Global Economic Outlook - The economic momentum in the US and non-US regions is expected to converge, primarily driven by a slowdown in the US economy [2][3] - Non-US regions benefit from a more accommodative monetary policy environment, with GDP output gaps still not positive according to IMF estimates [2][3] - The European market is viewed positively due to the convergence of economic growth momentum with the US, despite facing uncertainties [3][12] Industry Preferences - Analyst preferences for industries in the second half of the year are ranked as follows: Technology (Telecom, Software, Advertising > Electronics > Content), Industrial (Power Equipment > Automation), and Financials [1][2] - Caution is advised for consumer and consumer-related manufacturing sectors (home appliances, automobiles) and bulk raw materials [1] European Market Insights - The European market is expected to perform relatively well, supported by fiscal policy and defense spending, which may boost investor and consumer confidence [3][12] - The impact of tariffs on the European GDP is estimated to be a direct effect of 0.2% to 0.4%, with indirect effects around 0.2% [12][13] - The labor market remains strong, and energy prices are declining, providing additional support for the European economy [13] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets show marginal upward potential, but overall absolute performance may be limited, requiring regional selection [4][22] - Factors favoring emerging markets include continued policy rate declines and the worst trade news potentially being priced in [4][22] - Challenges include limited improvement in risk appetite due to policy uncertainties and high US Treasury yields [4] Japan's Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is expected to experience moderate recovery in the second half of 2025, with inflation remaining high [15][16] - The Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates in response to economic conditions, with a potential increase to 0.75% [15][17] - Japanese stocks are likely to be influenced by global market trends, particularly the US market [18] Southeast Asia Economic Trends - Southeast Asian economies are projected to experience growth, with GDP growth rates for countries like Vietnam and the Philippines expected at 6.5% and 5.3% respectively [22] - The region may face pressures from inventory cycles and trade negotiations, impacting growth in the latter half of the year [22][23] - Local currencies are showing signs of recovery against the US dollar, with notable increases in the Singapore dollar and Philippine peso [23] Industrial Sector Insights - The industrial sector is expected to benefit from energy transition, infrastructure projects, and data center investments, despite a slowdown in capital expenditure growth [52][54] - The automation sector is nearing the end of inventory destocking, with a positive outlook for recovery [54] - Power equipment demand is anticipated to remain strong, with limited tariff impacts due to localized production strategies [56][58] Consumer Goods and Automotive Sector - The consumer goods sector is facing challenges from tariffs, but large appliances are less affected due to domestic production [63][64] - The automotive market is still grappling with tariff uncertainties, but the overall impact is expected to diminish [66][68] - Electric vehicle sales may be impacted by the potential removal of tax credits in the US, while European automakers are negotiating to alleviate tariff pressures [68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the media sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The media sector has shown a positive trend, with a 2.52% increase from June 3 to June 6, 2025, driven by the gaming sector and AI themes [10][12]. - The report highlights optimism for AI applications, IP monetization, and mergers and acquisitions in the media sector by 2025 [10][16]. - Key areas of focus include new AI applications, companies with IP advantages, and state-owned enterprises due to increased funding and market value assessments [10][16]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Market Overview - The media sector's performance is noted with a 2.52% increase, outperforming other sectors such as telecommunications and non-ferrous metals [10][12]. - The top five gainers in the media sector include Gehua Cable (16.4%), Hubei Broadcasting (15.5%), and Shengxun Technology (13.6%) [12][14]. 1.2 Sub-sector Insights - Resource integration expectations are focused on companies like China Vision Media and Guangxi Broadcasting [16]. - AI-related companies to watch include Rongxin Culture and Aofei Entertainment [16]. - In gaming, strong performers include Shenzhou Taiyue and Kainet Network [16]. - State-owned enterprises of interest include Ciweng Media and Anhui Xinhua Media [16]. - In the education sector, Xueda Education is highlighted [16]. - Key Hong Kong stocks include Alibaba and Tencent, with a focus on New Oriental in the K12 education sector [16]. 2. Key Events Review - Google released the Gemini 2.5 Pro model, showcasing superior capabilities in mathematics, programming, and reasoning, achieving a 24-point increase in Elo score [18]. - Luma AI introduced the Modify Video feature, enhancing video creation flexibility, which has gained significant attention on social media [18]. 3. Sub-sector Data Tracking - The domestic film market's total box office from May 31 to June 6, 2025, reached approximately 515 million yuan, with "Mission: Impossible 8" leading at 218 million yuan [20][22]. - The top-rated series during the same period included "Cang Hai Chuan" and "Zhe Yao" [23][24].

