Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is actively promoting regional sustainable development through enhanced cooperation in various sectors, including connectivity, agriculture, industry, green industries, and digital economy, especially in the context of geopolitical conflicts and trade barriers [1][2]. Group 1: Connectivity Enhancement - The SCO serves as a significant platform for the Belt and Road Initiative, facilitating infrastructure cooperation and trade facilitation among member states [2]. - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total import and export volume with SCO member countries via land transport reached 677.4 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4%, while air transport reached 251.01 billion yuan, with a growth of 44.6% [2]. Group 2: Economic Transformation and Upgrading - The SCO provides a platform for sharing experiences in agricultural technology and industrial collaboration, enhancing the sustainability and autonomy of member countries' economic development [3]. - Uzbekistan has adopted Chinese drip irrigation technology, significantly improving cotton yield and water resource management [3]. - The establishment of the China-Belarus "Great Stone" Industrial Park has attracted over 150 enterprises from 15 countries, fostering industrial clusters in various sectors [3][4]. Group 3: New Cooperation Opportunities - The SCO countries are diversifying cooperation in green technology and digital infrastructure, which supports sustainable development [6]. - The 100 MW photovoltaic power station in Kazakhstan exemplifies successful green energy collaboration, aiding the region's transition to a low-carbon economy [6]. - The establishment of the "Silk Road E-commerce" comprehensive service base aims to enhance cross-border e-commerce and logistics [6]. Group 4: Digital Economy and Technological Innovation - The development of 5G networks in Kyrgyzstan has increased internet penetration from 43% to over 70%, showcasing the impact of digital infrastructure [6]. - The digital healthcare platform in Tajikistan provides remote medical consultations, benefiting remote populations [6]. - The SCO's focus on digital cooperation and multilateral coordination is expected to enhance member states' autonomous development capabilities [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report - Cotton Fluctuates, Awaits Demand Improvement [2] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] - Researcher Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03109641, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Z0018457 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 closed lower with a weekly decline of about 0.64%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract fell 0.62% [7][20] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. Although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth [7] - In general, tight supply of old crops and expected demand improvement are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and control risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract both declined this week [7][20] - **Market Outlook**: Tight supply of old crops, expected demand improvement, new crop growth affected by weather. Short - term trend positive, medium - term suppressed by new crop increase [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December US cotton contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 0.19%. As of August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.66% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.04% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 8.35% month - on - month [10] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: The US current market - year cotton export sales increased by 105,400 bales, and shipments were 123,300 bales. New sales were 138,800 bales, lower than last week. As of August 18, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 79.15 cents per pound, down 0.31% month - on - month [15] - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 48,516, and in cotton yarn futures was - 380 lots. Cotton futures warehouse receipts were 7,198 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 64 lots [20][26][33] - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,457 yuan/ton [35] - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,700 yuan/ton. As of August 19, 2025, CY index:OEC10s was 14,800 yuan/ton [41][52] - **Futures Basis**: The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,213 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract was 640 yuan/ton [47] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 19, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of imported cotton increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price increased by 0.20% month - on - month. The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn C32S, C21S, and JC32S all declined slightly [59] - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 19, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 894 yuan/ton, and that of 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,650 yuan/ton [63] 3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [67] - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, the imported cotton yarn volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn volume was 780,000 tons [71] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month, and the export value of clothing and accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [79] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 534.13 billion yuan, up 20.42% month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.5%, down 3.85% month - on - month [83] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [84] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.**: P/E ratio trend [89]

Group 1 - India has suspended an 11% import duty on cotton until September 30, signaling a willingness to address U.S. concerns regarding agricultural tariffs and alleviating pressure on its domestic apparel industry [1] - The temporary exemption allows U.S. cotton farmers to benefit while providing relief to India's apparel sector, which will face nearly 60% tariffs on exports to the U.S. starting later this month [1] - The planned visit of U.S. trade negotiators to New Delhi from August 25 to 29 has been canceled, delaying discussions on a proposed bilateral trade agreement and diminishing hopes for Indian goods to avoid an additional 25% tariff starting August 27 [1] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a penalty for India's purchase of Russian oil, resulting in a total import tariff rate on Indian products doubling to 50% [1] - Previously, Indian export goods faced tariffs ranging from 0% to 5%, while certain textiles had tariffs between 9% and 13% before Trump's tariff increase in April [1] - The U.S. is the largest market for Indian apparel exporters, and high tariffs are leading to order cancellations and loss of competitive advantage against countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the vibrant agricultural landscape in Xinjiang, showcasing the importance of cotton and the role of futures markets in risk management within the cotton industry [1] - Xinjiang is focusing on building a complete cotton industry chain, enhancing competitiveness in planting and deep processing, supported by financial services to ensure high-quality development [1] - Zhejiang Futures Industry is leveraging its expertise to provide continuous support to the Xinjiang