1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent stock market will continue to be driven by overseas factors. The market's confidence in credit currency has declined, and the belief in de - dollarization has deepened, leading to a re - evaluation of the commodity pricing anchor. However, due to the change in the Fed's stance, the re - evaluated precious metals have been re - evaluated in the opposite direction, which has a negative impact on the stock market. But domestic policies are expected to be positive, and there are still drivers for macro - economic repair and technological rise. The market may fall under external disturbances and then find support. Value stocks are expected to outperform growth stocks [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the stock market showed a volatile pattern, with small - cap style indexes performing weaker. Oil and petrochemicals, communications, and coal led the gains, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, and automobiles led the losses. The market was initially worried about large - fund policy regulation, and then the overall driving force was not obvious, mainly showing sector - based and structural theme markets. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy - chemical sectors were strong at the beginning of the week, and on Thursday, Kweichow Moutai's sharp rise drove the rebound of heavy - weight indexes. On Friday, with the sharp volatility of precious metals, related varieties adjusted significantly, suppressing risk appetite, and small - cap growth - style indexes fluctuated more significantly, while large - cap value indexes were relatively stable [1] - In the later stage, the market will be affected by overseas factors. The re - evaluation of the commodity pricing anchor and the change in the Fed's stance have a negative impact on the stock market. However, domestic policy expectations are positive, and the economic reality still has fluctuations, which supports the expectation of policy easing. The market may fall under external disturbances and then find support. Value stocks are expected to be stronger than growth stocks [2] - Factors to watch include local two - sessions and the Fed's policy direction [3] 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [4] - **Trend strategy**: Adopt an interval thinking. The core operating range of the IF2602 main contract is between 4592 and 4804 points; the IH2602 main contract is between 2991 and 3130 points; the IC2602 main contract is between 8042 and 8670 points; the IM2602 main contract is between 7993 and 8614 points [4] - **Cross - variety strategy**: Hold the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [5] 3.3 Spot Market Review - **Global stock indexes**: Last week, the Dow Jones Index fell 0.42%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.17% in the US stock market. In the European stock market, the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 0.79%, the German DAX Index fell 1.5%, and the French CAC40 Index fell 0.2%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.97%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.38% [9] - **Domestic stock indexes**: Since 2025, major domestic indexes have shown different degrees of increase. Last week, most major domestic indexes fell [11] - **Industry performance**: In the CSI 300 Index, energy, telecommunications, and materials sectors led the gains, while information, optional consumption, and industrial sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500 Index, energy, telecommunications, and raw material sectors led the gains, while information, optional consumption, and public utility sectors led the losses [12] 3.4 Futures Market Review - **Futures contract performance**: Last week, the IH main contract had the largest increase, and the IC main contract had the largest amplitude among the stock index futures main contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [15] - **Futures basis and cross - variety ratio**: The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio of stock index futures main contracts [15] 3.5 Index Valuation Tracking - As of January 23, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.13 times, the CSI 300 Index was 14.12 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.5 times, the CSI 500 Index was 37.53 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 50.31 times [16][18] 3.6 Market Capital Flow Review - The report shows the balance of margin trading in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the short - term capital interest rate, and the net investment of the central bank [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid expansion of gold ETFs driven by rising gold prices, with significant inflows and increased investor interest in gold as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - International gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with spot gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and COMEX futures reaching above $4550, marking a new high [3]. - Domestic gold prices have also increased, with Shanghai gold futures breaking the 1000 yuan per gram mark and retail prices for gold jewelry rising above 1400 yuan per gram [3]. Group 2: ETF Inflows and Growth - Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with the Huaan Gold ETF experiencing a daily growth of 25.98 billion yuan on December 22 and an additional 28.54 billion yuan on December 23, bringing its total assets under management close to 100 billion yuan [3]. - On December 23, multiple gold ETFs collectively increased by 51.73 billion yuan, indicating a strong trend in fund inflows [4]. Group 3: Macro Factors Supporting Gold - The article discusses macroeconomic factors such as rising uncertainty in the global environment, increased U.S. Treasury supply pressures, and ongoing central bank gold purchases, which contribute to the attractiveness of gold ETFs as a low-barrier, liquid investment tool [2][5]. - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and the potential for aggressive rate cuts under a dovish chairperson further support the long-term investment case for gold [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the peak supply of long-term U.S. Treasuries may occur in February, coinciding with a potential surge in demand for gold driven by rigid investment needs [6]. - The article emphasizes that the current narrative supporting gold prices is unlikely to see a reversal until at least 2026, suggesting a prolonged period of favorable conditions for gold investments [6].

