1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term geopolitical sentiment will dominate the 04 contract's trading, with significant external capital impact. Next week (week 12) is the actual booking window, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to observe cargo - booking conditions. Due to large price fluctuations, it is advisable to focus on right - side short - selling opportunities [3][23] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2604 closed at 1768.0 with a - 7.41% change; EC2605 at 1805.0 with a - 14.48% change; EC2606 at 1950.1 with a - 12.51% change; EC2607 at 2066.4 with a - 12.07% change; EC2608 at 2010.0 with a - 10.31% change; EC2609 at 1498.3 with a - 11.01% change; EC2610 at 1394.9 with a - 7.25% change; EC2612 at 1677.3 with a - 9.96% change [2][22] - **Contract Volumes and Positions**: EC2604 had a trading volume of 153840 and a position of 36679 with a change of - 1939; EC2605 had a volume of 6155 and a position of 1782 with a change of - 12; EC2606 had a volume of 30528 and a position of 20170 with a change of - 1467; EC2607 had a volume of 1091 and a position of 771 with a change of 72; EC2608 had a volume of 4342 and a position of 2964 with a change of - 113; EC2609 had a volume of 768 and a position of 477 with a change of - 102; EC2610 had a volume of 12355 and a position of 11408 with a change of - 611; EC2612 had a volume of 430 and a position of 354 with a change of - 109 [2][22] - **Contract Month - spreads**: EC2604 - 2606 was - 182.1 with a daily change of 137.3 and a weekly change of 223.1; EC2604 - 2605 was - 37 with a daily change of 164.1 and a weekly change of - 180.7; EC2606 - 2610 was 555.2 with a daily change of - 169.7 and a weekly change of 86.6 [2][22] Spot Market Information - **European Line Spot Situation**: In early March, MSC led a price increase to $3000, and most other shipping companies followed, raising prices to $3000 - 3100. In week 10, MSK, MSC, and YML maintained prices, OOCL increased by $100, and ONE and HMM increased by $200, with an average of $2200, equivalent to about 1560 points. In week 11, MSK opened at $1850 (a $100 decrease), and other companies mainly maintained prices, with YML offering two special - price ships at $1800. In week 12, MSK opened at $2250 (a $400 increase) [4][24][25] - **Spot Price Index**: The European line spot price on March 2, 2026, was 1463.40, a - 7.00% change from the previous period and a - 2.10% change from two periods ago. The SCFI on February 27, 2026, was $1420 per TEU [2][22] News and Related Information - **Shipping - related News**: On March 5, major global seafarers' unions declared the Middle East Gulf region, including the Strait of Hormuz, a war - action area, and seafarers were given the right to refuse to go there. Iranian officials made statements about not asking for a cease - fire, being ready to respond to a US ground invasion, being willing to abandon the nuclear program under certain conditions, and keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed during the war [6][26] - **Price Increase Announcements**: In mid - March, MSC announced a price increase to $3200 for weeks 12 - 13 and $4000 for week 12. On March 3, HPL and CMA raised their online quotes to $4193 and $3135 respectively. On March 5, YML's offline quote for the second half of the month was $4000 [5][25]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of military conflict in the Persian Gulf, specifically the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which has led to significant disruptions in shipping and oil transport [5][9][12] - Over 150 vessels are reported to be trapped in the Persian Gulf due to the conflict, with major shipping companies halting operations in the region [5][12][14] - The situation has caused anxiety among crew members, with reports of missile strikes and explosions affecting their operations and safety [19][21][22] Group 2 - The article highlights the challenges faced by crew members, including GPS failures and the need to navigate without satellite guidance during the conflict [18][19] - There are concerns about supplies on board, with some vessels having enough provisions for 40-70 days, but facing difficulties in obtaining fresh water due to the inability to convert seawater [30][32] - The article also mentions the psychological impact on crew members, who are coping with the stress of being trapped in a conflict zone while trying to maintain normalcy in their daily routines [31][32]

Macro Overview - In February, China's bulk commodity price index increased by 10.9% year-on-year [6] - The average transaction price in the passenger car market in January was 137,600 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.91% [6] - A recent report predicts that the global humanoid robot market will reach USD 29.5 billion by 2036 [6] - In January, there were 5,690 newly registered renewable energy power generation projects nationwide [6] Industry Dynamics - Yageo Corporation has raised the prices of chip capacitors, effective next month, benefiting companies like Dongfang Investment (000962) and Hongda Electronics (300726) [8] - The large-scale expansion of the U.S. power grid is expected to benefit Chinese power grid export orders, with related stocks including Guodian Nari (600406) and Sifang Co., Ltd. (601126) [8] - The "brain" of humanoid robots will have national standards, accelerating the commercialization process, with related stocks including Lingyi Zhi Zao (002600) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [8] Company