Market Overview - The US stock market experienced slight fluctuations with major indices showing mixed results, as investors remain cautious due to trade policy uncertainties under President Trump's latest tariff threats [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 165.6 points, a decrease of 0.37%, closing at 44,240.76 points; the S&P 500 index dipped by 4.46 points, down 0.07%, ending at 6,225.52 points; while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 5.95 points, an increase of 0.03%, closing at 20,418.46 points [1] Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, only 5 sectors closed higher, with the energy sector leading the gains at 2.72%, benefiting from rising international oil prices [2] - The utilities and consumer staples sectors saw the largest declines, both dropping over 1% [2] Key Events - President Trump announced via social media that tariffs will be implemented starting August 1, 2025, following a delay from July 9 [2][3] - Market strategist Carol Schleif noted that the market is holding its breath for more details on tariffs, despite frequent policy signals causing disturbances [4] Technology Sector - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising by 1.11% to a record high of $160 per share, pushing its market capitalization above $3.9 trillion; however, Netflix, Amazon, and Google all fell by over 1% [5] - Tesla's stock increased by 1.3% [5] Chinese Stocks - Most popular Chinese stocks saw gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.71%; iQIYI surged over 3%, while JD.com and New Oriental both rose over 2%, and Alibaba increased by 1.62% [6] Individual Stock Highlights - Moderna, a vaccine manufacturer, surged by 8.8%, becoming the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 index amid criticisms of the US vaccine policy [7] - The renewable energy sector faced pressure after Trump directed federal agencies to review tax credits related to wind and solar energy, leading to declines in stocks like SunRun (down 11.4%) and Enphase Energy (down 3.6%) [7] Commodity Market - Copper stocks generally rose, with Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold increasing by 2.53% and Taseko Mines rising by 4.26%, following Trump's consideration of a 50% additional tax on copper imports [8] - The price of copper on the New York market spiked by 16% at one point [9] - In the broader commodity market, WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.59% to $68.33 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.82% to $70.15 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell by 0.77% to $3,316.9 per ounce [9]

Group 1 - European stock markets initially outperformed US markets in early 2025, but US markets have since caught up, with the Stoxx 600 index up 6.6% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 6.8% [1] - The euro has appreciated by 14% against the US dollar this year, maintaining a currency advantage for Europe [4] - The technology sector has rebounded significantly, with a 24% increase since early April, driven by strong earnings forecasts from CEOs [5] Group 2 - Despite the S&P 500 reaching historical highs, some investors remain cautious, indicating potential overvaluation in US stocks, while European market valuations appear more reasonable [8] - The defense sector in Europe has surged by 50% this year, indicating investor caution as it contributes over 50% of returns despite only representing 16% of the Stoxx 600 index [11] - The euro is nearing a four-year high against the dollar, reversing earlier predictions of depreciation, as foreign investors adjust their strategies [14] Group 3 - Currency fluctuations are making European stocks cheaper for US investors, while US stocks are becoming more expensive for European investors, affecting overall market dynamics [17] - The Stoxx 600 index, when priced in dollars, reached a historical high in late June, despite not returning to its March peak in local currency [17]

当地时间7月3日，欧美股市全线上涨。受美国独立纪念日假期影响，美股提前收盘，美股三大指数均上 涨， 纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均创历史新高 。英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数 均小幅上涨。 美股大型科技股涨跌不一， 英伟达创历史新高 。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.40%，虎虎科技国际涨 逾25%，斗鱼、万国数据涨逾10%。 当地时间7月3日，美国劳工部统计局公布的数据显示，美国6月季调后非农就业增14.7万人，预期增11.0 万人，前值从增13.9万人修正为增14.4万人。 美国非农数据发布后，纽约现货黄金价格跌近1%，国际原油价格小幅下跌。 纳斯达克指数、标普500指数创历史新高 当地时间7月3日，美股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨0.77%、纳斯达克指数上涨 1.02%、标普500指数上涨0.83%，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均创历史新高。 | L | w 全球 | | | --- | --- | --- | | A股 REITs 港股 | 美股 | 商品 外 三 | | 美洲市场 它 | | | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 44828.53 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time closing highs, driven by strong employment data indicating a resilient labor market [1][4]. Economic Data Summary - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing analysts' expectations of 110,000, marking a 33% increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% [5][6]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating moderate wage growth that may help alleviate inflationary pressures [5]. - Government sector jobs increased by 73,000, primarily in state and local education, while healthcare added 39,000 jobs [6]. - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, a six-week low, but continuing claims remained high at 1.964 million, the highest level since 2021, indicating challenges for some unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [7]. Market Performance Summary - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.72% over the week, while the Nasdaq index increased by 1.62%, and the Dow Jones index gained 2.3%. The Russell 2000 index, which reflects small-cap stocks, saw a 3.41% increase [4]. - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Nvidia rising by 1.3% to a market cap of $3.89 trillion, approaching Apple's record [1]. Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was narrowly passed in the U.S. House of Representatives, projected to increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with the current federal debt at approximately $36.2 trillion [4].

