每经编辑：张益铭 点评：东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，人民币适度升值本身就是"稳市场"的一个重要方面，这能有 效控制金融风险。另外，人民币适度升值还能有效稳定国内资本市场信心，对稳股市有积极作用。 NO.4"五一"假期银联、网联共处理支付交易234.39亿笔 丨2025年5月7日 星期三丨 NO.1蓝佛安：中方将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策 近日，亚洲开发银行理事会第58届年会在意大利米兰举行。财政部部长、亚行中国理事蓝佛安与会并发 言。蓝佛安指出，中国是经济全球化的受益者也是贡献者，近年来对全球经济增长的贡献率保持在30% 左右。今年一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，实现良好开局。中方将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心 实现2025年的5%左右增长目标。 点评：这一积极态势对市场影响正面，市场信心将得到提振，尤其是与宏观经济关联度高的板块，如金 融、基建、消费等有望迎来增长预期提升。中方积极宏观政策的推进，为市场注入确定性，增强投资者 对2025年5%左右增长目标的信心，推动市场整体向好发展。 NO.2央行、证监会等部门将介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 国务院新闻办公室5月6日消息，国务院新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the positive momentum in China's key engineering projects and overall economic performance in the first quarter of 2025, driven by increased investment and innovation in various sectors [1][2][3]. Investment and Project Development - In the first quarter, the number of engineering projects reported for work injury insurance reached 39,000, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with a total project cost of 1.9 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [1]. - March saw a significant acceleration in project construction, with 18,000 projects reported, accounting for 46.5% of the quarterly total, and a total cost of 800 billion yuan, representing 43.9% of the quarterly total [3]. Innovation and High-Technology Growth - High-tech industry sales revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, with digital product manufacturing and digital technology application sectors seeing increases of 12% and 11.6%, respectively [1]. - The report emphasizes the role of tax incentives in supporting technological innovation and the development of new productive forces [2]. Consumer Market Dynamics - The health consumption sector experienced significant growth, with sales revenue from elderly care services increasing by 65.5% and nursing institution services by 23.9% year-on-year [3]. - The "May Day" holiday period saw a 15.2% year-on-year increase in sales revenue across consumer-related industries, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods [3]. Manufacturing Sector Performance - Manufacturing sales revenue rose by 4.8% year-on-year, accounting for 29.1% of total national sales, with equipment manufacturing growing by 9.7% [4]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sales increased by 12.1% and 9.7%, respectively, indicating a shift towards high-end and digital transformation in the manufacturing sector [4][5]. Tax Policy and Support Measures - The tax authorities are committed to implementing tax and fee support policies to enhance service levels and promote high-quality economic development [4][5]. - The report indicates that the tax department will continue to optimize tax payment services and respond to the needs of manufacturing enterprises, facilitating their transition to high-end, intelligent, and green development [5].

Group 1 - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1.36 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90.28 million yuan, and a positive net cash flow from operating activities of 145 million yuan [1] - In 2024, the company achieved an annual operating revenue of 5.923 billion yuan, a 115.38% increase since its listing in 2006, with new contracts in the construction industry amounting to 4.178 billion yuan and total assets reaching 15.2 billion yuan [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), having cumulatively distributed cash dividends of 1.293 billion yuan (tax included) since its listing [1] Group 2 - The company has established a strong presence in municipal, rail transit, and building construction sectors, with comprehensive construction technology and qualifications, and has received numerous national awards for its projects [2] - As the first private enterprise in China to obtain "Double Special Double First-Class" qualifications, the company focuses on quality control and has built a reputable brand image in the Yangtze River Delta region [2] Group 3 - The company is actively responding to the "dual carbon" strategy by investing in and signing contracts for renewable energy projects, including a 200MW/400MWh energy storage project and a 150MW photovoltaic power generation project [3] - In 2024, the company's subsidiary operated a 80MW photovoltaic power station with a stable output of 133 million kWh [3] - National fixed asset investment in 2024 was 51.4374 trillion yuan, a 3.2% year-on-year increase, with the construction industry output value reaching 32.6501 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase [3] Group 4 - The company secured new construction contracts worth 4.178 billion yuan in 2024, including significant infrastructure projects in Guangdong and Zhejiang [4] - The company has achieved notable milestones in construction technology, including the successful completion of long tunnels and non-excavation techniques, and has received multiple quality and safety awards [4] Group 5 - The company plans to continue focusing on the Yangtze River Delta infrastructure market and strengthen its traditional advantages in rail transit and municipal projects [5] - The company aims to deepen cooperation with state-owned enterprises and explore overseas business opportunities while leveraging its high-tech enterprise qualifications [5] - The company intends to integrate construction capabilities with renewable energy and technology to optimize its business structure and create new growth avenues [5]

