1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference were successively held. The policy orientation of the Politburo meeting returned to "strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment", and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. The bond market yield declined overall but with a limited range. The bond market's reaction to the meetings was generally positive but still full of concerns [1][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing policy project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. In 2026, the deficit rate may remain at 4%, and the implementation of "two new" policies and "two important" projects will be optimized [1][11]. - Monetary policy support may increase, aiming to achieve stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Policy tools will be used more flexibly and efficiently, and measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may cooperate with fiscal policy [2][11]. - The bond market's rise this year may be restricted by multiple factors, including concerns about ultra - long - term treasury bond supply, inflation expectations, and institutional behavior. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, important meetings led to an increase in expectations of loose monetary policy, and the bond market generally recovered. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds both declined by 1bp. The yield first decreased and then increased during the week [9]. - Fiscal policy will maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. Monetary policy support will increase, aiming for economic growth and price recovery [11]. - The bond market's rise may be restricted by multiple factors. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used cautiously, and the curve may steepen. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and the funding rate declined. From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 47 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 decreased by 2bp and 3bp respectively compared to December 5th [19][21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first decreased and then increased. The yields of key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads widened. As of December 12th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively [28][29]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The weekly turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds rebounded to 43%, the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds remained basically unchanged. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [20][33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rose. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was negative, and the average issuance rate increased [47][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In November, export growth rebounded, and the year - on - year increase in CPI expanded. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was 5.9%, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.7% [57]. - The increase in social financing in November was higher than the same period last year, but household credit remained weak. Since December, new - home sales have weakened, while movie consumption has remained stronger than the seasonal average [58]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The Fed completed its interest - rate cuts this year, and internal differences intensified. The bond markets in France and Germany declined, and most emerging markets also fell [67][68]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: live pigs > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > China bonds > CSI 300 > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > US dollar > Rebar > Crude oil [3][74]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple departments held meetings to convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as risk prevention, financial support for key areas, and high - quality development [78][82]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the bond trading business guide, optimizing specific bond element display and adding non - trading transfer business [83].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall impact of the recent Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference on the bond market is neutral, with short-term market dynamics expected to remain weak until after the New Year [7][29] - The monetary policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, with potential for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, while fiscal policy is likely to remain stable with limited incremental content [9][12][19] - The report highlights that the bond market's upward pressure on interest rates may be lower than that experienced in overseas markets during fiscal expansion periods, with a focus on domestic economic stability and gradual adjustments [20][25] Group 2 - The report notes that the bond market's response to the conference announcements was muted, as the market's buying power is weak at year-end, leading to insufficient momentum for significant bond purchases [27][29] - It is suggested that the bond market may experience fluctuations due to the lack of strong buying forces, with a recommendation to maintain a cautious trading strategy in the current environment [29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the relationship between stock and bond markets, as well as localized inflation pressures, which could influence bond market dynamics in 2026 [25][29] Group 3 - The weekly review indicates a mixed performance in bond yields, with various maturities showing slight fluctuations, and a net issuance of bonds amounting to 12,959 billion yuan [30][32] - The report highlights the differentiation in yield spreads across various bond types, with most government bond spreads expanding, while credit spreads exhibited varied movements [42][43] - The analysis of market sentiment reveals that the bond market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, influenced by external economic factors and policy announcements [34][41]

证券研究报告 分化格局，更宜求稳 ——2026年信用债年度策略 证券分析师 刘 璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 张君瑞 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519080001 2025年12月14日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 摘要 2025年信用利差压缩，低等级利差大幅压缩，说明2025年信用债市场以"合"为大势。国开债收益率上升，信用债收益率上行相对较少；信用利差 多压缩，其中低等级和1Y压缩最多。趋势上看，中高等级信用利差上半年压缩下半年有所分化，低等级信用利差以下行趋势为主。2025年信用债供 给弱于利率债，需求相对平稳，信用风险进一步降低，支撑了信用利差、尤其是低等级信用利差的压缩。 2026年信用债不具备走熊的基础，但信用利差或有一定的走阔风险，分化或有所增大。（1）从绝对收益角度看，目前信用债收益率和信用利差偏 低，但3年期投资级信用债的套息空间接近50BP，考虑到26年或有1-2次降息，信用债不具备走熊的基础，因此信用债仍具有票息价值。（2）从相 对收益角度看，26年信用债供需格局或不如利率债。2026年信用债供给或边际提升，利率债或持平，信用债相对于利率债供给或增加。需求方面， 理 ...