欧元区通胀数据显示出微妙变化。6月年化通胀率从1.9%反弹至2%，恰好触及欧洲央行设定的物价目 标。这一数据与市场预期保持一致，但背后的结构性特征值得关注。服务价格同比上升3.3%，食品和 烟酒价格上升3.1%，而能源价格则下降2.7%。核心通胀率维持在2.3%的水平，表明价格压力仍然存 在。 美国6月ADP就业数据的疲软表现为美联储政策预期带来新的变数。专业和商业服务以及医疗保健和教 育领域的就业岗位下降，成为服务业就业减少的主要原因。ADP首席经济学家理查德森指出，企业在招 聘上的犹豫态度以及不愿意补充离职员工，导致了就业岗位的减少。 这一数据引发了对即将公布的6月非农就业报告的高度关注。瑞银预计6月非农就业人数或仅增加10万 人，失业率或创2021年新高。花旗的预测更为悲观，认为非农就业仅增加8.5万人。如果6月就业数据表 现异常疲软，美联储最早可能在7月份采取降息行动。 美国就业市场的疲软表现与欧元区相对稳定的通胀环境形成对比。这种差异可能为欧元兑美元汇率提供 支撑因素。当前欧元兑美元汇率在1.17-1.18区间波动，市场正在权衡两大央行政策分化的影响。 美股市场的表现也反映出投资者对经济前景的复杂情 ...

金十数据7月4日讯，美股周四提前收盘，道指收涨0.7%，标普500指数涨0.8%，纳指涨超1%。科技股普 遍上涨，英伟达(NVDA.O)涨1.3%，盘中市值一度创历史最高，苹果(AAPL.O)涨0.5%。纳斯达克中国金 龙指数涨0.4%，阿里巴巴(BABA.N)跌1.8%，小鹏汽车(XPEV.N)涨2.6%。 美股收盘：三大股指齐涨，英伟达涨超1% ...

