Core Insights - The concept of "basis" has become a key term in the cotton industry, reflecting a shift in pricing logic for cotton and cotton yarn products, with futures markets increasingly serving the real economy [1][2][3] - The introduction of cotton futures and related options has established a comprehensive set of risk management tools for the trillion-yuan industry, enhancing the industry's risk management capabilities and operational stability [1][6] Pricing Mechanism Changes - The pricing model for cotton has evolved from fixed prices to a basis-based pricing model, which is now mainstream in the industry [1][3] - Cotton futures have demonstrated their price discovery function, with industry participants increasingly recognizing their value, especially during market fluctuations [2][3] Industry Participation and Risk Management - The participation of industry investors in the cotton futures market has significantly increased over the past decade, with nearly 95% of stakeholders in the cotton supply chain utilizing futures prices as a reference point for transactions [3][5] - Companies like Zhongmian Group have developed sophisticated strategies for risk management, integrating procurement, processing, and sales through basis point pricing [4][5] Evolution of Derivative Tools - The rapid evolution of derivative tools from traditional fixed pricing to basis trading and rights-inclusive trading has transformed the risk management landscape for cotton and textile enterprises [5][6] - The presence of specialized risk management subsidiaries has enabled smaller companies to effectively manage risks through innovative financing and hedging strategies [5][6] Overall Industry Impact - The enhanced application of derivative tools has led to significant changes in pricing, trading, and processing logic within the domestic cotton industry, improving its overall competitiveness [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the cotton market indicates a slight fluctuation in cotton futures prices, with the current price at 66.68 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.09% increase from the opening price [1] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report shows that the good-to-excellent rate for U.S. cotton remains at 55%, unchanged from the previous week, while the current blooming rate is at 87%, up from 80% the previous week [3] - Pakistan's cotton production has decreased by 30% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to a 47% drop in production from the Sindh province [3] Group 2 - The average import price of cotton at the port (M index) is reported at 73.94 cents per pound, down by 0.86 cents from August 1, with the import cost under a 1% tariff at 12,836 yuan per ton [3] - The domestic average price for 3128 cotton (B index) is 15,168 yuan per ton, which has decreased by 53 yuan per ton since August 1 [3] - The price for Xinjiang cotton delivered to Shandong is 15,260 yuan per ton, down by 50 yuan per ton from August 1 [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) futures continued to decline, with the main 2509 contract falling 1.07% to 13,925 yuan/ton, breaking below the 14,000 yuan mark. The lack of strong support for Zhengmian prices is due to weak procurement willingness from downstream enterprises. The ICE cotton rose 0.1% overnight, closing at 68.3 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, China-US economic and trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the US Treasury's borrowing expectation in the third quarter has exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase. After the debt ceiling was raised, debt issuance accelerated. The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. The impact of the raised US debt ceiling on the second-half interest rate cuts is worth monitoring. The China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on July 28 are important for normalizing bilateral relations in the second half and bring some imagination space to the market. Globally, due to factors such as continuous loose cotton supply and demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the de-stocking trend of commercial cotton inventories is positive, the inventory level remains high. There is a high possibility of a bumper new cotton harvest this year, and combined with the weak demand, the upside space for Zhengmian is limited [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell 1.07%, closing at 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price continued to decline and broke below the 14,000 yuan mark. The ICE cotton rose 0.1% overnight, closing at 68.3 cents/pound. Downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness, and Zhengmian prices lack strong support. Future attention should be paid to external market trends, China-US economic and trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,504 (-72) sheets, including 9,156 (-70) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (-2) valid forecasts [3]. - From July 21 - 25, 2025, the weekly average price of domestic 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 20,890 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 174 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of Indian 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 20,956 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 108 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of Vietnamese 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 20,702 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 86 yuan/ton [5]. - As of the week ending July 27, the budding rate of US cotton was 80% (compared to 86% last year and a five-year average of 83%, and 71% the previous week), the bolling rate was 44% (33% the previous week, 52% last year, and a five-year average of 46%), and the good-to-excellent rate was 55% (49% last year) [5]. - Brazil exported 111,700 tons of cotton in the first four weeks of July, with a daily average export volume of 5,900 tons, a 19% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 7,300 tons in July last year. The total export volume in July last year was 167,200 tons [5]. - Last week, Xinjiang cotton was in the peak flowering and bolling stage, with some areas in Turpan already in the boll-opening and lint-releasing stage. High temperatures and low precipitation in most parts of the region were unfavorable for cotton growth. The development period of cotton was advanced due to high temperatures, increasing the proportion of pre-dog days peaches and raising the risk of premature aging [5]. - Recently, there was light rainfall in some cotton-growing areas in Argentina, with the most concentrated area receiving 45mm of rainfall, slowing down the new cotton picking progress. In the short term, the weather in the cotton-growing areas is expected to clear up, with rising temperatures promoting the resumption of picking operations. As of mid-July, the new cotton harvest progress in Argentina was 75%, 15 percentage points slower than the same period last year, and the total output may be between 250,000 - 270,000 tons [6]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts of CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spreads, textile profits, cotton import profits,棉纱 import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non-commercial positions [6][7][10][11]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Treasury's borrowing expectation in the third quarter has exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase. After the debt ceiling was raised, debt issuance accelerated. The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. The impact of the raised US debt ceiling on the second-half interest rate cuts is worth monitoring. The China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on July 28 are important for normalizing bilateral relations in the second half and bring some imagination space to the market [13]. - Globally, due to factors such as continuous loose cotton supply and demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the de-stocking trend of commercial cotton inventories is positive, the inventory level remains high. There is a high possibility of a bumper new cotton harvest this year, and combined with the weak demand, the upside space for Zhengmian is limited [13].

Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) futures showed a slight decline and maintained a volatile trend. The ICE cotton futures also dropped slightly overnight. The subsequent focus should be on the external market trends, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - The global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. In the short - term, Zhengmian may have some upward space, but high - level risks should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the room for cotton price increase is limited due to the high inventory and the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad [14]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - The main contract of Zhengmian 2509 fell 0.67%, closing at 14,075 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The ICE cotton futures dropped 0.74% overnight, closing at 68.23 cents/pound [2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,576 (-57) sheets, including 9,226 (-39) registered warehouse receipts and 350 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - The China Cotton Textile Prosperity Index rebounded above the boom - bust line in June, reaching 50.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from May. Among the 7 sub - indices, the raw material procurement, raw material inventory, production, and enterprise operation indices were above the critical point, the product sales and product inventory indices were below the critical point, and the enterprise confidence index was at the critical point [3][4]. - As of the week ending July 22, the long positions of non - commercial funds in CFTC US cotton futures were 64,278 (+344) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week; the short positions were 91,528 (+2,511) sheets, changing from a decrease to an increase. The total ICE positions were 218,828 (+7,061) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 12.5%, down 0.6 percentage points month - on - month and up 2.8 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, as of July 24, the cumulative picked, delivered, and processed lint cotton were all 6.676 million tons, with year - on - year increases of 773,000 tons and increases of 583,000 tons compared to the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.194 million tons and an increase of 1.03 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [5]. - On July 25, 2025, the estimated arrival volume of Indian cotton was 11,100 bales (170 kg per bale), or 1,887 tons. Since the 2024/25 season (October to September of the following year), the cumulative arrival volume of Indian cotton was 29,938,100 bales, or 5,089,477 tons [5]. 3. Data Charts - The reports include charts of CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [7][8][11]. 4. Analysis and Strategy - The US tariff policy will continue to affect the global economy. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose expectation. Zhengmian lacks a clear driving force and maintains a volatile trend. In the short - term, there may be some upward space, but high - level risks should be noted. In the medium - to - long - term, the high inventory and loose supply - demand pattern limit the upward space of cotton prices [14].

