截至发稿，中远海能(01138.HK)涨7.46%、中国船舶租赁(03877.HK)涨3.21%、海翔海运(02510.HK)涨 1.69%。 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 4 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面大幅下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 | 国内糖价小幅上调 5 | | 油脂板块：美国 | 45z 拟议规则出台，带动油脂上涨较多 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：恐慌情绪有所缓和，仍可作为多头配置 15 | | 金银：金银市场回暖，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：风险释放后行情企稳 贵金属谨慎参与低多机会 1 ...

中远海能（600026）(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.58%，报14.85港元，成交额7522.98万港元。 中信证券表示，2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，该 行预计年化VLCC运价中枢将落在60000美元/天-75000美元/天。周期上行兑现期下，VLCC运价弹性释 放有望带动明年船队利润快速增长。短期看，季节性运输淡季临近，建议择机布局。国泰海通认为，油 运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首季业绩将同比大增。该行预 计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。 消息面上，据市场媒体报道，马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服 务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。据了解，自2023年末开始，红海海域发生多起袭击事 件，此后航运公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易 通道。与此同时，马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支 持。 ...

中信证券表示，2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，该 行预计年化VLCC运价中枢将落在60000美元/天-75000美元/天。周期上行兑现期下，VLCC运价弹性释 放有望带动明年船队利润快速增长。短期看，季节性运输淡季临近，建议择机布局。国泰海通认为，油 运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首季业绩将同比大增。该行预 计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。 消息面上，据市场媒体报道，马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服 务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。据了解，自2023年末开始，红海海域发生多起袭击事 件，此后航运公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易 通道。与此同时，马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支 持。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.58%，报14.85港元，成交额7522.98万港 元。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the near - term, under the influence of Maersk's stable February quotes, March rush - shipping expectations, April off - season expectations, and long - term contract price suppression, the 04 contract is expected to oscillate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract, and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. In the future, focus on the PA alliance's quotes and geopolitical situations [3]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the off - season and negative factors. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to anchor, and they will oscillate widely within a reasonable range. Under geopolitical fluctuations, cautious operations are advised [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of contracts such as EC2602 (1737.8, +1.03%), EC2604 (1237.9, +4.50%), EC2606 (1533.7, +1.36%), EC2608 (1597.9, - 0.62%), and EC2610 (1128.6, - 0.12%) are presented. Their corresponding trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes are also provided [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between contracts like EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606, along with their comparisons with previous days and weeks, are given. For example, the spread of EC2502 - 2604 is 499.9, with a day - on - day change of - 35.5 and a week - on - week change of 9.9 [2]. - **Indicators**: The updated frequency, release dates, and values of indicators such as the Super Crystal Index (1792.14, - 3.61% from the previous period) and SCFI (1418, - 11.10% from the previous period) are shown [2]. Spot Situation - Downstream is currently booking cargo space for early February. The overall cargo collection of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased. The price center in Week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. From Week 8 - 9, Maersk's opening price is 1950 US dollars, unchanged from the previous period, and other shipping companies' quotes remain the same for now [4]. News - On February 3, Maersk and HPL decided to resume a route of the GEMINI alliance on the Suez Canal. Starting from mid - February 2026, structural changes will be made to Maersk's ME11 service, redirecting it to the Red Sea and Suez Canal [5]. - On February 4, the Israeli Prime Minister met with a US envoy to discuss the Iran issue. The meeting lasted over three hours, and the Israeli Prime Minister expressed a firm stance on issues such as Hamas's disarmament and Gaza's demilitarization [5]. - US media reported on February 3 that an American - flagged oil tanker was approached by six Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker continued its journey under the escort of a US warship [6].