Focus - Double Happiness Environmental Protection (001369): Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Double Happiness Chemical, plans to invest 542 million yuan to construct a second phase of industrial waste gas comprehensive utilization with an annual output of 100,000 tons of electronic-grade DMC and 30,000 tons of EMC/DEC [10] - Kangwei Century (688426): Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jianwei Diagnostics, has received a class "medical device registration certificate" from the National Medical Products Administration for nine self-developed nucleic acid test kits for respiratory pathogens (fluorescent PCR method) [10] - China Merchants Jinling (601975): Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanjing Yangyang, has a contract price of 492 million yuan for the construction of three 6,600-ton stainless steel chemical tankers at China Merchants Shipbuilding Yangzhou [10] Market Review and Outlook - On March 5, the total trading volume of the two markets was 23.9 billion yuan, with 3,864 stocks rising and 1,227 falling. The net inflow of funds into the market was 327 million yuan, an increase of 24.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [12] - The three major indices opened higher and showed a narrow range of fluctuations, forming a doji candlestick pattern. The yellow line representing small-cap stocks outperformed, while the white line representing large-cap stocks performed relatively weakly [12] - Market hotspots included significant net inflows in sectors like chips and data centers, while sectors such as panels and optical electronics saw substantial gains. Conversely, agriculture, oil and gas, and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced declines [12] - The market is currently in a low-volume rotation environment, making speculation more challenging, and caution is advised against excessive chasing of high-performing stocks [13]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: March 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - After the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for shipping. Short - term tariff issues may not trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic export rush is limited. The运力 supply in March and April remains at a high level in the same period of history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European routes, the Red Sea resumption plan is affected by the escalating Middle East situation, which can continue to digest the运力 pressure. However, it is difficult to change the fundamental pattern of oversupply of European routes. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may lead to a phased strengthening of the index but is also prone to significant corrections. Pay attention to the convergence of the spot and futures prices around the delivery period in the second half of March, and look for opportunities to short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 on rallies [8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market situation: In the afternoon, Iran officially stated that it did not block the Strait of Hormuz, and container shipping futures for European routes first soared and then dived. From the supply - demand fundamentals, it is still the off - season after the Spring Festival. The short - term tariff issue is unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the photovoltaic export rush demand is limited. The运力 supply in March and April is at a high level in the same period of history. Although the Strait of Hormuz blockade does not affect European routes, the Red Sea resumption plan is slowed down by the escalating Middle East situation, which can digest the运力 pressure. The current off - season price increase may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. Pay attention to the actual cargo - booking situation later [8] - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the convergence of the spot and futures prices around the delivery period in the second half of March. Look for opportunities to short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 on rallies [8] 4.2 Industry News - Overall market: After the Spring Festival, the Chinese export container shipping market is generally stable. The freight rates of ocean routes are rising, driving the comprehensive index up. On February 27, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1333.11 points, a 6.5% increase from the previous period [9] - European route: The eurozone's February composite PMI rose to 51.9, and the manufacturing PMI jumped from 49.5 to 50.8, reaching a 44 - month high. The European economy shows a good recovery momentum. The transportation demand remains stable, and the spot - market booking price has increased. On February 27, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in Europe was $1420/TEU, a 4.3% increase from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean route: The market situation is in sync with the European route, and the market freight rate has increased. On February 27, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the Mediterranean was $2305/TEU, a 5.9% increase from the previous period [10] - North American route: The US February composite PMI preliminary value dropped to 52.3, and the preliminary values of both the manufacturing and service PMIs declined slightly, showing a slowdown in the expansion speed. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's large - scale tariff measures were unconstitutional, bringing uncertainty to global trade. The transportation market is relatively stable, and the spot - market booking price has continued to rise. On February 27, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $1857/FEU and $2691/FEU respectively, with increases of 3.9% and 6.6% from the previous period [10] - Persian Gulf route: Due to the escalating geopolitical tensions and the upcoming "Ramadan", the spot - market freight rate has increased significantly. On February 27, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the Persian Gulf was $1327/TEU, a 35.4% increase from the previous period [10] - Geopolitical events: Trump said that a nuclear - armed Iran is unacceptable to the US, and the US military operations in Iran may last 4 - 5 weeks. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary said it would not negotiate with the US. An Iranian official said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed. Goldman Sachs estimated that European natural gas prices may rise by 130% and oil prices may rise by $18 per barrel. Morgan Stanley analysts said that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, Middle Eastern oil - producing countries can only continue production for "at most 25 days" [10] - Tariff - related events: The US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's tariffs were illegal. The US Customs and Border Protection will stop collecting relevant tariffs from February 24. The European Parliament postponed the vote on the EU - US trade agreement. Trump warned countries trying to take advantage of the ruling [10] 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - On March 2, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1463.4, a 7.0% decrease from February 23; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1045.08, a 6.0% decrease from February 23 [12] 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures for European routes on March 5, including contract information such as EC2604 - EC2612, with details on previous settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests [6] 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report presents multiple shipping - related data charts, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping futures for European routes, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][17][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [12] Core Views - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company has developed a "2+N" shipping platform focusing on oil and bulk cargo, with a diversified approach including container, roll-on/roll-off, and LNG shipping. The company has undergone two phases of development: from 2014 to 2020, it focused on oil and bulk cargo, implementing a "low-cost, large customer" strategy, and from 2021 onwards, it expanded into roll-on/roll-off and LNG businesses, becoming a rare "maritime ETF" in the market. The outlook suggests that geopolitical fluctuations will drive oil transportation demand compliance, and the company is expected to benefit from a resonance between oil and bulk cargo sectors, reaffirming the "Buy" rating [3][10][21]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The shipping industry exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, with high volatility indicating high risk and high return potential. The report suggests that an ETF approach could be a good investment strategy, particularly for a diversified company like China Merchants Energy Shipping, which has shown stable financial performance since 2017 despite the cyclical nature of the industry [6][27]. Company Overview - China Merchants Energy Shipping has maintained over 68% of its revenue from oil and bulk cargo over the past five years, with gross profit contributions exceeding 54%. The company has strategically expanded its fleet and optimized its structure through low-cost shipbuilding and acquisitions, particularly in the oil and bulk sectors, while also venturing into LNG shipping [7][41]. Oil Transportation - Geopolitical factors are expected to create unexpected demand throughout the year, with the emergence of shadow markets accelerating compliance processes. The report estimates that compliance from countries like Venezuela, Iran, and Russia could lead to a demand for 33.12 to 53.73 million DWT of capacity, indicating a supply gap. Additionally, the entry of Sinokor as a market disruptor controlling VLCC capacity is expected to drive spot rates to new highs, reflecting optimistic industry sentiment [8][9]. Bulk Transportation - The report anticipates an improvement in the bulk cargo market by the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as the commissioning of new projects, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts enhancing global liquidity, and the reconstruction of Ukraine. The supply side is expected to remain moderate, suggesting a potential turning point for the industry [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that after years of strategic development, China Merchants Energy Shipping has established a resilient "2+N" shipping platform. The dual focus on oil and bulk cargo is expected to yield significant returns, while the expansion into roll-on/roll-off and LNG businesses enhances the company's safety margin. Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.3 billion, 11.36 billion, and 12.54 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.7, 12.6, and 11.4, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [10][11][73].

Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key task for economic development in 2026, with fiscal spending expected to maintain a considerable scale [5][6] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5-5%, with a focus on achieving better results in practice [5] - The report emphasizes the need for investment expansion, with a planned central budget investment of 755 billion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan from 2025 [7] Macroeconomic Overview - The government work report indicates that consumer price index (CPI) growth is targeted at around 2.0% for 2026, with efforts to improve the overall supply-demand relationship [6] - The fiscal deficit target for 2026 is set at approximately 5.89 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, consistent with 2025 [6][7] - The manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 49.0%, indicating a continued contraction in manufacturing activity [9][10] Industry Performance - The report notes that the communication sector saw a rise of 2.84%, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector declined by 2.02% [4] - The electric equipment and machinery sectors also experienced positive growth, with increases of 2.18% and 2.05% respectively [4] - The manufacturing price index remains in an expansion zone, with the main raw material purchase price index at 54.8% [10][11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that traditional industries will be prioritized for quality upgrades, with 200 billion yuan allocated for large-scale equipment updates [7] - There is a strong emphasis on nurturing emerging and future industries, with a target for R&D expenditure to grow by over 7% annually [7] - The report indicates that high-tech manufacturing investment remains robust, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 16.9% in aerospace and equipment manufacturing fixed asset investment [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Full-year earnings and cash flow increased compared to 2024, with a cash position of $637 million, of which $164 million is restricted [16][17] - Average debt maturity extended to 4.5 years, with a blended cost of debt reduced to 4.49% [17][18] - Leverage reduced from 8.4x in 2018 to 0.5x today, demonstrating significant balance sheet improvement [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has over $2.2 billion in forward contracted revenues with 2.7 years of remaining contract cover, having added 52 charters worth $1.26 billion [10][30] - The company has maintained a strong focus on mid-size and smaller container ships, which are flexible and can be employed worldwide [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aggregate global containerized trade increased by 5% in 2025, with U.S. import volumes also growing year-on-year [4] - The charter market remains strong, with charterers willing to pay attractive rates even for older ships [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize optionality to mitigate risks and seize value-accretive opportunities, focusing on strategic fleet renewal [5][7] - A disciplined capital allocation policy is in place to capitalize on opportunities during market downturns [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions in the Middle East, have increased unpredictability and volatility in trade patterns [4][20] - The company anticipates that disruptions in the Middle East will lead to increased freight rates once shipping routes are reopened [50] Other Important Information - The company raised its quarterly dividend to $2.50 per share on an annualized basis, reflecting confidence in its financial position [6][31] - The company has transformed its balance sheet, reducing debt and increasing liquidity, which has been recognized by credit rating agencies [6][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the convergence of charter and freight rates? - Management noted that while it is difficult to predict, there remains strong appetite from charterers to lock in charters at high rates for meaningful durations [37][38] Question: How does the company plan to allocate cash in the coming year? - The company emphasized the importance of maintaining cash for opportunities, particularly during market downturns, as demonstrated by recent ship acquisitions [39][40] Question: What caused the significant jump in SG&A expenses? - Management clarified that the increase was related to the valuation of the incentive plan, which is a non-cash item [41] Question: What is the impact of the geopolitical situation on container shipping? - Management indicated that while only a small percentage of containers flow through the Persian Gulf, the implications for liner companies' networks are significant, leading to increased demand for ships [48][49]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income from continued operations for Q4 2025 was reported at $28.4 million, with a fixed distribution of $0.15 dividends per share, marking the 75th consecutive quarter of cash dividends since the company's listing in March 2007 [6][8] - The company closed the year with a solid cash position of $296 million, including restricted cash, and a net leverage ratio just short of 49% [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has pivoted to gas transportation, selling the Buenaventura Express and classifying it under discontinued operations, leaving only one container vessel in operation [7][8] - The LNG fleet has a contracted backlog of 90 years at an average TCE of approximately $86,800 per day, representing $2.7 billion of contracted revenue [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The LNG shipping spot market experienced a robust upturn in Q4, with freight rates reaching $100,000 per day, driven by unexpected LNG production surges and logistical constraints [5][17] - Spot rates for LNG carriers rose significantly, with rates exceeding $300,000 per day for March and April loadings, indicating a tight market due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on sustainability and has gained accreditation from the CDP, emphasizing its commitment to governance and environmental responsibility [5] - A recent order for three new LNG carriers positions the company to benefit from increased LNG shipping demand towards the end of the decade, reflecting a strategic focus