Group 1: Zinc Market Overview - Zinc prices have entered a downward trend due to a relaxed supply side and disappointing demand expectations in the U.S. macroeconomic environment [1] - The U.S. tariff policy adjustments under the Trump administration are expected to lead to a long-term decline in the dollar, which will positively impact zinc prices [2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production has slightly decreased year-on-year due to declining ore grades, with future increases expected to be limited [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining production is anticipated to recover in the medium to long term, despite recent reductions due to weather and maintenance issues [2] - Domestic zinc smelting output is expected to increase year-on-year, but the growth potential remains limited due to reduced imports from overseas smelters [3] - The overall supply of zinc ore is expected to continue growing, but the year-on-year increase will be relatively modest [2][3] Group 3: Demand Factors - Weak demand is observed in the construction sector, with significant declines in operating rates for cement and asphalt facilities [4] - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with new construction and completion areas showing a year-on-year decline [4] - The automotive sector is seeing growth driven by trade-in policies and promotions, which may support zinc demand in the medium to long term [4] Group 4: Price Outlook - The combination of a declining dollar and resilient macro data is expected to provide some support for zinc prices [5] - However, the ongoing increase in supply coupled with weak demand will lead to a more relaxed supply-demand structure, potentially putting downward pressure on prices [5] - The expected price range for zinc may shift downward, but the space for decline is expected to be narrower than before due to limited supply growth and macroeconomic support [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved the registration of three products, allowing them to be used for futures contract delivery starting from the date of the announcement [1] Group 1: Product Registrations - Jiangsu Binxin Steel Group Co., Ltd. has received approval for the registration of its "Xinyong Special Steel" brand wire rod products [1] - Henan Jinli Jinxin Co., Ltd. has been granted registration for its "Jijin" brand zinc ingots, with a registered production capacity of 100,000 tons, adhering to standard pricing [1] - Yunnan Xinyu Nonferrous Electrolytic Co., Ltd. has had its "Yunxiang" brand tin ingots registered, with a registered production capacity of 6,000 tons, also following standard pricing [1]

证券日报网讯锌业股份（000751）7月29日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前公司没有参与投资 矿业的规划。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the zinc industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and remain bearish in the medium term. The supply is increasing while the demand is in the traditional off - season. Although the short - term inventory accumulation is moderate and the macro - environment provides some support, the long - term excess supply will lead to price pressure. It is advisable to hold short positions in the medium - long term and maintain long - short positions within the quarter [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Market Review**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last week was 22,885, with a weekly increase of 2.65%. The closing price of last night's session was 22,715, with a night - session decline of 0.74%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,829, with a weekly increase of 0.18% [7] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 152,086, an increase of 1,020 compared to the previous week. The position was 129,228, an increase of 13,260. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,275, a decrease of 10,132 compared to the previous week, and the position was 190,675, an increase of 3,903 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,928 to 13,289; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 4,789 to 59,419; social inventory increased by 4,800 to 98,300; LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 to 115,775; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 6,000 [7] - **Fundamental Data and Information**: Imported zinc ore processing fees remained at $55/ton; imported zinc ore smelting profit increased by 73 to - 1,765 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore processing fees remained at 3,800 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 154 to 462 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price increased by 120 to 4,050 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased but remains low [10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short term and at a historical medium level; smelting profit is stable and at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profit is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level; the refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level in the same period; among downstream industries, the galvanized operation rate has increased, while the die - cast zinc operation rate has decreased and is at a medium - low level in history [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: Spot premium has significantly declined, and overseas premium is relatively stable. The structure of LME CASH - 3M has changed significantly [18][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of Shanghai Zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually shifting to a backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: Inventory at a low level shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [33][38] - **Futures**: The domestic position is at a relatively high level in the same period in history [39] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [42][43] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [44] - **Import and Export**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The monthly operation rate of downstream industries has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [56][59] - **Terminal**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural incremental growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - There are fluctuations in European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, which may have an impact on the zinc market [74][75][76]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

