1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risk premium has retreated, and there is adjustment pressure on the futures market. The fundamental situation in the off - season lacks highlights, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. However, uncertainties such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the futures prices may fluctuate sharply. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risk disturbances and the realization of peak - season demand [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Supply shipments have recovered but there are still expectations of disturbances, and the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. With the "Two Sessions" and geopolitical disturbances, there are still uncertainties in the macro - environment. If macro - disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [2][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply - demand situation of the short - term scrap steel market has improved marginally, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for prices, and it is expected to follow the rise of finished - product prices in the short term [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of price cuts in the spot market, the possibility of continuous multiple rounds of cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict continues, it may follow the energy prices and show strength; if it eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][12] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mine production is still restricted, but the high imports of Mongolian coal put pressure on the fundamentals. The spot market is expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are affected by domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict continues, it may follow the crude oil prices and show strength; if it eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][14] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There are resistances in cost transmission, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. Attention should be paid to the risk of high - level callbacks when the futures price rises above the cost line [3][20] - **Silicon Iron**: The fundamental contradictions are limited, but the price increase drive is insufficient. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship marginally. There is a profit space in the current futures market, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level callbacks [3][21] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventories will always suppress prices [3][15] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [3][19] 3.5 Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has loosened, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The fundamental contradictions have not been resolved, and there is still downward adjustment pressure. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [8] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures market oscillates. The high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the spot price has risen slightly. It is expected to follow the rise of finished - product prices in the short term [10] - **Coke**: The futures market sentiment has declined, and the spot market has limited improvement. It is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal and may show different trends depending on the geopolitical situation [12] - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has fallen, and the spot market has average transactions. It is expected to oscillate, and its performance is affected by geopolitical conflicts [14] - **Glass**: The spot production and sales have improved. It is expected to oscillate, and high inventories will suppress prices if production and sales do not improve continuously [15] - **Soda Ash**: The macro - premium has faded, and the price has oscillated and declined. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [19] - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price center has moved down. Attention should be paid to the risk of high - level callbacks [20] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand drive is insufficient, and it is difficult for the futures price to maintain a high level. Attention should be paid to the risk of high - level callbacks [21] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on March 10, 2026, shows that the commodity index is 2572.74, down 0.45%; the commodity 20 index is 2930.42, down 0.23%; the industrial product index is 2509.90, down 0.69% [105] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on March 10, 2026, shows a daily decline of 0.97%, a 5 - day increase of 2.18%, a 1 - month decline of 0.53%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.60% [107]

Fixed Income Research - The overall yield of credit bonds has declined, with credit spreads showing differentiation across various types, particularly widening in the short to medium term while narrowing in the long term [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has significantly increased due to a low base effect, while corporate bonds have seen zero issuance; net financing for credit bonds has increased, with corporate bonds showing negative net financing [2] - The secondary market has experienced a rise in transaction volume, with all types of credit bonds seeing increased trading activity [2] - Despite fluctuations, the overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and a long-term downward trend in yields is expected, suggesting a strategy of increasing allocations during adjustments [2] Real Estate Industry - Continuous optimization of real estate policies by central and local governments is positively impacting the stabilization of the real estate market, transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on quality improvement [3] - The recovery in sales will significantly influence bond valuations, and investors with higher risk tolerance may consider early positioning in companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [3] - The focus for investment should remain on historically stable valuations of high-performing state-owned enterprises and quality private enterprises with strong guarantees, while also considering opportunities in undervalued real estate bonds [3] Metal Industry - The supply of aluminum is expected to tighten due to