Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]

安全不是转型的"成本"，而是基石。 王为人说，随着全球贸易的持续增长和海洋经济的蓬勃发展，海上交通流量日益密集，安全的风险也交织叠加，当前面临的挑战更加复杂多元。为此，上海 未来将持续夯实海上安全基础，强化风险源头管控与过程监管，全面提升应急救助能力。 在此基础上，上海还将深入推进运输结构与能源结构的调整，以绿色燃料加注等为切入点发展绿色航运，加快构建绿色低碳供应链体系；加强智慧船舶、智 能港口等重点领域科技创新，加快提升智慧运营和数字化服务水平，以科技进步赋能航运的安全保障效率；不断深化开放合作，共建绿色航运走廊，共同打 造绿色、高效、韧性的国际航运网络。 交通运输部救助打捞局局长、中国海上搜救中心副主任王雷表示，安全是一切发展的根基与前提。而安全、绿色、发展三者融合共生，共同驱动着行业变 革。"绿"与"智"的深度融合，为海上安全保障提供了强大的技术支撑。 "'安全为基，绿智转型'，既是航运未来的发展方向，也是义务和责任。"徐伟说，国际海事组织减排战略持续深化，《海上自主水面船舶规则》草案架构基 本完成，航运绿色、智能转型已从政策要求转变为港航业生存发展的必答题。船舶行业技术密集、人员密集、资金密集，航运绿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is in a strong oscillation. The EC main contract rose by over 7% due to the Ministry of Commerce's countermeasures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., triggering concerns about the supply of shipping capacity. The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage, with the first round of price - holding in late October showing initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding is expected in the next two months. The strategy is to wait and see. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading, and November empty sailings [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1310, up 12.92% from the previous value of 1160 [3] - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 973, down 4.11% from the previous value of 1015 [3] - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 1936, up 31.88% from the previous value of 1468 [3] - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 862, down 1.60% from the previous value of 876 [3] - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 2853, up 16.35% from the previous value of 2452 [3] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1145, up 7.21% from the previous value of 1068 [3] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1031, down 1.43% from the previous value of 1046 [3] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 1613, up 3.53% from the previous value of 1558 [3] 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the prices have different degrees of increase, with the increase ranging from 0.29% to 3.68% [3] - **Contract Holdings**: For contracts such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., the holdings have different degrees of change, with the change ranging from a decrease of 91 to an increase of 442 [3] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads have decreased by 24.1, 22.7, and 3.8 respectively [3] 3.3 Market News - **US - Israel Relations**: US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the Gaza war cease - fire agreement, but there are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5] - **Egypt's Shipping Loss**: Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5] - **US Tariff Policy**: The US may soon announce a long tariff exemption list, and intense lobbying is expected [5] - **US - China Tariff Relations**: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the US - China tariff war [5] - **Middle East Peace Process**: White House envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to the Middle East on Sunday night to follow up on the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5] - **IMO's Decision**: The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will discuss the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Merchants Industry Holdings Co., Ltd. (中远海发) has shown positive performance with a year-to-date increase of 3.15% and a recent uptick in trading activity, indicating potential investor interest and market confidence [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.258 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 970 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.36% [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 7.48 billion yuan in dividends, with 2.411 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of October 21, the stock price reached 2.65 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 174 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.68%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 34.974 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen significant trading activity, with a net inflow of 26.196 million yuan from main funds and notable buying from large orders [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 280,500, up by 6.79% from the previous period, indicating growing investor interest [2]. - The largest circulating shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, reduced its holdings by 21.719 million shares, while the Southern CSI 500 ETF increased its holdings by 7.4724 million shares [3]. Business Overview - China Merchants Industry Holdings Co., Ltd. specializes in container manufacturing, leasing, and shipping services, with container manufacturing accounting for 89.43% of its main business revenue [2]. - The company is categorized under the transportation and shipping industry, with involvement in various concepts such as RCEP, maritime transport, and the Belt and Road Initiative [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, the SCFIS slightly exceeded expectations. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract is expected to trade in different rhythms, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5]. - The counter - measure of China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European line [3]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage opportunity currently [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 20, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1522.00, EC2604 is 1155.10, EC2606 is 1330.30, EC2608 is 1440.30, EC2510 is 1100.10, and EC2512 is 1682.00. The 10 - month contract has a high open interest, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract focuses on the actual implementation of price increases in November, and the trading rhythm is expected to follow the pattern of trading price increase expectations and actual implementation [4][5][6]. 2. Spot Price - On October 17, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1145 dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 1936 dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the US) was 2853 dollars/FEU. On October 20, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1140.38 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 863.46 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to October 2025, 211 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU. As of October 17, 2025, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 963,800 TEU, and 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 218,840 TEU. The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There were 4 blank sailings and 4 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [2][6]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is discussing the next - stage content of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, and has handed over the remains of Israeli hostages to the Red Cross. There is a counter - measure between China and the US regarding port fees for related ships, but it has a relatively small impact on the European line [2][3]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is no specific analysis of demand and European economy data in the content provided, but it can be inferred that the shipping companies' supply - side adjustment for freight rates is related to the need to prepare for the next - year long - term contract negotiation to ensure stable revenue [4][5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economy showed a steady upward trend in the first three quarters of 2025. In the production