金融期货早评 宏观："十五五"首个中央一号文件公布 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。2）美联储理 事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止 100 个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的 表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需 保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。3）澳洲联储宣布加息 25 个基点至 3.85%，为 2023 年以来的首次加息，成为 2026 年首个加息的主要发达经济体央行。4）一位白宫官员表示， 美联储理事米兰已辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职。5）中央一号文件《中共中央国务院 关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》发布。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】2 月市场迎来关键变量，美联储主席提名人选的鹰派立场引发降 息延后预期，叠加英国经济韧性显现，英央行 5 月前降息概率显著下降，但该流动性调整 仅为短期预期修正，欧美货币宽松的宏观背景未变。从产业与政策维度看：战略矿产与新 能源产业链，受美国关键矿产储备政策、中国供给侧管控双重支撑，铜、稀土及碳酸锂、 多晶硅等新能源标的供需缺口长期存在；人工智能产业在政策与技术驱动下 ...

南方财经2月4日电，截至发稿，中远海能涨8.24%、中国船舶租赁(03877.HK)涨3.21%、中远海发 (02866.HK)涨1.83%。财通证券发布研报称，在当前外贸原油运输行业高景气背景下，油运公司迎来一 轮业绩释放机遇。且中期来看，伴随上游扩产&地缘事件&制裁收紧利好供需，运价中枢有望保持上 涨，从而给予油运企业更大的业绩弹性空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159266) experienced a net redemption of 4.0133 million yuan on February 3, ranking 38th out of 212 in cross-border ETF net outflows [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - As of February 3, the latest size of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159266) is 562 million yuan, down from 564 million yuan the previous day, with a net outflow of 0.71% of the previous day's size [1] - Year-to-date, the fund's shares have decreased by 9.58% and its size has decreased by 8.03% compared to December 31, 2025, when the shares were 616 million and the size was 611 million yuan [2] Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount for the ETF is 254 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 12.6913 million yuan [2] - In the 22 trading days this year, the cumulative trading amount is 266 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 12.0983 million yuan [2] Group 3: Fund Management and Holdings - The current fund managers are Liu Tingyu and Cai Leping, with Liu managing the fund since July 23, 2025, achieving a return of 0.96%, while Cai has managed it since November 5, 2025, with a return of -1.82% [2] - Major holdings in the fund include China COSCO Shipping, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Sinopec Engineering, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others, with respective holding percentages and market values detailed [2]

截至发稿，中远海能(01138.HK)涨7.46%、中国船舶租赁(03877.HK)涨3.21%、海翔海运(02510.HK)涨 1.69%。 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 4 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面大幅下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 | 国内糖价小幅上调 5 | | 油脂板块：美国 | 45z 拟议规则出台，带动油脂上涨较多 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：恐慌情绪有所缓和，仍可作为多头配置 15 | | 金银：金银市场回暖，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：风险释放后行情企稳 贵金属谨慎参与低多机会 1 ...

中远海能（600026）(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.58%，报14.85港元，成交额7522.98万港元。 中信证券表示，2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，该 行预计年化VLCC运价中枢将落在60000美元/天-75000美元/天。周期上行兑现期下，VLCC运价弹性释 放有望带动明年船队利润快速增长。短期看，季节性运输淡季临近，建议择机布局。国泰海通认为，油 运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首季业绩将同比大增。该行预 计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。 消息面上，据市场媒体报道，马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服 务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。据了解，自2023年末开始，红海海域发生多起袭击事 件，此后航运公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易 通道。与此同时，马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支 持。 ...

