1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", and "oscillating strongly" [277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Geopolitical concerns, such as the situation in Ukraine and the potential for increased sanctions on Russia, are major drivers of price volatility. Supply - demand imbalances vary by product, with some facing oversupply issues while others have improving demand [2][3][8]. - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with some products having a weakening or strengthening bias. The market is also affected by seasonal factors, such as pre - holiday stocking and autumn maintenance [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and supply pressure persists. Despite the expected resumption of Iraqi oil exports, the potential for increased restrictions on Russian oil by the US and the uncertainty of sanctions policies are driving price volatility. OPEC+ is accelerating production, and refinery operations are expected to decline, putting downward pressure on prices. The outlook is for weak oscillation, with attention on short - term geopolitical disturbances [2][8]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. However, its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase. The profit margin is compressed, and the supply situation has improved significantly, with the October production plan increasing by 19% year - on - year [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have driven up prices. Although Russian fuel oil exports reached a high in September, geopolitical factors may cause a significant decline in export expectations. Demand is expected to improve, but the impact of geopolitical events on prices is likely to be short - lived [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates upward following crude oil. It faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current low valuation means it will likely follow crude oil price movements [13]. - **Methanol**: Inland olefin procurement continues, and the price oscillates. There is a contradiction between near - term and far - term inventory pressures, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in September - October [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and prices are under long - term pressure along the cost line. Although there are some positive expectations, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses upward price elasticity, and inventory has increased slightly. The price is expected to have limited rebound in the short - term [20][22]. - **PX**: Cost provides support, but the supply - demand outlook is weakening, and processing fees are under pressure. Supply remains high, and the potential for PTA factory production cuts may further affect demand [14][15]. - **PTA**: There are rumors of major PTA manufacturers cutting production to support prices, and processing fees have improved significantly. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention on the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream markets are replenishing stocks before the holiday, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, following raw material prices [22][23]. - **Bottle Chip**: Typhoons have caused short - term plant shutdowns, and supply - demand drivers are limited. The price is expected to oscillate, following raw material prices [23][24]. - **PP**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention on the support level of previous lows. Supply is increasing more than demand, and inventory pressure remains [31]. - **Propylene**: It follows the fluctuations of PP and oscillates in the short - term [32]. - **Plastic**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with short - term support from factors such as reduced inventory pressure in the US and pre - holiday replenishment demand [30]. - **Pure Benzene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. There is difficulty in reducing inventory before the end of the year, especially in October when import pressure is high [17][19]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. High inventory levels in the upstream and downstream are difficult to reduce, and the cost of pure benzene may drag down prices [19][20]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and the price oscillates. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, factors such as production cuts in September and increased downstream procurement at low prices are providing some support [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are strong expectations but weak reality, and the price oscillates. The demand outlook is positive, but there are still short - term supply pressures [34]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various products show different trends, with some narrowing and others widening. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has decreased by 20, while the 5 - 9 month spread of PP has increased by 17 [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of different products also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 60 with a change of - 48, and the number of warehouse receipts is 55980 [36]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and PTA and PX, show different degrees of change, reflecting the relative price relationships between different products [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships and price trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand, while egg prices are also pressured by high supply. For oils and fats, the market is in a state of shock, with an expected decline in the second quarter and a potential rebound in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is low - level shock, and it is expected to be stable and strong in the medium - long term. Corn prices are expected to be stable and strong, with short - term support and limited upside in the medium - long term due to substitutes [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 14.9 - 15.4 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the scale enterprise's slaughter plan increased, and the high pig weight led to accumulating supply pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking was approaching, the demand was weak due to hot weather and high pig prices. In the medium - long term, the supply from May to September 2024 was increasing, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter of 2024 - 2025 was still large, with high supply and weak demand [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price rebounds to the pressure level. The pressure level for the 07 contract is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is lowered to 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Sell out - of - the - money call options for the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.3 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the low egg price and approaching Dragon Boat Festival may increase demand, but the large new production in May and non - large - scale old chicken culling led to continuous supply accumulation. In the medium - long term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 corresponds to more newly - laying hens from June to August 2025, and the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 06 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish approach and short when the price rebounds. Pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level for the 08 contract [2]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean oil July contract rose 0.26% to 49.57 cents/lb, following the rise of Malaysian palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil August contract rose 0.67% to 3910 ringgit/ton. Domestic palm oil prices rose 80 - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB April report showed an increase in inventory. In May, the export volume increased, but it was in the seasonal production - increasing period. In China, palm oil will arrive in large quantities from May, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The uncertainty of the US biofuel blending policy, the pressure of the South American old - crop soybean listing, and the good sowing progress of the US new - crop soybean dragged down the performance of US soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to be about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The ICE rapeseed's short - term rise is limited, and the downside space is also small. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level, but if the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils fluctuate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Short cautiously when the price rises. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [7][8]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean 07 contract rose 2.25 cents to 1053 cents/bu. The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2889 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the smooth sowing of US soybeans and the South American bumper harvest suppress the price of US soybeans, and the domestic soybean arrival volume increases. In the medium - long term, the increase in import cost and weather disturbances will drive the domestic soybean meal price to be strong [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, reduce short positions in batches. Go long at low prices in the medium - long term, and pay attention to the 2830 support level [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 20, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, stable [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the increase in traders' selling willingness and the decrease in grass - roots grain sources support the price. In the medium - long term, the new - crop yield is expected to decrease, and the import is decreasing, but the supply of substitutes limits the upside space [9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a stable and strong strategy. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Unit | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two - Day - Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | Cents/bu | 1,054.25 | 1,051.25 | 3.00 | | Soybean Meal Main | Yuan/ton | 2,889 | 2,886 | 3.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | Yuan/ton | 2,880 | 2,920 | - 40.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | Cents/bu | 454.50 | 447.00 | 7.50 | | Corn Main | Yuan/ton | 2,312 | 2,330 | - 18.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | Yuan/ton | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | Cents/lb | 49.57 | 49.48 | 0.09 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | Yuan/ton | 8,230 | 8,210 | 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | Ringgit/ton | 3,910 | 3,884 | 26.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,650 | 8,570 | 80.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | Canadian dollars/ton | 704.40 | 695.30 | 9.10 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 9,400 | 9,400 | 0.00 | | Egg Main | Yuan/500 kg | 2,964 | 2,938 | 26.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | Yuan/jin | 3.05 | 3.10 | - 0.05 | | Live Pig Futures Main | Yuan/ton | 13,690 | 13,685 | 5.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | Yuan/kg | 14.79 | 14.79 | 0.00 | [10]