美东时间7月2日，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.02%； 标普500指数涨0.47%，创历史新高； 纳指涨0.94%，创收盘历史新高 。 当地时间7月2日，美国公布6月ADP报告（由美国自动数据处理公司发布的就业数据报告，通常被视为 非农就业数据的先行指标，被称为"小非农"）。私营部门就业人数6月减少3.3万人，创2023年3月以来 最大降幅，而预估为增加9.8万人。 | 新版 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 315.650 | 4.97% | | TSLA.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 157.250 | 2.58% | | NVDA.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 212.440 | 2.22% | | AAPL.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)· | 179.760 | 1.61% | | GOOG.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 491.090 | -0.20% | | MSFT.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in market dynamics on the first trading day of the second half of the year, with investors rotating from strong-performing tech stocks to defensive sectors like healthcare [1][5]. Market Performance - On the first trading day of the second half, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 400 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.82%, indicating a rotation away from tech stocks that had previously led the market [1]. - The AI-related stocks and other tech giants, including Sea Limited, Spotify, and Nvidia, experienced notable declines, with the tech giants index dropping by 1.15% [1][2]. Sector Rotation - The healthcare sector saw a strong rebound, with stocks like Amgen and UnitedHealth Group rising over 4%, and Merck increasing by more than 3% [12][13]. - The consumer discretionary sector also benefited from the rotation, particularly non-essential consumer goods, which had seen significant net selling earlier in the year [13]. Influencing Factors - The market rotation was influenced by several factors, including the start of a new quarter, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and profit-taking ahead of the non-farm payroll data release [5][10]. - Powell's remarks indicated a cautious stance on inflation and suggested that future actions would depend on data, contributing to market volatility [11]. Trading Dynamics - The trading day was characterized as a "violent" unwinding of momentum trades, with a significant sell-off in previously high-performing stocks [10]. - High-profile stocks that had been shorted, such as American Eagle Outfitters and Abercrombie & Fitch, saw price increases, while heavily held stocks like Ralph Lauren performed poorly [14].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility in the first half of 2025, reaching historical highs but facing multiple uncertainties that could impact the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The direction of tariff policies remains a primary concern, with the potential for new market volatility as trade negotiations approach a critical deadline on July 9. Goldman Sachs estimates that even if some harsh tariffs are lifted, the actual tariff rate in the U.S. has risen from 3% at the beginning of the year to 13%, which may continue to increase inflationary pressures and erode corporate profits [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings reports will be crucial, with S&P 500 companies expected to see a 5.9% growth in earnings, and investors will closely monitor how companies manage tariff-related costs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a significant market concern, with Chairman Powell indicating that inflation risks from tariffs are a key factor delaying interest rate cuts. However, the futures market anticipates three rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first potentially in September [3] - The upcoming June non-farm payroll report will be a critical indicator, as any signs of weakness in the labor market could alter rate cut expectations [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Technology Sector - The market is witnessing a shift in style, with technology stocks regaining dominance after an initial pullback. The S&P 500 technology sector led with a 15% increase in Q2, contributing nearly 40% of the index's gains. This concentration raises concerns, as the equal-weighted S&P 500 index only rose by 4%, indicating that most stocks did not keep pace with the leading companies [4] - For the market to maintain its upward trajectory, broader participation beyond the tech giants is necessary [4] Group 4: Valuation Pressures - Valuation pressures are significant, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 reaching 22.2, well above the long-term average of 15.8. Investors are focusing on 2026 earnings expectations, which predict a 14% growth for S&P constituents, as this growth rate will be crucial for supporting valuations [7] - The direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also critical; if fiscal stimulus leads to concerns about deficits and yields spike, stock market valuations could face substantial pressure [7] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain a looming threat, with recent tensions in the Middle East causing temporary spikes in oil prices. Analysts warn that if conflicts escalate and disrupt oil supply, prices could exceed $100 per barrel, potentially triggering a chain reaction [9] - While historical data shows that geopolitical crises have limited long-term impacts on U.S. stock returns, short-term volatility is likely to increase [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in market dynamics on the first trading day of the second half of the year, with investors rotating from strong-performing tech stocks to defensive sectors like healthcare, driven by various factors including profit-taking and macroeconomic commentary from the Federal Reserve [1][2][4]. Market Dynamics - On the first trading day of the second half, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 400 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.82%, indicating a rotation away from tech stocks that had performed well in the first half of the year [1]. - The technology sector's seven giants index dropped by 1.15%, with notable declines in stocks like Sea Limited, Spotify, and Nvidia, which had been significant winners earlier [1][3]. - This marked the largest scale of momentum stock liquidation since January, with AI-related trades experiencing substantial sell-offs [1]. Factors Driving Market Rotation - The market rotation was influenced by the start of the third quarter, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and profit-taking ahead of the non-farm payroll data release [2][4][5]. - Investors were cautious and opted to lock in profits before the key employment report, contributing to the market's volatility [5]. Sector Performance - The healthcare sector showed resilience, with managed care, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices recording gains of 2-3%, as it had underperformed relative to the S&P 500 at the end of the second quarter [8]. - The consumer discretionary sector also benefited from the rotation, with non-essential consumer goods being net sold the most among major brokerage accounts [8]. Comments from Federal Reserve - Powell's remarks indicated a cautious stance on inflation due to tariffs, suggesting that without tariffs, the Fed might have already cut rates again [6][7]. - His comments led to a significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly affecting long-term rates [7].