export disruptions in the Middle East, which may support aluminum prices in the short term [6] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the conflict involving Iran, is influencing various metal prices, with copper prices facing downward pressure due to rising oil prices and a strong dollar [6] - The upcoming disclosure of corporate earnings in March may lead to a verification phase for industry fundamentals, with a focus on sectors supported by geopolitical factors and demand for strategic resources [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment" on economic indicators, suggesting that it may boost January-February data while suppressing March figures, leading to significant fluctuations in economic performance metrics [122][124]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows signs of weakness, with a decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 2.5% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 2.5 percentage points to -0.3% [2][5]. - Steel apparent consumption improved, increasing by 4.4% week-on-week and rising 10.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [2][8]. - The operating rate of the petrochemical chain, particularly for soda ash and PTA, saw a notable recovery, with soda ash operating rates up 1.7% week-on-week and PTA rates up 6.1% [12][14]. Group 2: Construction Industry - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery in production, with a grinding operating rate up 14.7% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 4.9% [20][21]. - Cement shipment rates decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6%, while the cement inventory ratio fell by 1.8% week-on-week [20][25]. - The average price of cement continued to decline, decreasing by 1.5% week-on-week [30]. Group 3: Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing in major cities has decreased, with average daily transaction areas in 30 major cities falling to 9.7% year-on-year [43][46]. - Port cargo throughput and freight volumes related to domestic demand have increased, with railway freight volume up 2.1% year-on-year and highway truck traffic up 20.2% [54][56]. - The number of moviegoers and box office revenue has declined significantly, with movie attendance down 35.4% year-on-year [72][74]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing mixed trends, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 3.9% and 0.6% respectively, while egg prices increased by 1.1% [94][102]. - The industrial price index has risen, with the Nanhua industrial price index increasing by 5.0% week-on-week, driven by an 8.7% rise in the energy and chemical price index [107][111].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Weakly" for the steel industry [1] Core Viewpoints - After the rally and subsequent decline of crude oil, the black market has also declined. The market will focus on the support near the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages and the pressure near this week's high. After the sentiment fades, the market will return to fundamental supply - demand trading, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating weakly pattern. The supply side has started to pick up slightly after the holiday, which supports prices to some extent. The real - estate policies are mainly for inventory reduction and stability, with limited demand growth space, which restricts the upside. The future focus is on the data of apparent demand and whether it can continue to recover, which will drive inventory reduction. The core of the medium - term trend is the recovery strength of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation of real estate and infrastructure. If macro - policies drive downstream demand to recover beyond expectations, prices are expected to rise further; if demand remains weak, high inventory will still suppress prices [5] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the position of the main rebar contract decreased by 9,469 lots. The trading volume shrank significantly compared with the previous trading day, with 795,516 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,091 in the short - term, was near the 30 - day moving average of 3,092 in the medium - term, and was under pressure near the 60 - day moving average of 3,108. With the rally and decline of crude oil, the market returned to fundamentals [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream areas was 3,220 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1] - **Basis**: The futures price was at a discount of 112 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Situation** - **Supply**: In the week of March 5, 2026, the rebar production was 1.7331 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons compared with the previous week, indicating a recovery in steel mills' production enthusiasm [3] - **Demand**: In the week of March 5, 2026, the apparent demand was 982,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176,900 tons, mainly driven by post - holiday resumption of work. However, it was still at a low level compared with the same period in history, indicating that the demand recovery was less than expected. The downward trend in the real - estate industry has not reversed, and the long - term demand is still declining year - on - year [3] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 6.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 699,900 tons (+12.33%); steel mill inventory was 2.3793 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,900 tons (+2.19%); total inventory was 8.7568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 750,800 tons (+9.38%), indicating a significant increase in overall inventory pressure. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage in 2 - 3 weeks, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [3] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real - estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and a bearish capital position structure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices declined today, with overall weak spot steel transactions, a drop in the futures market, and no spot - futures connection, leading to a general weakening of transactions. Last week's data showed a slight increase in the production of the five major steel products, with an increase in rebar production and a shift to increased production in hot - rolled coils. Steel mills are still in the mode of production suspension and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has seasonally recovered, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, especially for rebar, and the inventory is shifting from mill warehouses to social warehouses. The capital availability of downstream construction sites nationwide improved last week, with better capital availability in housing projects than in non - real estate projects. Recently, the pace of fiscal expenditure has accelerated, and the recovery of downstream demand remains to be seen. Steel mills' willingness to resume production is weak, still putting pressure on raw materials in the short term. However, due to large overseas geopolitical frictions and the recent signs of easing in US - Iran relations, energy prices have fallen, and the black metal sector has followed suit. Therefore, steel prices may maintain a volatile trend in the near term, but there is still a chance for steel prices to return to fundamentals in March, and pressure on steel prices remains. Attention should still be paid to hot metal production, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 rose 31 yuan/ton to 3119 yuan/ton, RB10 rose 32 yuan/ton to 3147 yuan/ton, and RB01 rose 33 yuan/ton to 3174 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts and the changes in the spreads are also presented. For example, the spread between RB01 - RB05 increased by 2 yuan to 55 yuan. The rebar's disk profit for different contracts decreased, with the 05 - contract rebar disk profit dropping by 10 yuan to - 151 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Shandong, and Tangshan all increased to varying degrees. The cheapest deliverable product's 05 - contract basis was 71 yuan. The regional price spreads and spot profits also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai rebar and Beijing rebar remained unchanged at 90 yuan, and the adjustment and rolling profit increased by 40 yuan to 50 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Futures**: HC05 rose 40 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, HC10 rose 38 yuan/ton to 3282 yuan/ton, and HC01 rose 28 yuan/ton to 3291 yuan/ton. There were also changes in the spreads between different contracts. The hot - rolled coils' disk profit for different contracts also changed, with the 01 - contract hot - rolled coils' disk profit dropping by 14 yuan to 18 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in Tianjin, Lecong, and Shanghai all increased. The cheapest deliverable product's 05 - contract basis was - 10 yuan. The regional price spreads and spot profits also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai hot - rolled coils and Tianjin hot - rolled coils remained unchanged at 20 yuan, and the Tianjin hot - rolled coils' profit increased by 26 yuan to - 344 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Relevant Prices - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3190 yuan, Beijing Jingye rebar was 3120 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan (down 10 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan (down 10 yuan) [5]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio when the price is high, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. 3.2.3 Important Information - From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%; cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. - According to the data of the General Administration of Customs on March 10, 2026, China's household appliance exports in February 2026 were 35.8985 million units; the cumulative exports from January to February were 80.2852 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [9]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the basis, price spreads, and disk profits of different contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the cash profits of different steel products in different regions and the cost of electric furnaces in East China, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided for the charts [13][14][15]...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - International oil prices have fluctuated sharply, with the price rising to $119.5 and then falling back to $91 due to geopolitical supply - cut expectations and the expectation of the end of the US - Iran war [2] - China's inflation in February rebounded overall, with CPI rising to 1.3% year - on - year and PPI narrowing to - 0.9%. The A - share market is likely to maintain a volatile and sector - differentiated pattern in the short term [3] - Gold prices are expected to show a slightly weakening trend in a volatile manner with limited downward space, while silver prices will remain highly volatile [5] - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [7] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong before the conflict eases and the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked [8] - Alumina prices are under pressure after a brief surge [9] - Cast aluminum is expected to remain strong [10] - Zinc prices are expected to be volatile [11] - Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [13] - Tin prices are expected to be supported by downstream rigid - demand replenishment [14] - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [15] - Steel futures prices are expected to continue to rebound in a volatile manner [17] - Iron ore prices are expected to rebound in a volatile manner in the short term [18] - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to run slightly stronger in a volatile manner [21] - Palm oil prices are expected to run slightly stronger in a volatile manner [23] 3. Summarized by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Oil prices have fluctuated sharply. The market first priced in the "worst - case scenario" due to supply concerns, and then prices fell as G7 and IEA discussed releasing oil reserves and the US considered relaxing sanctions on Russian oil. The US stock market rebounded, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.1%, the US dollar index fell to 98.8, and precious metals and copper prices recovered [2] - Domestic: In February, inflation rebounded. CPI rose to 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI narrowed to - 0.9%. The A - share market was under pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index