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Construction reported a revenue of 9.119 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.27%, but a net loss attributable to shareholders of 663 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.311 billion yuan the previous year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.4%, but a net profit of 193 million yuan, compared to a loss of approximately 3.68 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company faced financial pressure due to funding shortages, but there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals, such as a continuous reduction in contract assets and a shift from credit impairment losses to gains. By the end of 2024, the company's PPP assets were approximately 34.1 billion yuan, and contract assets were 12.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, showing a consistent decline [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company recorded asset disposal gains of 251 million yuan, primarily from government storage of its subsidiary, Dadi Steel Structure. The fiscal policy is expected to remain loose, potentially contributing to further non-operating gains in the coming quarters [2]. Strategic Developments - The successful completion of the private placement to Hangzhou Transportation Investment Group (HTIG) is anticipated to bring in new orders and reduce costs. HTIG will invest 1.846 billion yuan and become the largest shareholder with a 29.51% stake, which is expected to catalyze the company's fundamentals [2]. - The company signed new contracts worth 396 million yuan in Q1 2025, the lowest since 2018, primarily due to funding shortages. With HTIG as a major shareholder, the company is expected to gain a share in the key project construction market in Hangzhou, which is valued at approximately 200-300 billion yuan annually [2]. Cost Management - The company's financial expenses for 2024 were 1.521 billion yuan, with a financing cost of about 7.40%. It is anticipated that with HTIG's involvement, the financing cost may significantly decrease as state-owned enterprises typically have lower average financing costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - As a domestic infrastructure player, the company is less affected by export tariffs and fluctuations in household income. With the support of debt reduction policies, initial signs of fundamental improvement were observed in Q1 2025. The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.0 billion yuan and 16.15 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, maintaining a "strongly recommended" rating [3].

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 24 年业绩承压下滑，25 年板块基本面有望迎来修复 24 年营收、利润承压下滑，净利率及周转率拖累 ROE 提升 24 年 CS 建筑板块实现营收 86997 亿元，同比-4.1%，实现归母净利润 1689 亿元，同比-14.4%，营收增速同比下降 11.8pct，业绩增速同比下降 21.4pct。 利润增速慢于营收增速主要系费用率上升、减值损失增加、周转率均小幅下 滑。24 年 ROE（摊薄）6.5%，同比下降 1.49pct。25Q1 建筑板块营收/归母 同比-6%/-8.4%。25Q1 建筑板块或受一季度开复工慢于去年农历同期，项目 落地进度放缓影响，展望 Q2 以及下半年，新增专项债发行提速、资金到位 加快，考虑到关税态势下外需面临的较大压力，内需刺激政策有望进一步发 力，加速推动实物工作量落地，建筑公司基本面或将迎来修复。 毛利率小幅改善，费用率&减值损失同比增长，全年 CFO 净流入大幅减少 24 年 CS 建筑板块整体毛利率 10.96%，同比改善 0.05pct，净利率 2.44%，同 比下降 0.29pct，一方面反映出建筑行业整体提质增 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered the target price for China Railway Group (00390.HK) to HKD 4.2, while maintaining the company's full-year guidance unchanged [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter of this year, China Railway Group's revenue and net profit decreased by 6% and 23% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Overall new contracts fell by 10% year-on-year, primarily due to limited growth potential in traditional sectors and the real estate industry still being at a low point [1] Strategic Shift - The company is proactively changing its strategy to focus on quality over scale expansion [1] - A highlight for the company is the 33% year-on-year increase in overseas new contracts, benefiting from significant growth in the real estate and railway projects in Asia and Africa [1] Management Guidance - The management has not altered the full-year guidance, projecting a 3.1% year-on-year increase in new contracts and a 2.4% year-on-year decline in revenue [1] - Management believes that revenue recognition and order intake accelerated in April [1] Earnings Forecast - UBS has reduced its earnings per share forecast for the company by 12% to 15% for the years 2023 to 2027 [1] - The target price has been cut by 12% from HKD 4.8 to HKD 4.2, while maintaining a buy rating [1]