cotton industry through innovative financial services [1] Group 2 - Cotton prices are experiencing significant volatility due to multiple factors, increasing operational risks for market participants and posing new challenges to the stability of the cotton industry chain [2] - There is a growing demand for diversified and personalized risk management tools among cotton enterprises in Xinjiang, leading to an exploration of futures tools [2] - A specific cotton supply chain company in Xinjiang is actively integrating futures tools into its production processes to mitigate potential operational risks [2] Group 3 - Zhejiang Futures Industry has designed several hedging solutions tailored to the specific needs of a cotton enterprise, optimizing service models based on market conditions [3] - The cotton enterprise successfully executed three transactions involving over-the-counter options, utilizing a buy-in circuit breaker cumulative put option strategy to stabilize operations amid market fluctuations [3] - The advantages of over-the-counter options include lower capital requirements and greater flexibility compared to traditional futures hedging, enhancing the ability of enterprises to manage market risks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a slight decrease of 0.03% reported [1] - On August 19, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 67.77 cents per pound, with a closing price of 67.64 cents per pound, reflecting a decline of 0.37% [2] - The Indian government has announced the immediate removal of an 11% import duty on cotton and the Agricultural Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC), effective from August 19 to September 30, as a response to U.S. tariffs [2] Group 2 - The Cotton Association of India (CAI) reported that the current cotton crop is growing well, with all ten major growing states receiving adequate rainfall [2] - Despite a 3% decrease in sowing area compared to the previous year, with approximately 10.7 million hectares sown this year versus 11 million hectares last year, an increase in yield of up to 10% is anticipated [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has decided to adjust the warehouse premium standards for cotton delivery warehouses starting September 1, 2026, while maintaining the original standards for those registered before that date [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The USDA August report shows a significant reduction in the US cotton planting and harvest areas due to drought, leading to a 302,000 - ton decrease in US cotton production to 2.877 million tons, while China's cotton production increases by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and global cotton production decreases by 391,000 tons month - on - month [6]. - Cotton demand is weak. Cotton prices are weaker than cotton yarn this week, with weak spot transaction prices. Spinning mills' inventory pressure has eased, and weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased [6]. - Cotton inventory is decreasing. The BCO reported that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The destocking speed is accelerating [6]. - The strategy is that there may be one more decline in the short - term for single - side trading, but in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy Zhengzhou cotton at low prices after the concentrated supply pressure is realized, as the USDA report is unexpectedly bullish and has established the lower support for US cotton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The USDA August report shows that the US cotton planting area is reduced by 8% to 9.3 million acres, and the harvest area is reduced by 15% to 7.4 million acres. The national cotton abandonment rate rises from 14% to 21% due to drought in the Southwest. US cotton production decreases by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons, China's production increases by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and global production decreases by 391,000 tons month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: Cotton prices are weaker than cotton yarn this week, with weak spot transaction prices. In the off - season, spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low, and their inventory pressure has eased. Weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased, and their inventory pressure has also decreased. Spinning profits have slightly expanded, and the loss in inland areas has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: The BCO reported that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The destocking speed is the fastest this year. Spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory continues to decline. Inland yarn mills' operation rate is still weak, with high finished - product inventory and decreasing raw - material inventory in the industrial chain [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 7,829, with 249 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 323,100 tons, the same as on August 8 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remains firm, and the spot transaction price drops with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang for the 09 contract is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of ginning mills this year is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. With some ginning mills in northern Xinjiang exiting and the poor overall demand outlook, the expected opening price for the new season is not high [6]. - **Macro**: Domestically, the economy shows a weak recovery pattern with insufficient effective demand. Overseas, the US economy is still in a downward channel, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with the first cut likely in September with a probability of over 90% [6]. - **Strategy**: There may be one more decline in the short - term for single - side trading, but in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy Zhengzhou cotton at low prices after the concentrated supply pressure is realized [6]. 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the global cotton supply - demand situation shows changes in various aspects such as initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory ratio. For example, the global production in 2025/26 (August) is 25.392 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 548,000 tons [10]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The production of main cotton - producing countries like China, the US, India, etc., shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. For example, China's production in 2025/26 is 6.858 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56% [11]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The consumption of main cotton - consuming countries shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. For example, global consumption in 2025/26 is 25.688 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.02% [12]. - **US Cotton**: The overall US inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is shifting from three - year destocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to factors such as the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks and tariff relaxation, the continuous restocking behavior is somewhat weakened [18]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new - season domestic cotton planting area is expected to expand, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas. The cotton commercial inventory in China is being destocked at a fast speed [22][24][40].

