Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, with enterprise inventories accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea market is still in a situation of significant oversupply. Although the international urea price is strong, it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the urea main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Positive Factors - International prices are strong [5] Negative Factors - High daily production at high operating rates [5] - Weak domestic demand [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Analysis of Each Indicator - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are slightly down but still high, with enterprise inventories accumulating in many provinces. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the third batch of export quotas has limited support for domestic prices. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-40), with a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 91, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.686 million tons (+161,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong but have limited support for domestic prices. With weak industrial and agricultural demand and significant domestic oversupply, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | - 20 | 01 Contract | 1609 | - 61 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | - 20 | Basis | 91 | 41 | | Henan Spot | 1720 | 0 | UR01 | 1609 | - 61 | | FOB China | 3097 | | UR05 | 1677 | - 40 | | | | | UR09 | 1701 | - 41 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt | 7017 | - 152 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.686 million tons | + 161,000 tons | | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.086 million tons | | | UR Port Inventory | 600,000 tons | | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing a weak downward trend in prices due to high supply levels and cautious purchasing attitudes from downstream sectors [1][2][3]. Supply Pressure - In September, urea production slightly decreased to 5.78 million tons, a month-on-month decline of 2.51%, while the year-on-year growth rate narrowed to 2.54% [2]. - Despite the production decline, urea inventories have accumulated for seven consecutive weeks, reaching 1.2182 million tons by September 25, an increase of 12.19% from the end of August and 20.15% year-on-year [2]. - New production capacities totaling 1.8 million tons were added in late August, further enhancing market supply capabilities [2]. - Weekly average production reached 201,500 tons by September 25, significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating ongoing supply pressure [2]. Demand Weakness - Downstream demand for urea remains weak, particularly in agriculture, where September is a traditional off-season for nitrogen demand [3]. - The demand from compound fertilizer producers is decreasing seasonally, and industrial demand, particularly from melamine and formaldehyde sectors, is also low [3]. - Despite falling urea prices, there has been no significant increase in purchasing willingness from downstream buyers, keeping prices under pressure [3]. Export Policy Impact - Urea production costs are under pressure due to fluctuating coal prices, with most production processes operating near breakeven [4]. - October is typically a low-demand season for electricity, leading to reduced coal consumption and potential short-term pressure on coal prices, which may weaken cost support for urea [4]. - However, with winter approaching, coal demand is expected to rise, and potential weather-related disruptions could support raw material prices in the long term [4]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the urea market is expected to maintain a loose supply structure with prices likely to remain weak [5]. - Long-term prospects may improve as supply-demand dynamics gradually stabilize and raw material costs provide potential support [5]. - The key factor for price recovery will be the actual evolution of supply-demand conditions in the fourth quarter, along with monitoring changes in export policies [5].

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齐盛期货： 综上，目前尿素行业维持供大于求态势，尿素价格或继续震荡偏弱运行。 五矿期货： 基本面来看，国内供应回归，开工大幅走高，企业利润依旧低位，供应压力有所增大。需求端复合肥停 车陆续增多，开工季节性下行为主，农业需求淡季，需求表现一般，市场情绪依旧偏弱，企业库存维持 走高。目前依旧是低估值叠加弱驱动，现实缺乏有效利好，单边难有大级别趋势，基差与月间价差较 弱，价格低位下建议逢低关注多单为主。 消息面 10月9日，河北田原化工尿素小颗粒出厂报价下调至1590元/吨；河北东光尿素小颗粒出厂报价下调至 1610元/吨；江苏华昌尿素报价参考1610元/吨，实际成交再议。 10月1日印度RCF再次发布新一轮国际尿素进口招标，10月15日截标，报盘有效期至10月30日，最晚船 期12月10日。此次招标印度仍计划采购200万吨。 上期中国尿素企业总库存量116.53万吨，超于上周预期，尿素港口样本库存量为51.6万吨，高于上周预 期。 机构观点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is increasing, with expected growth of 8 - 12% year - on - year. The daily output is likely to reach a new high in Q4. Demand is diverse: agricultural demand awaits the spread of autumn fertilization; industrial demand shows narrow fluctuations; and export demand is expected to be released in October - November. The long - term price of urea is under pressure due to supply, but short - term pulse - type price increases may occur based on seasonal factors. Attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and potential positive spread opportunities [51]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Futures and Spot Price Review - **Futures Price**: In September, the urea futures price oscillated downward, closing at 1670 yuan/ton on September 30, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton or 4.19% from the beginning of the month [5]. - **Spot Price**: In the Henan market from January - September 2025, the price of small and medium - sized urea ranged from 1565 to 1962 yuan/ton. On September 23, it was 1609 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton or 6.07% from the beginning of the month. The main basis in major markets weakened, with Henan at - 49 yuan/ton, Shandong at - 58 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia at - 108 yuan/ton, and Shaanxi at - 118 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - **Capacity**: In Q3, four urea plants were put into production, with a total new capacity of about 520 tons in 2025 so far [11]. - **Production**: From January - September 2025, the total urea production was 5387.15 tons, a year - on - year increase of 590.45 tons or 12.3%. The daily average output was higher than historical values, currently above 19 tons [14]. 3. Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - **Cost**: The anthracite market price first rose and then stabilized. As of September 30, the prices in Shanxi's Jincheng and Yangquan areas remained stable compared to the previous week [18]. - **Profit**: Due to rising coal prices and falling urea prices, the profit margin of urea was compressed, approaching the level of January - February [18]. 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - **Agricultural Production Conditions**: In 2024, the national grain sown area increased by 0.3%. With the improvement of agricultural conditions, more attention is paid to increasing grain yield per unit area. The demand for autumn fertilizers such as wheat base fertilizer is gradually being released [23]. - **Autumn Harvest Progress**: The autumn harvest is progressing steadily across the country, and the sowing of winter wheat in Gansu has begun [28]. 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - **Compound Fertilizer**: In Q3, the compound fertilizer operating rate first rose and then fell, currently at 37 - 39%. From January - September 2025, the output was 3849 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65 tons or 1.72%. The inventory is at a historical high but is showing a slight downward trend [33]. - **Melamine**: The consumption in the building materials and home furnishing market first increased and then decreased. The operating rate of melamine enterprises is 55.76%. From January - August 2025, the production was 103.58 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.29 tons, while exports increased by 2.5 tons [39]. - **Desulfurization and Denitrification**: From January - July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power generation increased by 0.76 billion kilowatts year - on - year. However, the total thermal power generation from January - August decreased by 0.51% year - on - year [44]. 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - **Export Volume**: From January - August 2025, China's total fertilizer exports were 2792 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. Urea exports were 144 tons, a year - on - year increase of 492.3%. The port inventory of urea is at a historical high [47]. 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - **Enterprise Inventory**: The urea enterprise inventory is at 119.5 tons, mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and other regions [49]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts and Delivery**: There are currently 7211 registered warehouse receipts, totaling 14.422 tons of urea. The delivery volume of the 2509 contract increased by 6.408 tons year - on - year, with an average delivery price of 1643 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.71% year - on - year [49]. 8. Urea后市行情展望 - **Supply**: In Q4, urea supply is expected to maintain a growth rate of 8 - 12% year - on - year, with the daily output potentially reaching a new high [51]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand awaits the spread of autumn fertilization; industrial demand shows narrow fluctuations; and export demand is expected to be released in October - November [51]. - **Market Outlook**: In the long - term, urea prices are under pressure due to supply. In the short - term, there may be pulse - type price increases. Attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and potential positive spread opportunities [51].

Price Trends in Various Markets - The national production material market prices remained stable from September 22 to 28, with minor fluctuations observed in specific categories [1] - Basic chemical raw materials saw slight declines, with sulfur down 3.8%, polypropylene down 1.3%, and methanol down 0.5%, while soda ash remained stable [1] - Fertilizer prices experienced a slight decrease, with urea down 0.6%, while compound fertilizers remained stable [1] - Steel prices were generally stable, with channel steel and hot-rolled strip steel decreasing by 0.5% and 0.4% to 3639 yuan and 3574 yuan per ton respectively, while rebar increased by 0.2% to 3391 yuan per ton [1] - Wholesale prices for finished oil products remained stable, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline showing no significant changes [1] Specific Material Price Changes - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with both natural and synthetic rubber rising by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices showed a mixed trend, with thermal coal remaining stable at 759 yuan per ton, while coking coal and anthracite increased by 2.1% and 0.5% to 1021 yuan and 1142 yuan per ton respectively [2] Non-Ferrous Metal Price Movements - Non-ferrous metal prices were predominantly on the rise, with copper increasing by 1.7%, while zinc and aluminum saw slight declines of 0.6% and 0.1% respectively [3]

