，各项污染物排放量较传统燃油船削减95%以上，成功实现环保效益、经济 效益与运营效益的三重提升。 转自：南京晨报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector remains at a high level of prosperity, with oil tanker market conditions particularly strong due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions impacting oil supply [6][17] - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stocks that provide stable dividend assets, with a recommendation for Wanhua Express [18] - The aviation industry shows an upward trend in fundamentals for 2026, with significant increases in passenger volume and ticket prices during the Spring Festival [21][34] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a return to mid-to-high single-digit growth rates in 2026, with a focus on valuation and competitive positioning [20][21] Shipping Sector Summary - Oil tanker market conditions are buoyed by geopolitical risks, with VLCC rates at $124,000/day, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [13][55] - The dry bulk market has seen fluctuations, with the BDI index at 1923 points, down 10.5% week-on-week [53] - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][17] Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data shows significant growth in freight traffic, with road truck traffic at 56.83 million vehicles, a 506.1% year-on-year increase [18][59] - Port throughput reached 281.597 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [18][59] - The report suggests focusing on stable cash flow assets in the port sector, highlighting their current undervaluation [18] Aviation Sector Summary - During the Spring Festival, passenger traffic increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with domestic ticket prices rising by 6.1% [21][34] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of profit elasticity for the aviation industry due to improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices [34] - The report emphasizes monitoring Spring Festival data and its impact on market sentiment [34] Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.6% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with a slowdown expected in 2026 [20][21] - The report highlights the competitive landscape and the potential for valuation recovery in the sector [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air cargo: The outbound air cargo price index at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - Shipping: VLCC freight rates increased by 2%, while the BDI decreased by 10% and SCFI decreased by 4% [7][48]. - The report highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% for aircraft imports over the next three years, indicating a supply constraint in the aviation sector [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends leading companies in express logistics, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the instant retail leader Shunfeng Tongcheng, which is expected to benefit from rapid growth and low valuation [7][31]. - The report also highlights the importance of dividend-paying assets, recommending Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for dividend increases [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

Fixed Income - Long-term bond yields are expected to decline by 5-10 basis points, with the 10Y and 30Y government bond yields having decreased nearly 10 basis points since January 7, 2026 [2][7] - As of February 6, 2026, brokers and funds have net sold over 108.6 billion yuan in ultra-long-term bonds (remaining maturity over 20 years), while insurance funds have net bought 120.6 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investment strategy [2][7] - The current steep yield curve suggests that banks may increase their allocation to government bonds as their funding costs decrease, with expectations for the 10Y government bond yield to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% in 2026 [2][7] Transportation - Korean shipping company Sinokor plans to sell all its container ships to Mediterranean Shipping Company for approximately 2.5 to 3 billion USD and focus on Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), which may reshape oil shipping pricing logic [19][20] - The VLCC market is sensitive to supply-side changes, with a significant portion of the fleet expected to reach 20 years of age starting in 2026, potentially leading to a supply shortage and upward pressure on freight rates [21][22] Home Appliances - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, which may lead to a recovery in valuations for home appliance companies, particularly in the white goods sector [23][24] - Recent data indicates that the inventory of commercial housing is gradually decreasing, and the transaction volume of second-hand homes in major cities is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of pressure on domestic demand [23][24] Metals and New Materials - Copper prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to inventory accumulation, with recent data showing a rise in copper stocks across various markets [27][28] - The aluminum market is also facing similar trends, with prices expected to fluctuate as inventory levels rise, while demand remains stable [29] - The supply of tungsten and rare earth elements is tightening, leading to sustained high prices for these materials [5] New Consumption - Huangshan Tourism plans to invest 530 million yuan in a hotel project to enhance its tourism offerings, which aligns with the growing visitor numbers to the Huangshan scenic area [33] - In January 2025, Tmall's beauty sales grew by 24% year-on-year, indicating a stable competitive landscape in the beauty sector [33]

Domestic Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with subway passenger volume up 8.8% compared to the same period in 2024, and domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500, a 1.6% increase year-on-year[2] - Movie ticket revenue has decreased by 37.2% year-on-year, averaging 62.245 million yuan per day[2] - Passenger car sales in January were 679,000 units, down 31.7% from the previous year[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1993.2, showing a marginal decline but significantly higher than the previous year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1122.2, down 4.5% week-on-week and 16.4% year-on-year[2] - Port cargo throughput reached 281.597 million tons, a 25.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024[2] Production Sector - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.55%[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 72.76%[2] - PTA production increased by 35,500 tons to 1.4639 million tons, with an operating rate of 76.29%[2] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low, with pork prices down 1.12% week-on-week and vegetable prices down 1.46%[3][4] - Producer Price Index (PPI) shows significant increases in coking coal and coke prices, while non-ferrous metals have adjusted downwards due to a stronger dollar and seasonal demand decline[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations netted 756 billion yuan this week, with SHIBOR rates showing a seasonal decline[5] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 30-year yield at 2.2510% and the 10-year yield at 1.8102%[5] International Context - U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 57.3, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.5%, the lowest in 13 months[5] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6%, indicating a return to expansion, with new orders and production indices showing significant growth[7]