国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年08月03日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：震荡承压 | | • | 本周(20250724-0730)，中国尿素生产企业产量：135.48万吨，较上期涨0.01万吨，环比涨0.01%。周期内新增3家企业装置停车，停车企业恢复4 家（装置）企业，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量小幅增加。下周，中国尿素周产量预计134-135万吨附近，较本期小幅减少。下个周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期可能3家企业装置计划停车，2-3家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量小幅减少的概 | | | | 率较大。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，内需短期持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显 | | | | ...

Core Insights - The performance meeting of Cangge Mining highlighted that China's potassium chloride consumption is expected to show a trend of rising and then falling from January to June 2025, peaking at 1.71 million tons in March before returning to 1.3 million tons in June [1] Industry Summary - In the first half of 2025, the total domestic production of potassium chloride is approximately 2.55 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.49% [1] - The import dependency for potassium fertilizer exceeds 70%, indicating a high reliance on foreign sources for potassium fertilizer [1] - The upcoming autumn and winter fertilization season is anticipated to further stimulate demand in the potassium fertilizer market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3][4] 2. Core Views Market Analysis - Cost and profit: Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, profits are narrowing [2]. - Supply: The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply. The output and operating rate of urea plants are expected to remain high in August [2][15]. - Imports and exports: After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. Urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [2][30]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.7%, and that of melamine is 63.5%. Urea enterprises' order days are 6.1 days. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of urea enterprises is 917,000 tons. As demand weakens in the second half of the month, upstream inventory begins to accumulate. The port inventory is 493,000 tons. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - In July, affected by the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", coking coal and coke futures led the rise, and urea futures were driven by sentiment, with the futures price rising significantly. However, after the macro - favorable factors dissipated at the end of the month, the futures price quickly declined, and the market returned to fundamental trading. Meanwhile, it was continuously disturbed by export - related policies. As the peak season for summer agricultural demand ends, downstream demand gradually weakens, upstream inventory accumulates, and urea prices mainly fluctuate weakly [9]. Urea Output - The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The domestic monthly urea output in August is expected to reach 6.1 million tons, a slight increase from July. There are few planned urea plant overhauls, and the daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply [15]. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Currently, coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, production profits are narrowing. In July, the overall operating rate of urea was 84.3%, a 2.4% decrease from the previous month. The coal - based operating rate was 84.4%, a 3.6% decrease from the previous month, and the gas - based operating rate was 81%, a 2.4% increase from the previous month. With few planned urea plant overhauls in the future, the operating rate of urea plants is expected to remain high in August [20]. Urea Import and Export Volume and Export Profit - In June 2025, urea imports were 27.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 87%. In June 2025, urea exports were 66,200 tons. After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. With the relaxation of domestic export policies, urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen significantly, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [30]. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - At the end of July, the operating rate of compound fertilizers was 38.7%, an 8.6% increase from the previous month. The operating rate of melamine was 63.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. Urea enterprises' order days were 6.1 days, roughly the same as the previous month. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [40]. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - At the end of July, the inventory of urea enterprises was 917,000 tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous month. In the first half of July, it was still the peak season for downstream demand, and urea inventory decreased. However, as demand weakened in the second half of the month, inventory began to accumulate. The port inventory was 493,000 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from the previous month. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [44].

