棉花市场2026年年报 棉花：千寻深处探春温 一绽云裳上玉墀 ——2025年棉花市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 侯芝芳 Z0014216 摘要： 2025年棉花期货整体是筑底行情。年度走势锚定因子主要是三个，一是中美贸易 关系反复，二是进口量同比下滑明显，三是新疆产量增幅较为明显。美国对等关税把 利空情绪打到极致，期价进入年内低位区间，而进口量同比下滑，使得年度尾端供应 吃紧，又把期价抬到了年内高位区间，之后又在新疆产量增幅超预期的带动下，回到 低位区间。 2026年棉花价格到底是接着筑底还是筑底回升，关键点主要还是看供应端是否有 驱动。目前种植端是有风险累积的。全球角度来看，棉花期价持续处于低位之后，种 植积极性是有所下降的，并且美棉/美玉米以及美棉/美豆比价确实也不支持其面积增 长，政策端来看，中国以及印度边际驱动也是下降的，因此棉花种植端是有缩量预期 的，不过这个风险累积是否能引发资金热情，还是要看是否有天气助力，一旦出现天 气扰动，就可能会触发一波上涨行情。国内角度来看，补贴的边际提振也在下降，同 时2026年将面临新一轮政策方案，方案定调也会引发价格波动。目前对于2026年 ...

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 【概要】本周，美联储降息预期兑现，国内中央经济会议召开定调进一步扩内需促消费，金融市场信心 有所提振；受国内棉纺消费保持韧性、国际消费需求疲软等因素影响，国内棉价重心上移，国际棉价维 持弱势震荡，内外棉价差继续扩大。 一、价格回顾 国内方面，随着新棉销售快速推进，丰产压力逐步消化，现货市场报价坚挺；同时，中央经济会议召开 给金融市场带来信心，国内棉价延续涨势。本周郑州棉花期货主力合约结算均价13794元/吨，较前周上 涨31元/吨，涨幅0.2%；代表内地标准级皮棉市场价格的国家棉花价格B指数均价14960元/吨，较前周上 涨41元/吨，涨幅0.3%。 国际市场，美联储宣布降息25个基点符合市场预期，金融市场情绪有所回暖，但在美国农业部进一步上 调美棉产量的影响下，国际棉价走势维持弱势，均价略有下降。本周纽约棉花期货主力合约结算均价 63.89美分/磅，较前周下跌0.44美分/磅，跌幅0.7%；代表进口棉中国主港到岸均价的国际棉花指数(M) 均价71.99美分/磅，折人民币进口成本12559元/吨(按1%关税计算，不含港杂和运费)，较前周下跌89元/ 吨，跌幅0.7%。国 ...

新华财经北京12月12日电据农业农村部网站12日消息，近日，国家农作物品种审定委员会修订并印发 《国家级棉花品种审定标准（2025年修订）》，于2025年12月1日起正式实施。本次修订突出服务生产 需求、激励原始创新导向，重点提高了品种抗病、机收、产量及DNA指纹差异位点数等方面指标要 求，进一步引导提升审定品种质量水平。一是提高抗病性指标。要求枯萎病病情指数、黄萎病病情指数 分别达到高抗和抗等级，有助于应对现阶段棉花连作导致枯萎病、黄萎病加重发生风险。二是强化机收 指标。在生育期、植株形态结构、结铃吐絮性能、脱叶剂敏感度等指标上符合机收要求，引导提高棉花 综合机械化水平。三是提高产量指标。两年区试平均产量指标增产≥3%，同时每年增产幅度不低于1% （提高1个百分点），生产试验增产点率由≥50%提高至≥60%，明确不同纤维品质类型品种产量指标要 求，引导提升棉花单产水平。四是明确DNA指纹差异位点数指标。要求审定品种与已知品种DNA指纹 检测差异位点数≥3个，严防模仿修饰育种和品种同质化。五是新增耐除草剂转基因品种指标。根据生 物育种研发进展增加耐除草剂指标要求，更好适应当前国内生产需要。 （文章来源：新华财 ...