on modern, high-efficiency vessels [12][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the impact of the Middle East conflict on LNG and gas shipping sectors, highlighting the increased geopolitical risks and potential disruptions to energy supply [24][25] - The company anticipates that the LNG shipping market will reach an inflection point in late 2027 or early 2028, with demand expected to outpace vessel supply, creating a constructive long-term outlook [23] Other Important Information - The company successfully raised EUR 250 million through a newly issued unsecured bond, which will be used to refinance existing debt and finance the new building program [15] - The company is in advanced discussions for financing the remaining LNG carriers, with expectations for more updates in the next quarterly call [59] Q&A Session Summary Question: Implications of Middle Eastern supply shutdown on the carrier market - Management indicated that the shutdown of Middle Eastern supplies could lead to increased prices in Asia, as there are no alternatives to replace Qatari volumes, potentially resulting in significantly higher freight rates if the situation persists [30][31] Question: Timeline for disposal of the last container vessel - Management stated that the decision to sell the last container vessel will be opportunistic, depending on market conditions, and they are comfortable holding it until closer to the end of the charter [33][34] Question: Impact of spot rates on new builds and charter opportunities - Management confirmed that while the current spot rates do not have an immediate effect, there is potential for increased inquiries for term charters as the market tightens [38][41] Question: Status of vessels affected by Middle Eastern developments - Management confirmed that none of their vessels are currently affected by the conflict, and all charters continue as planned [58] Question: Remaining newbuild CapEx financing - Management indicated that all MGCs and LCO2s have been financed, and they are in discussions for the remaining LNG carriers, with more details expected in the next quarter [59]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector in A-shares has experienced significant volatility due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, leading to operational adjustments and market reactions among various shipping companies [1][5]. Group 1: Impact on Shipping Companies - China Ocean Shipping Group (COSCO) announced the suspension of new bookings for several routes to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz [1][2]. - COSCO's fleet capacity is 135 million deadweight tons across 1,660 vessels, ranking first globally, with operations covering over 1,500 ports in more than 160 countries [2]. - Other companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard reported normal operations but acknowledged potential impacts from the conflict, particularly in energy transportation [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Fluctuations - The shipping index saw a sharp decline of 2.77% on March 5, following a brief rebound earlier in the day, reflecting market uncertainty [1]. - The shipping sector experienced rapid fluctuations, with the container shipping index (European line) hitting a ceiling for two consecutive days before a significant drop on March 4 [5][6]. - Analysts noted that the geopolitical situation has led to increased freight rates, with the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market showing strong demand and rising prices due to supply constraints [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - Companies are adopting flexible pricing strategies and focusing on high-potential markets to enhance resilience against market volatility [4]. - The ongoing conflict is expected to elevate global shipping prices in the short term, with potential long-term impacts on supply chains if the situation persists [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that the current high freight rates may continue, but the influx of new VLCC orders could create pressure on valuations starting in late 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector in A-shares has experienced significant volatility due to conflicts in the Middle East, impacting various shipping companies and their operations [3][9]. Group 1: Market Impact - On March 5, the shipping sector opened lower, with companies like China Merchants Energy (601975.SH) and Jinjiang Shipping (601083.SH) seeing declines, leading to a 2.77% drop in the China Securities Shipping Index by the end of the day [3]. - The ongoing conflict has led to the suspension of new bookings for several shipping routes to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait by China COSCO Shipping Group, indicating a direct impact on their operations [3][6]. - A shipping industry expert noted that all routes to the Middle East are currently suspended, with some vessels turning back, and the industry is in a wait-and-see mode regarding the resumption of services [4]. Group 2: Company Responses - China COSCO Shipping's subsidiaries reported that their operations remain normal, but the financial impact of the route suspensions is still uncertain [6][7]. - China Merchants Energy acknowledged the significant impact of the blockade on global energy transport but stated that their operations are currently unaffected [6]. - Other companies like China Merchants Jinling and Shenghang Co. indicated that their operations are stable, with limited direct exposure to the Middle East routes, although they are monitoring the situation closely [8]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The shipping sector has seen dramatic fluctuations, with the container shipping index experiencing a surge followed by a sharp decline due to geopolitical tensions [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in shipping prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical events and seasonal demand patterns, with the potential for continued price increases if the conflict persists [11][12]. - The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market is expected to see strong demand and high freight rates due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, with projections indicating that 2026 freight rates will be significantly higher than in 2025 [12].