1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite is continuously contracting, and the domestic stock and bond markets are both weak. There is a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - The resumption of US official data may intensify short - term fluctuations in precious metals prices, and attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. - There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble, and copper prices will continue to adjust. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust, and alumina will maintain a weak and volatile state [6][7][8]. - Cast aluminum prices will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude. Zinc prices have support below, and lead price declines will slow down. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [11][12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to enter a weak and volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely, and nickel prices will be in a weak and volatile state [15][16][17]. - The prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level. Steel prices will oscillate, and iron ore prices will mainly oscillate. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate weakly [21][22][23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate, and palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [27][28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US employment data is weak, risk appetite is contracting, the US dollar index is oscillating strongly, US bond yields are falling, US stocks are generally down, and gold and oil prices are rising while copper prices are falling. Attention should be paid to non - farm payrolls data and technology sector earnings reports this week [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has fallen for three consecutive days, the two - market trading volume remains above 1.9 trillion yuan, and small - cap stocks have adjusted more significantly. The margin balance has cooled down, and there is a risk of a phased correction. The bond market is also weak, and the long - term interest rate has risen slightly, maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices first declined and then rose. The latest US employment data is weak, which boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The resumption of official data may intensify short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper and LME copper both adjusted downward. There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble. More Fed officials are questioning the December interest rate cut. With the end of the government shutdown, attention should be paid to unemployment claims and CPI data. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level decline in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices both fell. The US initial jobless claims reached a two - month high, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased. The market is waiting for more key data. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures price fell. The spot price has declined, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. However, there is still an oversupply in reality, and it will maintain a low - level and volatile state [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price fell. The cost side has support, the supply has little change, the demand is stable, and the price will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc and LME zinc showed different trends. The US employment data is poor, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased, and the market is waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report. Zinc prices have support below, and the short - term price trend depends on the macro situation [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead and LME lead both showed a weak trend. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and LME inventory accumulation, lead prices have support from the cost side and slow inventory accumulation, and the decline will slow down [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin and LME tin oscillated. The US dollar is strong, and the market is waiting for more macro guidance. There are concerns about the supply side, and the demand is strong. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has a marginal convergence, the demand side is weak, and the price is expected to enter a weak and volatile phase [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated downward, and the spot price rose. The futures market has strong selling pressure, and the spot trading is poor. With the arrival of imported resources, the supply shortage may be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate widely [17][18]. 3.12 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The terminal demand is low, the inventory is at an absolute high, and the price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream supply [19][20]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Tuesday, the prices of soda ash and glass futures both oscillated weakly. The downstream demand is not improving, and the prices will oscillate at a low level [21][22]. 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading and prices are stable, the supply pressure has decreased after steel mill production cuts, but the demand is still weak, and steel prices will oscillate [23][24]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, the demand has a short - term rebound but the medium - term reduction expectation remains unchanged, and the price will mainly oscillate [25]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The coal mine production has increased, the coke price increase has limited improvement in coking enterprise losses, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The price will oscillate weakly [26]. 3.17 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures fell. China has purchased 792,000 tons of US soybeans. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is over 90%. The supply is loose, and the price will oscillate [27][28]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The US biodiesel policy may exceed market expectations, and India's vegetable oil inventory is at a low level, with potential import demand. Palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [29][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday, with the TMT sector rising against the trend and the pro-cyclical sectors experiencing a collective decline. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The central bank's net investment may increase, but if the net investment is less than expected, the tightness of the capital market may continue this week. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for long - term bonds [5][7]. - The precious metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - The shipping index (European line) showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term and rise in shock in the short term [11][12]. - The copper market showed a shock operation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in the demand side and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [12][16]. - The alumina market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on whether the production reduction of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [17][19]. - The aluminum market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the changes in downstream start - up, inventory depletion rhythm, and overseas policies [21][22]. - The aluminum alloy market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion process [22][24]. - The zinc market showed a shock adjustment. It is recommended to focus on whether there is an improvement in demand and interest - rate cut expectations [24][27]. - The tin market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [27][31]. - The nickel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][33]. - The stainless - steel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of steel mills and the price of nickel iron [34][37]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [38][41]. - The polysilicon market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [42][43]. - The industrial silicon market showed a small - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][45]. - The steel market showed a weak trend. It is recommended to try short positions. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge [46][48]. - The iron ore market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. - The coking coal market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. - The coke market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - The meal market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [57][60]. - The pig market showed a sign of stabilization. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A - share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. The TMT sector rose against the trend, and the pro - cyclical sectors declined significantly [2][3]. - News: Domestically, China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan discussed economic and monetary policies with the prime minister [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market was stable, and the central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - Operation suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. If there is a deep decline, consider a bull spread of put options [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: The main contracts of treasury futures all rose, and the yield of major interest - bearing bonds changed little [5]. - Capital: The central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity was tight [5]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations in the short term [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US labor market remained resilient, and the US Treasury announced relevant data. The US stock market fell, and precious metals bottomed out and rebounded [8][9]. - Outlook: In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - Capital: The outflow trend of gold and silver ETFs may gradually weaken [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was different [12]. - Logic: The futures market showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term [12]. - Operation suggestion: Rise in shock in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. - Macro: The US government shutdown affected the market liquidity and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [13]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper decreased in October [14]. - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and the downstream demand was resilient [15]. - Inventory: The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [15]. - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals support the copper price. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [16][17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: The price of alumina decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed [17]. - Supply: The production of alumina increased in October, and it is expected to continue to be in a surplus situation in November [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of alumina increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum decreased, and the market trading was inactive [19]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and it is expected to decrease slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum products decreased, and the demand was under pressure [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was difficult to deplete [22]. - Logic: The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up, inventory depletion, and overseas policies [21][22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy decreased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased in October, and it is expected to continue to decline in November [23]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy was weak, and the inventory digestion was slow [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy decreased slightly [23]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to focus on scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory depletion [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the supply pressure of refined zinc was relieved [25]. - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was basically stable, and the demand was not strong [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is stable, and the zinc price will fluctuate. It is recommended to focus on demand improvement and interest - rate cut expectations [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin decreased slightly, and the market trading was average [27]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in September, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder decreased in October, and the inventory increased slightly [29]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand in South China is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [31]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [31]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel decreased significantly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel decreased in October, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [32]. - Logic: The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian policies [33]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel was stable, and the market trading was inactive [34]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased [34]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel decreased in November, and the supply pressure was still there [35][36]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [36]. - Logic: The policy and macro - driving forces were insufficient, and the price was expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on steel mill production reduction and nickel iron price [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [38]. Carbonate Lithium - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the market trading was light [38]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in October, and it is expected to continue to increase [39]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was optimistic, and the inventory decreased [39][40]. - Logic: The price fluctuated in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the resumption of production of large enterprises and the marginal changes in demand [41]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [42]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The price of polysilicon was stable [42]. - Supply: The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November and increase slightly in December [42]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [43]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [43]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: The price of industrial silicon was stable [44]. - Supply: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November [44]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline, and the inventory decreased [44][45]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [45]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to operate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, and the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit of cold - rolled coils was the highest [46]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased, and the production of five major steel products decreased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand was weak, and the export was at a high level. The apparent demand decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils needed to be further reduced [48]. - View: The price of steel was stable, and the price of coking coal decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly [49]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures increased, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [49]. - Basis: The optimal delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [49]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal increased, and the demand for iron ore was high [49]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival at ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased [50]. - View: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The price of coking coal futures decreased significantly, and the spot price also showed a downward trend [51]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal increased [51][53]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased, and the steel mill's replenishment demand was weak [52][53]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [52]. - View: The price of coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Coke - Futures and spot: The price of coke futures decreased, and the spot price was expected to be stable in the short term [55][56]. - Profit: The average profit of coking plants was negative [55]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [55]. - Demand: The demand for coke was affected by the increase in hot - metal output and the decrease in steel mill profit [56]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [56]. - View: The price of coke is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal was up and down, and there was no transaction [57][58]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was at the lower end of the expected range. China purchased US soybeans [58][59]. - Outlook: The US soybean demand improved, but the export demand was still weak. The domestic soybean meal supply was loose. It is expected to fluctuate widely [59][60]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price of pigs oscillated, and there were signs of stabilization [61].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the mid - stream digital transformation progress, and also provides an overview of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries including price and activity changes, along with relevant policies in production and service industries [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Information - In the production industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to build about 200 high - standard digital parks by 2027, achieving full digital transformation of above - scale industrial enterprises in the park, full coverage of industrial Internet applications, 100% digital transformation coverage of above - scale industrial enterprises, 100% dual - gigabit network coverage, and effective deployment and application of computing power infrastructure [1] - In the service industry, 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption in Beijing, including increasing bond market financing support, promoting the issuance of bonds by service - consumption enterprises, and expanding consumer credit [1] Upstream Industry - Black: Glass prices declined slightly [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices rebounded [3] - Real estate: The building materials price index rose slightly [3] Mid - stream Industry - Chemical: PX operation remained at a high level, while PTA operation declined [3] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants increased slightly [3] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operation declined [3] Downstream Industry - Real estate: Seasonal decline in commercial housing sales in second - and third - tier cities [3] - Service: International flight frequencies decreased slightly [3] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agriculture: Corn price was 2161.4 yuan/ton with a 0.40% year - on - year increase; egg price was 6.5 yuan/kg with a 4.50% increase; palm oil price was 8700.