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广发期货日评-20250625
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 09:34
FF REAL STEP | | 原油 | SC2508 | 地缘风险溢价回落带动盘面偏弱运行,短期需关注基本面因素 对后市的影响 | 盘面风险较大,短期建议观望为主,WTI下方支撑 给到[62,63],布伦特上端压力在[64,65],SC压 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 力位仍在在 [490,500] | | | 尿素 | UR2509 | 短期内需求难以支撑高价,关注7月农业需求及出口情况 | 短期建议等待,主力合约支撑位调整到1645- 1680 | | | PX | PX2509 | 地缘溢价回落油价大跌,短期PX受拖累 | 短期谨慎偏空对待,关注6500附近支撑;PX-SC | | | | | | 价差做缩策略离场 | | | PTA | TA2509 | 地缘溢价回落油价大跌,短期PTA受拖累。 | 谨慎偏空对待,关注4600附近支撑;TA9-1在 | | | | | | 200以上反套为主 | | 能源 | 短纤 | PF2508 | 工厂减产预期下,加工费存修复预期 | PF单边同PTA; PF盘面加工费低位做扩为主 | | 化工 | ...
合成橡胶日度报告-20250623
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 11:27
Group 1: Market Overview - The opening price of the main contract BR2507 of synthetic rubber today was 11,750 yuan/ton, with the highest price during the session at 11,810 yuan/ton, the lowest at 11,665 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 11,770 yuan/ton. The daily trading volume was 81,100 lots, and the open interest was 15,100 lots [3] Group 2: Key Influencing Factors Analysis - The aftermath of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, but the situation has not further escalated, and its driving effect on the market has weakened [3] - Due to the replenishment of raw material butadiene, it failed to significantly boost the upward movement, and the cost side did not strongly support synthetic rubber [4]
饲料养殖产业日报-20250513
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 03:32
饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪: 5 月 13 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤,较上一日稳定;河南 14.6-15.4 元/ 公斤,较上一日稳定;四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤,较上一日稳定;广东 15.1- 15.6 元/公斤,较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场,二育栏舍利用率已超过 一半,部分养殖户预计节后出栏,且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升,二次育肥 进场积极性减弱,后期供应增加。需求端,天气转热,节后猪肉消费转淡, 且猪价偏高,屠企利润仍亏损,需求增量有限,不过低位二次育肥滚动进场 仍存,整体供需博弈加剧,猪价频繁震荡整理,关注企业出栏节奏、二育进 出情况。中长期来看,能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增,生产性能提 升,在疫情平稳情况 下,4-9 月供应呈增加态势,根据仔猪数据,2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加,二季度出栏压力仍大,叠加生猪体重偏 高,而上半年消费淡季,在供强需弱格局下, 猪价有下跌风险,关注二育 介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动;2024 年 12 月开始,生猪产能有所去化,但行业有利润,去化幅度有限,处于均衡 区间上限 ...