行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货冲高回落，主力尾盘收 93520，总持仓量下降 96376 手，盘后广期所 上调 2601 交易手续费，给市场过热交投热情降温。现货电碳涨 1250，澳矿涨 60， 云母涨 125，6F 涨 3500，电解液持平，三元涨 200-300，铁锂涨 300，短期产业 链继续涨价，不过盘面相对现货涨幅过大，期现价格有回归压力 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：股掌柜风哥） 回顾：锂矿今天低开高走，尾盘大幅度回拉，碳酸锂主连期货价格冲击10万/吨大关，融捷股份反包涨 停！！！ 锂矿分支板块目前是属于拉升--分歧--再拉升的格局，上升趋势保持完好，持续关注。 热点1：AI应用 不过历史股性一般，还是以回踩关注为主。 热点2：英伟达海外链---CPO+PCB 北京时间周四（明天）早上5点，英伟达出财报。 先看一下摩根大通最新研报：英伟达即将公布的财报会大超预期，Q3营收有望突破500亿美元，Q4更可 能冲到630亿到640亿美元，直接超过华尔街机构们615亿的共识。 利好1）百度11月18日发布2025年第三季度财报，显示季度总营收312亿元，百度核心营收247亿元。三 季度，百度首次披露AI业务收入，显示同比增长超50%。 利好2）上线仅一天，阿里干问App已冲入App Store免费应用总榜前四，排名超越DeepSeek。 利好3）虚拟数字人：我国虚拟数字人领域首项国家标准发布，标志着产业迈入高质量发展阶段。 利好4）抖音广告：字节成立中国交易与广告部门，抖音生服技术负责人王奉坤负责。 利好5）经济日报发文：《智能体技术加快多场景应用》 应用 ...

今日外出税局办事，写文有点晚了。 大A早上来回震荡，午后开始拉高，能够反转当下局势，继续震荡或者是4000点之后再度走高呢？ 有这种可能性，别掉以轻心，随便就能够把你给甩了。 不过，这个位置我完全没有想法。万一，我说万一，进去之后继续大幅杀跌，那我找不到招架之力。 等待最合适的机会再出手，依旧是我炒股的首要原则。大家根据能力圈，该上则上，不该上就等等。 第三：CRO连续大跌3天 第一：锂矿、硅料全面反攻 创下新高后，感觉CRO有点吃不消了，大跌3天，龙头更是天天走低。 这个位置去玩，无异于玩火。我宁愿静观其变。 别的不说了，网络环境好严格，视频都发不出去，希望大家多学习，提高独立判断思维，不要上当受骗。我任何时候，都没空也没想法主动联系大家！ 我是李聪，10年读书会主理人，活到老、学到老，关注我，一起向上成长！ 一个奇怪的数据大家参考下，截止到现在A股继续涨，涨幅超0.4%，不过盘面待涨家数只有4000多家，上涨的有1000来家。自己感受下。 板块上： 过去大家爱理不理，或者躲得远远，近两月，锂矿硅料成为两市最靓的仔，没有之一。 这不就是一个周期循环吗？你在低位不敢坚守，高位又匆匆忙忙，怪谁呢？ 第二：银行继 ...

Group 1: QDII and Market Trends - Several QDII funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 index have issued premium risk warnings, indicating that their secondary market trading prices are significantly higher than the reference net asset values [1] - The price of domestic gold jewelry has rebounded above 1290 yuan per gram, with notable increases from various brands, reflecting a halt in the previous downward trend [1] - Flash memory prices have seen a substantial increase, with the highest rise reaching 38.46%, indicating a strong demand in the semiconductor market [1] Group 2: AI Toy Market Growth - The AI toy market in China is projected to grow to 29 billion yuan by 2025, driven by advancements in materials and technology, as well as the popularity of interactive AI toys among young consumers [2] Group 3: Price Surge in Down Jackets - Due to a cold wave, the price of duck down has surged from 170,000 yuan per ton to 580,000 yuan, significantly impacting the cost of down jackets [2] Group 4: Corporate Announcements - Dongfang Electric's subsidiary plans to establish a joint venture with Anhui Waneng Energy, with a registered capital of approximately 1.857 billion yuan [3] - Guangyuyuan announced the resignation of its vice president due to work adjustments, effective immediately [4] - Tianyin Holdings received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a stock issuance to specific investors [5] - Liyuan Technology plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.03% due to operational needs [6][7] - Kanglongda's shareholder intends to reduce their stake by up to 3% through various trading methods [8] Group 5: Regulatory Actions and Market Responses - Jieqiang Equipment received a corrective order from the Tianjin Securities Regulatory Bureau due to internal control deficiencies [9] - Jinyuan Co. has seen its stock rise significantly, attributed to the increase in lithium carbonate prices, although the product is still in the trial production phase [10] - Yangguang Nuohuo's acquisition of Jiangsu Langyan Life Science has been accepted for review by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [10] - Puluo Pharmaceutical plans to repurchase shares worth between 180 million and 360 million yuan [11] - Dafeng Industrial won a bid for a stage equipment project worth 165 million yuan, representing 8.97% of its projected annual revenue [12] - Neusoft Group received a notification to supply intelligent cockpit controllers for a major automotive manufacturer, with a total contract value of approximately 4.2 billion yuan [13] - HeFu China has completed its stock trading anomaly investigation and will resume trading on November 20 [14] Group 6: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.18%, with over 4100 stocks declining, indicating a mixed market sentiment [15]