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.68% change; cotton price was 14848.8 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; pork average wholesale price was 17.9 yuan/kg with a - 0.94% change; copper price was 86020.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.95% change; zinc price was 22304.0 yuan/ton with a - 1.52% change [34] - Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum price was 21473.3 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change; nickel price was 117383.3 yuan/ton with a - 2.92% change; another aluminum price was 17188.8 yuan/ton with a - 1.36% change [34] - Black metals: Steel price was 3161.3 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase; iron ore price was 805.2 yuan/ton with a 1.71% increase; wire rod price was 3320.0 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase; glass price was 13.7 yuan/square meter with a - 2.14% change [34] - Non - metals: Natural rubber price was 14891.7 yuan/ton with a 0.85% increase; China Plastic City price index was 768.1 with a - 0.51% change [34] - Energy: WTI crude oil price had a - 0.37% change; Brent crude oil price was 64.2 dollars/barrel with a 0.22% increase; liquefied natural gas price was 4182.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change; coal price was 832.0 yuan/ton with no change [34] - Chemical: PTA price was 4628.8 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change; polyethylene price was 7005.0 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase; urea price was 1630.0 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; soda ash price was 1218.6 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase [34] - Real estate: The national cement price index was 137.3 with a 0.51% increase; the building materials composite index was 113.8 with a 1.49% increase; the national concrete price index was 90.8 with a - 0.07% change [34]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US stock market continues to decline despite an improvement in the "small non - farm" data. The international economic and trade order is impacted by high tariffs and other barriers. [1] - The stock index market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. The technology sector is a long - term focus. The domestic glass and纯碱 markets are in a process of inventory digestion, and the crude oil market has a downward trend. [2][3] 3. Summary by Category A. Main News - **International News**: Trump claims to have selected the next Fed Chair candidate, and the short - listed candidates include current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. [6] - **Domestic News**: In October, the unemployment rates of the non - student urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 are 17.3%, 7.2%, and 3.8% respectively. [1][7] - **Industry News**: After Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Tianjin, Nanjing and Suzhou in Jiangsu Province will carry out real - estate trust property registration pilot projects. [8] B. Performance of Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: US indices decline. The domestic stock index market had a correction, with the media and computer sectors leading the rise, and coal and power equipment sectors leading the fall. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The technology sector is a long - term direction, and the market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. [2][11] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remain weak, with last week's inventory at 5962 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 54 million heavy cases. Soda ash futures slightly decline, with last week's inventory at 154.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. [2][17] - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rises 0.74%. An attack on a port in Russia causes it to suspend oil exports, equivalent to 2% of global supply. US refined oil demand is lower than last year, and the number of online drilling rigs shows a long - term downward trend. [3][13] C. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The long - term trend is positive, with a focus on the technology sector. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and external funds may flow in. [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rise slightly. The central bank's open - market operations and the economic situation at home and abroad affect the bond market. The market liquidity is expected to be reasonably abundant. [12] - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse, affected by supply and demand factors. [3][13] - **Methanol**: It rises slightly at night. The inventory is accumulating, and the short - term trend is weak. [14] - **Rubber**: It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, affected by supply and demand and weather conditions. [15] - **Polyolefins**: Futures decline. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by the overall market. It may continue to fluctuate at a low level. [16] - **Metals** - **Copper**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the long - term price may be supported by the supply - demand gap. [19] - **Zinc**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and the price may fluctuate within a range. [20] - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend may correct, depending on factors such as supply, steel de - stocking speed, and iron - water production. [21] - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: It adjusts weakly at night. The US soybean production and inventory data are mixed, and the domestic market is in a loose pattern. [22] - **Oils and Fats**: They run strongly at night. The palm oil market has different supply - demand situations, and the soybean oil is supported. The rapeseed oil may fluctuate. [23] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to decline, while the domestic market may fluctuate within a range. [24][25] - **Cotton**: The price is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. [26] - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price fluctuates and declines. The price support in November is uncertain, and the 02 contract has limited upward space. [27]