要闻 美国 4 月 ISM 服务业指数 51.6 每日晨报 2025年5月6日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:黄金进入震荡期,等待美联储降息。黄金突破区间可能需等待美联储降 息或实物黄金需求爆发。未来需要进一步观察美国经济情况,是滞胀还是衰退, 如果出现滞胀并且美联储并未降息,那么黄金大概率呈现震荡向上。如果进入 衰退,黄金会跟随其他大宗商品回调,直至美联储启动降息。黄金的震荡区间 已经被系统性的提升到 3150 美元至 3550 美元,美联储降息后黄金有望上行 至 3700 美元以上。另外,实物黄金需求旺盛或使得下半年黄金再次上行。 宏观:美国滥施关税影响初步显现——2025年4月 PMI 分析。我们认为政府 ● 债的发行使用将加快,对科技、消费和外贸三个方向重点支持。映射到投资上, 短期经济结构性的特征依旧明显,新质生产力相关行业表现更好,政策支持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction projects in various sectors in China are progressing smoothly in the first quarter of 2025, with significant growth in project numbers and investment amounts [1] Group 1: Project Data - In the first quarter of 2025, the number of engineering projects reported for work injury insurance through project-based applications reached 39,000, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [1] - The total construction cost of these projects amounted to 1.9 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1] - In March 2025 alone, 18,000 engineering projects were reported, accounting for 46.5% of the total for the quarter [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The total reported construction cost in March was 800 billion yuan, which constituted 43.9% of the total construction cost for the first quarter [1] - There is a noticeable acceleration in project construction activities, particularly after March, indicating a positive investment momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of major projects in Sichuan during the "May Day" holiday is crucial for stabilizing economic growth and promoting high-quality development, with significant investments and progress reported across various sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Major Projects and Investments - The China (Mianyang) Science and Technology City Nuclear Medical Health Industry Park has a total investment of approximately 18.6 billion yuan, with an expected annual output value exceeding 50 billion yuan upon completion [1]. - In the first quarter of this year, Sichuan completed investments of 245.53 billion yuan in 810 provincial key projects, achieving an annual investment completion rate of 31% [4]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The Yukun High-speed Railway's key project, the Ma'anshan Tunnel, successfully passed through during the holiday, with strict safety measures in place to ensure zero accidents [1]. - The Xiyu High-speed Railway's Xiangyang No. 1 Tunnel has reached its designed length of 12.766 kilometers, with over 150 workers dedicating their holiday to advance the project [3]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Initiatives - The first grid-connected energy storage power station in Sichuan, the Aba Hongyuan Anqu Phase I Photovoltaic Project, is on track to achieve full capacity grid connection by May 15, with an expected annual power generation of 450 million kilowatt-hours [3].

伍绕了好几个弯。 占地3509平方米的中国馆，是大阪世博会最大的外国自建馆之一，建筑主体钢结构构件超3700件。从 2024年2月开工，到2025年3月底完成全部施工任务，再到上个月正式开馆，中国馆率先通过各项许可验 收，建出了"中国速度"、展现了"中国质量"。 据了解，中国馆将开放至10月13日。这座"中华书简"如何建成？背后有哪些故事？记者专访了大阪世博 会中国馆全过程咨询及参建团队。 "绿"，提供中国方案 选用竹简板等环保建材，建筑更加节能实用 中国馆外观如绵延展开的中华书简。 馆内展出的三星堆文物复制品等展品。 馆内大屏用汉、日、英三种语言欢迎各国游客。 以上图片均为中国建筑科学研究院有限公司提供 走进日本大阪梦洲世博园区，中国馆如一卷绵延展开的中华书简，静静矗立其中。由于中国"五一"假期 与日本黄金周部分日期重叠，来馆游客最近明显增多，中国馆开启满负荷接待模式，排队入馆的游客队 "大阪世博会中国馆围绕的主题是'共同构建人与自然生命共同体——绿色发展的未来社会'，项目从设 计选材到施工运营，都坚持全生命周期绿色低碳的原则，推进废弃物减量和资源回收利用。"中国建筑 科学研究院有限公司建筑设计院院长、大阪 ...