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年11月19日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 锂矿端，本月到港锂精矿数量预计偏多，可缓解市场锂矿端的紧张格局；供给方面，盐湖产能释放将持续为 锂盐市场补充供给，而"枧下窝复产速度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规 模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求端当前表现强劲，磷酸铁锂、三元材料、六氟磷酸锂等核心电池材料价格持 续上行，直观反映出市场对碳酸锂的需求韧性；从历史经验来看，临近12月时，下游动力电芯排产会出现季 节性环比减少情况，当前市场核心焦点同时聚焦于储能电芯排产能否弥补动力电芯排产的下滑，具体需根据 排产情况判断。假设，若整体下游排产环比减量有限，则仍符合市场预期；但若减量超预期，则可能引发市 场波动，削弱市场对短期需求的信心，进而导致碳酸锂价格震荡承压。 . 此外，11月底仓单集中注销情况亦需重点关注：若仓单数量出现大幅减少，则很有可能引发市场对持仓量和 仓单数量的炒作，进而对碳酸锂 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3946.74 points, up 0.18%, with a trading volume of 720.9 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index remained flat at 13080.09 points, with a trading volume of 1005 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3076.85 points, up 0.25%, with a trading volume of 463.65 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 1344.80 points, down 0.97%, with a trading volume of 45.5 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume in both markets was 1725.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 200.12 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included non-ferrous metals, insurance, precious metals, oil and petrochemicals, and beauty care [3] - Active concepts included aquaculture, lithium mining, prepared dishes, organic silicon, gold, and marine economy [3] - Weak sectors included real estate, media, retail, building materials, computer, pharmaceutical biology, environmental protection, and machinery equipment [3] Stock Performance - A total of 1148 stocks rose, while 3945 stocks fell, with 67 stocks remaining flat and 8 stocks suspended [3] - 65 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 35 stocks hit the daily limit down [3] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 34.842 billion yuan [6] - The net outflow from the ChiNext was 11.803 billion yuan, while the net outflow from the CSI 300 was 4.569 billion yuan [6] - Five sectors saw net inflows, with the defense and military industry receiving the most at 2.258 billion yuan [6] Individual Stock Highlights - 1895 stocks experienced net inflows, with 69 stocks receiving over 1 billion yuan in net inflows [10] - New Yi Sheng had the highest net inflow at 0.956 billion yuan, followed by Hai Lu Heavy Industry and Ningde Times [10][11] - 3265 stocks faced net outflows, with 129 stocks seeing over 1 billion yuan in net outflows [14] - Li Ou shares had the highest net outflow at 1.012 billion yuan, followed by Hua Sheng Tian Cheng and BYD [14][15] Institutional Activity - Institutional net buying totaled approximately 6.4077 million yuan, with the highest net purchase in Dawei shares at about 190.18 million yuan [18][19] - Other notable net purchases included Xuan Ya International and Zhongfu Tong [18]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that lithium carbonate futures prices have reached 100,000 yuan per ton, driven by both supply-demand fundamentals and increased capital inflow, with a recent shift towards price-driven momentum [1] - The current market sentiment is characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises, focusing primarily on essential needs, resulting in minimal overall market transactions [1] Group 2 - The table lists various companies with their respective stock performance, showing significant price increases, with融围股份 (Rongwei Co.) leading at a 10% increase and a total market value of 16.4 billion yuan, while大中矿业 (Dazhong Mining) shows an impressive year-to-date increase of 283.10% [2] - Other notable companies include天齐锂业 (Tianqi Lithium) with a market value of 105.9 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 95.58%, and赣锋锂业 (Ganfeng Lithium) with a market value of 154 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 114.43% [2]

