Summary of Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. Conference Call Industry Overview - The commodity prices are supported by weak demand and supply disruptions, with a stabilization in the market due to improved China-U.S. trade relations [2][3] - The energy metals sector has shown a clear upward trend, particularly driven by the surge in demand for electric vehicles [2] - Energy metals have underperformed the non-ferrous sector by 80% over the past three years, but cobalt prices have increased from 150,000 CNY/ton in 2024 to 400,000 CNY/ton in February 2025, with expectations to reach 500,000 CNY/ton by 2026 [2][5] Company Insights: Huayou Cobalt - Huayou Cobalt's business encompasses cobalt, nickel, and lithium, with cobalt currently reflecting the catalytic effect, while nickel and lithium have not yet significantly contributed to performance [2][5] - The company benefits from the Congolese government's policies and the growing demand for new energy, with minimal downstream impact even if cobalt prices rise to 500,000 CNY/ton [2][6] - The Indonesian project is expected to achieve a production capacity of 220,000 to 240,000 tons next year, including approximately 24,000 tons of cobalt, unaffected by quotas [2][6] Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is driven by energy storage demand, with expectations of achieving supply-demand balance or even shortages by 2026 [2][7] - Despite a recent downturn, lithium prices are stabilizing, and if energy storage demand continues to grow, prices are likely to rise [7] Cost Management and Production Efficiency - Huayou Cobalt has significantly reduced its lithium production costs from 120,000 CNY/ton to 70,000 CNY/ton, with future projections of 60,000 CNY/ton as the sulfate lithium project scales up [4][8] - The company aims for an annual lithium production capacity of 60,000 to 80,000 tons through improved recovery rates and resource utilization [8] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to generate profits of 3 billion CNY each from nickel and cobalt businesses, totaling 6 billion CNY [6] - Plans to increase wet-process capacity by 120,000 tons by 2027 could effectively double the company's output [6] Competitive Advantages - Huayou Cobalt's integrated operational model enhances synergy across upstream metals, midstream precursors, and downstream cathode materials, leading to cost reductions [13] - Strong project execution capabilities and a competitive edge in Indonesian wet-process refining contribute to its market position [13] Future Outlook - The energy metals sector is at a transformative point, with prices expected to rise due to stable demand and marginal supply changes [14] - Huayou Cobalt's integrated operations and financial optimization position it well to capitalize on industry opportunities, indicating significant growth potential and undervaluation in stock price [14]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 盛新锂能（002240） 2025 年三季报点评：Q3 印尼工厂开始出货， 业绩实现扭亏 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,951 | 4,581 | 4,646 | 7,965 | 10,279 | | 同比（%） | (33.96) | (42.38) | 1.41 | 71.43 | 29.06 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 702.24 | (621.58) | (599.74) | 549.63 | 1,002.72 | | 同比（%） | (87.35) | (188.51) | 3.51 | 191.64 | 82.44 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.77 | (0.68) | (0.66) | 0.60 | 1.10 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.04 | (31.67) | (32.83) | 35.82 | ...

