近日，在金价持续走强的带动下，配置资金正在加快通过ETF渠道布局黄金，黄金ETF规模再次快速扩张， 多只产品单日增量处于年内较高水平。 从规模增长结构看，申赎净流入与金价上涨带来的净值抬升贡献较为均衡，显示资金配置行为与行情变化同步 发力。机构人士分析称，在全球宏观环境不确定性上升、美债供给压力加大以及央行持续购金等因素的影响 下，黄金ETF作为低门槛、流动性较好的配置工具，正成为资金参与黄金行情的重要载体。 国际金价持续强势表现 国际金价延续此前强势表现，本周涨势已连续第三个交易日扩大。12月24日，现货黄金盘中首次站上每盎司 4500美元关口，COMEX黄金期货价格同步走高，一度升至4550美元上方，金价再度刷新阶段性高点。 华安基金从宏观政策周期出发，对黄金的中长期逻辑给出判断。其表示，展望后市，美联储仍处于降息大周 期，若鸽派主席当选，美联储降息节奏或更加激进。宽货币之外，美国也处于宽财政阶段，美债偿本付息压力 下的信用风险延续，全球央行持续购买黄金以分散外汇储备。在货币财政双宽松的趋势下，仍看好黄金中长期 配置价值。 在这一宏观判断之上，中邮证券将视角进一步落到具体的财政与市场节奏层面。中邮证券认为 ...

Global Market Outlook - The recovery in traditional cycle-related investments and consumption in non-US regions is expected to continue, although terminal consumption may recover slowly due to widening wealth disparities and increased uncertainty in economic, political, and employment prospects [2][6] - The Eurozone is maintaining its recovery, with domestic demand expected to replace net exports as the main contributor to economic growth in 2026 [10][11] - Southeast Asia is projected to outperform global growth, with Vietnam and Indonesia as key beneficiaries of industrial relocation and global supply chain diversification [2][17] Industry Outlook - Continued optimism in AI, electrification, and finance sectors, with high demand for overseas computing power expected to persist until the end of 2026 [3][9] - Capital expenditure in high-demand sectors like defense and AI infrastructure is anticipated to expand, while traditional cycle-related capital expenditure may recover at a slower pace due to terminal demand influences [8][9] - The consumer sector is expected to face challenges, with US consumption growth potentially cooling, while non-US regions may see marginal recovery [3][9] Regional Insights - In the Eurozone, private consumption is expected to grow, but high uncertainty may slow consumer confidence recovery [11][12] - Japan's economy is projected to grow above potential GDP, driven by expanding consumption and equipment investment [13][14] - Southeast Asia's average economic growth is forecasted at 4.2%, with specific countries like Vietnam and Indonesia leading in growth rates [17][18] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with reasonable valuations and positive catalysts, such as pharmaceuticals and automotive [9][10] - In Japan, attention is drawn to sectors benefiting from external economic improvements, particularly electronics, machinery, and automotive [15][61] - In Southeast Asia, the real estate sector is expected to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment, while industrial and logistics sectors may benefit from effective tariff rates [18][19] Technology and AI - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to remain robust, with significant capital expenditure growth anticipated in 2026 [27][28] - AI ASIC and GPU markets are projected to see substantial growth, driven by increased deployment by major cloud service providers [23][26] - Software and AI are expected to mutually enhance each other, with software playing a crucial role in AI application deployment [30][31] Consumer Goods - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a divergence in revenue growth, with leading companies likely to outperform smaller competitors [48][49] - The home care and personal care sectors may face short-term pressure due to slowing growth rates and cost challenges [50][51] - The luxury goods market is projected to recover in 2026, driven by consumer demand in key regions [52][54] Automotive Sector - Global passenger car sales are expected to see a slight increase, particularly in Europe due to new product cycles and improving labor markets [45][46] - European automakers are anticipated to accelerate their electric vehicle transitions, while US automakers stabilize after tariff impacts [46][47]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent strong upward trend in gold and silver prices, with London gold breaking through $4,300 and reaching a historical high of $4,380.79 per ounce, while London silver hit a record high of $54.429 [3][4] - The main trading narrative for the precious metals market has shifted from trade policy uncertainties to expectations of monetary and fiscal easing by the Federal Reserve, especially following the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][5] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs reached a record high in September, indicating a growing interest among investors to hedge against risks, despite overall positive market sentiment [4][5] Group 2 - The article highlights that the recent rally in precious metals began in late August, driven by multiple favorable events, including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [8][9] - The article notes that the silver market is experiencing structural tightness, with rental rates for silver surging above 30%, driven by increased investment demand and seasonal demand from India [4][10] - The analysis indicates that the current bull market for precious metals is likely to continue, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and the macroeconomic backdrop of persistent supply-demand imbalances [6][56] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the changing dynamics in the gold market, with new trading centers emerging in the Middle East and China, which are reshaping the traditional gold trading landscape [21][22] - It discusses the significant debt issues facing major economies, particularly the U.S., where federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential inflationary pressures [24][30] - The article also addresses the implications of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the potential impact of political pressures on its independence and the resulting effects on inflation and gold prices [35][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coexistence of the off - peak season during the supposed peak period and cost support is expected to lead to an oscillatory trend in the market. The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots showed a weak and oscillatory performance last week. Macroeconomic factors, cost, and inventory conditions will jointly affect the price trend of ADC12, with the price expected to oscillate. One - sided trading can consider lightly - weighted long positions on dips, and the existing arbitrage positions can be held with appropriate stop - profit settings [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. 1. Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers but Remains Low, Price Oscillates at High Levels - Last week (09/15 - 09/19), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated weakly. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 1.6% week - on - week to 20,325 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The price of waste aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the FOB price of Malaysian crushed primary aluminum increased by 33 US dollars to 2,233 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 113.3 yuan/ton to 20,226 yuan/ton, and the profit widened by 13.2 yuan/ton to 73.8 yuan/ton [12][13] - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly driven by the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.2. 2. Recent Industry News Review - In July 2025, the global primary aluminum supply was short of 11.99 tons, and from January to July 2025, the supply shortage was 98.53 tons [18] - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys expanded steadily, while recycled alloys were still below the boom - bust line [19] - In July 2025, China's waste aluminum imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, with Thailand and Japan being the major suppliers [19] - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, including rectifying illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [19][20] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [20] 3.3. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. 3.1 Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers, Price Remains High - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly due to the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.3.2. 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated weakly this week, with a 1.6% decline. The sales price of Baotai's ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 - A00 spread marginally narrowed. After entering the traditional peak season, the market performance was below expectations, and the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise. The production of standard warehouse receipts for cast aluminum alloy futures will start on September 22nd. The pre - holiday inventory - building demand is expected to provide short - term support for the spot price, and the trading activity of ADC12 in the trading segment increased this week due to the strengthening of the basis. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots continued to rise to 7.14 tons, and the factory - level inventory increased by 0.03 tons to 6.08 tons [16] 3.3.3. 3.3 Downstream: Peak - Season Expectations are Difficult to Fulfill - The high - frequency data of new - energy vehicles showed signs of weakening, and the peak - season expectations for the downstream industry are difficult to fulfill. The production and sales data of the automotive and motorcycle industries are presented in the report, reflecting the current situation of the downstream demand [2][60][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the casting aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly last week. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase from the previous week, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. With tight scrap aluminum supply and cost support, the sales price of alloy ingots is likely to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. For arbitrage, the previous long AD2511 and short AL2511 arbitrage orders can be held, but a reasonable stop - profit space should be set if the automobile market weakens [1][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival Continues to Decline for Weeks, Continuously Monitor Policies and Peak - Season Demand - Last week (09/08 - 09/12), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. The cost side provides strong support, and the profit has significantly narrowed [12] - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, rising 100 - 300 yuan. The prices of some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys increased significantly. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend. Under the peak - season expectation, the demand for raw materials by enterprises is increasing, and the upward trend of scrap aluminum is expected to continue [15] 2. Recent Industry News Review - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. The primary alloy expanded steadily, while the recycled alloy was still below the boom - bust line [18] - In July 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 160,500 tons, a 3.15% month - on - month increase and an 18.68% year - on - year increase. Thailand and Japan were the main suppliers [18] - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [18] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Arrival Continues to Decline, Price Remains High - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, with some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys rising significantly. The high price dampened the purchasing sentiment of some aluminum enterprises. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend, but the increase is weaker than that of primary aluminum [15] 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy futures trended strongly, with a 1.8% increase. The spot price of Baotai also rose significantly. It is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise, and most enterprises had insufficient short - term orders, weakening their pricing power [16] 3.3 Downstream: Weekly Sales of Various Automobile Brands are Weakening, Be Alert to the Risk of Unfulfilled Peak - Season Demand - The market still expects an improvement in demand, and enterprise orders are gradually recovering. However, the weekly sales data of various automobile brands show signs of weakening, and the automobile inventory warning index has increased month - on - month. There is a risk that the peak - season demand may not be fulfilled [2]