- The report introduces a timing model based on the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index. The model identifies market conditions by observing the difference between these two averages. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6633 and the 120-day moving average at 6485, with a difference of 2.28%, indicating a typical consolidation phase[3][7][12] - The mid-term industry allocation model highlights sectors with strong performance trends. It suggests focusing on industries related to computing power (e.g., semiconductor equipment ETF 159516.SZ, communication ETF 515880.SH), cyclical sectors (e.g., oil and gas ETF, energy chemical ETF 159981.SH), and the new energy sector. If a volume contraction signal appears, attention should shift to non-ferrous metals and military industries[3][6][8] - The report evaluates the market's valuation levels using PE and PB metrics. The Wind All A Index PE is positioned near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB is at the 50th percentile, reflecting a moderate valuation level[8][12] - The timing model suggests maintaining a 50% equity allocation for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index, considering the current market environment and valuation levels[6][8][12]

- The report includes multiple quantitative models for A-share market timing, such as the "Volume Model," "Feature Institutional Model," "Feature Volume Model," "Smart Algorithm Model," and "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" [1][11][64] - The "Volume Model" is neutral in the short term, while the "Feature Institutional Model" is also neutral. The "Feature Volume Model" indicates bearish signals. The "Smart Algorithm Model" for CSI 300 and CSI 500 shows bearish signals [11][64] - For mid-term A-share market timing, the "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model," "Up-Down Return Difference Model," and "Calendar Effect Model" are neutral [12][65] - The long-term "Momentum Model" is neutral [13][66] - The "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model" indicate bearish signals for A-shares [14][67] - For Hong Kong stocks, the "Turnover-to-Volatility Model" shows bearish signals, while the "Up-Down Return Difference Model" and "Up-Down Return Similarity Model" are neutral [15][68] - Backtesting results for the "Double Bottom Pattern" show a weekly return of 3.17%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.26%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return is 23.82%, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index by 11.13% [43][47] - Backtesting results for the "Cup-and-Handle Pattern" show a weekly return of 1.07%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return is 17.9%, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.21% [43][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market has been experiencing low-volume trading, indicating that market sentiment has not been fully released, and the market is expected to continue its volatile recovery. After the holiday, there may be a phased improvement in the capital and sentiment, and the market may see a rapid recovery [2] Summary of Each Directory Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Situation**: US President Trump plans to visit China from May 14 - 15, 2026, and China and the US are in communication about this. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, and denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran. Iran has organized over a million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front if invaded, with the Strait of Mandeb as the next target. Ships from countries like China, Russia, and Pakistan have safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz [1] - **Index Adjustment**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% to 3889.08 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.34%. Most sector indices declined, with only coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and the banking industry closing higher, while the computer, non - bank finance, communication, and environmental protection industries led the decline. The market turnover was less than 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 2.38% to 21408.08 points [1] - **IH Position Reduction**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IH, IF, and IC decreased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The market is expected to continue its volatile repair. After the holiday, there may be a phased improvement in the capital and sentiment, leading to a rapid market recovery [2] Charts - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][7][9] - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on March 26, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., with varying degrees of decline. Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [12][13] - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Present the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, with changes in trading volume and open interest. Also include the basis of stock index futures (futures - spot) and the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, along with relevant charts [16][37][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SenseTime-W (00020.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 2.72 [1][10]. Core Insights - SenseTime reported a revenue exceeding RMB 5 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 33%. The company achieved positive EBITDA and operating cash flow in the second half of the year, marking a significant transition towards profitability [2][10]. - The core growth driver is generative AI, which saw a remarkable 51% increase in revenue to RMB 3.6 billion, accounting for 72% of total revenue, indicating a successful strategic shift towards generative AI [10]. - The NEO architecture is leading breakthroughs in multimodal technology, creating a competitive edge that is difficult to replicate. The architecture requires only 1/10 of the data and computing power compared to industry standards to achieve state-of-the-art performance [10]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company reported total revenue of RMB 5,015 million, with projections of RMB 6,506 million for 2026, RMB 8,107 million for 2027, and RMB 9,867 million for 2028, reflecting growth rates of 33%, 30%, 25%, and 22% respectively [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,766 million in 2025 to a profit of RMB 172 million by 2028, indicating a significant turnaround [5][12]. - The report highlights a narrowing of net losses by 58.6% year-on-year and an 85% reduction in EBITDA losses to RMB 470 million, with the company achieving its first positive EBITDA of RMB 380 million in the second half of 2025 [10]. Business Segmentation - Revenue from generative AI is expected to grow from RMB 3,629.5 million in 2025 to RMB 8,257.11 million by 2028, with a growth rate of 50.98% in 2026 and 40% in 2027 [13]. - Visual AI revenue is projected to grow modestly, while the X innovation business is expected to decline slightly over the forecast period [13]. - The overall gross margin is expected to decrease from 41.01% in 2026 to 38.92% in 2028, reflecting the competitive landscape and cost pressures [13].