Primary Market - In the past two weeks (December 1-12, 2025), a total of 25 offshore bonds were issued by Chinese entities, including 6 RMB bonds, 15 USD bonds, and 4 HKD bonds, with issuance scales of 2.745 billion RMB, 2.835 billion USD, and 2.58 billion HKD respectively [1] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 740 million RMB by Kaifeng Cultural Tourism Investment Group [1] - The highest coupon rate for RMB bonds was 5.9%, issued by Chengdu Dongjin Huai Prefecture New City Investment Group [1] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 600 million USD by China Minmetals Corporation, with the highest coupon rate of 5.19% issued by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development [1] Secondary Market - As of December 12, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond composite index increased by 0.09% to 250.91, while the investment-grade USD bond index rose by 0.01% to 243.96, and the high-yield USD bond index increased by 0.77% to 241.4 [2] - The real estate USD bond index rose by 1.37% to 178.04, the city investment USD bond index increased by 0.16% to 153.69, and the financial USD bond index rose by 0.23% to 290.35 [2] Benchmark Spread - As of December 12, 2025, the spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the US widened to 232.79 basis points, an increase of 1.74 basis points from the previous week [3] Rating Changes - Several credit rating adjustments occurred in the past two weeks, including the withdrawal of ratings for various companies such as Taixing Jiangqiao Investment Development Co., Ltd. and Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. [6] Domestic News - The first offshore bond issuance by a non-bank financial institution in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was completed, with an issuance amount of 500 million RMB and a coupon rate of 1.8% [7] - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 7 billion RMB of government bonds in Hong Kong, with a subscription multiple of 5.22 times [8] - Shenzhen's first batch of green foreign debt pilot projects has been launched, with total signed amounts exceeding 170 million RMB [8] - The first QFI commodity futures transaction using government bonds as collateral was successfully completed [9] Overseas News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75% [10] - The Federal Reserve reappointed 11 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, alleviating personnel uncertainty concerns [11] Default and Extension - New City Holdings completed the issuance of 1.75 billion RMB of medium-term notes [12][13] - Agile Group faced a winding-up petition from creditors, with a hearing scheduled for February 2026 [14] - CIFI Group announced plans to repurchase bonds totaling up to 220 million RMB [15] - Fantasia Group announced a suspension of all outstanding bonds starting December 15, 2025, for debt repayment arrangements [15]

第 516 期 2025-12-10 焦点关注 债券市场高质量发展大会首设资产证券化专场会议 12月17日至19日，2025债券市场高质量发展大会将在郑州举办。其中，12月17日上午的首场先行论坛聚焦资产证券化主题，这也是债市大会创办两年来首次 单独设立资产证券化专场会议。 作为2025债券市场高质量发展大会的首场先行论坛，资产证券化专场会议旨在响应国家"盘活存量资产"政策要求，推动企业优化融资结构、拓宽融资渠道， 聚焦REITs、CMBS、保理债权ABS等资产盘活工具，邀请交易商协会专家、交易所专家以及投资机构、评级机构、证券公司等机构嘉宾，通过政策解读、 案例解析、圆桌对话等形式，助力企业"变资产为资本"。 河南力争2026年民企债券融资超200亿元 12月10日，大河财立方记者从2025河南省民营经济高质量发展系列主题新闻发布会上获悉，河南省委金融办将开展银行间债券市场增量提质行动，加强民营 企业发债主体培育和项目储备，建立主办银行机制，加大债券承销、投资力度，引导增信公司为民营企业发债提供信用增进，力争2026年民营企业债券融资 超200亿元。 财政部拟发行两期到期续作特别国债，规模合计7500亿元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in UK government bond yields, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.3 basis points to 4.517% and a total increase of 4.0 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield decreased by 2.4 basis points to 3.747%, with a weekly decline of 3.4 basis points, influenced by the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate cuts and treasury purchase plans [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield increased by 6.1 basis points to 5.268%, showing a total weekly rise of 7.4 basis points, while the 50-year yield rose by 5.9 basis points to 4.737%, with a weekly increase of 6.1 basis points [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds increased by 5.535 basis points to +76.685 basis points, with a total weekly rise of 7.264 basis points [1]

Group 1: U.S. Stock Funds - U.S. stock funds experienced a turnaround with a net inflow of $3.3 billion for the week ending December 10, recovering nearly the $3.52 billion net outflow from the previous week [1] - Sector-wise, U.S. equity sector funds saw a net inflow of $2.81 billion, marking the largest single-week inflow since late October [1] - The metals and mining, industrials, and healthcare sectors performed notably well, attracting net inflows of $672 million, $548 million, and $527 million respectively [1] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Sector - Despite the overall positive sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations, investment interest in the artificial intelligence sector has cooled [1] - Oracle's latest earnings guidance fell short