05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 情绪降温，价格走低 尿素周报 2025/08/02 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 受国内商品情绪降温叠加自身供需偏弱影响，尿素价格持续走弱，现货跌幅小于盘面，基差低位走高。国内农业需求进入扫 尾阶段，需求逐步走弱。目前尿素仍是低估值与弱供需的格局，后续需求仍主要集中在出口以及复合肥上，当前矛盾相对有 | | --- | --- | | | 限，受整体商品情绪影响较大。 | | 基本面 | 供应  国内开工83.6%，环比上周-0.1%，目前日产19.08万吨。   各工艺利润均处于中低位。 | | |  短停装置较多，短期开工延续震荡下行，但同比仍在高位。 | | | 短期出口对接不畅。利好提振有限。 | | | 需求  复合肥开工38.68%，环比+5.1%，开工有所提速，企业提前建仓，成品库存同比高位。 | | | ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【7月尿素主力09合约宽幅震荡，后市价格或继续调整】7月，尿素主力09合约宽幅震荡，价格冲高回落 且波动弹性大。外围情绪扰动主导价格波动，市场情绪反复致盘面价格趋势不明显。月底，尿素主力期 价随商品整体情绪降温而下移。 从基本面供需看，供给端相对稳定，存量负荷变动小。需求上，复合 肥负荷季节性增量和出口提振，使尿素产业去库顺畅。但月底因终端采购积极性差、港口库存回落和煤 炭价格调整，产业库存反弹。本月尿素供需改善有限，对盘面助力不足。 展望后市，宏观与产业博弈 或持续。市场对后续宏观有预期，而尿素需求支撑有限，农业需求褪去，工业需求增量不足，产业仍面 临去库压力。预计8月尿素价格宽幅震荡调整概率大。 套利方面，09合约将演绎交割逻辑，反弹动能不 足。随着主力合约移仓，预估UR09&01价差走弱动能趋缓，前期反套可逐步获利平仓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for urea in July experienced significant fluctuations, with prices rising and then falling, influenced by external market sentiments and a lack of clear trends in price movements [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side remained relatively stable with minimal changes in existing load [1] - Demand increased seasonally due to higher compound fertilizer loads and export boosts, leading to smooth destocking in the urea industry [1] - However, at the end of the month, low terminal purchasing enthusiasm, declining port inventories, and adjustments in coal prices caused a rebound in industry inventories [1] Market Outlook - The overall improvement in supply and demand for urea was limited, providing insufficient support for market prices [1] - Future market dynamics are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry conditions, with limited support for urea demand due to declining agricultural needs and insufficient industrial demand growth [1] - It is anticipated that urea prices will likely continue to experience wide fluctuations and adjustments in August [1] Arbitrage Opportunities - The 09 contract is expected to gradually reflect delivery logic, with insufficient rebound momentum [1] - As the main contract transitions, the price spread between UR09 and UR01 is expected to weaken, allowing for gradual profit-taking from previous short positions [1]

证券之星消息，截至2025年8月1日收盘，亚钾国际(000893)报收于31.54元，下跌1.68%，换手率 1.18%，成交量9.61万手，成交额3.03亿元。 8月1日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入1844.53万元，占总成交额6.09%，游资资金净流入778.49 万元，占总成交额2.57%，散户资金净流出2623.02万元，占总成交额8.66%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： | | | | | 日期 收盘价 涨跌幅 主力净流入 主力净占比 游资净齿比 散户净流入 散户净占比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-01 | 31.54 -1.68% | | 1844.53万 | 6.09% | 778.49万 | 2.57% | -2623.02万 | -8.66% | | 2025-07-31 | 32.08 -1.81% | | 1506.51万 | 4.86% | 672.69万 | 2.17% | -2179.19万 | -7.03% | | 2025-07-30 | | 32. ...

从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的化肥行业行业市盈率平均25.32倍，行业中值22.28倍，亚钾国际排 名第16位。 股东方面，截至2025年3月31日，亚钾国际股东户数24370户，较上次减少1088户，户均持股市值35.28 万元，户均持股数量2.76万股。 最新一期业绩显示，2025年一季报，公司实现营业收入12.13亿元，同比91.47%；净利润3.84亿元，同 比373.53%，销售毛利率54.12%。 8月1日，亚钾国际今日收盘31.54元，下跌1.68%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度每股收益总和的 比值）达到23.25倍，总市值291.45亿元。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)12亚钾国际23.2530.662.41291.45亿行业平均 25.3226.562.58168.13亿行业中值22.2824.181.7778.99亿1云天化8.558.281.87441.53亿2史丹利 11.7812.491.45103.21亿3新洋丰11.9913.551.62178.17亿4云图控股15.2816.051.44129.11亿5司尔特 17.1815.020.8746. ...

尿素日报 | 2025-08-01 农需追肥结束，尿素基本面偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-31，尿素主力收盘1714元/吨（-28）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1770元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：56 元/吨（+28）；河南基差：66元/吨（+28）；江苏基差：66元/吨（+18）；尿素生产利润240元/吨（+0），出口利润1060 元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-07-31，企业产能利用率83.60%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.73 万吨（+5.85），港口样本 库存量为49.30 万吨（-5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-07-31，复合肥产能利用率38.68%（+5.10%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.50%（-1.70%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.12日（+0.18）。 当前宏观氛围转弱，拖累盘面下行。尿素基本面偏弱，仍处于弱现实。需求端走弱，农业需求追肥结束，工业需 求复合肥开工提升缓慢。煤制装置夏季检修季，部分工厂开工率有所下滑，但整体供应量依 ...

尿素周报2025/7/28 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 内卷不如外卷 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 偏多 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量下滑但仍处于高位；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥开 工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，内卷不如外卷，出口政策仍有放开 | | | | 预期。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | | 偏多 | | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言小包装尿素出口停止，其他尿素出口仍在进行。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业原料库存尚可，采购需求平稳。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续小幅下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移。 | | | 偏多 | | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步 ...