从资金流向上来看，当日能源金属板块主力资金净流入1.79亿元，游资资金净流出1.53亿元，散户资金净 流出2599.45万元。能源金属板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 1.02 Z | 1.84% | -6722.36万 | -1.21% | -3514.36万 | -0.63% | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 5062.43万 | 0.99% | -5382.21万 | -1.05% | 319.78万 | 0.06% | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | 4501.73万 | 1.49% | -4139.24万 | -1.37% | -362.49万 | -0.12% | | 000762 西藏矿业 | | 3017.67万 | 5.82% | -2165.60万 | -4.18% | -852.07万 | -1.64% | | 30 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.2% [1][15] - The US core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][17] - Copper prices are experiencing strong performance, nearing $11,000 per ton due to supply concerns and optimistic trade outlooks [3][20] - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association emphasizes the need to prevent "involution" and ensure supply chain security [4][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the nonferrous metals sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index [9] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases, particularly copper, which is projected to continue rising due to supply disruptions [22] - LME copper price was $10,947 per ton, up 3.21% week-on-week, while SHFE copper price was 87,720 yuan per ton, up 3.95% [22][28] Strategic Metals - New policies on rare earth exports are expected to benefit the heavy rare earth sector in the short term [46] Company Recommendations - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining are recommended for investment [53] - In the strategic metals sector, companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Xiamen Tungsten are highlighted for potential growth [54]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the sector [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the precious metals market is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the medium to long term due to inflationary pressures and global liquidity easing, despite recent price corrections [1][34] - For industrial metals, copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and liquidity easing, while aluminum prices are expected to show strong fluctuations due to overseas production cuts and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are projected to see strong price performance driven by positive demand expectations, while cobalt prices are also on an upward trend despite cautious purchasing strategies from downstream buyers [3][25] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. September CPI recorded at 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][34] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined to 53.6, reflecting weak economic fundamentals [1][34] - The report suggests that the recent pullback in gold prices is considered sufficient, and long-term bullish trends remain intact [1][34] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by tight supply due to disruptions in mining and easing liquidity conditions [2] - Global copper inventory increased by 19,400 tons, with Chinese inventory rising by 17,100 tons [2] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry in China is maintaining production levels, while overseas production cuts are expected to support aluminum prices [2] - Nickel demand remains strong, particularly in the battery sector, with prices expected to rise [2] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are showing strong performance, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.4% to 80,000 yuan/ton [3][25] - Cobalt prices are also on the rise, supported by strong demand from the ternary material sector, although purchasing strategies are becoming more cautious [3][25] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao for industrial metals [2][8] - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to seasonal demand and supply disruptions, particularly for copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals like lithium and cobalt are projected to perform well, driven by strong demand in the energy storage market and supply constraints [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to experience price fluctuations in the short term, but long-term trends remain bullish due to central bank gold purchases and weakening dollar credit [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by macroeconomic sentiment and supply disruptions, with the SMM import copper concentrate index at $51.2/ton, down $0.6/ton month-on-month [2]. - Aluminum demand is robust, particularly from the automotive sector, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventory at approximately 618,000 tons, down 9,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - Key companies recommended include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium supply is increasing due to new production lines, while demand from the energy storage market is exceeding expectations, supporting strong prices [3]. - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply concerns from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Chinese companies receiving fewer export quotas than expected [3]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Yichun Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are experiencing short-term volatility due to optimistic international conditions, but long-term outlook remains positive with central bank purchases [4]. - Silver prices are influenced by industrial demand and follow gold's price movements [4]. - Recommended companies include Western Gold and Shandong Gold [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.75 billion yuan, up 47.3% year-on-year [1] - The copper segment showed stable operations with production and sales increasing by 16.8% and 18.1% year-on-year, respectively, while the average market price for copper rose by 5.7% year-on-year [2] - The potassium chloride segment experienced seasonal declines in production and sales in Q3, with production down 33.6% and sales down 30.6% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The lithium segment is expected to recover as the company obtained new mining permits, with annual carbonate lithium