of expectations, heightening concerns about the slowing profit growth of AI companies [1] - This indicates that investors are becoming more cautious in evaluating high-valuation tech stocks amidst the easing expectations, shifting focus towards traditional sectors that benefit from the economic cycle and lower interest rates [1] Group 3: Bond Funds - The bond market also saw significant uplift due to interest rate cut expectations, with U.S. bond funds recording a net inflow of $3.49 billion, a substantial increase from the previous week's $291 million [2] - There was a structural shift in fund allocation, with intermediate and short-term investment-grade bond funds receiving a net inflow of $2.61 billion, reaching a seven-week high [2] - Conversely, general domestic taxable fixed income funds experienced a net outflow of $902 million [2] Group 4: Money Market Funds - The money market showed a clear sign of fund redirection, with a net outflow of $4.58 billion after a strong inflow of $105.03 billion the previous week [2] - This shift reflects a typical asset allocation adjustment logic during a monetary policy easing cycle, as investors move funds from low-yield cash assets to riskier assets like stocks and bonds [2]

2025.12. 12 本文字数：1498，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 陈益刊 为了支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用，地方政府债券额度明显向其倾斜。 根据财政部近期披露的地方政府债券市场报告（2025年10月），今年前10个月全国36个省市（自治 区、直辖市、计划单列市）发行了新增债券约4.7万亿元。其中，广东地区（不含深圳）、山东地区 （不含青岛）、浙江地区（不含宁波）、江苏、四川发债规模稳居前五。这五个省份经济总量也位居 全国前五。 今年年初，中国确定全国地方政府新增债券发行规模为5.2万亿元；10月，财政部额外给地方增加了 0.2万亿元新增（专项）债券用于项目建设。这意味着，今年全年新增债券发行规模约5.4万亿元。 根据企业预警通数据，截至12月11日，全国地方发行新增债券规模约5.3万亿元，占全年预计发债规 模比重约98%，新增债券发行接近尾声。其中，广东（约4966亿元）、山东（约3667亿元）、浙江 （3429亿元）、江苏（3101亿元）、四川（约2818亿元）新增债券发行规模依然稳居前五，合计 约1.8万亿元，占当年已发行新增债券总额比重约34%。 地方政府新增债券主要用于项目建设。在地 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Interest rate bonds: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 96.51 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 188.68 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funds prices showed mixed trends. During December 1 - 7, 2025, 43.0717 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds were issued, with total repayments of 51.0485 billion yuan and a net financing of - 7.9767 billion yuan. Long - term treasury bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP [1]. - Credit bonds: From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, totaling 93.1004 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Credit bond yields to maturity increased. For example, among urban investment bonds, the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increased the most, by 7.79BP [2]. - Observation of major asset classes: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, US bond yields mostly increased, the US dollar index weakened, non - US currencies strengthened, crude oil prices rebounded during the week, and gold futures and spot prices showed divergence [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Decline, Mixed Fund Movements - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net withdrawal was 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank and exchange funds prices showed mixed trends. For example, DR001 decreased by 0.30BP to 1.3003%, and DR007 decreased by 2.88BP to 1.4380% [16]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Net Financing, Decline in Local Bond Issuance - From December 1 to 7, 2025, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was - 7.9767 billion yuan. Treasury bonds raised 22.3 billion yuan, policy - based financial bonds raised 9.9 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance decreased, raising 10.8717 billion yuan [25]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, long - term treasury bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 34.94BP to 37.66BP [32]. 2. Credit Bonds: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Issuance Volume Compared with the Previous Period - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of issuance number, and financial bonds accounted for the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. The issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year range, and the construction industry had the largest number of bond issuances [44]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, urban investment bond yields to maturity increased, with the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increasing the most, by 7.79BP. Among medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year yield of AA + rating increased the most, by 4.74BP [54]. 2.3 One - Week Review of Credit Default Events - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 1 enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [56]. 3. Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rise - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, and Asia - Pacific stock indexes generally rose [57]. 