格隆汇2月4日丨招商轮船(601872.SH)涨1.82%，报11.730元，股价创历史新高，总市值947.14亿元。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: February 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment of commodity futures improved, driving the recovery of EC futures. However, from the perspective of the variety's fundamentals, the peak stage of pre - Spring Festival rush demand has passed, and spot freight rates will enter a downward channel. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to continue the off - season performance, and the relatively high shipping capacity in March limits the possible rebound. Geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots and boost the sentiment of far - month peak - season contracts. It is recommended to short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The improvement of commodity futures sentiment drove the recovery of EC futures. The peak of pre - Spring Festival rush demand has passed, and spot freight rates are expected to decline. For example, the pre - Spring Festival quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route by Maersk was around $2100 - 2170 per big container, dropping to $2000 after the Spring Festival. The 2 - month quote of OCEAN Alliance is in the range of $2293 - 2430, and that of Premier Alliance is about $2035 in February and $2535 in March. Considering the slow resumption of work after the Spring Festival and the upcoming traditional off - season in April, it is difficult to maintain high prices. The shipping capacity in March is relatively high in the off - season, limiting the rebound. Geopolitical conflicts may boost the sentiment of far - month peak - season contracts [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8]. 2. Industry News - **Container Shipping Market Adjustment**: From January 26 to January 30, the Chinese export container shipping market continued to adjust. The overall demand for ocean routes was weak, and market freight rates declined, dragging down the comprehensive index. On January 30, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1316.75 points, a 9.7% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's January composite PMI was 51.5, lower than market expectations. Economic growth momentum slowed down, and shipping demand was weak. On January 30, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1418/TEU, a 11.1% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, with spot market booking prices continuing to decline. On January 30, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2424/TEU, a 12.0% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014. Shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and spot market booking prices continued to adjust. On January 30, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to US West and US East basic ports were $1867/FEU and $2605/FEU respectively, with decreases of 10.4% and 10.0% from the previous period [9][10]. - **Geopolitical News**: The US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan, but there were differences between Netanyahu and Trump. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen warned Saudi Arabia against military actions [10]. 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: The SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on February 2, 2026, was 1792.14, a 3.6% decrease from January 26; the SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 1101.4, a 14.9% decrease from January 26 [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: Provided trading data for EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts on February 3, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][23]