中信证券表示，2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，该 行预计年化VLCC运价中枢将落在60000美元/天-75000美元/天。周期上行兑现期下，VLCC运价弹性释 放有望带动明年船队利润快速增长。短期看，季节性运输淡季临近，建议择机布局。国泰海通认为，油 运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首季业绩将同比大增。该行预 计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。 消息面上，据市场媒体报道，马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服 务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。据了解，自2023年末开始，红海海域发生多起袭击事 件，此后航运公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易 通道。与此同时，马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支 持。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.58%，报14.85港元，成交额7522.98万港 元。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the near - term, under the influence of Maersk's stable February quotes, March rush - shipping expectations, April off - season expectations, and long - term contract price suppression, the 04 contract is expected to oscillate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract, and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. In the future, focus on the PA alliance's quotes and geopolitical situations [3]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the off - season and negative factors. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to anchor, and they will oscillate widely within a reasonable range. Under geopolitical fluctuations, cautious operations are advised [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of contracts such as EC2602 (1737.8, +1.03%), EC2604 (1237.9, +4.50%), EC2606 (1533.7, +1.36%), EC2608 (1597.9, - 0.62%), and EC2610 (1128.6, - 0.12%) are presented. Their corresponding trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes are also provided [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between contracts like EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606, along with their comparisons with previous days and weeks, are given. For example, the spread of EC2502 - 2604 is 499.9, with a day - on - day change of - 35.5 and a week - on - week change of 9.9 [2]. - **Indicators**: The updated frequency, release dates, and values of indicators such as the Super Crystal Index (1792.14, - 3.61% from the previous period) and SCFI (1418, - 11.10% from the previous period) are shown [2]. Spot Situation - Downstream is currently booking cargo space for early February. The overall cargo collection of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased. The price center in Week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. From Week 8 - 9, Maersk's opening price is 1950 US dollars, unchanged from the previous period, and other shipping companies' quotes remain the same for now [4]. News - On February 3, Maersk and HPL decided to resume a route of the GEMINI alliance on the Suez Canal. Starting from mid - February 2026, structural changes will be made to Maersk's ME11 service, redirecting it to the Red Sea and Suez Canal [5]. - On February 4, the Israeli Prime Minister met with a US envoy to discuss the Iran issue. The meeting lasted over three hours, and the Israeli Prime Minister expressed a firm stance on issues such as Hamas's disarmament and Gaza's demilitarization [5]. - US media reported on February 3 that an American - flagged oil tanker was approached by six Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker continued its journey under the escort of a US warship [6].

格隆汇2月4日丨招商轮船(601872.SH)涨1.82%，报11.730元，股价创历史新高，总市值947.14亿元。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: February 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment of commodity futures improved, driving the recovery of EC futures. However, from the perspective of the variety's fundamentals, the peak stage of pre - Spring Festival rush demand has passed, and spot freight rates will enter a downward channel. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to continue the off - season performance, and the relatively high shipping capacity in March limits the possible rebound. Geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots and boost the sentiment of far - month peak - season contracts. It is recommended to short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The improvement of commodity futures sentiment drove the recovery of EC futures. The peak of pre - Spring Festival rush demand has passed, and spot freight rates are expected to decline. For example, the pre - Spring Festival quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route by Maersk was around $2100 - 2170 per big container, dropping to $2000 after the Spring Festival. The 2 - month quote of OCEAN Alliance is in the range of $2293 - 2430, and that of Premier Alliance is about $2035 in February and $2535 in March. Considering the slow resumption of work after the Spring Festival and the upcoming traditional off - season in April, it is difficult to maintain high prices. The shipping capacity in March is relatively high in the off - season, limiting the rebound. Geopolitical conflicts may boost the sentiment of far - month peak - season contracts [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8]. 2. Industry News - **Container Shipping Market Adjustment**: From January 26 to January 30, the Chinese export container shipping market continued to adjust. The overall demand for ocean routes was weak, and market freight rates declined, dragging down the comprehensive index. On January 30, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1316.75 points, a 9.7% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's January composite PMI was 51.5, lower than market expectations. Economic growth momentum slowed down, and shipping demand was weak. On January 30, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1418/TEU, a 11.1% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, with spot market booking prices continuing to decline. On January 30, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2424/TEU, a 12.0% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014. Shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and spot market booking prices continued to adjust. On January 30, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to US West and US East basic ports were $1867/FEU and $2605/FEU respectively, with decreases of 10.4% and 10.0% from the previous period [9][10]. - **Geopolitical News**: The US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan, but there were differences between Netanyahu and Trump. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen warned Saudi Arabia against military actions [10]. 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: The SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on February 2, 2026, was 1792.14, a 3.6% decrease from January 26; the SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 1101.4, a 14.9% decrease from January 26 [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: Provided trading data for EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts on February 3, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][23]