智通财经记者关注到，药明康德此次业绩预告，超出公司制定的目标预期。在发布2025年三季报时，公 司一年内第二次上调全年业绩指引：预计整体收入从425亿-435亿元上调至435亿-440亿元；预计持续经 营业务收入重回双位数增长，增速从13%-17%上调至17%-18%。 预告显示，药明康德2025年业绩增长呈现"双轮驱动"特征。从主营业务看，公司持续聚焦CRDMO模 式，通过拓展新能力、建设新产能，推动持续经营业务收入同比增长21.40%，高于整体营收增速。 其中，三季报显示，TIDES业务（寡核苷酸与多肽药物）表现亮眼，前三季度收入达78.4亿元，同比激 增121.1%，前三季度及第三季度业务收入均创下历史新高；2025年9月，公司提前完成泰兴多肽产能建 设，多肽固相合成反应釜总体积已提升至超10WL。 另外，非经常性损益则成为业绩超预期的重要推手。公告显示，公司通过出售WuXi XDC Cayman Inc. 部分股权、上海康德弘翼医学临床研究有限公司和上海药明津石医药科技有限公司100%股权，合计获 得净收益55.95亿元；据此测算，占预计全年归母净利润的37.41%。资产处置既优化了业务结构，也短 期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly launched Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF, Huabao (159137), is expected to perform actively due to the rising interest in the medical sector and favorable market conditions, coinciding with the recent recovery of the Hong Kong and A-share medical sectors at the beginning of 2026 [1][14]. Group 1: ETF Launch and Market Context - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF Huabao (159137) was established on December 31, 2025, and began trading on January 12, 2026 [1][15]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently shown a rare "sixteen consecutive days of gains," surpassing the 4100-point mark, indicating high investor enthusiasm [1][14]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index has increased by 14.25% from January 1 to January 9, 2026, and had an annual increase of 48.20% in 2025, reflecting a significant recovery in the medical sector [1][15]. Group 2: ETF Composition and Investment Focus - The ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index, covering four major areas: CXO, medical business and services, medical devices, and biopharmaceuticals, with over 80% of its weight concentrated in leading companies in CXO, internet healthcare, and high-end medical devices [2][15]. - More than 85% of the ETF's components are "Hong Kong exclusive" stocks, including unique offerings like JD Health and Alibaba Health, which provide investors with significant opportunities in the Hong Kong medical sector [2][15]. Group 3: Market Potential and Valuation - The Hong Kong medical sector is characterized as a "golden track" with substantial market potential, driven by an aging population and increasing healthcare demand, supported by a growing GDP per capita [4][19]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index is currently at a historical low, with a drop of over 65% from its peak in 2021, and a price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of 29.43, which is below 65% of its historical range [6][19]. - The index's configuration offers a compelling cost-performance ratio, making the ETF a noteworthy investment tool for investors [6][19].

Core Insights - The report continues to recommend innovative drugs and the related industry chain, highlighting the strong growth potential in the pharmaceutical sector through 2026 [1][4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes the focus on the CXO sector, particularly in chemical CDMO, where Chinese companies hold significant advantages in talent, chemical capabilities, compliance production, and intellectual property protection [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming JPM conference will provide updates on the operational progress of Chinese innovative drug companies, which have shown a long-term positive development trend [4]. - The recommended investment portfolio includes A-shares such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and Aier Eye Hospital, as well as H-shares like Kangfang Biologics and WuXi Biologics [4][5]. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical industry experienced a decline of 4.10% in December, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.38% [8]. - The report notes that the chemical pharmaceutical sector saw the largest declines among sub-sectors, with a drop of 5.80% [12]. Market Data - For the period from January to November 2025, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry's total revenue was 220.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% [7]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45.61 trillion yuan, with retail sales of Western and Chinese medicines amounting to 660.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [7]. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. "Biological Safety Act," which is expected to have a limited short-term effect on Chinese CXO companies, while emphasizing the need to monitor the long-term implications of international competition and regulatory changes [22]. Recent Drug Approvals - In December 2025, a total of 16 innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including six domestic and ten imported products [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Market Perform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [26][32]. Core Insights - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 3.61% from December 26, 2025, to January 8, 2026, exceeding the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.56 percentage points [12]. - Most sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with the hospital and medical R&D outsourcing sectors leading with increases of 10.62% and 7.39%, respectively [13]. - Approximately 82% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with notable performers including Xiangyu Medical, which saw a weekly increase of 57.50% [14][17]. - The overall industry valuation has risen, with the SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index's PE (TTM) at approximately 52.75 times, which is 3.78 times higher than the CSI 300 index [18][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 3.61% from December 26, 2025, to January 8, 2026 [12]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, particularly hospitals and medical R&D outsourcing, which increased by 10.62% and 7.39%, respectively [13]. - About 82% of stocks in the industry had positive returns, with significant gains from several companies [14]. 