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.41%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.34%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 19,434.53 billion [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and banking sectors led the gains, while the computer, non-bank financial, and telecommunications sectors faced declines. Concept sectors such as combustible ice, sodium-ion batteries, and Tianjin Free Trade Zone saw increases, whereas military restructuring concepts, HJT batteries, and newly listed tech stocks declined [2][7] - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.89% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 3.28%. Internationally, all three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 1.01%, the S&P 500 down by 1.74%, and the Nasdaq down by 2.38% [2][7] Important News - On March 26, 2026, the State Administration for Market Regulation held its first enterprise fair competition symposium, focusing on "regulating corporate competition behavior and building a healthy competitive ecosystem for enterprises going abroad." The meeting involved discussions with leaders from companies such as China Minmetals, China State Construction, CATL, and BYD. The Deputy Director emphasized the need for strengthened antitrust enforcement, corporate compliance guidance, and support for enterprises to explore international markets and achieve high-quality development [3][8]

Macro and Strategy Research - The report indicates that the export structure is continuously optimizing, which is expected to support export resilience, although risks from escalating Middle Eastern conflicts may weaken external demand [3] - Domestic demand shows a good start, but short-term incremental deployment may be relatively restrained due to policy emphasis on quality improvement [3] - Input inflation is expected to increase cost pressures on enterprises, posing challenges to corporate operating efficiency in Q2 [3] A-Share Market Liquidity - The report suggests that the relationship between capital supply and stock supply will become more balanced in Q2, with public funds expected to expand further as reforms deepen [4] - The overall funding situation is gradually improving, with policies aimed at increasing the proportion of stock financing leading to further growth in IPOs and refinancing [4] Industry Research - The rise of the "Token Economy" in the AI era is highlighted, with significant benefits expected for the computing power industry chain [7] - The report notes that the price increase trend in PC hardware has spread from memory to CPUs, with Intel and AMD raising prices across their entire CPU range [7] - The AI computing power segment is experiencing rapid growth in token usage, reflecting high demand in inference stages, which is expected to drive revenue from computing power services [8] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in resource products and high-dividend varieties if geopolitical conflicts persist, while a resolution could revive market risk appetite and catalyze thematic opportunities [5] - Specific areas of focus include the computing power sector driven by the construction of large-scale intelligent computing clusters and the domestic power equipment industry benefiting from policy support and overseas energy transitions [5]

Market Overview - On March 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, the CSI 300 decreased by 1.32%, the STAR 50 dropped by 2.02%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.44%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.34%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.89% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on March 26 were coal (+0.59%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.47%), and banking (+0.37%), while the worst-performing sectors included computers (-2.75%), non-bank financials (-2.74%), telecommunications (-2.35%), environmental protection (-2.33%), and construction decoration (-2.33%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on March 26 was 1.957 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.34 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - The report discusses the challenges faced by the two largest current account surplus countries, China and Japan, in terms of exchange rate dynamics, suggesting that traditional models like purchasing power parity do not adequately explain their currency movements [5] - It highlights that the international balance of payments theory, optimized for actual cash flow, is more applicable to analyze the "surplus without collection" phenomenon in both countries [5] - The report identifies two key factors affecting the conversion efficiency of trade surpluses into cash flows: the mismatch between trade surpluses and cross-border cash flows, and the delay in repatriating export revenues [5] Battery Industry Analysis - The battery industry is experiencing a reversal in supply and demand, with improved market conditions leading to simultaneous increases in volume and price [6] - The demand side is driven by unexpected growth in energy storage battery needs and continued demand from commercial vehicles, while the supply side benefits from the clearing of upstream material capacities and a more favorable competitive environment [6] - Investment opportunities are identified in battery components, separators, lithium carbonate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate, with catalysts including ongoing policy subsidies for energy storage and