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研究所晨会观点精萃-20250423
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 03:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global risk appetite has significantly increased due to the US releasing signals of trade relaxation. The short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported by factors such as the Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures to prevent RMB exchange - rate overshooting, strengthened domestic policy support, and the US - China trade relaxation signals. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations, treasury bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The IMF has significantly downgraded the global economic outlook due to the impact of Trump's high tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade tension between the US and China will ease, and Trump has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell but hopes for a rate cut, leading to a sharp rebound in the US dollar and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures have relieved the RMB exchange - rate pressure, and the short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported [1]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as logistics trade, cross - border payment, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen slightly. With the relief of RMB exchange - rate pressure and strengthened policy support, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market continued to rise on Tuesday. The US government's credit damage, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and other factors will support the short - term strength of gold. If there is a correction, it may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but has greater correction pressure [2][3]. 3.4 Black Metals 3.4.1 Steel - The steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Tuesday, with a significant decline in trading volume. The real demand recovery lacks sustainability, and the supply remains high. The short - term steel market is recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore futures and spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday. The ore fundamentals are still good, but if the steel prices remain low, iron ore may experience a supplementary decline [5]. 3.4.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the operating rates of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises have decreased. The short - term ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [6]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand pressure is expected to be small. The 05 contract price will mainly oscillate, and the 09 contract has a large supply - expectation pressure, waiting for a short - selling opportunity on a rebound [7]. 3.5.2 PP - The domestic PP market quotation was slightly adjusted. Although there is new production capacity, the supply reduction on the supply side will relieve the overall pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover [8]. 3.5.3 LLDPE - The PE market price was adjusted. The near - month price has limited downward space due to low - inventory support. The 09 contract's supply and demand situation needs to be tracked, and the long - term price is still under pressure due to new production capacity release [9]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - The copper price rose due to the weakening of the US dollar. The fundamentals are okay, and with the improvement of market risk preference and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening, the copper price will continue to rebound with short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.6.2 Aluminum - The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, with significant inventory reduction. There is short - term rebound space, but it is still bearish in the medium term [10]. 3.6.3 Tin - The supply of tin is gradually recovering, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term tin price will rebound, but the rebound space is limited [11]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean closed higher. The US soybean planting progress is slightly faster, and the weather conditions vary in different regions [12]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal - Since mid - April, the soybean meal spot basis has been strongly pulled up, but it may quickly decline later. The risk of a decline after May Day is relatively high [13]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal has entered the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has declined. The short - term price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to continue to widen [13]. 3.7.4 Oils - The inventory of soybean oil is accelerating to decline, the rapeseed oil is in the off - season, the Malaysian palm oil inventory has reached an inflection point, and the domestic palm oil is less driven by cost [14]. 3.7.5 Pigs - The current market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. After the second - fattening stimulates the spot price to rise, the demand matching is low, and the spot price may be under pressure around May [14]. 3.7.6 Corn - The upper - limit pressure of the current corn price range is due to weak demand and high inventory, while the lower - limit support comes from low inventory in the producing areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [15].