Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pig price will fluctuate and adjust with a risk of decline; in the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large and the forward price rebound is under pressure. Egg prices are under pressure in the third quarter and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. Palm oil shows short - term rebound but has limited long - term upside. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil also have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and trend moderately stronger in the long - term. Corn prices are expected to be moderately stronger, with short - term support and long - term upward drive but limited upside due to substitutes [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Spot price**: On June 4, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.1 - 14.3 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.2 - 15.8 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Market situation**: In June, the pig supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the overall consumption is weak. However, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and frozen product inventory entry still exists, limiting the decline of pig prices. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is at a low level and fluctuates in the short - term. Wait to short at the resistance level after the rebound. The resistance and support levels for different contracts are given [1]. 2. Egg - **Spot price**: On June 4, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.7 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Market situation**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand weakens, and the egg price support is limited. In the medium - term, the supply in the future may increase due to high replenishment in March - April 2025. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, be bearish in general; for the 10 contract, look for long opportunities at low prices [2]. 3. Oil Palm oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 1.44% to 3934 ringgit/ton [2]. - **Market situation**: In May, the export of Malaysian palm oil improved, the production increase slowed down, and the inventory accumulation was expected to slow down. The inventory in Indonesia decreased, and India has the demand to replenish inventory. In the long - term, the production will increase seasonally until October. In China, the palm oil inventory has recovered and will continue to rise [3][4]. - **Strategy**: The 08 contract may rebound in the short - term, pay attention to the performance at the 8000 resistance level. The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8300 [4][7]. Soybean oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.25% to 46.81 cents/pound [2]. - **Market situation**: The US biofuel blending plan is about to be announced. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and the soybean oil inventory has increased, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7500 - 8000 [7]. Rapeseed oil - **Market situation**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export is strong, and the old - crop inventory is declining. The new - crop sowing is normal. In China, the inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure is large. Pay attention to the changes in China - Canada relations [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9500 [7]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean 07 contract rose 7.25 cents to 1040.75 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2935 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate. In China, the soybean arrival increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price will trend moderately stronger [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will be range - bound in the short - term, and go long on dips after mid - June [8]. 5. Corn - **Spot price**: On June 3, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2460 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the supply increases, but the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside is limited due to substitutes [8]. - **Strategy**: Be moderately bullish. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level, and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends in the short, medium, and long term. The prices of most products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies [1][2][4]. - In the short term, most products show a trend of price fluctuations and range - bound trading, while in the medium and long term, the prices are influenced by factors such as production capacity changes, consumption trends, and weather conditions [1][2][7]. Summary by Categories Pig - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 14.8 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.4 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15.2 - 15.6 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The supply pressure is gradually released, and the market has a strong sentiment to support prices. The demand for pre - holiday stocking increases, but the consumption off - season and losses of slaughterhouses limit the demand increase. The short - term price is supported at a low level and the volatility intensifies [1]. - **Medium - and Long - term Outlook**: From May to September 2024, the supply increases. From November 2024 to February 2025, the pressure on second - quarter shipments is large. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price still has a downward risk. From December 2024, the production capacity is reduced, but the reduction is limited, and the long - term price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is in a low - level range. The 07 contract has a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13100; the 09 contract has a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13300 - 13400. Wait for the price to rebound to the pressure level and then go short [1]. Egg - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.8 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.09 yuan/jin (down 0.09 yuan/jin) [2]. - **Short - term Outlook**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is relieved, which supports the egg price. However, the supply pressure is still large, and the weather is unfavorable for storage, so the price is under pressure [2]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: From June to August 2025, the number of newly - laid hens will increase, and the supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the newly - laid hens may decrease month - on - month. Pay attention to the molting, elimination, and chicken diseases in the third quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, be cautious about short - selling after June and pay attention to the pressure performance at 3020 - 3060; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a short - biased approach and wait for the price to rebound to go short. The 08 contract pays attention to the pressure at 3750 - 3800; the 10 contract pays attention to the opportunity to go long at a low price [2][4]. Oil Palm Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national palm oil price changed by 20 - 80 yuan/ton to 8610 - 8710 yuan/ton [4]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From May 1 - 25, the export data improved, and the production increase slowed down. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected, but the long - term inventory accumulation is a trend. The upgrade of the biodiesel blending standard will benefit domestic consumption. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the 08 contract will operate in the range of 3800 - 4000 [5]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: The arrival volume in May and June is expected to be more than 200,000 tons each month. The inventory recovery is slow, but the inventory is expected to recover in the future [5]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national soybean oil price changed by 0 - 10 yuan/ton to 7920 - 8030 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The postponement of tariffs on the EU reduces macro risks. The heavy rainfall in Argentina and the possible slowdown of sowing in the US support the price of US soybeans, but the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies and the fast sowing progress limit the increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short term [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The arrival volume of soybeans from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the future inventory is expected to increase [6]. Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national rapeseed oil price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 9400 - 9830 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is strong, and the old - crop inventory continues to decline. The new - crop sowing is accelerating, and the passage of the 45Z Act is beneficial. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The current inventory is at a historically high level, and the supply pressure is large. The anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed restricts procurement, and the inventory is expected to decrease in the future. Pay attention to the result of the anti - dumping investigation [7]. - **Overall Strategy**: In the short term, the overall trend of oils is fluctuating. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils operate in the ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Pay attention to the strategy of widening the price differences of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm, rapeseed - palm, and rapeseed - soybean oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the domestic soybean meal futures M2509 contract closed at 2962 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The smooth sowing of US soybeans and the bumper harvest in South America suppress the price, but the low carry - over inventory provides support. The domestic supply increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong [8]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The import cost of US soybeans increases, and the supply in the domestic off - season decreases. The domestic price is expected to be strong due to the increase in cost and the tightening of supply [8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract operates in the range of [2900, 3000] in the short term and goes long on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the purchase price of new corn in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (stable), and the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2456 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The increase in supply slows down the price increase, but the reduction of grassroots grain sources and the reduction of inventory support the price [9]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply in the 24/25 season is expected to be tight, but the supply of substitutes limits the price increase [9]. - **Strategy**: The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and goes long on dips at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9][10]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Unit | Last Trading Day's Closing Price | Two Trading Days Ago's Closing Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.75 | 1,048.50 | 2.25 | | Soybean Meal Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,962 | 2,961 | 1.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | (Yuan/ton) | 2,930 | 2,940 | - 10.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | (US cents/bushel) | 447.00 | 450.75 | - 3.75 | | Corn Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,332 | 2,325 | 7.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 2,320 | 2,320 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | (US cents/pound) | 48.39 | 48.88 | - 0.49 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | (Yuan/ton) | 8,050 | 8,050 | 0.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | (Ringgit/ton) | 3,928 | 3,899 | 29.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 8,700 | 8,600 | 100.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | (Canadian dollars/ton) | 715.50 | 730.80 | - 15.30 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 9,420 | 9,410 | 10.00 | | Egg Main | (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,916 | 2,882 | 34.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | (Yuan/jin) | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 | | Live Pig Futures Main | (Yuan/ton) | 13,640 | 13,560 | 80.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | (Yuan/kg) | 14.59 | 14.59 | 0.00 | [11]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 29 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.4-14.8 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳定为主。5 月中下 旬养殖端加快出栏节奏，生猪出栏体重高位回落，供应压力释放，月底月末 养殖端或惜售，且局部地区调运政策影响，市场挺价情绪增强，低位二次育 肥滚动进场仍存。需求端，临近端午节备货需求增加，不过猪肉消费淡季， 且屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，短期供需继续博弈，猪价低位存支撑， 震荡加剧，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能 繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 5-9 月供应呈增加态 势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压 力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价 仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动 对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润， 去 ...