在22500点下方横盘了一个季度的沪锌，周五夜盘突然大爆发，期价量价齐升，大涨逾2.5%，触及三个 月多月高位。 一德期货有色研发中心铅锌分析师 张圣涵：近期国内即将发布钢铁、有色等重点行业稳增长方案，国 内"反内卷"政策积极推进，"优结构 淘汰落后产能引发市场对于供给侧改革再次出现预期。同时美联储 降息呼声渐起，海外情绪缓和。宏观偏积极预期使得大批资金涌入前期低估值品种，黑色系走强同时也 带动了锌价上行。 弘业期货金融研究院金属研究员 蔡丽：宏观情绪利好氛围偏高，锌涨幅靠前。上周公布的美国消费数 据表现良好，且通胀数据也相对温和，市场对美经济信心有所修复，且对降息节奏也有所期待。国内方 面，国内反内卷继续推进，淘汰落后产能优化结构存在较大的期待，市场对于锌供应端收缩有所担忧， 不过暂时并没有有色方面具体的优化方案，锌价大涨更多的是市场情绪面带动。宏观面及政策面并未对 锌供需面造成确定性影响。 中银国际期货研究咨询部有色高级研究员 刘超：工信部今日表态，钢铁、有色、石化、建材等十大重 点行业的稳增长方案将在近期落地，并明确"调结构、优供给、淘汰落后"。消息一出，市场对部分品种 供给收缩的预期迅速升温，带动盘面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, the moderate rebound of inflation and the better - than - expected retail data in the US highlighted economic resilience. Domestically, the good performance of H1 GDP was offset by concerns about insufficient policy stimulus in H2. The statement of optimizing supply by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18th ignited market enthusiasm [3][4][11]. - Fundamentally, domestic refinery production increased, with stable operation of new projects, slowdown in processing fee growth, good refinery profits, and sufficient raw materials. The supply was on the rise. The zinc market remained stronger overseas than in China, and imports were difficult to increase. In the demand side, it was the off - season for consumption, and the actual demand was weak. The galvanized plate consumption confidence was boosted, but the actual order increment was limited. The operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide were weak. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the spot premium further declined, while the inventory accumulation slowed down [4]. - Overall, the domestic and foreign macro - environment was moderately positive, and the fundamentals were weak. The market hoped that the supply optimization could improve the surplus situation of the zinc market. In the short term, the zinc price was mainly influenced by macro and policy expectations, and the futures price was expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, it was still unclear how the supply optimization policy would affect the zinc industry chain, so caution was needed when chasing up the price [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE zinc decreased from 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th to 22295 yuan/ton on July 18th, a decline of 85 yuan/ton. LME zinc increased from 2738 dollars/ton to 2824 dollars/ton, an increase of 86 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.17 to 7.89, a decline of 0.28. The SHFE inventory increased by 4649 tons to 54630 tons, the LME inventory increased by 13850 tons to 119100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 60 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2509 first declined and then rebounded. Supported by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the black - series prices rose, which was beneficial to the zinc price. It found support around 22000 yuan/ton and then rebounded slightly, closing at 22295 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. The LME zinc price stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2824 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.14% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream procurement motivation weakened, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc prices and premiums varied in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangdong, and Tianjin [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of July 18th, the LME zinc inventory was 119100 tons, an increase of 13850 tons from last week. The SHFE inventory was 54630 tons, an increase of 4649 tons. As of July 17th, the social inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons from July 10th. The inventory in Guangdong and Tianjin increased significantly, while that in Shanghai decreased slightly [8]. - In the macro - aspect, in the US, the CPI in June increased moderately, the core CPI was lower than expected, the PPI reached a new low, and the retail sales exceeded expectations. There were also various international trade and policy news, such as Trump's tariff - related statements and trade negotiations among countries. In China, the H1 GDP was 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries were about to be introduced [8][9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - As of July 18th, the average weekly TC of domestic Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 7.27 dollars/dry ton to 73.75 dollars/dry ton. Excellon Resources was preparing to restart the production of the Mallay silver - lead - zinc mine in Peru next year, which had produced 6 million ounces of silver, 45 million pounds of zinc, and 35 million pounds of lead from 2012 to 2018 [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, the spot premium, the LME premium, the inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, the processing fees of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the import profit and loss of zinc mines, the domestic refined zinc production, the smelter profit, the net import of refined zinc, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [14][16][17].

