Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and pig prices fluctuate frequently. In the long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices face a downward risk. The overall trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Egg Market**: In the short - term, the egg price is under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure increases, and the far - month valuation is under pressure [2]. - **Oil Market**: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market and international crude oil to fluctuate weakly. In the second quarter, the overall oils are dragged down by the increase in soybean and palm oil arrivals, and may rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to decline with the relaxation of supply and demand. In the long - term, due to increased costs and weather disturbances, the price is expected to be strong [9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, although there is an upward driving force, the upside space is limited due to substitutes [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Secondary fattening entry enthusiasm weakens, and post - festival demand is weak. Long - term: Supply increases from April to September 2024, and the supply pressure is still large in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: The overall trend is weak and volatile, and short positions should be stopped for profit. Long - term: Wait for a rebound to go short at high prices [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: After the May Day holiday, demand falls, and supply accumulates. Long - term: High replenishment volume leads to an increasing supply trend [2]. - **Strategy**: 06 contract: Low - level shock. 08 and 09 contracts: Treat with a bearish logic [2]. Oil - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures rose [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia: Production increases more than exports, and prices are under pressure. China: There is an expectation of inventory recovery and supply loosening in the second quarter [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean futures are under short - term pressure. In China, the supply pressure is large in the second quarter [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening. In China, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease in the second quarter [7]. - **Strategy**: 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Be cautious about shorting palm oil, and wait and see for soybean and rapeseed oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean 07 contract rose. The premium quotation is weak [9]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short - term, supply and demand are loosening, and prices are falling. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: Go short at high prices for the 09 contract. Long - term: Go long at low prices [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 8, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Supply is tight, and prices have support. Long - term: There is an upward driving force, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long, and be cautious about chasing up [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - It shows the prices, price changes of various varieties such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day [11].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 8 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.4- 16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用率已超过一 半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进 场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且 猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍 存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出 情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11- 2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而 上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造 成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月 开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上 限， ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 7 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用 率已超过一半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消 费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥 滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节 奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体 重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注 二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动； 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限， 处 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short - term, the prices of hog, egg, and corn will experience fluctuations. The hog market is under supply pressure with increased supply and weakening demand; the egg market has both supply and demand increasing, with short - term demand supporting prices and long - term supply pressuring prices; the corn market is supported by reduced supply from the grassroots level and decreased imports in the short - term, but faces pressure from deep - processing losses and new wheat substitution in the long - term [6][55][92]. - In the long - term, the hog price is likely to decline due to strong supply and weak demand; the egg price is under pressure from increasing supply; the corn price has an upward drive but its upside is limited by substitutes [6][55][92]. Summary by Catalog 1. Hog 1.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the national hog price was 14.94 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from the end of last month; the Henan hog price was 14.75 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg. The main 09 futures price closed at 13910 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the end of last month, and the 09 contract basis was 840 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton [6]. 1.2 Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, with improved performance. From April to September, the supply is on the rise. The inventory decreased slightly from December 2024 to January 2025, rebounded in February, and decreased by 0.66% month - on - month in March, still 3.56% higher than the normal level. The supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter. The number of piglets increased year - on - year from November 2024 to February 2025, so the second - quarter slaughter pressure is high. The planned slaughter volume of enterprises in April increased month - on - month, the slaughter weight increased, and the fat - to - standard price difference was inverted [6][17]. 1.3 Demand - The monthly slaughter enterprise's开工 rate first decreased and then increased. After the May Day holiday, the pork market demand will weaken, but it will improve near the Dragon Boat Festival. However, the slaughter enterprises are still in loss, and the demand increment is limited. In April, the average daily slaughter of key slaughter enterprises was 121412 heads, up 4.62% from the previous month and 8.52% year - on - year; the slaughter gross profit was - 30 yuan/head, down 4.5 yuan/head from the previous month; the national frozen product inventory was 16.84%, down 0.01% from the end of last month and 0.46% from last year [6]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The monthly piglet price decreased slightly, the breeding sow price was stable, and the breeding profit improved. As of April 30, the 15 - kg piglet sales price was 649 yuan/head, down 10 yuan/head from the end of last month; the binary sow price was 1634 yuan/head, unchanged from the end of last month. The breeding cost of enterprises with 5000 - 10000 sows was 13.31 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of purchasing piglets for breeding was 13.87 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from the previous month. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of hogs was 145.34 yuan/head, up 24.34 yuan/head from the end of last month; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 118.88 yuan/head, up 87.95 yuan/head from the previous month [6]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - Under the background of increased and postponed supply, the hog price is under pressure, but the futures discount has already reflected the weak expectation, so the decline is limited. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting on short positions and short at high prices after a rebound. For the 07 contract, the resistance level is 13800 - 13900, and the support level is 13200 - 13300; for the 09 contract, the resistance level is 14600 - 14700, and the support level is 13700 - 13800. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices, partially stop profiting, and re - enter after a rebound [6]. 2. Egg 2.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the end of March; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The main 06 contract closed at 2942 yuan/500 kg, up 74 yuan/500 kg from the end of March; the main contract basis was 58 yuan/500 kg, 86 yuan/500 kg stronger than at the end of March. The egg price first rebounded and then declined, and the futures followed the spot price [55]. 2.2 Supply - In May, the number of newly - opened laying hens corresponding to the replenishment in January 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, with a large opening volume. Coupled with the non - increasing elimination of old hens, the supply continued to accumulate. In the long - term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 means more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse. In April 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion month - on - month and 0.089 billion year - on - year [55]. 2.3 Demand - In early April, the downstream replenishment demand after the Tomb - sweeping Festival and the approaching May Day holiday boosted the egg price. After the May Day holiday, the channel may have replenishment demand, and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand increases, so the seasonal consumption of eggs improves. As of the end of April, the monthly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 29500 tons, up 1.99% from March [55]. 2.4 Strategy Suggestion - The 06 contract is expected to fluctuate in a range after the May Day holiday. Pay attention to the performance of the 3100 resistance and 2900 support levels. Treat the 08 and 09 contracts with a bearish view in general, and pay attention to the impact of feed and elimination [55]. 3. Corn 3.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2280 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main 2507 contract of corn was 2377 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main contract basis was - 97 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton stronger than at the end of March. The corn price first fluctuated narrowly and then rose rapidly at the end of the month, and the futures contract first fell and then rose [92]. 3.2 Supply - The grassroots grain sales are basically over, and the grain source has transferred to the trading end. Traders are reluctant to sell, and the supply is tight, which supports the price. However, after the price rises in May, traders' willingness to sell at high prices may increase, and there is a demand for making room for wheat in North China, which will increase the supply periodically. In March, the corn import was 80000 tons, the same as the previous month and a 95.3% year - on - year decrease. The import of international grains decreased year - on - year [92]. 3.3 Demand - The inventory of hogs and poultry is increasing, which drives the recovery of feed demand. Although wheat substitution has an impact on corn feed demand, it has not been carried out on a large scale, and the cost - effectiveness of corn is still high. The deep - processing industry is in loss, the operating rate has declined, and the demand increment is limited. As of April 25, the weekly feed corn inventory days were 35.74 days, an increase of 2.15 days from the end of March; the operating rate of sample deep - processing enterprises was 58.37%, a decrease of 5.45% from the end of March [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - Generally, take a stable - to - strong view. Wait for the futures to pull back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices. For the 07 contract, pay attention to the 2400 resistance and 2280 - 2300 support levels; for the 09 contract, pay attention to the 2320 - 2330 support level [92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing various challenges and opportunities. In the short - term, most products show a trend of volatile fluctuations, while in the long - term, the supply and price trends of different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, consumption, and policy [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.3 - 14.9 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.6 - 15.2 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.2 - 16 yuan/kg, all stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the reduction of supply by large - scale enterprises at the end of the month and the resistance of small farmers support the price, but the increase in supply from secondary fattening and the weak demand limit the price increase. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The overall pig price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. Short - term short positions can be gradually stopped for profit, and short positions can be opened on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options on contracts 07 and 09 and take profit partially [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, and in Beijing 3.39 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the high price restricts the price increase, but the holiday demand and low inventory support the price. After the holiday, the price may be under pressure. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase, but the impact of old chicken culling needs to be noted [2]. - **Strategy**: For contract 06, hold a light position during the May Day holiday. Contracts 08 and 09 are considered bearish in the long - term, and pay attention to feed and culling factors [2]. Oil - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean oil主力 contract 07 fell 2.26% to 49.32 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil主力 contract 07 fell 0.53% to 3940 ringgit/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: For palm oil, the export increased in April, but the production also increased, and the inventory is expected to rise. In China, the supply and demand are both weak in April, but the supply will increase in May. For soybean oil, the South American supply is large in the second quarter, and the domestic supply will increase in the future. For rapeseed oil, the supply in Canada is tight, and the domestic inventory will gradually decrease [4][5][6]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for contracts 09 of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil, and pay attention to the pressure levels [7]. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1052.5 cents/bushel, and the domestic M2509 contract closed at 2964 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply will increase with the arrival of soybeans and the increase in oil mill operation rate, and the price will decline. In the long - term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price up [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: short on rebounds for contract 09. Long - term: long on dips, and pay attention to the support level. Do long - short spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [7]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On April 29, the purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2406 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, but the market is optimistic about the future. In the long - term, the production reduction and decrease in imports drive the price up, but the substitutes limit the upside [7]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish in general, wait for dips to go long, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of most futures products showed fluctuations. For example, the CBOT soybean active contract fell 8.75 cents/bushel, the soybean meal主力 contract fell 21 yuan/ton, and the CBOT corn active contract fell 12 cents/bushel [8].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 研究员 叶 天 咨询电话：027-65777093 从业编号：F03089203 投资咨询编号：Z0020750 4 月 29 日辽宁现货 14.3-15 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6- 15.2 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上日稳 定；广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价北涨南稳。月底月 初规模企业缩量、散户抗价情绪仍存，支撑价格，但前期二育强势进场，二 育栏舍利用率已超过一半，部分养殖户预计五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂 以及成本提升，二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，五一假 期备货需求小幅增加，但猪价偏高，消费处于淡季，屠企利润仍亏损，需求 增量有限，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with each product facing different market conditions. For example, in the short term, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as holidays, production, and consumption, showing a trend of high - level volatility; in the long term, factors such as production capacity changes, weather, and policy will have an impact on prices [1][2][5][6]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Current Situation**: On April 24, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14.4 - 15.1 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.6 - 15.3 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg. The price in the morning was stable with a slight downward trend. The supply in April continued to increase, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs continued to narrow. The demand was limited by the high price and off - peak consumption season [1]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased slowly, and the production performance improved. From April to September 2025, the supply showed an increasing trend. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year. The supply pressure in the second quarter was still high, and the pig price was at risk of decline under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Starting from December 2024, the pig production capacity was reduced, but the reduction range was limited [1]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of increased and postponed supply, the pig price rebound was under pressure, but the decline of the futures price was also limited due to the early realization of weak expectations. For the 07 contract, the pressure level was 13800 - 14000, and the support level was 13300 - 13400; for the 09 contract, the pressure level was 14600 - 14800, and the support level was 13800 - 14000. It was advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options for the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. Egg - **Current Situation**: On April 24, the price of eggs in Shandong Dezhou was 3.3 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.7 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. The approaching May Day holiday increased the terminal consumption expectation and supported the egg price, but the supply was relatively sufficient due to the large number of laying hens starting to lay eggs and the slow elimination of production capacity [2]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: High breeding profits drove high enthusiasm for replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025, resulting in an increase in the number of newly - opened laying hens in the second quarter. The supply was expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year, but the impact of the elimination of old hens on the phased supply needed to be noted [2]. - **Strategy**: The 06 contract was slightly at a discount to the spot price, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The 08 and 09 contracts were bearish in the long - term logic, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and the elimination of hens [2]. Oil - **Current Situation**: On April 23, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 0.98% to 48.47 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.71% to 4035 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price changed by 20 - 100 yuan/ton to 8890 - 9270 yuan/ton, the soybean oil price rose 50 - 60 yuan/ton to 8090 - 8390 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil price rose 10 yuan/ton to 9420 - 9780 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian inventory started to rise in March, and the production continued to increase in April. Although the export was strong, the market was still trading the future production increase expectation. In the short term, the 07 contract of Malaysian palm oil was expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, the price was likely to decline from May to July [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The South American soybean supply pressure was huge in the second quarter, but factors such as Sino - US negotiations, the improvement of US biodiesel demand, and the decrease in the sowing area of new - season US soybeans were in a game. The 07 contract of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate around 1050 in the short term. The domestic soybean oil supply pressure was huge in the second quarter, and the price was likely to fall first and then rise from July to September [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed market was in a high - level shock. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level, and the short - term supply pressure was still large. After the opening of Australian rapeseed imports, the shortage of long - term rapeseed supply was expected to be partially alleviated, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, it was advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term. For the spread trading, it was advisable to expand the spread of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil [8]. Soybean Meal - **Current Situation**: On April 23, the US soybean 07 contract rose 4.25 cents to 1050.25 cents/bushel. The domestic spot basis strengthened significantly, and the 05 contract price also rose. The short - term price was expected to remain strong due to the low inventory, but there was a risk of a high - level decline as the soybean arrival increased at the end of April [8]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: Tariff policies led to an increase in the cost of importing US soybeans and a decrease in the supply. The domestic market would transfer more positions to South America, which was expected to drive up the prices of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the long term. The sowing area of US soybeans was expected to decrease, and the domestic soybean meal price was expected to be strong in the long term [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, it was advisable to be short at high prices in the short term, paying attention to the 3150 pressure level, and be long at low prices in the long term, paying attention to the 2900 support level. For the spread trading, it was advisable to do long - short spreads for the 5 - 9, 7 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [8]. Corn - **Current Situation**: On April 23, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2210 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2250 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose 10 yuan/ton to 2366 yuan/ton. The supply and demand game in the market intensified, but the market was still optimistic about the future price [9]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: The new - season corn production was expected to decrease, and the import continued to decrease, which provided an upward driving force for the price. However, the reduction in production might be less than expected, and the price increase space was limited due to factors such as the decrease in planting costs and the supply of substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend was expected to be stable and slightly strong. It was advisable to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the 2280 support level of the 07 contract [9].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 17 日辽宁现货 14.4-15 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.6-15.3 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.5-14.9 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 15.1-15.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价趋稳。4 月生猪供应增加，且生猪体重 偏高，目前肥标价差收缩，前期压栏以及二育养殖户出栏意愿增强，而终端 消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压。但行业有利润，规模企业多 控重出栏，且肥标价差仍为正，养殖端惜售、二次育肥逢低进场仍存以及中 央冻猪肉储备带动屠企分割入库需求，均支撑价格，短期猪价震荡整理，关 注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈 增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度 出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局 下，猪价下跌风险加剧，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品入库以及饲料价 格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑，2 月回升，接近均衡区间上 限，供应压力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term price of live pigs will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg, but in the medium - to - long - term, due to increased supply and weak demand, the risk of price decline intensifies. Egg prices are under pressure in the short - term, and the supply will continue to increase in the long - term. For oils, they may rise slightly in the short - term and decline in the second quarter, then rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is supported, but the 05 and 07 contracts have limited upside space, while the 09 contract is bullish. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend, with limited upside space in the long - term [1][2][5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 10, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. In April, the supply of live pigs increased, with the planned slaughter volume of key provincial breeding enterprises up 3.25% month - on - month. The short - term price will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg. In the medium - to - long - term, from April to September 2024, the supply will increase, and the price decline risk intensifies. The strategy is to sell short on rebounds, and sell out - of - the - money call options for 07 and 09 contracts [1]. Eggs - On April 10, the price in Shandong Dezhou was stable, while the price in Beijing increased. In April, the supply pressure is large, but the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase in the second quarter and the upward trend in the second half of the year may be hard to reverse. For the 05 contract, non - holders should be cautious about shorting, and the far - month contracts are under pressure [2]. Oils Palm Oil - On April 9, the Malaysian palm oil futures price fell. The export in March increased slightly, but the production increased more, and the inventory is expected to rise. The short - term price may rebound slightly, and the 06 contract should focus on the 4000 support level. In the long - term, the price is likely to decline [5]. Soybean Oil - Although the US may increase biodiesel blending, the overall fundamentals are bearish. The short - term price of US soybeans is weak, and the domestic soybean oil price may be boosted in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price may first fall and then rise in the long - term [6]. Rapeseed Oil - The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected. The domestic supply pressure is large in April, but the inventory may start to decline in May. In the long - term, the price is expected to stop falling and rebound [7]. - Overall, domestic oils may rise slightly in the short - term, with rapeseed oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil and palm oil. In the long - term, they may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to wait and see for the 09 contracts and focus on the spread - widening strategy of the 09 rapeseed - palm oil spread [8]. Soybean Meal - On April 9, the US soybean futures price rose. The short - term price of domestic soybean meal is supported, but the 05 and 07 contracts have limited upside space due to large supply from April to July. The 09 contract is bullish in the long - term. The strategy is to be cautious about chasing long for 05 and 07 contracts, and go long on the 09 contract [8]. Corn - On April 9, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, while the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao decreased. The short - term price has support, and in the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to be bullish on the overall trend, buy on dips for the 05 contract, and focus on the 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 positive spreads [9][10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices and daily changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on different trading days [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily insights on the feed and aquaculture industry, covering various products such as live pigs, eggs, oils, soybean meal, and corn. It analyzes the current market situation, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - **Spot Price**: On April 8, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. The price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.3 - 15 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.1 - 15.6 yuan/kg [1]. - **Market Analysis**: China's 34% counter - tariff on US imports from April 10 has limited direct impact on the pork market as the domestic pork import accounts for only about 5% and the US share is less than 1%. Currently, the industry still has breeding profits. In the short - term, large - scale farms control the weight of pigs for sale, and the low - price entry of secondary fattening and low slaughter inventory support the price. However, the price is under pressure due to cautious secondary fattening after price increases, increased large - pig sales, and limited terminal consumption. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply from April to September is expected to increase, and the price may fall back to the cost level. The forward price is also under pressure [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures are at a discount, reflecting a weak expectation. The general direction is to go short on rebounds. For the 05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at 13,500 - 13,600; for the 07 contract, 13,600 - 13,800; and for the 09 contract, 14,300 - 14,500. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. Eggs - **Spot Price**: On April 8, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in Beijing it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In April, the supply pressure is large due to the increasing number of old hens undergoing molting and newly - hatched chickens starting to lay eggs. The egg price is under pressure, but the increased culling of old hens and the digestion of inventory have marginally improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the high breeding profit from December 2024 to February 2025 led to high replenishment enthusiasm, resulting in more newly - laying hens in the second quarter. The supply increase trend in the second half of the year may be difficult to reverse [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 contract on the futures market has a slight premium over the spot. For non - holders, be cautious about shorting. The 08 and 09 contracts are considered bearish in general, but pay attention to the impact of feed costs and culling [2]. Oils - **Futures Price Movement**: On April 7, the US soybean oil May contract fell 1.14% to 45.20 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil June contract fell 3.40% to 4,182 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price fell 410 - 460 yuan/ton, soybean oil 150 - 250 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 250 - 280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Trump's tariff policy has increased the global economic recession expectation, dragging down the oil market. In Malaysia, the March export increased by 0.4 - 3.9% month - on - month, but the production increased by 5.10 - 9.48%. The inventory is expected to rise. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly. In China, the supply - demand is in a tight balance in the short - term, but the price may decline in the long - term [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Although the US may increase the biodiesel blending ratio, the overall fundamentals are bearish. After the mutual tariff imposition, the domestic import of US soybeans incurs heavy losses, and the South American supply pressure is large. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In China, the soybean and soybean oil inventories are decreasing, but the supply pressure will increase in the second quarter. The price may first fall and then rise in the long - term [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The uncertainties in the relations between the US, Canada, and China have affected the Canadian rapeseed export. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the supply pressure will ease after May. In the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is expected to stop falling and rebound [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the festival, domestic oils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil relatively strong. In the second quarter, the overall oil price may decline, and then rebound in the third quarter. Temporarily observe the 05 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the support levels. Close the spread - widening position of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil [8]. Soybean Meal - **Futures and Spot Price**: On April 7, the US soybean 05 contract rose 6 cents to 983 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal spot price in the East China region was 3,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of 05 + 220 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: China's tariff policy on US imports has a limited direct impact on soybean meal before July, but it may push up the bottom price of the 05 and 07 contracts due to sentiment. The abundant supply from South America will limit the upward space. In the long - term, the tariff will increase the import cost and tighten the supply, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about going long on the 05 and 07 contracts. Go long on the 09 contract at low prices. Do a reverse spread on the 7 - 9 contract and a positive spread on the 9 - 1 contract. For spot enterprises, be cautious about arranging the basis from May to September, and price at low levels if there is an existing basis. Arrange the basis after September according to the crushing profit or use the 9 - 1 positive spread [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On April 7, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,230 yuan/ton. The purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2,334 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, there is still a selling demand from the grass - roots level, and the port inventory is high, putting pressure on the spot price. However, the market sentiment is bullish, and the downstream has replenishment demand. In the long - term, the corn production in the 24/25 season has decreased, and the import has continued to decline, but the supply is supplemented by substitutes, limiting the upward space [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Generally, be bullish on the corn market. Look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on pullbacks, and pay attention to the 2,250 support level. Do positive spreads on the 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 contracts [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, live pigs, etc. on the previous and the day before the previous trading days [11].