increasing penetration rates of new energy vehicles [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline on March 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3889.08 points, down 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13606.44 points, down 1.41%, and the ChiNext Index at 3272.49 points, down 1.34% [1] - The North Stock 50 Index also fell by 1.57% [1] Capital Flow - The main capital outflow from the A-share market reached 51.529 billion yuan for the day [2][6] - The CSI 300 index saw a net capital outflow of 17.119 billion yuan, while the ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 19.039 billion yuan, and the STAR Market had a net outflow of 0.247 billion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The electronic industry led the capital outflow with 23.34 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with 17.052 billion yuan, and the computer sector with 13.604 billion yuan [5][10] - The mechanical equipment sector saw a net outflow of 11.352 billion yuan, while the essential services sector had a slight outflow of 9.128 billion yuan [7] Institutional Activity - Institutions showed significant interest in several stocks, with Zhejiang Xineng seeing a net institutional buy of 102.54 million yuan, while Mingyang Smart Energy experienced a net sell of 121.77 million yuan [11][12] - The top five industries with the largest capital outflows included electronics, power equipment, computers, mechanical equipment, and essential services [10] Recent Institutional Focus - Recent institutional ratings and target prices indicate potential upside for several stocks, including Huane International with a target price of 10.00 yuan, representing a 32.80% upside from the latest closing price of 7.53 yuan [14] - Other stocks with favorable ratings include Chongqing Bank and Yunnong Commercial Bank, both rated as "Buy" with significant upside potential [14]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a downturn with total trading volume falling below 2 trillion yuan for the first time in March, indicating a decrease in market activity and increased investor caution [2][5][7] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.08 points, down 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index also saw declines of 1.41% and 1.34% respectively, reflecting a broad market pullback [2][5] - Defensive sectors such as coal, oil and banking showed slight gains, while financial and technology sectors faced significant declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards safer investments [5][7] Bond Market - The government bond futures market saw a comprehensive increase, with the 30-year bond futures rising by 0.22% and the 10-year bond futures increasing by 0.08%, suggesting strong demand for long-term bonds [11] - The central bank continued its liquidity support by conducting a net injection of 2110 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining a stable and accommodative funding environment [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index rose by 0.20%, with energy and chemical products showing notable strength, particularly methanol which surged by 4.74% [9][15] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to keep commodity prices volatile, with energy products likely to experience price support due to ongoing conflicts [15] Trading Hotspots - Key sectors to watch include artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, and consumer goods, driven by policy support and technological advancements [12][14] - The financial sector remains sensitive to trading volume fluctuations in the A-share market, while precious metals are influenced by central bank policies and geopolitical risks [12][14] Summary of Core Thoughts - The market is currently facing profit-taking pressures after recent gains, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties that heighten market volatility [14] - The bond market is expected to maintain a strong and stable outlook due to ongoing liquidity support from the central bank [14] - Commodity markets are likely to experience high volatility, particularly in energy and chemical sectors, influenced by geopolitical developments [14]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing an adjustment pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening lower and showing volatility, primarily due to weak support from heavyweight sectors [5] - The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index have seen larger adjustments, with previously leading sectors such as computing power, CPO, and consumer electronics collectively realizing profits, contributing to the decline [5] Trading Activity - A total of 915 stocks rose, but there is a clear divergence with more stocks declining than rising [6] - Lithium materials stocks, including lithium mines, electrolytes, and membranes, performed well, while the power sector continued to show strength. However, popular sectors like photovoltaic equipment, insurance, wind power, national defense, and AI applications have seen adjustments [7] Capital Flow - The total trading volume in both markets decreased by 10.8%, indicating a shift towards risk aversion among investors, with funds moving from high-valuation tech growth sectors (AI, photovoltaic, telecommunications) to undervalued defensive and cyclical sectors [7] - Institutional investors are reallocating funds significantly from sectors such as electronics, computers, media, and gaming, while increasing positions in energy metals, basic chemicals, and power reform stocks [9] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are entering the market to buy low-priced, small-cap defensive stocks (batteries, lithium mines, power), while reducing exposure to high-valuation tech stocks and speculative themes [9] - The sentiment among retail investors shows that 75.85% are optimistic about the market [10] Positioning - As of March 26, 30.20% of investors increased their positions, while 15.78% reduced their holdings, with another 30.20% remaining neutral [13] - The average position held by investors indicates a significant portion is still holding onto their investments, with 51.66% fully invested and 9.82% in cash [19] Profitability - A survey indicates that 4.35% of investors have achieved over 50% profit, while 4.05% have profits between 20% to 50%. Conversely, 45.05% are facing losses of less than 20% [21]