2. Industry News - The report highlights the acceleration of volume-based procurement in 2026, with various local and national initiatives underway to streamline drug procurement processes [24]. - A new batch of encouraged generic drugs has been announced, focusing on optimizing the drug supply system and enhancing the availability of essential medications [23]. 3. Company Announcements - Jiangsu Yahui Pharmaceutical announced the completion of the first patient enrollment in a Phase I clinical trial for its drug APL-2401, targeting advanced solid tumors [25]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in the brain-computer interface sector, particularly following announcements from Neuralink regarding large-scale production plans [26]. - Recommended stocks for attention include leading companies in medical devices, pharmaceutical retail, aesthetic medicine, and innovative drugs, among others [28][29].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the surge in innovative drug licensing and BD transactions has significantly driven the stock price explosion in the pharmaceutical sector, with total transaction amounts reaching $135.655 billion in 2025, marking a 161% increase from 2024 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong biopharmaceutical sector has rebounded strongly in 2025, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) rising by 76%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index and the overall A-share biopharmaceutical sector, which saw a 25.64% increase [1]. - Southbound capital inflow reached a record high of HKD 1.4 trillion in 2025, with healthcare sector holdings increasing by 125.51% to HKD 540 billion, providing substantial liquidity to the market [1][3]. Group 2: Structural Differentiation - The structural differentiation within the biopharmaceutical sector is becoming more pronounced, with companies that have First-in-Class or Best-in-Class pipelines and stable BD revenue sources being favored, while those reliant on single core projects face valuation pressures [3]. - The CXO sector also performed well in 2025, benefiting from ongoing investments in innovative drugs, while the medical device and supplies sector showed solid performance due to stable cash flows [3]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The policy environment has been continuously optimized, with 76 innovative drugs approved for market entry by the National Medical Products Administration in 2025, significantly surpassing the 48 approvals in 2024 [5]. - The introduction of the first version of the innovative drug commercial insurance catalog marks a shift to a dual protection system of basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance, enhancing clinical medication standards and overall industry R&D returns [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The explosive growth in BD transactions and active IPOs is injecting strong cash flow and confidence into the biopharmaceutical industry, with expectations for leading companies like BeiGene to achieve profitability in 2026 [5]. - However, challenges remain, including potential market pressure from a wave of unlocks post-IPO lock-up periods and stricter regulatory scrutiny on IPO applications [7].

Core Viewpoint - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) is optimizing the review and approval process for urgently needed foreign drugs already on the market to meet the pressing clinical needs of patients in China [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The NMPA will enhance the review mechanism and accelerate the review speed while improving the inspection system to reflect the characteristics of various drug types [2]. - The NMPA encourages applicants to conduct global synchronous research and simultaneous application for market approval in China for urgently needed foreign drugs [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - In 2025, China approved a record 76 innovative drugs, significantly surpassing the 48 approved in 2024 [2]. - The total amount of authorized transactions for innovative drugs in 2025 exceeded $130 billion, with over 150 transactions, marking another historical high [2]. Group 3: Drug Composition - The 76 innovative drugs approved in 2025 include 47 chemical drugs, 23 biological products, and 6 traditional Chinese medicines [2]. - Among the 47 chemical drugs, 38 are domestic innovations, and 9 are imported, with domestic innovations accounting for 80.85% [2]. - For the 23 biological products, 21 are domestic innovations, and 2 are imported, with domestic innovations making up 91.30% [2]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The release of the first version of the "Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory" in December 2025 establishes a multi-layered payment system, creating new market pathways for high-value innovative drugs [2]. - Industry insiders are optimistic about 2026, anticipating a surge in innovative drug business development (BD) due to supportive industrial policies for true and high-level innovations [2]. - The dual push from commercial insurance implementation and procurement optimization is expected to sustain high prosperity in the innovative drug industry, with high-value innovative drugs likely to experience a second growth curve [2]. Group 5: Key Companies - Notable companies in the Hong Kong innovative drug sector include: Heng Rui Medicine, Kelun-Botai Biological, and others [3]. - Leading companies in the CXO sector include: Kailai Ying, Kanglong Chemical, and others [4].