四季度以来，ICE棉花期货价格呈偏弱震荡走势，主力合约最低下探63美分／磅一线，原因有两方面： 一方面，美国政府"停摆"导致市场数据缺失，且全球贸易存在不确定性；另一方面，美棉产量预估变化 和出口情况对美棉价格不利。 全球棉花期末库存增加 美国产量调整空间或有限 12月USDA供需报告显示，与11月相比，美棉产量预估调增15万包，消费量预估调减10万包，最终期末 库存预估调增20万包，至450万包。与上年度相比，美棉期末库存增加50万包，主要贡献来自期初库存 的增加，期末库销比上升3.2个百分点。 根据USDA统计，截至2025年12月5日当周，美棉累计检验量为200.85万吨，占全年美棉产量预估值的 65.7%，较去年同期低11个百分点。美棉收获进入尾声，上市检验进入高峰期，上市进度同比落后幅度 收窄，质量指标继续上升。12月USDA供需报告显示，2025/2026年度美棉整体弃种率为20.75%，结合 往年美棉生长状况，弃种率并无显著矛盾。另外，美棉收获进入尾声，预计美棉产量后期调整幅度不 大。由此推测，美棉出口量的变化是影响美棉价格的关键因素之一。 美棉周度出口报告显示，截至11月6日当周，美国陆地棉周 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 棉花：供需调整幅度较小，报告偏中性 USDA 棉花月度报告解读 2025/26年度供需数据调整情况: 美国农业部12月份的报告中，对主要生产国的供需数据调整幅度较小，报告影响总体偏中性。25/26年度全球产 量下调6.4万吨，其中美国产量继续上调，美棉产量上调3.4万吨至310.7万吨，其余主产国均未作调整。12月份 的报告种美棉的收获面积未作调整,单产进行了上调，单产从11月份的919磅/英亩上调至929磅/英亩。 25/26年度全球消费下调6万吨,巴西消费下调2.2万吨，其余主要消费国均未作调整,消费数据总体持稳。 25/26年度棉花进口环比下调5.9万吨,其中越南进口下调2.1万吨,盖加拉进口下调2.2万吨,中国进口未作调 整，目前中美贸易协定对于中国进口美棉或没有强制性的要求。全球出口下调5.6万吨，主要出口国均未作调 整。 全球25/26期末库存环比小幅上调0.9万吨，其中中国期末库存下调0.1万吨，美国期末库存上调4.4万吨，巴西 期末库存上调4.5万吨。全球主要棉花生产国的期末库存调整幅度均不大，25/26年度主要的棉花主产国的产量 以丰产或高产为主，全球需求总体表现一般,因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Kazakh government has approved an investment agreement for the establishment of a complete cotton production and garment manufacturing industry cluster in Turkestan region, aiming to enhance agricultural development and introduce advanced agricultural technologies [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project will create the largest cotton growing and processing complex in Central Asia, covering 60,000 hectares of irrigated farmland, generating over 1,400 long-term jobs and more than 300 seasonal jobs [1] - The investment from China Xinjiang Lihua Group exceeds 58 billion tenge for the first phase, with total foreign investment expected to surpass 200 billion tenge [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The project will introduce several previously unused technologies in Kazakhstan, including 196 efficient drip irrigation pump stations, over 500 kilometers of water distribution channels, and integrated fertilizer application systems [1] - The complex will also feature polyethylene recycling lines for drip tape and hose production, significantly reducing import dependency and achieving a closed-loop production from raw cotton to finished garments [1] Group 3: Agricultural Impact - The project is expected to significantly increase the domestic deep processing ratio and expand the production of high-value-added textiles, strengthening the local textile industry and enhancing export potential [2] - Turkestan region has traditionally been a major cotton-producing area in Kazakhstan, with cotton fields accounting for 15.9% of the region's arable land [2] - By 2025, the cotton planting area is projected to reach 144,500 hectares, with an expected total raw cotton output of 428,000 tons, achieving the highest yield in nearly 18 years due to the widespread adoption of water-saving technologies and high-quality varieties [2]

Core Insights - The average cotton yield in China for 2025 is projected to be 161.7 kg/mu, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year, with a total production estimate of 7.409 million tons, reflecting an 11.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Xinjiang's cotton production is expected to reach 7.047 million tons, marking a 12.2% year-on-year increase, driven by favorable weather conditions and improved agricultural practices [2] Group 1: Production Data - The national cotton planting area is estimated at 45.803 million mu, with a total production of 7.409 million tons, which is an increase of 11.0% year-on-year [1] - Xinjiang's average cotton yield is projected at 171.8 kg/mu, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, while Gansu's yield is expected to be 126.8 kg/mu, up 7.8% year-on-year [1] - The Yellow River basin is experiencing a significant reduction in cotton production, with an average yield of 76.9 kg/mu, down 4.2% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Production - Favorable weather conditions and refined management practices in Xinjiang have contributed to the increase in both yield and total production [2] - The promotion of high-yield cotton varieties and the application of integrated water and fertilizer management techniques have also played a crucial role in boosting production [2] - Despite initial lower yields in certain areas, overall production is expected to see slight growth due to increased planting areas [2]