这是项目建设的"加速度"，是寿阳高质量发展的硬核支撑——2025年，寿阳县谋划实施重点项目 146个，总投资达460亿元，年度计划投资123.26亿元； 这是有效投资的"强引擎"，是经济增长的坚实底气——1-9月全县重点项目拉动固投总量和增速稳 居全市第一，基础设施、产业、工业、民间投资均创历史新高； 这是转型跨越的"成绩单"，是争当排头兵的生动实践——18个省市重点项目完成固投46.98亿元， 拉动固投增长27个百分点…… 山河为卷，岁月作答。 当时间的指针在寿川大地悄然转动，2022年伊始，山西省晋中市寿阳县委政府提出"双百工程"行 动，以"百项重大工程、百项特色争创行动"为抓手，为"争当发展排头兵 建设幸福新寿阳"筑牢根基、 蓄足动能。作为"双百工程"的重要一翼，"百项重大工程"是发展的"底气""方向""后劲"，为推动经济社 会高质量发展提供了重要支撑。 步履不停，如今的寿阳大项目顶天立地、硬核发力，撑起发展"骨架"；小项目铺天盖地、精准补 位，产业发展多点开花；民生项目更如大珠小珠落玉盘，让群众生活暖意融融，幸福指数稳步提升…… 一幅高质量发展画卷在寿川大地徐徐展开。 产业蓄势与经济增长"双领跑" 在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector in Xinyang is actively supporting the revitalization of the revolutionary old area through innovative financial products and services, focusing on agriculture, green finance, technology, and cultural tourism [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Group 1: Agricultural Support - The Agricultural Bank provided a timely loan of 2 million yuan to a tea farmer, enabling early production of tea, highlighting the importance of financial support for local agriculture [2] - By May 2025, the total balance of inclusive loans in Xinyang reached 69.14 billion yuan, with an increase of 4.34 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2] Group 2: Green Finance Initiatives - The People's Bank of China Xinyang Branch has issued 6.88 billion yuan in preferential loans to support green projects, leading the province in scale [3] - By March 2025, the balance of green loans in Xinyang reached 32.214 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21% [3] Group 3: Technological Financial Support - The Xinyang Branch of the People's Bank has implemented a technology finance work plan, focusing on expanding scale and optimizing services, resulting in a technology loan balance exceeding 25 billion yuan by May 2025, with a growth of 10.2% since the beginning of the year [5] - Loans to technology-based SMEs reached 3.86 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 30.1% [5] Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Development - The Xinyang financial institutions are promoting red tourism and rural study through innovative products like "Red Tourism Loan" and "Red City Study Loan," with a total loan balance for related industries reaching 2.47 billion yuan by June 2025 [6] - The integration of finance, technology, and education at the Dabie Mountain Cadre Academy exemplifies the digital transformation in red education [6] Group 5: Overall Impact - The financial initiatives in Xinyang are transforming the local economy, enhancing agricultural productivity, promoting green projects, supporting technological innovation, and fostering cultural tourism, reflecting the enduring spirit of the anti-Japanese war and the revitalization of the old revolutionary area [7]

文字早评 2025/11/19 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、有机硅实控人会议今日正在上海召开，据记者此前了解，本次会议上有望确定减产目标； 2、工信部：目标到 2027 年建成 200 个左右高标准数字园区 算力基础设施实现有效部署和应用； 3、宁德时代：2027 年有望实现全固态电池小批量生产； 4、小米集团总裁卢伟冰指出，当前内存价格上涨是长周期行为，主要驱动力来自 AI 带来的 HBM 需求激 增，未来可能通过涨价应对成本上升。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.03%/-0.29%/-0.99%/-2.00%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.02%/-1.00%/-3.55%/-6.45%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.03%/-1.29%/-4.45%/-7.52%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.02%/-0.18%/-0.29%/-0.63%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，近期热点板块快速轮动，科技成长仍是市场主线。从大方向看，政策支持资本市 场的态度未变，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周二，TL 主力合约收于 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1926.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Different futures varieties showed various trends affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 18, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index had three consecutive negative daily K - lines. The CSI 300 Index remained weak, closing at 4568.19, down 29.86 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On November 18, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1685.2, down 47.6. Supply continued to shrink due to coking losses, environmental inspections, and coal source shortages, while the increase in molten iron to 236 tons supported the rigid demand for coke [2][4]. - Coking Coal: On November 18, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1186.1 yuan, down 42.8. The resumption of production in some Shanxi coal mines led to a slight increase in coking coal output, and the passage of Mongolian coal at ports returned to a high level. The high - price procurement by downstream coking coal slowed down but was mainly for rigid demand, and coal mines had sufficient pre - sales and low inventories [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors after a large short - term increase, ICE sugar oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. After a large short - term decline, the contract oscillated and sorted out slightly lower at night. The ISO predicted a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. India's sugar production accelerated, and the new - season sugar output was expected to increase to 31.5 million tons, with possible exports of 2 - 2.5 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors after a large increase in the previous trading day, Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted out slightly higher on Tuesday and oscillated slightly higher at night due to capital effects. In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 9.96421 billion pieces. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. Palm Oil - On November 18, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a low level, and the oscillation range was slightly higher than the previous day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 8708, up 0.32% from the previous day. Last week, the arrival of palm oil in China increased while the demand did not keep up, resulting in inventory accumulation. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Live Pigs - On November 18, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The inventory of breeding sows remained high, corresponding to an increase in live - pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms and the resumption of the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises increased short - term supply pressure. The decrease in temperature would boost pork consumption to some extent, but the short - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [5]. Soybean Meal - International market: On November 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96%. As of November 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% in the same period last year, and the estimated Brazilian soybean output was 176.7 million tons. - Domestic market: On November 18, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The short - term arrival of imported soybeans was sufficient, the domestic oil - mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons and needed to be reduced [5]. Shanghai Copper - The US government ended the shutdown, and the Fed took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. In October, China's manufacturing production slowed down. The supply side remained tight, and although traditional consumption areas were weak, strong demand in new - energy vehicles and power - grid construction provided bottom - line support for copper prices [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 18, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 18 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. A 300,000 - spindle cotton - spinning project started in Jinghe County, Xinjiang [5]. Logs - On November 18, the Log 2601 contract opened at 792, with a minimum of 782.5, a maximum of 792.5, and closed at 785, with a daily reduction of 859 lots. The spot - market prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 760 yuan/cubic meter. In October, the log import volume decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6]. Iron Ore - On November 18, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, up 1.41%, closing at 792 yuan. The iron - ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly, the arrival volume decreased, and the molten - iron output stopped falling and increased. The short - term iron - ore price was in an oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - On November 18, the Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.36%, closing at 3,032 yuan. The asphalt supply continued to decrease, the inventory was being reduced, and the terminal demand remained weak due to cold and snowy weather, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [7]. Steel - On November 18, rb2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton. The third round and fifth batch of central environmental - protection inspections started, which might reduce steel supply in the short term and support steel prices [7]. Alumina - On November 18, ao2601 closed at 2,780 yuan/ton. The spot price stopped falling, and downstream procurement accelerated. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the alumina price was in a weak oscillation [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 18, al2601 closed at 21,465 yuan/ton. The end of the US government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate decision. The hawkish stance of the Fed put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The decline in aluminum prices led to a slight recovery in consumption, but high prices still restricted consumption, and the expected increase in aluminum - ingot supply in the off - season increased the pressure of inventory accumulation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tax incentives available for enterprises engaged in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, highlighting specific projects and products that qualify for reduced or exempt corporate income tax rates [12]. Group 1: Tax Incentives for Enterprises - Enterprises involved in the cultivation of flowers, tea, and other beverage crops, as well as spice crops, can enjoy a 50% reduction in corporate income tax [5]. - The initial processing of various agricultural products, including grains, forestry products, horticultural plants, oilseeds, sugar crops, tea, medicinal plants, and aquatic animals, is eligible for corporate income tax exemption [7]. - Enterprises that purchase agricultural products for replanting or breeding can also benefit from tax incentives, provided the products undergo a growth cycle without significant value addition through processing [8][9]. Group 2: Documentation and Compliance - To enjoy the corporate income tax incentives for agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery projects, enterprises must retain specific documentation for verification [10]. - External vouchers for tax deductions include invoices, fiscal receipts, and payment vouchers, which are necessary for substantiating business expenses [17]. - Enterprises in the western development region can simultaneously enjoy the 15% preferential tax rate and other tax incentives if they meet the relevant criteria [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a return of inflation trading, with consumer goods showing a positive trend in performance [1][8] - The overall industry size is significant, with a total market capitalization of 18,186 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 16,721.2 billion [1] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - Retail sales growth year-on-year is at 2.9%, with a slight recovery in October due to the holiday effect, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.16% [6] - The restaurant sector saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.8% in October, while jewelry sales surged by 37.6% [6][7] - Service retail sales grew by 5.3% year-on-year from January to October, indicating a gradual recovery in service consumption [7] Food and Beverage Sector - October inflation data exceeded expectations, with both CPI and PPI showing improvements, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability for the food and beverage sector [8] - Companies like Haidilao and Anjuke are expected to perform well due to improved demand and operational strategies [9][10] Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing stable overseas demand, with major brands like NIKE showing signs of recovery [12] - Recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers with optimized order structures and production efficiency [12] Tobacco Sector - The report recommends companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, highlighting their stable growth and market positioning [16] Home Appliances Sector - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods manufacturers like Midea Group, which has shown stable operational performance [17] Retail and E-commerce - The report notes a significant increase in e-commerce sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with a total sales growth of 14.2% [24] - Companies like JD.com are expected to maintain robust growth, with a projected non-GAAP net profit of 318 billion for 2025 [25] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, recommending companies like Innovent Biologics and 3SBio for their strong project pipelines [27] Agriculture Sector - The report indicates a rapid reduction in sow production capacity, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 [28]