production and sales adjusted to 8,510 tons from the original plan of 11,000 tons [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 723 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 35.76% [1] - The investment income for Q3 2025 was 686 million yuan, accounting for 72.1% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2] Segment Analysis Copper Segment - Production for the first three quarters reached 142,500 tons, up 16.8% year-on-year, with sales at 142,400 tons, up 18.1% year-on-year [2] - Q3 production and sales were approximately 49,700 tons each, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 7.1% and 7.3%, respectively [2] Potassium Chloride Segment - Year-to-date production was 702,000 tons, down 7.2% year-on-year, while sales were 784,000 tons, up 9.6% year-on-year [3] - Q3 production was 216,000 tons, down 33.6% quarter-on-quarter, and sales were 248,000 tons, down 30.6% quarter-on-quarter [3] Lithium Segment - Year-to-date production was 6,021 tons, down 35.1% year-on-year, and sales were 4,800 tons, down 53.0% year-on-year [3] - Q3 production was 851 tons, down 71.7% quarter-on-quarter, and sales were 330 tons, down 88.8% quarter-on-quarter [3] Project Progress - The second phase of the Jilong copper mine is on track for production, with successful testing of the second concentrator's selection system [3] - Preparations for the Laos potassium fertilizer project are ongoing, including infrastructure and technical advancements [4]

Market Overview - On October 24, the energy metals sector rose by 0.89%, with Yongxing Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 2.02% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Yongxing Materials (002756) closed at 40.48, with a gain of 4.12% and a trading volume of 232,800 shares, totaling a transaction value of 946 million [1] - BQX New Materials (605376) closed at 56.29, up 3.93%, with a trading volume of 62,700 shares and a transaction value of 351 million [1] - Rongjie Co., Ltd. (002192) closed at 43.58, gaining 3.71%, with a trading volume of 261,000 shares and a transaction value of 1.15 billion [1] - Other notable performers include Tengyuan Diamond (301219) up 2.10%, and Tianqi Lithium (002466) up 1.25% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The energy metals sector experienced a net outflow of 651 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 572 million [2] - The main fund inflows and outflows for specific stocks include: - Tianqi Lithium (002466) had a net outflow of 50.27 million from institutional investors but a net inflow of 69.73 million from retail investors [3] - Yongxing Materials (002756) saw a net inflow of 44.79 million from institutional investors and a net outflow of 56.14 million from retail investors [3] - Rongjie Co., Ltd. (002192) had a significant net outflow of 81.34 million from institutional investors but a net inflow of 84.83 million from retail investors [3]

Core Points - Huayou Cobalt's stock price increased by 2.02% on October 24, reaching 64.02 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.283 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 121.591 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 122.55%, with a 4.17% rise in the last five trading days, 26.60% in the last 20 days, and 46.87% in the last 60 days [1] - Huayou Cobalt's main business includes the research and manufacturing of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials, with revenue contributions from nickel products (34.54%), cathode materials (16.28%), and others [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Huayou Cobalt achieved a revenue of 58.941 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion CNY, up 39.59% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.876 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.835 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Huayou Cobalt had 257,100 shareholders, an increase of 31.78% from the previous period, with an average of 7,328 circulating shares per shareholder, down 15.22% [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 148 million shares, and various ETFs such as Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, with some increasing and others decreasing their holdings [3]

Core Insights - On October 23, 2023, brokerage firms provided target prices for listed companies, with significant increases noted for companies in the pet feed and communication equipment sectors, specifically Guibao Pet, StarNet RuiJie, and Weisheng Information, with target price increases of 61.09%, 50.73%, and 43.78% respectively [1][2]. Target Price Increases - Guibao Pet (301498) received a target price of 118.00 yuan, reflecting a target price increase of 61.09% from the latest closing price [2]. - StarNet RuiJie (002396) has a target price of 39.16 yuan, with a target price increase of 50.73% [2]. - Weisheng Information (688100) has a target price of 51.00 yuan, showing a target price increase of 43.78% [2]. - Other notable companies include China Unicom (600050) with a target price increase of 36.22% and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) with an increase of 33.28% [2]. Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 59 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on October 23, with Tonghuashun (300033) receiving the highest number of recommendations at 5, followed by Guibao Pet with 4, and Meihua Biological (600873) with 3 [3][4]. - The sectors represented include software development, feed, and chemical products [4]. Rating Adjustments - On October 23, only one company, Huayou Cobalt (603799), had its rating upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" by Huayuan Securities [5]. - This indicates a positive outlook for the energy metals sector [5]. First-Time Coverage - Nine companies received first-time coverage from brokerages on October 23, with notable mentions including Innovation New Materials (600361) rated "Buy" by Huayuan Securities, and YunTu Holdings (002539) and Meihua Biological (600873) both rated "Buy" by Global Fortune Financial [6]. - Other companies receiving first-time ratings include Babi Food (605338) and Shengquan Group (108850) [6].