有着多年棉田管理经验的邓军伟深知，科技的进步让田管工作变得更加高效。北斗导航播种机、智能 滴灌等先进设备的应用，以及乡村技术员在水肥调控、病虫害防治等方面的常态化指导，使得种植效 率和质量逐年提升，棉农们对丰收充满信心。 巴楚县多来提巴格乡阿亚克诺村干部依尔夏提·阿卜杜外力说："我们全力以赴指导棉农做好棉花的后 期管理工作，为棉花稳产高产保驾护航。" 面对近期降雨天气，阿亚克诺村组织农业技术人员深入田间，为棉农面对面讲解管理要点。同时，村 干部分片跟进，确保除草、病虫害防治等落到实处，全力保障棉花顺利进入吐絮期。 立秋过后，新疆巴楚县棉花进入生长后期，各乡镇正紧锣密鼓地开展田管后期工作，为棉花丰收奠定 坚实基础。 8月13日，在多来提巴格乡阿亚克诺村千亩棉田里，青绿枝叶间缀满圆润棉桃，星星点点的白色小花点 缀其间。棉田管护员邓军伟穿梭田间，正在进行除草、检查滴灌设备等工作。 巴楚县多来提巴格乡阿亚克诺村棉田管护员邓军伟说："目前棉花长势不错，一株棉花最少结十一二个 桃子，我们正做好田间管理，争取每亩产量能达到450公斤以上。" ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The decline rate slowed down, but the absolute value was at a low level. The new crop is growing well with an expected increase in production. The operating rates of downstream spinning mills and weaving mills continued to decline, accompanied by an increase in finished product inventories. It is expected to show a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and cotton import policies [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Supply Situation - **Domestic Cotton**: As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The new crop growth is good with an expected increase in production [3] - **US Cotton**: As of August 3, in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US, the budding rate was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. Although the cotton - planting area decreased this year, the high good - to - excellent rate indicates a promising yield [4] 2. Downstream Market Conditions - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of this Wednesday, the operating rates of spinning mills and grey fabric mills were 49.3 and 47.7 respectively, slightly down from last week. The finished product inventories were 30 and 33.8 days respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days and 0.1 days. The operating load indexes of spinning mills and fabric mills continued to be at the lowest in the past three years, and the finished product inventories continued to be at the highest in the past three years. Spinning mills' raw material inventories are at the highest level in the same period in recent years, while weaving mills' cotton yarn inventories are at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, indicating low downstream confidence [5] - **Export and Retail**: According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending July 17, the weekly net signing of 2024/25 US upland cotton was - 7,400 tons, including 10,000 tons of cancelled contracts. The weekly signing of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%, including 9,700 tons from Vietnam and 3,700 tons from Pakistan [21] 3. Price and Basis Situation - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 15,191 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 134 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,521 yuan/ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 154 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 20,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract was 19,705 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 915 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 5 yuan/ton [41] - **Price Index Changes**: The CotlookA price index increased from 78.2 cents/pound on July 30, 2025, to 78.25 cents/pound on August 6, 2025, an increase of 0.05 cents/pound. The Indian S - 6 spot price decreased from 57,000 rupees/candy on July 31, 2025, to 56,800 rupees/candy on August 7, 2025, a decrease of 200 rupees/candy [10] - **Import Price Changes**: From July 31 to August 7, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all decreased. The arrival prices of imported cotton also decreased, with the US EMOT M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 79 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 44 yuan/ton; the Brazilian M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 181 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 105 yuan/ton [11] 4. Market Inventory and Position Situation - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 8,677; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 88 [53] - **Futures Positions**: The content provides the trends of ICE 2 - grade cotton futures' non - priced sell orders, non - priced buy orders, and futures positions (active contracts and continuous contracts) [48]

Report Title - The report is titled "Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report 20250808: New Cotton Growth Generally Good, Focus on Peak Season Demand Boost" [1][2][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The short - term macro situation has uncertainties, demand expectations are weak, new cotton planting area may continue to increase, and structural supply has attracted market attention, forming a phased support. In the medium and long term, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, domestic production may remain high, demand expectations are poor, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve. Therefore, the rebound space of cotton is limited, the overall market is still under pressure, and the operation suggestion is to short after the rebound [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand Balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic, cotton consumption was frustrated, but production remained at a relatively high level, and domestic cotton shifted from destocking to stockpiling with a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In 2025/26, production is expected to be good, but demand is still under pressure due to macro and policy disturbances, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. According to the July 2025 cotton information network data, in 2025/26, cotton production