Market Overview - The recent sell-off in AI technology stocks continues, with the Nasdaq down 1.21%, affecting market sentiment, and Asian markets showing narrow fluctuations as they await Nvidia's earnings report [1][3] - A significant reduction in trading volume was observed in the A-shares market, with total turnover falling below 1.8 trillion [1] AI Sector Insights - Despite the market's focus on Nvidia's performance, even a positive earnings report may not resolve the existing market divisions regarding AI, as concerns linger about the sustainability of capital investment in AI over the next three years [3] - The recent decline in global AI tech stocks is part of a broader financial market adjustment cycle, with a notable drop in speculative stocks and small-cap shares [5] Google and AI Developments - Google released its Gemini3 model, which has shown significant performance improvements, indicating ongoing evolution in AI technology [7] - Market expectations suggest that Google is positioned as a leader in AI, with its hardware and software capabilities potentially making it a future winner [7] Lithium Market Performance - Lithium futures prices surged past 100,000 for the first time since June 2024, with significant gains in lithium mining stocks [7] - Specific lithium contracts showed notable price increases, with some contracts rising over 5% [8] Seafood Sector Reaction - Following China's announcement to suspend imports of Japanese seafood, the A-share seafood sector experienced a surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [9][11] Xiaomi's Financial Performance - Xiaomi reported better-than-expected earnings, yet its stock price fell nearly 5%, dropping below the critical 40 HKD mark, reflecting a cumulative decline of over 30% from its yearly high [12]

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index closing in the green. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion, a decrease of 200.2 billion from the previous trading day. Over 4,100 stocks fell in the market [1] Sector Performance - The aquaculture sector saw a collective surge, with stocks like Zhongshui Fishery and Guolian Aquatic reaching their daily limit. Longjiang Securities predicts a significant recovery in China's aquaculture industry by 2025, with major aquatic product prices rebounding to historical highs. For instance, the price of grass carp reached 14 yuan/kg, up 25% from the beginning of the year [2] - The military industry sector was active, with stocks such as Jianglong Shipbuilding and Yaxing Anchor Chain hitting their daily limit. Dongwu Securities anticipates a dual turning point for the defense and military sector in 2025, moving towards high-quality development driven by order fulfillment and performance [2] - The lithium sector became active again, with stocks like Jinyuan Co. and Rongjie Co. hitting their daily limit. The price of lithium carbonate futures rose nearly 5%, breaking the 100,000 yuan/ton mark for the first time since June 2024. Zhongyou Securities believes that China's energy storage industry has established a sustained growth cycle of 3-5 years [3] Individual Stocks - Speculative trading showed slight recovery, with stocks like Zhenai Meijia and Jiumuwang achieving six consecutive limits. However, high-priced stocks continued to decline, with several stocks hitting their daily limit down. There is an expectation for some short-term recovery as market sentiment may rebound after recent declines [6] Key Events and Trends - The flash memory market has seen significant price increases, with the highest increase reaching 38.46%. For example, the price of 1Tb QLC rose by 25% to $12.50 [10] - The cold wave has led to a surge in down feather prices, with the price of duck down increasing from 170,000 yuan to 580,000 yuan per ton. This has resulted in a significant rise in production costs for down jackets [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index closing in the green. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 4,100 stocks fell across the market [1] Sector Performance Aquaculture Sector - The aquaculture sector saw a collective surge, with stocks like Zhongshui Fishery and Guolian Aquatic reaching their daily limit. Longjiang Securities predicts a significant recovery in China's aquaculture industry by 2025, with major aquatic product prices rebounding to historical highs. For instance, the price of grass carp reached 14 yuan/kg, up 25% from the beginning of the year [2][3] Military Industry Sector - The military sector showed strong performance, with stocks such as Jianglong Shipbuilding and Yaxing Anchor Chain hitting their daily limit. Dongwu Securities forecasts a dual turning point for the defense and military sector in 2025, transitioning into a high-quality development phase driven by order fulfillment and performance [2] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium sector became active again, with stocks like Jinyuan Co. and Rongjie Co. hitting their daily limit. The price of lithium carbonate futures rose nearly 5%, breaking the 100,000 yuan/ton mark for the first time since June 2024. Zhongyou Securities anticipates a sustained growth cycle for China's energy storage industry over the next 3-5 years, driven by the demand from AI data centers [3] Individual Stocks - In individual stock performance, speculative trading saw a slight recovery, with stocks like Zhenai Meijia and Jiuwu Wang achieving six consecutive limits. However, high-profile stocks like Furui Co. and Dongbai Group continued to decline, with several hitting their daily limit down [5] Future Market Analysis - The market showed signs of divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index slightly up, but over 4,000 stocks continued to decline. There is a potential for short-term recovery, but the market remains under pressure. Key sectors to watch for a rebound include new energy and technology, which are critical for market sentiment [7] Market News Highlights 1. Flash memory prices have surged significantly, with the highest increase reaching 38.46%. For example, the price of 1Tb QLC rose by 25% to $12.50 [9] 2. Due to a cold wave, the price of duck down has skyrocketed from 170,000 yuan to 580,000 yuan per ton, significantly impacting the cost of down jackets [9]