5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall short - term trend of the feed and aquaculture industry is volatile, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand patterns of various products will change, affecting price trends. Strategies for different products are also proposed based on these analyses [1][2][4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Price**: On May 27, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.6 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day), in Henan 14.2 - 14.8 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg (stable). The national pig price was stable with a slight upward trend in the morning [1]. - **Short - term**: The supply pressure is gradually released as the slaughter weight has declined. The market's price - supporting sentiment has increased, and there is still low - level secondary fattening. The demand for the Dragon Boat Festival is increasing, but it is the off - season for pork consumption, and the demand increase is limited. The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the pig price has support at the low level but with intensified fluctuations [1]. - **Medium - to - long term**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of fertile sows increased slowly, and the production performance improved. From May to September 2024, the supply showed an increasing trend. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter was still high. The pig price is still at risk of falling under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From December 2024, the pig production capacity has been reduced, but the reduction range is limited, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price has already reflected the weak expectation in advance, with support at the bottom. But the price is still under pressure due to increased and postponed supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. For the 07 contract, the pressure level is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Short positions can be opened when the price rebounds to the pressure level [1]. 2. Eggs - **Price**: On May 27, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day), and in Beijing 3.2 yuan/jin (up 0.11 yuan/jin) [2]. - **Short - term**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the procurement demand from channels and downstream may increase. The acceleration of culling has relieved the supply pressure, which is expected to support the egg price. However, the supply pressure is still large due to the large number of newly - opened chickens in May, and the unfavorable weather in the south for egg storage and the approaching rainy season after the festival make the channel procurement cautious, so the demand is relatively limited. The egg price is under pressure despite the festival's positive impact [2]. - **Medium - term**: The high number of chicks replenished from February to April 2025 corresponds to a large number of newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025. The production capacity clearance may take time, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term**: After the poor breeding profits in the first half of the year, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of newly - opened chickens in the fourth quarter may decrease month - on - month [2]. - **Strategy**: The egg price has support during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. In the third quarter, both supply and demand increase, and interval operations are recommended. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may be relieved. For the 07 contract, be cautious about short - selling after entering June, and pay attention to the performance at the 3020 - 3060 pressure level; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view in general and wait for the price to rebound to open short positions. For the 08 contract, pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level. For the 10 contract, look for long - position opportunities at low prices [2][4]. 3. Oils - **Price**: On May 26, the US soybean oil main contract had no quotation due to a public holiday. The Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 0.05% to 3829 ringgit/ton. The national palm oil price dropped 60 - 360 yuan/ton to 8400 - 8650 yuan/ton, soybean oil price dropped 70 - 100 yuan/ton to 7900 - 8100 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 9350 - 9780 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, which was bearish. From May 1 - 25, the export data improved slightly, with a 7.34 - 11.63% month - on - month increase. The production growth continued to slow down, with only a 0.73% month - on - month increase from May 1 - 25. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected. However, the origin is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage until October, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise, putting pressure on the price. The export tax policies of the main producing countries in June are different: Indonesia raised the export tax, while Malaysia lowered it. The short - term Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range. In China, the palm oil arrivals in May - June are expected to be more than 200,000 tons each month, but the domestic inventory recovery is slow, still at a low level of 338,700 tons as of the week of May 23 [4]. - **Soybean oil**: The EPA denied the biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy has changed again. The excessive rainfall in Argentina and the possible delay of sowing in the US Midwest support the US soybean price. However, the 2026 biofuel blending volume announced by the EPA may be lower than expected, and the 45z Act is yet to be passed by the Senate, so the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy remains, and the pressure of the old - crop South American soybeans limits the rise of the US soybean price. The US soybean 07 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1050 - 1080 range in the short term. In China, the domestic soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach an average of 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and started to rise to 697,200 tons. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to increase due to the large arrivals and rising mill operating rates [4]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The Canadian rapeseed inventory for the 2024/2025 season continues to decline due to strong crushing and export demand. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, but the high - temperature and dry weather in the prairie region has raised drought concerns. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z Act, which is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. The ICE rapeseed is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, but the arrivals of Canadian rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightening expectation remains unchanged, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term trend of oils is expected to be volatile. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to operate in the 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 ranges respectively. Short positions can be opened cautiously when the price rises. The strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils can be long - term concerned [6]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price**: On May 26, the US soybeans were closed due to a public holiday. The soybean meal was relatively strong under the low oil - meal ratio, but the rebound space was limited by the loose spot market expectation. The M2509 contract closed at 2950 yuan/ton, with narrow - range fluctuations. The spot price in East China was 2860 yuan/ton, and the basis was 09 - 90 yuan/ton [6]. - **Short - term**: The US soybean sowing progress is smooth, and the high - yield South American soybeans suppress the US soybean price. However, the low carry - over inventory of US soybeans provides strong support at the bottom. The US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the soybean arrivals are increasing, and the soybeans are entering the inventory accumulation cycle. The mill operating rate has increased significantly, and the spot price is expected to weaken with the loosening of supply and demand. The 09 contract was previously suppressed by the spot market but has obvious bottom support and is expected to return to its fundamental situation and rise in price. Attention should be paid to the US soybean planting weather [6]. - **Long - term**: Although the tariff on imported US soybeans has been significantly reduced, the import cost has still increased, which has reduced the arrivals of US soybeans during the supply season. China has shifted more positions to South America, driving up the forward price in South America. The US soybean is in the sowing stage, and the weather disturbances are increasing. The increase in domestic import cost and the tightening of supply and demand will drive the domestic soybean meal price to rise [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is expected to operate in the [2860, 3000] range in the short term. After mid - June, long positions can be opened when the price pulls back [6]. 5. Corn - **Price**: On May 26, the purchase price of new corn in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, both stable compared to the previous day [7]. - **Short - term**: As the corn price rises to a high level, the willingness of traders to sell has increased, and the market supply has increased, which has slowed down the price increase. However, the farmers' grain sales are basically over, and the grain has been transferred to the trading end. The market is still bullish, and the traders are firm in their asking prices. The inventory in the north - south ports is gradually decreasing, which supports the price. The short - term price has support due to the reduction of grassroots grain sources [7]. - **Long - term**: The 2024/2025 crop year in Northeast and North China may see a reduction in production, and the imported materials have decreased significantly year - on - year. The domestic supply - demand is tightening marginally, which drives the corn price up. However, the policy release and the listing of new - season wheat and other substitutes will further supplement the supply, limiting the upward space of the price. Attention should be paid to the wheat production situation and the mainstream price trend [7]. - **Strategy**: The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level (2300 - 2360), and long positions can be opened at the lower end of the range. Attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the trading end's grain sales rhythm, policy release, and substitute situations [7][8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： ◆鸡蛋： 5 月 23 日山东德州报价 2.8 元/斤，较上日跌 0.1 元/斤；北京报价 3.14 元/ 斤，较上日跌 0.16 元/斤。短期蛋价跌至低位，且鸡蛋性价比尚可，随着端 午临近，渠道及下游采购需求或增加，预计对蛋价形成支撑，但 5 月新开产 量较大，叠加老鸡淘汰未放量，供应持续累积，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存储， 渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体端午节日有利好，但高供 应未缓解下，蛋价走势承压。中长期来看，25 年 2-4 月补栏量依旧较高， 对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能 力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转， 关注近端淘汰情况。短期产能未出清，蛋价走势承压，关注近端淘汰及原料 成本波动扰动。策略建议：06 限仓，观望为主；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 等待反弹逢高做空为主，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰 动。关注消费情况、淘鸡、各环节库存等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花 顺） 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-23 公司资质 长江期货股份 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Haid Group Co., Ltd. has approved a proposal to engage in hedging activities in 2025, allowing for a maximum margin of 3 billion yuan for trading relevant futures and options contracts [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Haid Group was established in 1998 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in November 2009, primarily engaged in feed production and sales, with a focus on commodities like corn, soybean meal, and live pigs [3] - The company has rapidly expanded its business scale, with feed production reaching nearly 1 million tons by 2006, highlighting the increasing impact of feed costs on profitability [3][4] - In 2024, despite intensified industry competition, Haid Group's feed sales are projected to be approximately 26.