近期，虽然USDA调增了全球棉花产量，但东南亚对美棉的签约量增加，给了美棉价格较强支撑。国内 方面，集中收购已结束，后期套保压力有限，远期供需紧平衡格局支撑郑棉价格震荡偏强运行。 国内棉花产量回升 近年来，我国棉花产量持续上升。第一，国家补贴政策使种植棉花的收益相较其他作物稳定有保障，因 此棉花种植面积增加；第二，棉花种植技术（棉种选择、滴灌技术等）不断进步，使国内棉花单产稳定 且在全球范围内处于偏高水平。叠加近年来棉花生长期天气情况良好，棉花总产量不断创新高。 2024/2025年度我国棉纺行业总消费量同比增长0.68%，其中出口同比增长24.25%，内销同比下滑 35.7%。 观察纺织服装上市公司的库存情况可以发现，2024年12月，终端企业仍在大幅累库，2025年中期通过降 价促销等实现小幅去库。不过，受政策强预期影响，2026年内销部分继续压缩的空间有限，存在好转的 可能性。 出口方面，2025年我国棉纺制品出口消费明显好于预期。具体看，我国对美国累计出口同比增长 0.48%，显著好于预期；对欧盟出口累计同比增长10.29%；对东盟出口累计同比增长6.28%；对日韩出 口累计同比增长7.48%。但强劲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - **International**: The November USDA monthly report was restarted, with adjustments significantly bearish for the market. The USDA substantially increased the global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, including major producers like the US, China, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was only slightly adjusted upwards, leading to a notable rise in global ending stocks compared to September and a return to inventory accumulation. US cotton production was significantly increased due to a marked improvement in yield, while exports were only raised by 40,000 tons, significantly increasing the sales pressure on US cotton. There is a possibility of a downward adjustment to the export target, but it depends on the negotiation situation between the US and other regions. Currently, with the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, there is significant short - term supply pressure, and global textile end - consumption remains weak. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, with limited further downward potential, but the upward drive is unclear and may be volatile. The focus should be on the subsequent sales of US cotton [5]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. As the cotton harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, the expected cotton production has recently rebounded after several adjustments, with the expected production in Xinjiang this year maintained at 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. Since the fourth quarter is still the period of concentrated listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are seasonally rising, and there is sufficient short - term supply. Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging positions. On the demand side, downstream demand has been weak since entering the off - season of the textile industry, but spinning profits have generally improved, and the pressure on finished product inventories is acceptable, without forming an obvious negative feedback, so the downward space of the market is also limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the medium to long term, the expansion of downstream production capacity has increased domestic cotton consumption, and consumption in the new season is expected to remain resilient. With the expected low level of imports, the domestic supply - demand situation in the new season is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [6]. Strategy In the short term, the market will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the center of cotton prices is expected to move up. It is recommended to build long positions in distant contracts on dips [7]. Summary by Directory 2025 Cotton Market Review - **ICE US Cotton**: Throughout 2025, ICE US cotton showed a volatile downward trend under the influence of loose global supply and external macro - pressure. Although there were periodic rebounds, the overall strength was weak. In the first half of the year, international industry news was relatively quiet. In early April, the market accelerated its decline due to the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy but quickly recovered later. In the second half of the year, due to the good yield expectations of major cotton - producing countries, the market continuously traded on the expectation of global bumper harvests, and combined with the poor performance of US cotton export contracts, the US cotton futures price continued to weaken [1][11]. - **Domestic Zhengzhou Cotton**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton market had five main stages throughout the year. From January to March, it fluctuated, with the post - holiday downstream trading improving after the negative tariff policy was exhausted, but the tariff issue resurfaced at the end of February, causing the price to decline. From April to June, it bottomed out and rebounded. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, Zhengzhou cotton gapped down and plunged due to Trump's announcement of high - tariff policies, but rebounded as Sino - US trade relations eased. From July to August, it first rose and then fell back, followed by a relatively strong fluctuation. In July, the domestic commercial inventory was rapidly depleted, and the supply shortage expectation at the end of the year increased, and the price climbed continuously but then fell back from the high. In August, the tariff extension and tight spot supply supported the relatively strong fluctuation. In September, it accelerated its decline as new cotton was about to be listed and the yield increase expectation was strengthening, and the demand was weak. From October to the present, it fluctuated within a range. After the National Day, as the harvest progress accelerated, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, and Zhengzhou cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, but the upward space was limited by hedging pressure [12]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis Global: The ending stocks for the 25/26 season were