Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the short - and long - term due to supply - demand imbalances. Egg prices are also under pressure because of high supply. The oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the second quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be low - level volatile, while the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be stable and upward. Corn prices are expected to be stable and upward in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Category Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.5 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the supply pressure is accumulating. Although the short - term supply pressure is released, the long - term supply is expected to increase from May to September 2024. The demand is weak, and the supply - demand game intensifies [1]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the pig price fluctuates frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. The forward price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the resistance level. The resistance and support levels for the 07 contract are 13700 - 13800 and 13000 - 13100 respectively, and for the 09 contract are 14000 - 14200 and 13300 - 13400 respectively. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (down 0.2 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.3 yuan/jin (stable) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. The high supply situation is not alleviated [2]. - **Price Trend**: The short - term price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for the 06 contract. Adopt a short - selling strategy for the 08 and 09 contracts when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the resistance level of 3750 - 3800 for the 08 contract [2]. Oil Palm Oil - **International Market**: On May 21, the Malaysian palm oil 08 contract closed at 3896 ringgit/ton (down 0.36%). The supply and demand are both weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the 08 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 [2][3][4]. - **Domestic Market**: From May, a large amount of palm oil will arrive in China. The inventory has increased to 35.97 tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [4]. Soybean Oil - **International Market**: The US biodiesel policy is negative for soybean oil. The short - term trend of US soybeans is expected to be volatile, and the 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1040 - 1050 [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 1 million tons per month. The soybean oil inventory has started to increase to 65.63 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **International Market**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The short - term trend of ICE rapeseed is expected to be volatile and upward [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 87 tons. The supply pressure is high in the short - term. If the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Overall Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile in the short - term, trading in the ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Adopt a short - selling strategy with caution at high prices. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil for the 09 contracts [7]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1062.75 cents/bushel (up 9.75 cents). The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2934 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the domestic spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions for the 09 contract in the short - term. Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton (stable) [8]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the price is supported. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy at the lower edge of the range for the 07 contract. Pay attention to the positive spread strategy between the 7 - 9 contracts [8]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (Cents/Bushel) | 1,061.75 | 1,054.25 | 7.50 | | Soybean Meal Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,934 | 2,889 | 45.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/Ton) | 2,880 | 2,880 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (Cents/Bushel) | 460.00 | 454.50 | 5.50 | | Corn Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,324 | 2,312 | 12.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (Cents/Pound) | 49.75 | 49.57 | 0.18 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/Ton) | 8,140 | 8,230 | - 90.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/Ton) | 3,896 | 3,910 | - 14.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 8,600 | 8,650 | - 50.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian Dollar/Ton) | 719.60 | 704.40 | 15.20 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 9,450 | 9,400 | 50.00 | | Egg Main Contract (Yuan/500 Kilograms) | 2,959 | 2,964 | - 5.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/Jin) | 3.00 | 3.05 | - 0.05 | | Pig Futures Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 13,650 | 13,690 | - 40.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/Kilogram) | 14.60 | 14.60 | 0.00 | [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships and price trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand, while egg prices are also pressured by high supply. For oils and fats, the market is in a state of shock, with an expected decline in the second quarter and a potential rebound in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is low - level shock, and it is expected to be stable and strong in the medium - long term. Corn prices are expected to be stable and strong, with short - term support and limited upside in the medium - long term due to substitutes [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 14.9 - 15.4 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the scale enterprise's slaughter plan increased, and the high pig weight led to accumulating supply pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking was approaching, the demand was weak due to hot weather and high pig prices. In the medium - long term, the supply from May to September 2024 was increasing, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter of 2024 - 2025 was still large, with high supply and weak demand [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price rebounds to the pressure level. The pressure level for the 07 contract is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is lowered to 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Sell out - of - the - money call options for the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.3 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the low egg price and approaching Dragon Boat Festival may increase demand, but the large new production in May and non - large - scale old chicken culling led to continuous supply accumulation. In the medium - long term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 corresponds to more newly - laying hens from June to August 2025, and the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 06 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish approach and short when the price rebounds. Pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level for the 08 contract [2]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean oil July contract rose 0.26% to 49.57 cents/lb, following the rise of Malaysian palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil August contract rose 0.67% to 3910 ringgit/ton. Domestic palm oil prices rose 80 - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB April report showed an increase in inventory. In May, the export volume increased, but it was in the seasonal production - increasing period. In China, palm oil will arrive in large quantities from May, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The uncertainty of the US biofuel blending policy, the pressure of the South American old - crop soybean listing, and the good sowing progress of the US new - crop soybean dragged down the performance of US soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to be about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The ICE rapeseed's short - term rise is limited, and the downside space is also small. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level, but if the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils fluctuate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Short cautiously when the price rises. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [7][8]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean 07 contract rose 2.25 cents to 1053 cents/bu. The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2889 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the smooth sowing of US soybeans and the South American bumper harvest suppress the price of US soybeans, and the domestic soybean arrival volume increases. In the medium - long term, the increase in import cost and weather disturbances will drive the domestic soybean meal price to be strong [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, reduce short positions in batches. Go long at low prices in the medium - long term, and pay attention to the 2830 support level [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 20, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, stable [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the increase in traders' selling willingness and the decrease in grass - roots grain sources support the price. In the medium - long term, the new - crop yield is expected to decrease, and the import is decreasing, but the supply of substitutes limits the upside space [9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a stable and strong strategy. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Unit | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two - Day - Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | Cents/bu | 1,054.25 | 1,051.25 | 3.00 | | Soybean Meal Main | Yuan/ton | 2,889 | 2,886 | 3.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | Yuan/ton | 2,880 | 2,920 | - 40.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | Cents/bu | 454.50 | 447.00 | 7.50 | | Corn Main | Yuan/ton | 2,312 | 2,330 | - 18.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | Yuan/ton | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | Cents/lb | 49.57 | 49.48 | 0.09 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | Yuan/ton | 8,230 | 8,210 | 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | Ringgit/ton | 3,910 | 3,884 | 26.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,650 | 8,570 | 80.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | Canadian dollars/ton | 704.40 | 695.30 | 9.10 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 9,400 | 9,400 | 0.00 | | Egg Main | Yuan/500 kg | 2,964 | 2,938 | 26.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | Yuan/jin | 3.05 | 3.10 | - 0.05 | | Live Pig Futures Main | Yuan/ton | 13,690 | 13,685 | 5.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | Yuan/kg | 14.79 | 14.79 | 0.00 | [10]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 20 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳 定；广东 14.7-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。5 月规模企业出栏计划增加， 且生猪体重高位，供应压力累积中，前期二育强势进场，随着部分养殖户加 快出栏节奏，短期供应压力释放。需求端，虽然端午节备货临近，但天气转 热，猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求难有明显增量，不 过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关 注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9 月供应呈增 加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出 栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格 波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall supply pressure of the feed and breeding industry is gradually emerging, with high supply in the short - to - medium term and weak demand, which will put pressure on prices of related products. For pigs, there is a risk of price decline; for eggs, the price is under pressure due to slow capacity clearance; for corn, the price has short - term support and long - term upward drive, but the upside space is limited [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the national spot price was 14.76 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; Henan pig price was 14.91 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week; the quotation of live hog 2509 was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 09 contract was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton from last week. Pig prices fluctuated weakly, and the market was in a stalemate [4][11]. - **Supply Side**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of reproductive sows increased steadily. In the context of stable epidemics, the supply from April to September 2025 showed an increasing trend. Although the production capacity was reduced, the reduction was limited. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter still exists. The number of piglets from November 2024 to February 2025 increased year - on - year, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter was still high. In May, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises increased [4][61]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly slaughter start - up rate increased slightly, but the slaughter volume decreased. It is currently the off - season for consumption. High temperatures have led to a decrease in terminal consumption, and the slaughter volume is difficult to improve under the background of losses for slaughtering enterprises [4][61]. - **Cost Side**: The price of piglets decreased slightly, and the price of binary reproductive sows was stable. The breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased slightly [4][61]. - **Weekly Summary**: In May, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises increased, and the supply pressure was accumulating. The demand was weak, but there was still some secondary fattening. The overall supply - demand game intensified, and pig prices fluctuated frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline due to strong supply and weak demand [4][61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the rebound pressure level. The pressure level for 07 is 13,800 - 14,000, and the support level is 13,200 - 13,300; for 09, the pressure level is 14,300 - 14,500, and the support level is 13,600 - 13,800. Sell out - of - the - money call options for 09 [4][61]. 3.2 Egg - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, up 0.23 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.13 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg contract 2506 closed at 2,894 yuan/500 kg, down 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 54 yuan/500 kg, 61 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday. Egg prices are expected to fall first and then rise next week [5][90]. - **Supply Side**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in May was large, and the slaughter of culled chickens increased but not significantly, so the supply pressure was still high. From February to April 2025, the high number of replenished chicks means more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025. The capacity clearance may take time [5][90]. - **Demand Side**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, low egg prices may stimulate procurement demand. However, high temperatures and humidity in the south are not conducive to egg storage, and the demand is relatively limited [5][90]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short - term, the approaching Dragon Boat Festival may support egg prices, but the high supply is not alleviated, so egg prices are under pressure. In the long - term, the high supply trend is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to near - term culling and raw material cost fluctuations [5][90]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the 06 contract, adopt a wait - and - see strategy; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and wait for a rebound to short. Pay attention to the pressure level of 3,750 - 3,800 for 08, and the impact of feed and culling [5][90]. 3.3 Corn - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the corn平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn contract 2507 closed at 2,335 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 15 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton stronger than last Friday. Corn prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term [6]. - **Supply Side**: As corn prices rose to a high level, traders' willingness to sell increased, increasing the supply. However, the primary grain sales are basically over, and the grain has been transferred to traders. The market is bullish, and traders are firm in their asking prices. At the same time, the inventories at north - south ports are gradually decreasing, which supports the price [6]. - **Demand Side**: The increase in the inventory of livestock and poultry has driven the recovery of feed demand. However, the increase in the price of corn has led to an increase in the procurement of wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. The deep - processing industry is in a loss, with a decline in the start - up rate and limited incremental demand [6]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short - term, the reduction of primary grain sources and the bullish market sentiment support the price. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, driving the price up, but the upside space is limited due to the supply of substitutes [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take a generally bullish view. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level (2,320 - 2,400), and buy at the lower end of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [6].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-16 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 5 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较 上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育 强势进场，部分养殖户预计加快出栏节奏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，猪肉消费转 淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动 进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险， ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 15 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.6-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.1- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，部分养殖户预计节后出 栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增 加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏 损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧， 猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁 母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增 加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强 需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库 以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去 化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍 大，远 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of pigs is increasing and being postponed, leading to downward pressure on pig prices, but the futures market has already factored in the weak expectations, resulting in limited decline. Egg prices are expected to be supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. The short - term outlook for palm oil is weak, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be stronger than palm oil in the short - term. In the long - term, the overall trend of oils is to decline in the second quarter and potentially rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, with a long - term upward trend. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward bias in the long - term, but the upside is limited by substitutes [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Product Pigs - On May 13, the spot prices in different regions were stable. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the supply will increase later. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 is increasing, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to go short on rebounds. The pressure and support levels for 07 and 09 contracts are provided [1]. Eggs - On May 13, egg prices in some regions increased. Short - term price support may come from pre - holiday demand, but long - term supply pressure is significant. The strategy is to short on rebounds for the 06 contract and take a bearish view on the 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm oil**: The production increase in Malaysia is greater than the export increase, and inventory is expected to accumulate. The 07 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term. In China, the inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May to June [4]. - **Soybean oil**: The USDA report is positive, and the reduction of tariffs between China and the US is also positive, but the upside of US soybeans is limited. In China, the inventory is expected to increase due to large imports from May to July [5]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening, and the ICE rapeseed is expected to rebound. In China, the inventory is high, but if the supply tightens, the inventory may gradually decrease [6]. Soybean Meal - The price of US soybeans rebounded on May 12. In the short - term, the domestic price is expected to fall due to increased supply, but in the long - term, it may be strong due to cost and weather factors. The strategy is to go short in the short - term and long in the long - term for the 09 contract [8]. Corn - On May 12, the price in some regions increased, while in others it decreased. In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced supply from farmers, but the upside is limited by demand. In the long - term, the price may rise but is restricted by substitutes. The strategy is to go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - Provides the closing prices, price changes of various futures and spot products on May 12, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and pig prices fluctuate frequently. In the long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices face a downward risk. The overall trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Egg Market**: In the short - term, the egg price is under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure increases, and the far - month valuation is under pressure [2]. - **Oil Market**: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market and international crude oil to fluctuate weakly. In the second quarter, the overall oils are dragged down by the increase in soybean and palm oil arrivals, and may rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to decline with the relaxation of supply and demand. In the long - term, due to increased costs and weather disturbances, the price is expected to be strong [9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, although there is an upward driving force, the upside space is limited due to substitutes [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Secondary fattening entry enthusiasm weakens, and post - festival demand is weak. Long - term: Supply increases from April to September 2024, and the supply pressure is still large in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: The overall trend is weak and volatile, and short positions should be stopped for profit. Long - term: Wait for a rebound to go short at high prices [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: After the May Day holiday, demand falls, and supply accumulates. Long - term: High replenishment volume leads to an increasing supply trend [2]. - **Strategy**: 06 contract: Low - level shock. 08 and 09 contracts: Treat with a bearish logic [2]. Oil - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures rose [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia: Production increases more than exports, and prices are under pressure. China: There is an expectation of inventory recovery and supply loosening in the second quarter [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean futures are under short - term pressure. In China, the supply pressure is large in the second quarter [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening. In China, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease in the second quarter [7]. - **Strategy**: 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Be cautious about shorting palm oil, and wait and see for soybean and rapeseed oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean 07 contract rose. The premium quotation is weak [9]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short - term, supply and demand are loosening, and prices are falling. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: Go short at high prices for the 09 contract. Long - term: Go long at low prices [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 8, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Supply is tight, and prices have support. Long - term: There is an upward driving force, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long, and be cautious about chasing up [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - It shows the prices, price changes of various varieties such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day [11].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 8 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.4- 16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用率已超过一 半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进 场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且 猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍 存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出 情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11- 2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而 上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造 成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月 开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上 限， ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 7 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用 率已超过一半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消 费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥 滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节 奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体 重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注 二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动； 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限， 处 ...