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 9%, further solidifying its market leadership [4] Group 2: Risk Management and Hedging Strategy - The company has recognized the necessity of using futures tools to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in raw materials, which can fluctuate by over 10% annually [3][5] - Haid Group employs a centralized procurement model for major raw materials, which, combined with hedging operations, enhances procurement advantages and risk control [3][6] - The company has established a unified internal management system that integrates futures and spot business, ensuring that hedging positions do not exceed the scale of actual needs [6] Group 3: Futures Market Engagement - Haid Group began exploring the futures market in 2004 and has since built a dedicated hedging team, leading to significant operational success [4][9] - The company has increasingly utilized basis trading as a risk management strategy, with the proportion of trading completed through this method rising annually since 2013 [8] - The company has effectively managed price risks, with minimal losses from corn market fluctuations due to its disciplined approach to futures trading [8] Group 4: Operational Examples and Impact - In August 2023, Haid Group's trading team executed a sell hedging operation on the C2401 contract, which provided over 100 yuan per ton in price protection against fluctuations in the procurement costs of imported grains [7] - The company has implemented a centralized management system for futures trading accounts, ensuring that all trading activities are overseen by the group's vice president of futures business [9][10] - Haid Group emphasizes the importance of establishing a professional research team to support its hedging activities with fundamental data [10]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the short - and long - term due to supply - demand imbalances. Egg prices are also under pressure because of high supply. The oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the second quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be low - level volatile, while the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be stable and upward. Corn prices are expected to be stable and upward in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Category Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.5 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the supply pressure is accumulating. Although the short - term supply pressure is released, the long - term supply is expected to increase from May to September 2024. The demand is weak, and the supply - demand game intensifies [1]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the pig price fluctuates frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. The forward price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the resistance level. The resistance and support levels for the 07 contract are 13700 - 13800 and 13000 - 13100 respectively, and for the 09 contract are 14000 - 14200 and 13300 - 13400 respectively. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (down 0.2 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.3 yuan/jin (stable) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. The high supply situation is not alleviated [2]. - **Price Trend**: The short - term price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for the 06 contract. Adopt a short - selling strategy for the 08 and 09 contracts when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the resistance level of 3750 - 3800 for the 08 contract [2]. Oil Palm Oil - **International Market**: On May 21, the Malaysian palm oil 08 contract closed at 3896 ringgit/ton (down 0.36%). The supply and demand are both weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the 08 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 [2][3][4]. - **Domestic Market**: From May, a large amount of palm oil will arrive in China. The inventory has increased to 35.97 tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [4]. Soybean Oil - **International Market**: The US biodiesel policy is negative for soybean oil. The short - term trend of US soybeans is expected to be volatile, and the 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1040 - 1050 [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 1 million tons per month. The soybean oil inventory has started to increase to 65.63 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **International Market**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The short - term trend of ICE rapeseed is expected to be volatile and upward [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 87 tons. The supply pressure is high in the short - term. If the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Overall Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile in the short - term, trading in the ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Adopt a short - selling strategy with caution at high prices. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil for the 09 contracts [7]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1062.75 cents/bushel (up 9.75 cents). The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2934 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the domestic spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions for the 09 contract in the short - term. Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton (stable) [8]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the price is supported. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy at the lower edge of the range for the 07 contract. Pay attention to the positive spread strategy between the 7 - 9 contracts [8]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (Cents/Bushel) | 1,061.75 | 1,054.25 | 7.50 | | Soybean Meal Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,934 | 2,889 | 45.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/Ton) | 2,880 | 2,880 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (Cents/Bushel) | 460.00 | 454.50 | 5.50 | | Corn Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,324 | 2,312 | 12.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (Cents/Pound) | 49.75 | 49.57 | 0.18 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/Ton) | 8,140 | 8,230 | - 90.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/Ton) | 3,896 | 3,910 | - 14.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 8,600 | 8,650 | - 50.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian Dollar/Ton) | 719.60 | 704.40 | 15.20 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 9,450 | 9,400 | 50.00 | | Egg Main Contract (Yuan/500 Kilograms) | 2,959 | 2,964 | - 5.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/Jin) | 3.00 | 3.05 | - 0.05 | | Pig Futures Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 13,650 | 13,690 | - 40.