industry, fixed - asset investment declined slightly, but equipment and tool purchase investment had double - digit growth, and high - end manufacturing investment was prominent. In the service industry, the real estate market showed signs of improvement, and shipping and aviation industries had changes in schedules and prices [1][2]. - Different sectors in the industry had various trends. Upstream industries like glass and some agricultural products had price changes; mid - stream industries such as chemical and energy sectors had fluctuations in开工率 and consumption; downstream industries like real estate and services also had different performance [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Production Industry - From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, and a 0.07% decline in September compared to the previous month. Equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 14.0% year - on - year. In terms of industrial structure, the primary industry investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year, the secondary industry investment increased by 6.3%, with industrial investment up 6.4% and manufacturing investment up 4.0%. High - end manufacturing sectors like automobile manufacturing and railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing had significant investment growth of 19.2% and 22.3% respectively [1]. Service Industry - In September 2025, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, housing prices in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow, and the number of cities with year - on - year increases in new - home prices rose. Some cities like Beijing and Shanghai showed positive trends in the real estate market. The 2025 winter - spring flight schedule was implemented from October 26, with domestic flight times contracting for two consecutive seasons, with 1.0% and 1.8% declines in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Global shipping giants raised freight rates on multiple routes by 600 - 2000 US dollars per container from October 15 [2]. Industry Overview - Upstream - In the black industry, glass prices dropped significantly. In the agricultural industry, egg prices rose slightly, while pork prices declined [3]. Industry Overview - Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate remained stable at a high level, while the polyester and PTA operating rates were low. In the energy industry, power plant coal consumption decreased [4]. Industry Overview - Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to decline. In the service industry, the number of domestic flights increased slightly [5]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - On October 20, various commodities had different price changes. For example, in the agricultural sector, the spot price of eggs increased by 4.59% year - on - year, while the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 4.11%. In the energy sector, the spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 2.97%, while the spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 2.30% [36].

①航空物流：波罗的海空运价格指数环比下降，同比下降。②航运港口：内贸集运运价 指数上升，干散货运价上升。③快递物流：2025年8月快递业务量同比上升12.29%，快递业 务收入同比增加4.24%。④航空出行： 2025年10月第二周国际日均执飞航班1865.71次，环比-4.44%，同比 中银证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远 洋航线运价上涨。航空方面沃兰特VE25-100eVTOL成功完成首轮试飞，三大航9月运营数据 释放积极信号。物流与交通新业态方面，京东物流与宁德时代达成战略合作，9月多家快递 公司"量价齐升"。 以下为研究报告摘要： 航运方面，中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上涨。航空方面 沃兰特VE25-100eVTOL成功完成首轮试飞，三大航9月运营数据释放积极信号。物流与交通 新业态方面，京东物流与宁德时代达成战略合作，9月多家快递公司"量价齐升"。 核心观点 ①中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上涨。10月16日，上海航 运交易所发布的CTFI指数报1791.28点，较10月9日上涨27.3%。本周VLCC市场中东航线 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the earnings per share forecast for Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) by an average of 7% for 2025 to 2027, reflecting strong performance in the spot market in Q4 of this year, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating due to reasonable valuation levels and uncertain prospects for the dry bulk market in 2026 [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The average earnings per share forecast for Pacific Basin Shipping has been increased by 7% for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for the company has been raised from HKD 2.4 to HKD 2.75 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The third quarter performance of Pacific Basin Shipping was generally in line with expectations, with slightly weak freight rates during the period [1] - However, there has been an improvement in locked-in freight rates for Q4 [1] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The company believes it should be exempt from paying port fees in the US and China, but there remains uncertainty in the regulatory environment [1] - Further discussions between the company and regulatory authorities are needed to assess whether this risk has been eliminated [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the earnings per share forecast for Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) by an average of 7% for 2025 to 2027, reflecting strong performance in the spot market in Q4 this year, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating due to reasonable valuation levels and uncertain prospects for the dry bulk market in 2026 [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The average earnings per share forecast for Pacific Basin Shipping has been increased by 7% for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price has been raised from HKD 2.4 to HKD 2.75 [1] - The company's Q3 performance was generally in line with expectations, with slightly weak freight rates, but an improvement in locked-in freight rates for Q4 [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The company believes it should be exempt from paying port fees in the US and China [1] - However, there remains uncertainty in the regulatory environment, and further discussions with regulatory bodies are needed to assess whether this risk has been eliminated [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bohai Ferry's stock price increased by 0.63% on October 20, with a trading volume of 39.23 million yuan, indicating a stable market performance despite a net financing outflow [1] Financing Summary - On October 20, Bohai Ferry had a financing buy amount of 3.62 million yuan and a financing repayment of 3.88 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 263,400 yuan [1] - The total financing and securities balance for Bohai Ferry reached 141 million yuan, accounting for 3.13% of its market capitalization, which is above the 50th percentile level over the past year [1] - The company had a low short-selling balance of 202,200 yuan, with a short-selling volume of 9,000 shares and a repayment of 1,500 shares on the same day [1] Business Performance - For the first half of 2025, Bohai Ferry reported an operating income of 728 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 102 million yuan, down 2.95% year-on-year [2] - The company's main business revenue composition includes passenger roll-on/roll-off transport at 87.91%, cargo roll-on/roll-off transport at 12.02%, and other services at 0.07% [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, the number of Bohai Ferry shareholders increased by 1.48% to 24,300, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 1.45% to 19,326 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.12 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 924 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - New institutional shareholders include several funds, with notable holdings from Invesco and GF Fund Management [3]