Price Overview - On July 15, the mainstream transaction price for 0 zinc in Shanghai ranged from 22,180 to 22,300 CNY/ton, with a premium of 50-60 CNY/ton for the 2508 contract [1] - The national zinc price list shows various prices for 0 zinc ingots, with Shanghai prices at 22,200 CNY/ton and Guangdong at 21,930 CNY/ton [2] Futures Market - The closing price for the main zinc futures contract on July 15 was 22,085 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.54%, with a daily trading volume of 119,038 lots [2] Inventory and Production Insights - As of July 15, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warehouse receipts at 91,975 tons, with a decrease of 2,575 tons in canceled receipts and an increase of 5,200 tons in total zinc inventory to 118,600 tons [3] - A zinc smelting plant in Central China plans a routine maintenance for half a month in August, expected to impact around 1,500 tons, while also planning to increase production capacity by 20,000 tons in Q4 or early next year [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Wenkang Futures, the short-term outlook is influenced by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, leading to heightened expectations for monetary easing and a stronger silver price [4] - Although the photovoltaic industry has a limited consumption share of zinc ingots, recent industrial policies have boosted market bullish sentiment, with polysilicon and other related products performing relatively strongly [4] - The overall commodity market sentiment appears strong, with zinc prices expected to exhibit a volatile trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - A trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. After the reaction of macro - bullish factors, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to changes in social inventory [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium was -$21.64 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 140 yuan per ton to 22,270 yuan per ton, with the premium unchanged at 90 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 150 yuan per ton to 22,200 yuan per ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan per ton to 20 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined by 140 yuan per ton to 22,200 yuan per ton, with the premium unchanged at 20 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On July 7, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton and closed at 22,090 yuan per ton, down 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 160,506 lots, an increase of 6,935 lots, and the open interest was 126,532 lots, a decrease of 1,468 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,040 - 22,360 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 89,100 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 110,600 tons, a decrease of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The absolute price declined, increasing downstream point - pricing enthusiasm and improving market transactions, but the spot premium did not improve significantly. After the absolute price rose, spot market transactions became more sluggish, and the spot premium dropped rapidly [4] - **Supply**: In June, supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The expected output in July remains as high as 590,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. The impact of the smelting strike in Peru overseas has been resolved [4] - **Inventory**: The increase in social inventory has widened, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. The finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has started to decline, and a negative feedback from invisible inventory may occur [4] - **Cost**: The TC at the mine end has further increased, expanding smelting profits and further boosting smelting enthusiasm, resulting in continuous supply pressure [4]

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is experiencing slow inventory accumulation, with short - term price fluctuations and a mid - to long - term bearish outlook. The supply is increasing while the demand is entering the traditional off - season, leading to a potential surplus situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,410 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 0.00%, and the night - session closing price was 22,240 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76%. LmeS - zinc3 last week closed at 2,735.5 dollars/ton, down 1.55% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 153,571 lots, a decrease of 72,253 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 128,000 lots, a decrease of 14,428 lots. For LmeS - zinc3, the trading volume was 4,385 lots, a decrease of 8,080 lots, and the open interest was 205,849 lots, a decrease of 4,129 lots [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 874 tons to 7,246 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 1,731 tons to 45,364 tons. The social inventory increased by 2,900 tons to 82,400 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 6,900 tons to 112,325 tons [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible zinc ingot inventory has increased but remains relatively low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are also stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period [11][12] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level, refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level compared to the same period, and the operation rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have declined and are at a medium - to - low historical level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have recently rebounded from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][17] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [19] - **Inventory**: Inventories are showing a stable upward trend from a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term decrease and at a medium level compared to the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory [20][21][22] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down [29] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [31] - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [34] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [39] - **Downstream**: The monthly downstream operation rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history. The downstream raw material inventory and finished product inventory show different trends [40][41] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [54] 3.6 Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries [56]