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting external risks and the need for new momentum for upward movement [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology and consumer sectors, suggesting a defensive allocation in high-dividend stocks due to ongoing overseas risks [2][3] - The report lists a selection of "golden stocks" with detailed financial metrics, including Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and others, indicating their potential for growth and investment value [3][72] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings is recognized for its strong competitive advantages across multiple business areas, particularly in gaming and advertising, with expectations for EPS growth driven by high-margin business expansion [11][12] - Alibaba is noted for its leadership in AI and cloud computing, with anticipated revenue growth from its cloud services and improved profitability from its core business segments [19][20] - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from its AI capabilities and content consumption trends, with projections for significant revenue growth in the coming years [24][25] - Xiaomi is highlighted for its innovative automotive business and strong performance in the smartphone market, with expectations for continued growth in high-end products [30][31] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is expected to see improved performance due to lower international oil prices and a high dividend payout ratio, making it attractive for income-focused investors [43][44] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings is positioned for growth in the online investment sector, leveraging technology to enhance its product offerings and market share [51][52] - Anta Sports is recognized for its strong brand performance and strategic acquisitions, which are expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [56][57] - New Energy is anticipated to benefit from privatization efforts and improved profit structures, with a significant valuation upside [60][61] - Innovent Biologics is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth driven by its expanding product pipeline and effective cost management [66][67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the media industry [5][40]. Core Views - The media sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.73% increase, outperforming both the CSI 300 (-1.08%) and the ChiNext Index (-1.40%) during the week of May 24 to May 30 [12][14]. - Key developments include the formalization of the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong and the release of DeepSeek-R1-0528, which has significantly improved in code generation speed and inference accuracy [2][17][18]. - The report emphasizes a short-term upward trend in performance and a long-term positive outlook on AI applications and IP-driven products [4][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media industry rose by 1.73%, ranking 5th among all sectors in terms of performance [12][14]. - Notable gainers included Yuanlong Yatu, Times Publishing, Youzu Network, and ST Fanli, while Kunlun Wanwei, Shengtong Shares, Yinsai Group, and Meiri Interactive faced declines [12][13]. Key Developments - The "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong aims to promote financial innovation while maintaining stability in the financial sector [17]. - DeepSeek-R1-0528 has been released and open-sourced, showing performance comparable to leading models like OpenAI's o3 [18]. - Perplexity AI launched Perplexity Labs, which can complete complex tasks in about 10 minutes, enhancing productivity for knowledge workers [2][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gaming, advertising media, and film sectors, with specific stock recommendations including Kaiying Network, Giant Network, and Yaoji Technology [4][36]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in AI applications and IP-driven products, recommending companies like Pop Mart and Zhejiang Wenlian [4][36]. Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies such as Kaiying Network, Fenzhong Media, and Mango Super Media are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [5][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet sector [5][40]. Core Viewpoints - The media sector has shown an upward trend with a 1.39% increase, although it underperformed compared to the CSI 300 (2.00%) and the ChiNext Index (3.27%) [12][14]. - Key companies such as ByteDance, Meta, and Tencent are making significant advancements in AI applications, which are expected to drive future growth in the sector [2][4][37]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the film industry, driven by the upcoming holiday seasons and improved supply [38]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector's performance for the week (May 3 - May 9) was an increase of 1.39%, ranking 22nd among all sectors [12][14]. - Notable gainers included Baotong Technology (+25%), ST Zhongqingbao (+10%), and ST Huawen (+9%), while ST Tianze (-9%) and Wanda Film (-5%) were among the biggest losers [12][13]. Key Company Developments - ByteDance has open-sourced its deep research framework, DeerFlow, integrating language models with various tools for automated research and content creation [2][17]. - Meta's AI research team has released five significant breakthroughs in AI perception, marking a major advancement in the field [2][18]. - Tencent has optimized its DeepSeek communication framework, achieving performance improvements of 100% in RoCE network environments and 30% in IB network environments [2][19]. Box Office and Content Performance - The box office for the week (May 5 - May 11) reached 332 million yuan, with "Nezha: The Devil's Child" leading at 90 million yuan (27.2% market share) [3][21]. - Upcoming holiday seasons are expected to boost box office performance, with a focus on the Dragon Boat Festival and summer releases [4][38]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for AI applications and IP trends, recommending companies like Pop Mart and others in the IP and gaming sectors [4][38]. - It emphasizes the importance of the film industry recovery, recommending channels like Wanda Film and content producers like Light Media [4][38]. - The report also highlights the potential for advertising growth as the economy improves, suggesting investments in companies like Focus Media and Mango TV [4][38].