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market prices increased by 0.6% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.79 yuan per kilogram, rising by 2.4%, with specific increases in lettuce (9.7%), cauliflower (7.4%), and bitter melon (6.1%) [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, banana, and pear rising by 4.7%, 1.4%, and 0.9% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices slightly increased, with eggs and broiler chickens rising by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable with slight increases in rice (0.2%), peanut oil (0.1%), and rapeseed oil (0.1%) [1] - The wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable, with increases in large hairtail (1.1%) and large yellow croaker (0.8%), while crucian carp remained stable [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork at 19.54 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 1.4%, while lamb and beef increased by 1.0% and 0.7% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Basic chemical raw material prices saw a slight decline, with sulfuric acid, polypropylene, and methanol decreasing by 3.8%, 1.3%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices slightly decreased, with urea down by 0.6%, while compound fertilizers remained stable [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with slight decreases in channel steel and hot-rolled strip steel by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while rebar increased by 0.2% [2] - Refined oil wholesale prices remained stable across various types [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with both natural and synthetic rubber rising by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices showed slight increases, with thermal coal remaining stable, while coking coal and anthracite increased by 2.1% and 0.5% respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices were predominantly up, with copper increasing by 1.7%, while zinc and aluminum decreased by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing a continued downward trend in prices due to an oversupply situation, with current spot prices nearing historical lows, and this trend is expected to persist [1][6]. Supply Dynamics - Urea production capacity is entering a new growth cycle, with an expected increase of over 7 million tons by 2025, leading to an average daily production increase of 15,000 to 20,000 tons year-on-year, currently at around 200,000 tons, which is a five-year high [2]. - Urea inventories are at elevated levels, with enterprise stocks around 1.2 million tons, also a five-year high, and are expected to continue accumulating due to the off-season for agricultural demand [2]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is weakening as the autumn fertilizer application period concludes, with lower urea usage due to a focus on high-phosphorus fertilizers and non-concentrated purchasing [3]. - The operating rate for compound fertilizers has decreased from 42% to 38%, with expectations of continued decline, and finished product inventories are high at around 800,000 tons, marking a five-year peak [3]. - The production rate for melamine has significantly dropped from 72% to 46%, limiting its support for urea demand [5]. Cost Factors - The current coal market remains strong, with prices around 700 RMB per ton for 5500 kcal coal, providing some cost support for urea production, which has a complete cost range of 1,500 to 1,550 RMB per ton [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant price increases in synthetic ammonia, lithium battery electrolytes, aniline, and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, while other products like natural gas and sulfuric acid experienced notable declines [1][2][3] - As of September 26, Brent crude oil prices reached $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% from the previous week, while WTI crude oil prices were at $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% [1][3] - The report anticipates that the central value of international oil prices will stabilize between $65 and $70 by 2025 [1][3] Group 2 - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [4] - It suggests focusing on the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xinfeng Group, and Yangnong Chemical [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical fertilizer industries, particularly nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, which are expected to maintain stable demand, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heart Link Fertilizer [4] Group 3 - The chemical industry is currently experiencing mixed performance, with some sectors like lubricants exceeding expectations, while overall industry performance remains weak due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the lubricating oil additive sector and suggests companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [4] - The report also notes that the three major oil companies in China are expected to remain attractive due to their high asset quality and dividend yields in the context of rising international oil prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a novel method for detecting ethephon residues in compound fertilizers using Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS), addressing the lack of standardized methods for fertilizer matrices and providing a reliable technical foundation for regulatory monitoring and quality control [2][4][42]. Group 1: Method Development - A new UHPLC-MS/MS method was established to detect ethephon residues in compound fertilizers, optimizing key parameters based on SN/T 4522-2016 [4][7]. - The method replaced alkaline elution with an acidified extraction system (acetonitrile-0.1% formic acid), improving recovery rates from undetectable levels to 93.8%-104.5% [4][6]. - The method demonstrated excellent linearity (r=0.9993) within a range of 2-200 μg/L, with a quantitation limit of 0.005 mg/kg and relative standard deviation (RSD) of 1.3%-3.9% [4][29]. Group 2: Importance of Ethephon in Fertilizers - Ethephon is often added to fertilizers to enhance crop growth and development, but its presence raises concerns regarding potential residues in agricultural products [5][6]. - The complexity of compound fertilizers, which contain multiple nutrients and additives, necessitates effective monitoring of ethephon to ensure safety and compliance [5][7]. Group 3: Practical Application and Results - Actual sample testing revealed ethephon residues in commercial compound fertilizers, with detected levels of 0.008 mg/kg and 0.015 mg/kg in two batches [39][41]. - The study emphasizes the need for regulatory frameworks to monitor ethephon residues in fertilizers, highlighting the method's practical applicability for ensuring agricultural safety [42].