3.2 Most US Bond Yields Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, most US bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 12.00BP to 53.00BP [60]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakens, Non - US Currencies Strengthen - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and non - US currencies strengthened. For example, the British pound against the US dollar increased by 0.77%, and the euro against the US dollar increased by 0.37% [64]. 3.4 Crude Oil Rebounds During the Week, Gold Futures and Spot Prices Diverge - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices decreased by 0.62%, London spot gold prices increased by 1.24%, Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.87%, and WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.61% [66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, ultra - long - term bonds are experiencing increased volatility. The reasons may include the transmission of market sentiment caused by the credit risks of bonds like those of Vanke, trading congestion, and changes in policy expectations. The bond market in the next week may focus on policy games and changes in the capital market. Investors are recommended to pay attention to the policy signals from the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the results of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting. They should focus on the support level of around 1.85% for 10 - year treasury bonds. If policies exceed expectations, they can appropriately shorten the duration. Ultra - long - term bonds need to avoid short - term fluctuations and wait for central bank policy signals. For credit bonds, focus on the allocation value of Tier 2 capital bonds and long - duration credit bonds [70].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the credit bond market, particularly the dynamics of corporate bonds and the impact of regulatory changes on investment strategies in 2025 and 2026 [1][4][9]. Key Points and Arguments Credit Market Performance in 2025 - The credit market is expected to show a stair-step resistance to declines, with short-term credit bonds outperforming interest rate bonds [2]. - The yield curve for both interest rates and credit has undergone a reshaping process, with secondary perpetual bonds steepening significantly, approximately 10 basis points higher than medium-term notes [2]. - The market can be segmented into phases, with notable trends including a tightening of funds at the beginning of the year, stabilization in late March to early April, and a significant demand for technology innovation ETFs from May to July [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Net financing for credit bonds in 2025 is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, primarily driven by state-owned enterprise (SOE) bonds, while local government bonds are expected to continue a trend of reduced issuance, estimated at around 200 billion yuan [1][4]. - SOEs are showing clear signals of increasing leverage, with private enterprises experiencing a shift from negative to positive financing for the first time since 2021 [1][4][6]. - The demand side is dominated by wealth management products and funds, although the proportion of credit assets held by wealth management has decreased, leading to a slight decline in absolute holdings [1][4]. Outlook for 2026 - The credit bond market in 2026 is anticipated to face challenges, with both supply and demand expected to weaken, but the degree of supply weakening is not expected to match that of demand [5]. - The incremental issuance of local government bonds is expected to be minimal, around 200 to 300 billion yuan, which can be considered negligible [5]. - SOEs are expected to continue increasing leverage, indicating ongoing demand for financing [6]. Financial Bonds and Regulatory Impact - The supply of financial bonds, including Tier 2 capital bonds, is expected to be weaker in 2026 compared to 2025, primarily due to the regulatory timeline for TLAC compliance, which has a two-year buffer [7]. - The issuance of secondary perpetual bonds is projected to be low, with no significant hard issuance demand anticipated [8]. Impact of Redemption Regulations - New redemption regulations may lead to significant redemptions of short-term bond funds held by institutions, particularly affecting wealth management products that hold approximately 6 to 7 trillion yuan in pure bond funds [3][9]. - The net asset value management will shift wealth management products towards lower volatility assets, reducing the demand for long-duration credit bonds [10]. Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on medium to long-term credit assets with maturities of 3 to 5 years, while waiting for market adjustments before engaging in long-end bond trading opportunities [11]. Additional Important Insights - The overall market environment for 2026 is expected to be more challenging, with potential structural reshaping in the credit market [5]. - The performance of long-duration bonds, particularly secondary perpetual bonds, may be adversely affected due to reduced demand from institutional investors like insurance companies [11].