Electronic Sector - TSMC's April revenue exceeded expectations, reaching NT$349.6 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 22.2% and a year-on-year growth of 48.1%, marking a historical monthly high [1] - Cumulative revenue for January to April was NT$1,188.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.5%, also a record for the same period [1] - The growth is driven by AI demand and preemptive stocking by clients concerned about tariff impacts [1] - The electronic sector's Q1 2025 revenue was NT$839.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with net profit of NT$35.5 billion, up 31.2% [1] - The semiconductor materials sector showed strong performance, benefiting from increased wafer fab utilization and accelerated domestic substitution [1] Communication Sector - Leading optical module companies reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue and profit both achieving high growth [2] - The market demand for optical modules is expected to further release due to positive signals from policy and ongoing high capital expenditures from cloud vendors [2] - Major cloud companies' capital expenditures increased significantly, with Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon's spending rising 69% to US$70.6 billion [2] Computer Sector - Google DeepMind released an updated version of Gemini 2.5 Pro, enhancing programming capabilities, allowing users to generate complete web applications and games from a single prompt [3] - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity, with strong growth in sectors like intelligent driving and software outsourcing [3] - The impact of tariff policies on computer companies' fundamentals is minimal, with domestic substitution and self-control sectors likely to benefit [3] Media and Internet Sector - Continuous tracking of AI application landing situations is recommended, with a focus on companies with upward marginal fundamentals and M&A themes [4] - The digital media sector has shown strong performance recently, while the film and television sector is expected to decline due to the off-season [4] - Companies like Tencent and Kuaishou are advancing in AI-generated content, indicating a growing potential for AI applications in media [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The media sector has shown resilience with a 1.39% increase in the index from May 6 to May 9, 2025, driven by market momentum. The report highlights optimism towards AI applications, IP monetization, and mergers and acquisitions as key growth areas for 2025 [1][8]. - AI applications are expected to focus on new investment mappings and data tracking for mature applications, particularly in the multimodal industry direction. Companies with IP advantages and full industry chain potential are seen as having monetization opportunities, especially in trendy toys and film content [1][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of state-owned enterprises in the media sector, particularly in light of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's focus on market capitalization assessments for state-owned enterprises [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The media sector index increased by 1.39% during the week of May 6-9, 2025, with the top-performing sectors being defense and military (6.44%), communication (5.43%), and banking (3.98%) [8][10]. - The report identifies the top five gainers in the media sector: Baotong Technology (24.7%), Huicheng Technology (16.2%), Shengxunda (12.2%), Zhongqingbao (10.4%), and Huawen Group (9.3%) [11]. Subsector Insights - Key focus areas include resource integration expectations with companies like Zhongshi Media, Guoxin Culture, and Guangxi Broadcasting. AI-related companies such as Rongxin Culture and Aofei Entertainment are also highlighted [17]. - In the gaming sector, companies with strong certainty like Shenzhou Taiyue and Kaiying Network are recommended for attention, along with Perfect World and ST Huatuo [17]. - The report also notes significant interest in Hong Kong stocks, particularly Alibaba, Tencent, and Pop Mart, as well as educational leaders like New Oriental and regional leaders with strong earnings elasticity [17]. Key Events Review - Tencent launched the HunyuanCustom video model, which excels in character consistency and multimodal input, achieving industry-leading performance in various metrics [19]. - Lightricks introduced the LTX Video model, boasting 130 billion parameters and a 30-fold improvement in video generation quality compared to existing models, operable on consumer-grade GPUs [19]. Subsector Data Tracking - The report provides insights into the gaming market, highlighting popular upcoming games and their expected performance [20]. - The domestic film