马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红海 及苏伊士运河运输。 2023年末，红海海域发生多起袭击事件（胡塞武装称此举是为声援加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人），此后航运 公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易通道。 马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支持。 马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红海 及苏伊士运河运输。 2023年末，红海海域发生多起袭击事件（胡塞武装称此举是为声援加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人），此后航运 公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易通道。 马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支持。 声明称："两家航运公司将采取尽可能最高级别的安全防护措施，船员、船只及客户货物的安全始终是 双方的首要任务。" 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 声明称："两家航运公司将采取尽可能最高级别的安全防护措施，船员、船只及客户货物的安全始终是 双方的首要任务。" 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The settlement price of the SCFIS European Line released on Monday slightly exceeded market expectations, driving the near - month futures to slightly repair the discount. The market is in a vacuum period of spot trading, and the futures trend is oscillating and slightly strong. The 2026/2/3 closing price of EC2604 was 1,237.9 points, up 4.5% from the previous trading day [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the prices of major shipping companies have declined to varying degrees. From a fundamental perspective, the demand is gradually entering a downward phase after peaking, and the supply in March has increased compared to the previous week's schedule. Geopolitical situations are volatile, and the resumption of large - scale shipping on the European Line in the first half of the year is still difficult. The impact of bad weather on shipping schedules is expected to vary in different regions. Spot freight rates are expected to have limited fluctuations around the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the decline rate after the festival [7]. - Regarding trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading of the 04 contract due to many short - term disturbances and large expected fluctuations. For arbitrage, a rolling operation of the long 6 - short 10 spread is recommended [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Contract Quotes - EC2602: The closing price was 1,737.8, up 17.8 (1.03%), with a trading volume of 612 (up 108.16%) and an open interest of 1,883 (down 19.50%) [4]. - EC2604: The closing price was 1,237.9, up 53.3 (4.50%), with a trading volume of 29,296 (down 10.73%) and an open interest of 34,229 (up 1.25%) [4]. - EC2606: The closing price was 1,533.7, up 20.6 (1.36%), with a trading volume of 3,147 (down 47.06%) and an open interest of 13,458 (up 6.83%) [4]. - EC2608: The closing price was 1,597.9, down 10.0 (- 0.62%), with a trading volume of 353 (down 68.79%) and an open interest of 1,479 (up 2.00%) [4]. - EC2610: The closing price was 1,128.6, down 1.4 (- 0.12%), with a trading volume of 1,355 (down 45.89%) and an open interest of 7,677 (down 2.63%) [4]. - EC2612: The closing price was 1,439.0, up 34.0 (2.42%), with a trading volume of 29 (down 27.50%) and an open interest of 128 (up 5.79%) [4]. 3.1.2 Month - spread Structure - For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 500, down 35.5; the spread of EC02 - EC06 was 204, down 2.8, etc. [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line: The price was 1792.14 points, down 3.61% week - on - week and 21.20% year - on - year [4]. - SCFIS US West Line: The price was 1101.40 points, down 14.91% week - on - week and 55.24% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Comprehensive Index: The price was 1316.75 points, down 9.68% week - on - week and 38.20% year - on - year [4]. - Other routes such as Shanghai - West Africa, Shanghai - South America, etc., also showed varying degrees of decline in freight rates [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - WTI Crude Oil Near - month Contract: The price was $61.45 per barrel, down 5.72% week - on - week and 14.82% year - on - year [4]. - Brent Crude Oil Near - month Contract: The price was $65.49 per barrel, down 6.22% week - on - week and 13.4% year - on - year [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.4.1 Market Analysis - The SCFIS European Line settlement price on Monday exceeded expectations, mainly due to the impact of shipping schedule delays. It is expected that the index will still lag behind [6]. - In the spot market, the freight rates of major shipping companies have decreased. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March has increased. Geopolitical situations are unstable, and bad weather affects shipping schedules [7]. 3.4.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for the 04 contract due to short - term disturbances and large expected fluctuations [8]. - Arbitrage: A rolling operation of the long 6 - short 10 spread is recommended [9]. 3.5 Industry News - The US and India agreed to establish a trade agreement. The US will reduce the reciprocal tariff on India from 25% to 18%, and India will gradually eliminate tariffs and non - tariff barriers against the US [10]. - From the 6th week (February 2 - 8) to the 10th week (March 2 - 8), 103 out of about 704 scheduled flights were cancelled, accounting for 15% of the planned flights. Cancellations were mainly on the Trans - Pacific Eastbound route (59%), followed by the Asia - Europe/Mediterranean route (33%) and the Trans - Atlantic Westbound route (8%) [10]. 3.6 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Comprehensive Index, and container freight rates of different routes, as well as the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [11][17][19]

（原标题：VLCC航运费用飙升! 霍尔木兹阴云压顶叠加运力吃紧 TD3C日收益狂飙61.6%） 智通财经APP获悉，本周，在全球各国对于伊朗以及整个中东地区紧张局势的担忧与大型原油运输船舶 供应极度紧张之势相互叠加，共同推高海上航运定价之际，从中东向中国运输原油的大型油轮收取了两 个月来最高规模的航运费。 根据波罗的海交易所发布的数据，基准TD3C航线上一艘大型船舶的航运日收益在周一上涨5.1%，至接 近每日级别的报价12.9万美元，为自11月下旬以来的最高水平。此次上涨发生在上周五航运价格暴涨 61.6%之后，当日随着全球投资者们对于可能由美国主导且针对这个伊斯兰共和国的新一轮军事行动的 担忧加剧，市场情绪趋于紧张。 对于外国大型航运船舶来说，更加严峻的是，当天，有关伊朗政府考虑进行海陆空实弹演习的报道令市 场愈发不安;与此同时，有新闻媒体报道称，拥有全球最大规模油轮船队的希腊已警告大型船舶们在通 过霍尔木兹海峡时远离伊朗海岸，这一警告也使得那些处于航线进程的油轮们选择绕道，甚至直接暂时 停止接收需要穿越霍尔木兹海峡的任何运输行程订单。 如以下的图表所示，中东至中国油轮运价在伊朗紧张局势下飙升——VLCC( ...