is expected to be at a high level, consumption is basically stable, imports have decreased significantly, and the ending inventory has decreased [12][13] - **New Cotton Growth**: Cotton is usually sown in May and harvested in mid - September. In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached about 685 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and under normal climate conditions, the new - season output is expected to be high, and currently, the new cotton growth is generally good, with the whole Xinjiang cotton entering the peak flowering and boll - setting stage [19] - **Inventory Situation**: In the 2023/24 season, cotton supply was sufficient with a high carry - over inventory. Currently, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. The market is concerned about the possible short - term structural supply shortage, but the industrial inventory remains at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still high. As of the end of June, the commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons from the previous month, and the industrial inventory was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.81 million tons from the previous month [23][24] - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened, and attention should be paid to cotton imports. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous month and an 82.1% decrease from the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% decrease year - on - year [34][43] - **Downstream Demand**: Overseas interest - rate cuts and US tariff policies are uncertain, and the Xinjiang cotton issue remains unresolved, so the foreign trade situation is expected to be severe. Although domestic policies are boosting the economy, the demand recovery remains to be seen. Recently, the sales of downstream yarns in some areas have improved, and grey - cloth orders have increased, but overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and finished - product inventory has increased. In June 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 127.5 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 13.078 billion US dollars, a 0.76% increase year - on - year [47][52] Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as state - reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the state - reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [55][57] Global Supply and Demand - **Overall Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered significantly, and the stock - to - use ratio has increased slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to decrease slightly, demand will recover, and the ending inventory will continue to increase. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the growth and harvest period with an optimistic production outlook, while the major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growth period. The weather in the US cotton - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing in India is behind schedule compared with the same period last year [66] - **Major Countries' Situations** - **United States**: In the 2024/25 season, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvest area remained high, the yield per unit is expected to decrease, and production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but subsequent demand remains to be tracked. Last week, US cotton contract signings declined, and shipments increased [72] - **Brazil**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% increase year - on - year [72] - **India**: As of July 18, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year [72] Spread and Basis - The report provides data and trends on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread, 5 - 9 spread) and basis (such as cotton 01 basis, 05 basis, 09 basis) [79][84]

Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices are experiencing fluctuations, with mixed growth conditions for U.S. cotton, indicating potential supply and demand challenges in the market [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The closing price for cotton futures (contract 2509) was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or -0.15% from the previous day [1] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a national average price of 15,169 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: U.S. Cotton Growth Conditions - As of August 3, the blooming rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major planting states was 87%, which is 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The quality rate was 55%, which is 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five-year average [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Internationally, the supply side is minimally affected by weather this year, with a potential oversupply in the global cotton market for the 2025/26 season [1] - U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, and drought conditions have improved, but new export contracts are weak, leading to a lack of upward momentum in international cotton prices [1] - Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, with low import volumes expected in the third quarter and tight inventory before the new cotton harvest [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The good growth conditions for new cotton and strong production expectations may pressure cotton prices in the fourth quarter, with uncertain demand prospects for the second half of the year [1] - The strategy suggests that due to ample global cotton supply in the new year and a lack of upward drivers in the industry, cotton prices may face short-term pressure and fluctuations [1]