Group 1: Core Insights - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo showcased the health industry with a focus on medical health, quality of life, and Chinese premium products, highlighting cutting-edge products and technologies in the health sector [1] - The expo emphasized the integration of digital and biological technologies, presenting a comprehensive health service chain from birth to elderly care [1] Group 2: Company Highlights - L'Oréal, as the only foreign exhibitor in the beauty industry, presented its consumer-centric smart supply chain and global opportunity connections, aiming to foster collaboration and innovation within the industry [2] - Medtronic showcased its five pillars of innovation in the medical field, including local manufacturing and global integration, with a focus on the "Lantern Left Bundle Branch Pacing" heart catheter as a key innovation [2] - Starbucks highlighted its sustainable supply chain network in the coffee industry, collaborating with a leading energy systems company to set a green development benchmark [3] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - Sanofi demonstrated its end-to-end healthcare ecosystem in China, celebrating 30 years of local manufacturing and showcasing the entire process of flu vaccine production and distribution [4] - Strong interest was noted at the booth of the Wellbeing Group, which focused on innovations in the cotton industry and aimed to connect various stakeholders to promote a healthy cotton industry [4][5] - GE Healthcare emphasized its role in enhancing the resilience of China's high-end medical device supply chain through extensive collaboration with over a thousand suppliers [5] Group 4: Industry Trends - The expo highlighted a deep consensus among upstream and downstream enterprises on collaborative development within the health industry [4] - The concept of a "win-win chain" was reiterated by multiple industry leaders, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and co-creation for a sustainable health future [5]

Group 1 - The report from Itaú BBA predicts a 5% decrease in sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region for the 2025/26 season, amounting to 590 million tons, with significant declines in the western and northwestern parts of São Paulo state [1] - Despite the decrease in crushing volume, sugar production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 41.2 million tons, with a sugar-to-cane ratio of 52% and an ATR (Total Recoverable Sugar) of 141 kg/ton [1] - Current spot prices for sugar in China show an increase, with Guangxi Sugar Group reporting prices between 6000 - 6080 yuan/ton, up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5790 - 5830 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is experiencing upward movement, with ICE cotton prices rising by 0.78% to 68.32 cents per pound, and domestic cotton prices in Xinjiang increasing by 65 yuan/ton to 14832 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% for two consecutive days, and cotton prices in Zhengzhou breaking through 13600 yuan/ton due to low commercial inventories and weather disturbances in Xinjiang [1] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a slight strengthening of cotton prices, although the fundamental drivers remain limited [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The Malaysian palm oil market is under downward pressure due to the sharp decline in crude oil and the recovery of production. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market is expected to fall further to the range of 8,150 - 8,250 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: International soybean oil prices are under pressure due to the expected decline in Indian imports and favorable crop weather in the US. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the factory sell - pressure is not strong, and the basis quote is supported [1]. Meal Industry - The bullish sentiment of US soybeans has been fully traded. With the improvement of weather expectations and the decline in oil prices, the market is weak. Domestic soybean inventory pressure is acceptable, and soybean meal inventory is still low. The short - term disk may follow the US soybeans to correct, but the decline is expected to be limited [3]. Corn Industry - The current corn supply varies with traders' strategies. In the short term, corn prices may correct due to increased arrivals and auction expectations, but in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand gap supports an upward trend. It is advisable to go long on dips [5]. Pig Industry - The current pig breeding still has profits, but the market is cautious about capacity expansion. The short - term disk may be strong, but there is a risk of a decline in the 09 contract near delivery if the live inventory continues to be postponed [9][10]. Cotton Industry - The market driving force is still weak, with the downstream textile industry's开机 rate decreasing and finished product inventory increasing. However, the supply - side basis of old crops is still relatively strong. The short - term domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. Sugar Industry - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. If there are no new negative factors, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. This week, it is expected to maintain bottom - range fluctuations between 5,650 - 5,800 [15]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is still sufficient. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, and may experience a slight decline later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On June 24, the futures price of Y2509 was 7,606 yuan, down 1.60% from the previous day. The basis was 654 yuan, down 26 yuan. The inventory of factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend, and the estimated soybean arrival in July is about 11 million tons [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On June 24, the futures price of P2509 was 8,208 yuan, down 2.05%. The basis was 282 yuan, down 138 yuan. The import cost in Guangzhou Port in September was 8,737.7 yuan, down 1.80% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On June 24, the futures price of OI2509 was 9,310 yuan, down 1.55%. The basis was 470 yuan, up 7 yuan [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On June 24, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The futures price of M2509 was 3,037 yuan, down 0.98%. The basis was - 117 yuan, up 10 yuan [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,550 yuan, down 1.20%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,657 yuan, down 0.82%. The basis was - 107 yuan, down 9 yuan [3]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 24, the futures price of Corn 2509 was 2,389 yuan, down 0.79%. The basis was - 9 yuan, up 19 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 108 yuan, down 9 yuan [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2509 was 2,744 yuan, down 1.51%. The basis was - 24 yuan, up 42 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan, down 24 yuan [5]. Pig Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the price of the main contract was 13,550 yuan for the 2507 contract, up 0.74%, and 13,940 yuan for the 2509 contract, down 0.29%. The 7 - 9 spread was 390 yuan, down 140 yuan [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 14,550 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 14,900 yuan, up 100 yuan [9]. Cotton Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the futures price of Cotton 2509 was 13,610 yuan, up 1.08%; the 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan, up 0.63%. The 9 - 1 spread was 25 yuan, up 60 yuan [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,767 yuan, down 0.09%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,883 yuan, down 0.07% [13]. Sugar Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the futures price of Sugar 2509 was 5,710 yuan, down 0.19%; the 2601 contract was 5,555 yuan, down 0.36%. The 1 - 9 spread was - 155 yuan, down 9 yuan [15]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,040 yuan, down 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5,860 yuan, down 0.09% [15]. Egg Industry - **Futures**: On June 24, the price of the Egg 09 contract was 3,642 yuan, up 0.33%; the 07 contract was 2,819 yuan, down 1.33%. The 9 - 7 spread was 823 yuan, up 50 yuan [17]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.92 yuan per catty, down 0.24% [17].