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/Kilogram) | 14.60 | 14.60 | 0.00 | [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships and price trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand, while egg prices are also pressured by high supply. For oils and fats, the market is in a state of shock, with an expected decline in the second quarter and a potential rebound in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is low - level shock, and it is expected to be stable and strong in the medium - long term. Corn prices are expected to be stable and strong, with short - term support and limited upside in the medium - long term due to substitutes [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 14.9 - 15.4 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the scale enterprise's slaughter plan increased, and the high pig weight led to accumulating supply pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking was approaching, the demand was weak due to hot weather and high pig prices. In the medium - long term, the supply from May to September 2024 was increasing, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter of 2024 - 2025 was still large, with high supply and weak demand [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price rebounds to the pressure level. The pressure level for the 07 contract is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is lowered to 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Sell out - of - the - money call options for the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.3 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the low egg price and approaching Dragon Boat Festival may increase demand, but the large new production in May and non - large - scale old chicken culling led to continuous supply accumulation. In the medium - long term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 corresponds to more newly - laying hens from June to August 2025, and the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 06 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish approach and short when the price rebounds. Pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level for the 08 contract [2]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean oil July contract rose 0.26% to 49.57 cents/lb, following the rise of Malaysian palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil August contract rose 0.67% to 3910 ringgit/ton. Domestic palm oil prices rose 80 - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB April report showed an increase in inventory. In May, the export volume increased, but it was in the seasonal production - increasing period. In China, palm oil will arrive in large quantities from May, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The uncertainty of the US biofuel blending policy, the pressure of the South American old - crop soybean listing, and the good sowing progress of the US new - crop soybean dragged down the performance of US soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to be about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The ICE rapeseed's short - term rise is limited, and the downside space is also small. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level, but if the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils fluctuate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Short cautiously when the price rises. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [7][8]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean 07 contract rose 2.25 cents to 1053 cents/bu. The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2889 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the smooth sowing of US soybeans and the South American bumper harvest suppress the price of US soybeans, and the domestic soybean arrival volume increases. In the medium - long term, the increase in import cost and weather disturbances will drive the domestic soybean meal price to be strong [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, reduce short positions in batches. Go long at low prices in the medium - long term, and pay attention to the 2830 support level [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 20, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, stable [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the increase in traders' selling willingness and the decrease in grass - roots grain sources support the price. In the medium - long term, the new - crop yield is expected to decrease, and the import is decreasing, but the supply of substitutes limits the upside space [9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a stable and strong strategy. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Unit | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two - Day - Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | Cents/bu | 1,054.25 | 1,051.25 | 3.00 | | Soybean Meal Main | Yuan/ton | 2,889 | 2,886 | 3.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | Yuan/ton | 2,880 | 2,920 | - 40.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | Cents/bu | 454.50 | 447.00 | 7.50 | | Corn Main | Yuan/ton | 2,312 | 2,330 | - 18.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | Yuan/ton | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | Cents/lb | 49.57 | 49.48 | 0.09 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | Yuan/ton | 8,230 | 8,210 | 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | Ringgit/ton | 3,910 | 3,884 | 26.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,650 | 8,570 | 80.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | Canadian dollars/ton | 704.40 | 695.30 | 9.10 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 9,400 | 9,400 | 0.00 | | Egg Main | Yuan/500 kg | 2,964 | 2,938 | 26.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | Yuan/jin | 3.05 | 3.10 | - 0.05 | | Live Pig Futures Main | Yuan/ton | 13,690 | 13,685 | 5.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | Yuan/kg | 14.79 | 14.79 | 0.00 | [10]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 20 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳 定；广东 14.7-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。5 月规模企业出栏计划增加， 且生猪体重高位，供应压力累积中，前期二育强势进场，随着部分养殖户加 快出栏节奏，短期供应压力释放。需求端，虽然端午节备货临近，但天气转 热，猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求难有明显增量，不 过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关 注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9 月供应呈增 加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出 栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格 波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利 ...