significantly increased, and the supply - demand outlook is relatively loose The November USDA report was the first after the US government ended the shutdown. The USDA significantly increased the global cotton production by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to September, including increases in the US, Brazil, and China. Global cotton consumption was only slightly increased by 10,000 tons to 25.88 million tons, with the increase in consumption far less than the increase in supply. Due to a slight increase in the beginning stocks, the ending stocks were increased by 610,000 tons compared to September and 310,000 tons year - on - year. The new - season global cotton market supply - demand outlook is relatively loose [16]. US: The USDA increased US cotton production, and the export target is still uncertain The USDA increased US cotton production by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons in November, mainly due to the significant improvement in yield. The new - season US cotton export volume was slightly increased by 40,000 tons to 2.66 million tons. However, the US cotton sales progress is still significantly behind compared to previous years, and it is still uncertain whether the export target can be achieved, and there is a possibility of a downward adjustment. As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress was 71%, behind the same period last year and the five - year average. The drought situation has slightly expanded, but its impact on cotton growth has weakened [19][20][23]. India: The yield is expected to remain stable year - on - year, and there are differences in import and consumption estimates The USDA made few adjustments to India's cotton supply - demand this month. The 25/26 season's cotton yield is estimated to be 5.23 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; imports are estimated to be 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons year - on - year; consumption is estimated to be 5.44 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; exports are estimated to be 280,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons year - on - year; and ending stocks are estimated to be 2.29 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. The India Cotton Association (CAI) has different estimates, with a decrease in yield, an increase in imports, a decrease in domestic demand, a decrease in exports, and an increase in ending stocks compared to the previous year [30]. Brazil: The yield increase expectation for the 25/26 season is stable, but the export target is challenging According to the November USDA report, Brazil's cotton production for the 25/26 season was increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons compared to September, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA also slightly increased Brazil's cotton export volume by 40,000 tons to 3.16 million tons, and the ending stocks were increased by 60,000 tons compared to September and 160,000 tons year - on - year. The current sales progress of Brazilian cotton is still significantly behind, and the overseas textile and clothing export performance is weak, so the subsequent export of Brazilian cotton still faces significant pressure [33]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis USDA: Continuously increased domestic cotton production, showing a slight inventory accumulation in the new season The November USDA report significantly increased China's cotton production for the 25/26 season by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year, and slightly increased imports by 40,000 tons to 1.18 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. The ending stocks were increased by 260,000 tons compared to September and 70,000 tons compared to the 24/25 season, showing a slight inventory accumulation [36]. BCO: Slightly increased the consumption for the 25/26 season, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose In November, the Cotton Information Network (BCO) made few adjustments to the domestic supply - demand data for the 25/26 season. The national production was stable at 7.42 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons compared to the previous year. Imports remained at the estimated 1.2 million tons. The annual spinning cotton consumption expectation was increased by 60,000 tons, and other consumption was decreased by 30,000 tons. Exports remained at 20,000 tons. The ending stocks were decreased by 30,000 tons to 6.33 million tons, but still increased by 170,000 tons year - on - year, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose [40][41]. Purchase and Sale: The new cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the yield increase expectation is further strengthened As of November 20, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.9%, the delivery rate was 98.1%, the processing rate was 64.2%, and the sales rate was 27.9%, all higher than the same period last year and the four - year average. The expected new cotton production is 7.432 million tons, and the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton is 7.351 million tons, an increase of 755,000 tons year - on - year [44]. Import: The import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the new season The domestic cotton import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. Although the tariff on US cotton imports has been reduced, the expected increase in domestic cotton production and the limited quota are expected to keep the new - season import volume at a low level. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 66.9% year - on - year [46][48]. Inventory: The commercial inventory turned positive year - on - year, with significant short - term supply pressure In October, the domestic new cotton was listed in large quantities, and the commercial inventory increased rapidly, turning positive year - on - year. As of the end of October 2025, the national cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The textile enterprise's in - stock industrial inventory and available inventory also increased [51]. Direct Downstream: Mainly for raw material procurement based on rigid demand, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable The downstream demand is currently not strong but still has some resilience. The cotton yarn market has entered the off - season, with a decline in orders. The Xinjiang market is stable without inventory pressure. The grey fabric market is differentiated, with the clothing category weak and the home textile category having continuous sales. The weaving mills' inventory is low, and they mainly purchase as needed. The spinning profit has improved, and the inventory pressure on finished products is not large, but attention should be paid to the subsequent foreign trade orders [61]. Terminal Consumption: Domestic demand is growing steadily, and the foreign trade is under pressure but the export environment is expected to improve Domestically, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles have achieved stable growth this year. In October, the retail sales were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales were 1.2053 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Externally, textile and clothing exports continued to be under pressure in October. However, the Sino - US negotiation has achieved substantial progress, and the export tariff has been reduced, which is expected to improve the export competitiveness. In the last two months of the fourth quarter, exports to the US are expected to pick up slightly, and the foreign trade export environment is expected to improve next year [70][71]. 2026 Cotton Market Outlook - **International**: The November USDA report is bearish for the market. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere and weak global textile end - consumption. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space, but the upward drive is unclear, and attention should be paid to the subsequent sales [81]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a range due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the medium to long term, domestic cotton consumption is expected to be resilient, and the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cotton is likely to continue its oscillatory trend in the short term. The core logics are that the current Sino-US trade relations have eased, presenting a positive macro environment; there is a strong expectation of a bountiful cotton supply this year, and the subsequent hedging pressure will be significant as the cost gradually stabilizes; the downstream market shows a lukewarm performance, with enterprises' finished product inventories in a healthy state and a rigid demand for cotton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On the 20th local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released an employment report. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly higher than the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The non-farm employment data shows that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low, but currently, most Fed officials support a December rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a "25-basis-point rate cut" in December has risen to over 70% [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Commercial Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. The total inventory in Xinjiang was 2.9346 million tons, an increase of 593,800 tons; the total inventory in the inland was 377,100 tons, an increase of 278,800 tons; the bonded warehouse cotton inventory was 328,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons. The current commercial cotton inventory is at the highest level in the same period in history, and it is expected to remain at this high level in the next few months [2]. Industrial Inventory - As of November 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons, and an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of last month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.0875 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99,840 tons, and an increase of 20,800 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.35 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 days and an increase of 0.23 days from the end of last month. The grey cloth inventory was 31.12 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.71 days and a decrease of 0.85 days from the end of last month. Currently, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises is in a healthy state, and the stable operating rate creates a rigid demand for cotton consumption [2]. 