申万宏源研究所宏观高级分析师贾东旭从全球经济格局、国内政策导向及大宗商品市场走势三个维度，深入剖析了2025年棉花产业面临的宏观环境，建议企 业关注政策红利，灵活运用金融工具对冲风险。中国棉花信息网总经理张曼结合最新市场数据，分析了2024、2025年度棉花供需格局与价格走势；演讲嘉宾 张静分享了2025年新疆棉花种植的实地调研成果；申万宏源证券FICC事业部客盘业务团队高级产品经理张泰立通过案例分析，展示了棉花期货、期权及"保 险+期货"模式如何帮助企业锁定利润、降低采购成本。他特别指出："2024年新疆棉企通过场外期权工具，平均降低了风险敞口，金融工具的应用已成为产 业升级的关键推手。" 宏源期货新疆分公司负责人在闭幕总结中表示："未来，我们将持续发挥期货市场功能，为新疆棉花产业提供精准的风险管理服务，助力'稳企安农 护航实 体'目标实现。" 期货日报网讯（记者 谭亚敏）近日，新疆证券期货业协会携手宏源期货在乌鲁木齐举办"稳企安农 护航实体"——新疆棉花产业风险管理交流会，本次会议 汇聚了行业专家及棉花产业链企业代表，共同探讨2025年棉花产业面临的机遇与挑战，分享风险管理最新实践，助力新疆棉花产业高质量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Sustainable Cotton" project in China aims to enhance cotton production quality while reducing environmental impact through scientific farming methods and technology [1][2]. Group 1: Sustainable Cotton Development - The "Sustainable Cotton" initiative, launched by the China Cotton Association, focuses on reducing pesticide and fertilizer use without compromising yield, thereby minimizing environmental pollution [1]. - The project has certified 1.2 million acres of cotton fields in Xinjiang, producing 430,000 tons of sustainable cotton, promoting high-quality, eco-friendly cotton products for consumers [1]. Group 2: Industry Performance and Projections - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's cotton industry has maintained stable production and consumption levels, with cotton output and consumption around 6 million tons and 8 million tons, respectively, employing nearly 17 million people [2]. - The projected cotton planting area for 2025 is 44.82 million acres, reflecting a 1.8% year-on-year increase, with Xinjiang's area expected to grow by 3.3% [2]. Group 3: Quality and Innovation - Industry experts emphasize the need for structural optimization and technological innovation to transition from traditional advantages to high-quality development, enhancing cotton production and processing quality [2]. - The cotton quality in China is considered above average globally, but further upgrades in technology and management are necessary to meet high-quality textile demands [2][3]. Group 4: Green Transformation - The cotton industry is urged to pursue a green low-carbon transformation, reducing resource consumption and emissions while increasing the industry's "green content" [3]. - The 2025 China International Cotton Conference, themed "Promoting Sustainable Cotton, Discussing New Consumption Future," highlights the industry's commitment to green development [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "Stable Enterprises, Secure Agriculture" conference focused on risk management in the cotton industry, highlighting the importance of financial tools in supporting the high-quality development of the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference was co-hosted by Xinjiang Guannong Co., Ltd. and Huatai Futures, bringing together representatives from the cotton industry and financial experts to discuss market conditions and risk management strategies [1][2]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) reported that the cotton futures market has seen significant liquidity and participation, with a long-term open interest of around 4 million tons [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Guannong Co. emphasized its role as a key player in agricultural industrialization, actively promoting market participation among cotton enterprises to enhance their risk management capabilities [2]. - Huatai Futures expressed its commitment to providing integrated financial solutions for the cotton industry, aiming to build a collaborative ecosystem for industry and finance [2]. Group 3: Expert Contributions - Industry experts provided insights on market trends, with Huatai Futures analysts discussing macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics affecting cotton prices [3]. - The use of satellite remote sensing technology for monitoring global cotton production areas was presented, showcasing its potential to help businesses anticipate weather impacts on yield and quality [3]. - Practical case studies on the application of options in the cotton industry were shared, highlighting their role in risk management and how companies can tailor strategies to their specific needs [3]. Group 4: Future Directions - The successful hosting of the conference established a platform for ongoing communication between cotton enterprises and financial institutions, enhancing understanding of risk management tools [4]. - The organizers plan to continue facilitating exchange activities under the guidance of the ZCE to promote high-quality development in the cotton industry [4].