Global Market Outlook - The recovery in traditional cycle-related investments and consumption in non-US regions is expected to continue, although terminal consumption may recover slowly due to widening wealth disparities and increased uncertainty in economic, political, and employment prospects [2][6] - The Eurozone is maintaining its recovery, with domestic demand expected to replace net exports as the main contributor to economic growth in 2026 [10][11] - Southeast Asia is projected to outperform global growth, with Vietnam and Indonesia as key beneficiaries of industrial relocation and global supply chain diversification [2][17] Industry Outlook - Continued optimism in AI, electrification, and finance sectors, with high demand for overseas computing power expected to persist until the end of 2026 [3][9] - Capital expenditure in high-demand sectors like defense and AI infrastructure is anticipated to expand, while traditional cycle-related capital expenditure may recover at a slower pace due to terminal demand influences [8][9] - The consumer sector is expected to face challenges, with US consumption growth potentially cooling, while non-US regions may see marginal recovery [3][9] Regional Insights - In the Eurozone, private consumption is expected to grow, but high uncertainty may slow consumer confidence recovery [11][12] - Japan's economy is projected to grow above potential GDP, driven by expanding consumption and equipment investment [13][14] - Southeast Asia's average economic growth is forecasted at 4.2%, with specific countries like Vietnam and Indonesia leading in growth rates [17][18] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with reasonable valuations and positive catalysts, such as pharmaceuticals and automotive [9][10] - In Japan, attention is drawn to sectors benefiting from external economic improvements, particularly electronics, machinery, and automotive [15][61] - In Southeast Asia, the real estate sector is expected to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment, while industrial and logistics sectors may benefit from effective tariff rates [18][19] Technology and AI - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to remain robust, with significant capital expenditure growth anticipated in 2026 [27][28] - AI ASIC and GPU markets are projected to see substantial growth, driven by increased deployment by major cloud service providers [23][26] - Software and AI are expected to mutually enhance each other, with software playing a crucial role in AI application deployment [30][31] Consumer Goods - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a divergence in revenue growth, with leading companies likely to outperform smaller competitors [48][49] - The home care and personal care sectors may face short-term pressure due to slowing growth rates and cost challenges [50][51] - The luxury goods market is projected to recover in 2026, driven by consumer demand in key regions [52][54] Automotive Sector - Global passenger car sales are expected to see a slight increase, particularly in Europe due to new product cycles and improving labor markets [45][46] - European automakers are anticipated to accelerate their electric vehicle transitions, while US automakers stabilize after tariff impacts [46][47]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent strong upward trend in gold and silver prices, with London gold breaking through $4,300 and reaching a historical high of $4,380.79 per ounce, while London silver hit a record high of $54.429 [3][4] - The main trading narrative for the precious metals market has shifted from trade policy uncertainties to expectations of monetary and fiscal easing by the Federal Reserve, especially following the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][5] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs reached a record high in September, indicating a growing interest among investors to hedge against risks, despite overall positive market sentiment [4][5] Group 2 - The article highlights that the recent rally in precious metals began in late August, driven by multiple favorable events, including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [8][9] - The article notes that the silver market is experiencing structural tightness, with rental rates for silver surging above 30%, driven by increased investment demand and seasonal demand from India [4][10] - The analysis indicates that the current bull market for precious metals is likely to continue, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and the macroeconomic backdrop of persistent supply-demand imbalances [6][56] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the changing dynamics in the gold market, with new trading centers emerging in the Middle East and China, which are reshaping the traditional gold trading landscape [21][22] - It discusses the significant debt issues facing major economies, particularly the U.S., where federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential inflationary pressures [24][30] - The article also addresses the implications of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the potential impact of political pressures on its independence and the resulting effects on inflation and gold prices [35][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coexistence of the off - peak season during the supposed peak period and cost support is expected to lead to an oscillatory trend in the market. The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots showed a weak and oscillatory performance last week. Macroeconomic factors, cost, and inventory conditions will jointly affect the price trend of ADC12, with the price expected to oscillate. One - sided trading can consider lightly - weighted long positions on dips, and the existing arbitrage positions can be held with appropriate stop - profit settings [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. 1. Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers but Remains Low, Price Oscillates at High Levels - Last week (09/15 - 09/19), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated weakly. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 1.6% week - on - week to 20,325 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The price of waste aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the FOB price of Malaysian crushed primary aluminum increased by 33 US dollars to 2,233 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 113.3 yuan/ton to 20,226 yuan/ton, and the profit widened by 13.2 yuan/ton to 73.8 yuan/ton [12][13] - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly driven by the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.2. 2. Recent Industry News Review - In July 2025, the global primary aluminum supply was short of 11.99 tons, and from January to July 2025, the supply shortage was 98.53 tons [18] - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys expanded steadily, while recycled alloys were still below the boom - bust line [19] - In July 2025, China's waste aluminum imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, with Thailand and Japan being the major suppliers [19] - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, including rectifying illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [19][20] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [20] 3.3. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. 3.1 Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers, Price Remains High - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly due to the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.3.2. 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated weakly this week, with a 1.6% decline. The sales price of Baotai's ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 - A00 spread marginally narrowed. After entering the traditional peak season, the market performance was below expectations, and the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise. The production of standard warehouse receipts for cast aluminum alloy futures will start on September 22nd. The pre - holiday inventory - building demand is expected to provide short - term support for the spot price, and the trading activity of ADC12 in the trading segment increased this week due to the strengthening of the basis. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots continued to rise to 7.14 tons, and the factory - level inventory increased by 0.03 tons to 6.08 tons [16] 3.3.3. 3.3 Downstream: Peak - Season Expectations are Difficult to Fulfill - The high - frequency data of new - energy vehicles showed signs of weakening, and the peak - season expectations for the downstream industry are difficult to fulfill. The production and sales data of the automotive and motorcycle industries are presented in the report, reflecting the current situation of the downstream demand [2][60][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the casting aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly last week. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase from the previous week, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. With tight scrap aluminum supply and cost support, the sales price of alloy ingots is likely to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. For arbitrage, the previous long AD2511 and short AL2511 arbitrage orders can be held, but a reasonable stop - profit space should be set if the automobile market weakens [1][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival Continues to Decline for Weeks, Continuously Monitor Policies and Peak - Season Demand - Last week (09/08 - 09/12), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. The cost side provides strong support, and the profit has significantly narrowed [12] - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, rising 100 - 300 yuan. The prices of some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys increased significantly. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend. Under the peak - season expectation, the demand for raw materials by enterprises is increasing, and the upward trend of scrap aluminum is expected to continue [15] 2. Recent Industry News Review - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. The primary alloy expanded steadily, while the recycled alloy was still below the boom - bust line [18] - In July 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 160,500 tons, a 3.15% month - on - month increase and an 18.68% year - on - year increase. Thailand and Japan were the main suppliers [18] - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [18] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Arrival Continues to Decline, Price Remains High - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, with some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys rising significantly. The high price dampened the purchasing sentiment of some aluminum enterprises. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend, but the increase is weaker than that of primary aluminum [15] 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy futures trended strongly, with a 1.8% increase. The spot price of Baotai also rose significantly. It is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise, and most enterprises had insufficient short - term orders, weakening their pricing power [16] 3.3 Downstream: Weekly Sales of Various Automobile Brands are Weakening, Be Alert to the Risk of Unfulfilled Peak - Season Demand - The market still expects an improvement in demand, and enterprise orders are gradually recovering. However, the weekly sales data of various automobile brands show signs of weakening, and the automobile inventory warning index has increased month - on - month. There is a risk that the peak - season demand may not be fulfilled [2]