3. One - Week Data Overview - As of November 21, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot price index was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07%. The main contract price of ICE cotton futures was 61.85 cents/pound, down 0.65 cents/pound from last week, with a decline of 1.04%. The NYMEX crude oil price was 57.98 dollars/barrel, down 1.97 dollars/barrel from last week, with a decline of 3.29%. The Shanghai gold main contract was 926.94 yuan/gram, down 26.26 yuan/gram from last week, with a decline of 2.75% [4][6]. 4. Domestic Market Basic Situation Raw Material Price Index - On November 21, the price center of raw materials showed mixed trends compared with last week. The short - fiber main contract closed at 6,162 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 1.22%. The cotton main contract closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot 3128B market price was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07% [10]. Domestic Cotton Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of domestic yarns moved slightly higher compared with last week. The price of OEC10S airflow - spun yarn remained unchanged at 14,670 yuan/ton. The price of C32S carded yarn was 20,440 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.59% [12]. Imported Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of foreign yarns denominated in US dollars moved slightly lower compared with last week, and the price center of foreign yarns denominated in RMB declined. For example, the FCYIndexJC32S arrival price in US dollars was 2.64 dollars/kg, down 0.01 dollars/kg from last week, with a decline of 0.38%. The FCYIndexJC32S port pick - up price in RMB was 22,840 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.26% [15][19]. Cotton Price Spread - On November 21, the spread between domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128B and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was 953 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was - 383 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract under tariff was 514 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract's converted disk price was 3,451 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened [23][25]. Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of November 21, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 3,456, a decrease of 1,579 from last week. Among them, the total number of warehouse receipts was 2,244, a decrease of 2,157 from last week, and the total number of effective forecasts was 1,221, an increase of 578 from last week [28]. Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Spread - As of November 21, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and CCI3128B spot price index was - 1,336 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed [30]. Cotton Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. As of October 31, the monthly cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last month, with a decline of 10%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons, with a decline of 18.18% [33][35]. Cotton Inspection Volume - As of November 20, the Xinjiang cotton inspection volume was 3.3915 million tons, the inland cotton inspection volume was 14,900 tons, and the national cotton inspection volume was 3.4064 million tons [38]. Cotton Textile Industry PMI - As of the end of October, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's cotton textile industry was 52.66%, up 8.37 percentage points from last month, and it returned above the boom - bust line for the first time in seven months since March this year [40]. 5. Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - The US federal government shutdown ended, which is expected to have a negative impact on the US economy in the fourth quarter. The market is currently focused on the Fed's possible interest rate cut in December, and the decision will depend on factors such as inflation and the employment market [41]. Cotton Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from last month, with an increase rate of 186.84%, higher than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises showed a stable - to - increasing trend [41]. Market Price and Supply - Demand - As of November 14, the CRB commodity price index declined slightly, and the ICE cotton futures main contract price fell. The latest global cotton supply - demand report was bearish. In the short term, cotton prices may be under pressure and show a weak trend [41].