market's weekly box office reached approximately 508 million yuan, with top films including "Dumpling Queen" and "Hunting Gold Game" [21]. - The report tracks viewership for series and variety shows, noting the top-ranking series and their respective platforms [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The media sector has shown resilience with a 1.39% increase in the CITIC primary media index during the week of May 6-9, 2025. The report highlights optimism towards AI applications, IP monetization, and mergers and acquisitions as key growth drivers for 2025 [1][8]. - AI applications are expected to focus on new investment mappings and data tracking for mature applications, particularly in the multimodal industry direction. IP monetization will target companies with IP advantages and full industry chain potential, with opportunities in trendy toys and film content [1][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of state-owned enterprises in mergers and acquisitions, especially in light of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's focus on market capitalization assessments for state-owned enterprises [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The media sector's performance is buoyed by market trends, with a notable increase in stock prices for companies like Baotong Technology (up 24.7%) and Huicheng Technology (up 16.2%) during the reporting week [11][18]. - The report identifies the top five gainers and losers in the media sector, highlighting significant fluctuations in stock performance [11][14]. Subsector Insights - Key focus areas include resource integration expectations for companies like Zhongshi Media and Guoxin Culture, AI advancements in firms such as Rongxin Culture and Aofei Entertainment, and gaming companies with strong certainty like Shenzhou Taiyue and Kaixin Network [17]. - The report also highlights the importance of education and state-owned enterprises in the media landscape, with specific companies recommended for investment [17]. Key Events Review - Tencent's launch of the HunyuanCustom video model and Lightricks' release of the LTX Video model are significant advancements in AI video generation, showcasing improvements in efficiency and quality [19]. - The report notes the collaboration between Lightricks and major image platforms for data acquisition, indicating a strategic move towards enhancing AI capabilities [19]. Subsector Data Tracking - The report provides insights into the gaming sector, with popular titles currently available for pre-order, and highlights box office performance for films released during the week [20][21]. - It also tracks viewership data for popular series and variety shows, indicating trends in audience engagement [25][26].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20250508 5 月港股金股：关税阴霾渐退 2025 年 05 月 08 日 [观点Table_Tag] 3、港股反弹还需增量资金和政策刺激。当前增量资金主要以南向为主，香 港本地资金和海外资金还有增配空间。此外，尽管 5 月 2 日，美元兑港币 汇率触及 7.75 强方兑换保证，仍需继续观察外资流入情况。 ◼ 我们相对看好 AI 科技、内需，同时建议配置部分高股息用作防御： 1、看好 AI 科技：一是，美股科技业绩部分亮眼，一定程度上对全球科技 叙事有所提振；二是，业绩进入真空期，业绩干扰减少，利好主题行情， AI 科技东升仍是重点；三是，港交所和香港证监会推出"科企专线"，进 一步利好科创风偏。 2、考虑配置部分高股息：一是，整体海外风险还在，如果美股科技大跌可 能传导至港股科技；二是，二季度部分港股可能提前派息潮。为避免下半 年可能的在岸人民币压力，部分企业可能提前支付股息。三是，近期港币 流动性有宽松信号，若资金成本继续下降，进一步利好高股息。 3、内需消费仍是全年主线。4 月底政治局会议，明确表示要扩大消费，大 力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济拉 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that A-share revenue showed a decline in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while profit saw a slight recovery with a year-on-year decline of 4.87%. Non-financial sectors experienced a revenue decline of 0.38% but a profit increase of 6.02% [11][12][19] - The report highlights that the main contributors to profit in Q1 2025 were the metal materials and mining, agricultural products, and comprehensive finance sectors, while the banking, coal, real estate, and oil and gas sectors were significant detractors [12][30] - The report notes that the overall ROE for A-shares continued to decline in Q1 2025, with over half of the secondary industries having ROE levels below the historical 40th percentile [44][48] Group 2 - The report identifies that the sectors with the most significant upward adjustments in profit expectations post-Q1 2025 earnings announcements include comprehensive finance, insurance, and media internet, while most sectors saw downward adjustments [12][74] - The report states that the profit margin for A-shares in Q1 2025 was slightly down, with the overall margin at 17.63%, indicating that many industries remain at historical lows [51][54] - The report emphasizes that the agricultural products sector showed remarkable performance with a profit growth rate of 2051.8% in Q1 2025, significantly contributing to the overall profit recovery [29][36]