Group 1 - The A-share pharmaceutical sector has significantly outperformed the market, with leading innovative drug company Rongchang Bio surging over 11% [1][8] - The medical sector has shown some divergence, with the brain-computer interface concept maintaining its popularity, as evidenced by Meihao Medical achieving a 20% limit-up for three consecutive days [1][8] - The largest medical ETF in the market (512170) has been climbing towards its six-month moving average, reaching a new 20-day high [1][8] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, the overall index has retreated by about 1%, but the pharmaceutical sector has risen against the trend, with the high-volatility Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (520880) increasing by 3.42% and achieving a trading volume of 6.91 billion yuan, the highest in nearly two months [2][9] - Among the 37 innovative drug companies covered, 33 saw their stock prices rise, with Rongchang Bio in Hong Kong soaring nearly 13% [2][9] - The CXO concept stocks, including Kailaiying and Tigermed, both rose nearly 9%, contributing to a 3.14% increase in the Hong Kong medical theme index [4][9] Group 3 - Recent catalysts in the pharmaceutical field include the approval of Innovent Biologics' CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody "Daboshu" for domestic use, filling a gap in the dual immune new adjuvant therapy field [11] - A significant collaboration worth over 2 billion USD between Gakos and AstraZeneca has set a record for domestic clinical-stage small molecule cancer drug partnerships [11] - Analysts from various brokerages, including Pacific Securities and Guotai Junan, have expressed bullish views on the innovative drug and medical device industry chain, recommending continued focus on this sector [11][12] Group 4 - The upcoming launch of the Hong Kong medical ETF Huabo (159137) on January 12 is expected to attract attention as it tracks the Hong Kong medical theme index [4][11] - The strategy for the pharmaceutical sector emphasizes "innovation + internationalization" as the core theme for 2026, with a focus on innovative drugs and the medical device industry [11][12] - If consumer sentiment improves, the consumer medical sector, including medical services and OTC traditional Chinese medicine, is expected to enter a recovery phase [11]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has recorded a three-day consecutive rise since the beginning of 2025, with a rebound of approximately 10% in the main innovative drug index [1][3] - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (520880) has accumulated a gain of 9.24% since the start of the year, with a daily increase of over 3.4% [1] - In 2025, the Hong Kong innovative drug sector has shown an overall increase of over 60%, becoming a significant player in the market, despite experiencing a notable pullback in Q4 [3][4] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector's strong performance in early 2025 is attributed to favorable policies, exceeding industry data expectations, and the approach of significant industry conferences [6] - The total amount of outbound licensing for Chinese innovative drugs reached $135.655 billion in 2025, with 157 transactions, both setting historical records [6] - The number of new drug pipelines under research in China accounts for 30% of the global total, ranking second worldwide [6] Group 3 - Investment outlook for 2026 focuses on innovation and international expansion, with an emphasis on companies that have achieved significant business development transactions and overseas clinical progress [7] - The innovative drug industry is entering a "dual-driven" phase of product development and commercial sales, highlighting the importance of next-generation therapies such as ADCs and dual antibodies [7] - The AI pharmaceutical sector and brain-computer interfaces are expected to accelerate industrialization due to clear policy development paths and insurance pricing support [8] Group 4 - The investment logic in the pharmaceutical sector for 2026 has shifted from broad market increases to selective alpha investments, favoring companies with strong technology and clear commercialization paths [8] - Relevant ETFs include the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (520880), drug ETF (562050), and medical ETF (512170) [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The report indicates that the global market for innovative drug VC&PE financing is experiencing a sustained recovery in 2025, serving as a leading indicator for the CXO industry's economic conditions [1][9] - In 2025, the global innovative drug VC&PE financing amount is projected to grow by 3.39% year-on-year, improving by 1.46 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][10] - The report highlights significant improvements in the growth rates of VC&PE financing for innovative drugs in Q4 2025, with global, U.S., and domestic financing amounts increasing by 22.05%, 29.86%, and 46.34% year-on-year, respectively [3][11] - In December 2025, the financing amounts for innovative drugs in the global, U.S., and domestic markets saw year-on-year growth rates of 21.31%, 57.02%, and 50.42%, respectively, with particularly strong growth in the U.S. and domestic markets [4][20] Summary by Sections 1. Annual Observation - The report notes that the low point for global innovative drug VC&PE financing occurred in 2022, with a narrowing decline in 2023 and a return to positive growth in 2024-2025 [2][10] 1.2 Quarterly Observation - In Q4 2025, the growth rates for global, U.S., and domestic innovative drug VC&PE financing improved significantly compared to Q3 2025, with increases of 23.59, 27.94, and 13.97 percentage points, respectively [3][11] 1.3 Monthly Observation - December 2025 saw high year-on-year growth in global, U.S., and domestic innovative drug VC&PE financing, with the U.S. and domestic markets showing particularly notable increases [4][20]

创新药已经突围成功。 "十五五"规划开局之年，医药行业在2026年将呈现创新药爆发、CXO回暖、中药转型、药店收缩、医院 洗牌、并购潮涌的总体格局，行业分化加剧，强者恒强。 创新药：20款重磅新药有望获批 在2025年，共有76个创新药物成功获批上市，数量较上年增长58%。与此同时，创新药对外授权交易活 跃，交易数量突破150起，累计交易总额更是高达1300亿美元以上，彰显了我国创新药产业的强劲发展 势头。 西部证券指出，2026年创新药行情将从"BD为王"转向"数据为王"，全球多中心临床试验数据读出将成 为核心催化。 随着临床数据和上市审批的加速，2026年，中国创新药出海会迎来爆发期。业内预测，2026年将有约20 款重磅新药有望在中国获批上市，涵盖肿瘤、感染性疾病、罕见病、自身免疫性疾病、神经系统疾病等 多个治疗领域。比如，BL-B01D1是百利天恒自主研发的全球首创EGFR×HER3双抗ADC，用于治疗复 发性或转移性食管鳞癌。作为全球首个被纳入优先审评的EGFR×HER3双抗ADC，它填补了PD-1/PD-L1 联合化疗失败患者的治疗空白。此外，BL-B01D1的鼻咽癌适应症也已获优先审评，预计20 ...