failing to recover the 4100 mark. The market is likely to be volatile and sector - differentiated in the short term [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.19% to $5148.70 per ounce. Trump's remarks on the progress of the military operation in Iran eased market panic, suppressing gold's rise. The increase in inflation expectations and the strengthening of the US dollar also pressured gold prices. Gold is expected to be slightly weak in a volatile manner [4][5] - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 3.60% to $87.34 per ounce. The improvement in market risk appetite led to a rebound in silver prices, which are expected to remain highly volatile [4][5] 3.3 Base Metals - Copper: LME copper rebounded to around $13000. Multiple factors such as Trump's remarks on the end of the US - Iran conflict, Iran's oil transportation, and G7's plan to release oil reserves led to a recovery in market risk appetite, driving copper prices to rebound. The supply - demand balance of copper is expected to continue in the future, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [6][7] - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum futures rose 1.61%. Although Trump said the war on Iran might end soon, supply concerns still exist, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong before the conflict eases and the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked [8] - Alumina: The futures price rose 3.57%. Although there was a short - term upward drive, due to high inventory, high - level production capacity, and the possible inflow of overseas surplus capacity, the price is under pressure after a brief surge [9] - Cast Aluminum: The futures price rose 1.98%. Supply shortages dominate the market, and cast aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [10] - Zinc: Shanghai zinc futures were volatile. The improvement in market risk appetite reduced the pressure on metals, but the uncertainty in the US - Iran situation and high energy costs provided support. Domestic supply and demand both increased, and zinc prices are expected to be volatile [11] - Lead: Shanghai lead futures were in a low - level consolidation. High inventory suppressed lead prices, but the cost side provided support, and lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [13] - Tin: Shanghai tin futures showed a downward - then - upward trend. Although the supply - side uncertainty decreased, downstream rigid - demand replenishment increased, and tin prices are expected to be supported [14] - Nickel: Shanghai nickel futures were volatile. The improvement in market risk appetite and the recovery of downstream demand, but the lack of independent driving factors, nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [15] 3.4 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: Steel futures rose. Spot market trading volume increased, and demand entered the seasonal release stage. Although supply also increased, the limited profit of steel mills restricted production expansion. Steel prices are expected to continue to rebound in a volatile manner [16][17] - Iron Ore: Iron ore futures rose. Overseas shipments decreased, and domestic steel mills resumed production, increasing demand for iron ore. Although port inventory remained high, iron ore prices are expected to rebound in a volatile manner in the short term [18] 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke: Futures prices fluctuated widely. After the Spring Festival, coking coal supply increased, and inventory accumulated. Coke production recovered, but downstream procurement was cautious. Affected by short - term news, prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [19] 3.6 Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Soybean and rapeseed meal futures prices rose. Brazilian soybean harvesting progress exceeded 50%, and the precipitation in the Argentine soybean - producing area was lower than the average. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased. Affected by market sentiment and funds, prices are expected to run slightly stronger in a volatile manner [20][21] - Palm Oil: Palm oil futures prices rose significantly. Indonesia may restart the B50 biodiesel plan. Affected by oil prices and inventory changes, palm oil prices are expected to run slightly stronger in a volatile manner [22][23] 3.7 Industry Data - The report provides detailed trading data of various metal futures contracts on March 9, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [24] - It also presents the industrial data of multiple commodities on March 9 and March 6, such as inventory, spot prices, and price spreads [25][28][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions are likely to support aluminum prices due to expected supply tightening, while the gold market faces increased volatility due to rising oil prices and geopolitical developments [3][6][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly its impact on market sentiment and commodity prices [7][19]. Industry Summary Steel - Supply and demand have shown some recovery post-holiday, but demand is recovering slower than supply, leading to increased inventory levels. As of March 6, total steel inventory was 19.27 million tons, up 5.54% from the previous period [20][26]. - The production of five major steel products was 7.97 million tons, a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous week, but down 4.44% year-on-year [21][26]. Copper - Copper inventories continue to accumulate, with geopolitical tensions affecting market demand. As of March 6, LME copper prices were $12,800 per ton, down 4.70% from the previous period [44][42]. - The report notes that the ongoing conflict is expected to keep pressure on copper prices due to rising oil prices and a stronger dollar [9][41]. Aluminum - The report indicates that the Middle East's electrolytic aluminum exports are hindered, leading to a tightening supply situation that may support aluminum prices. As of March 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,400 per ton, up 7.21% from the previous period [47][49]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to face challenges due to policy constraints [10][49]. Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold prices, which have been under pressure due to inflation concerns and a stronger dollar. As of March 6, gold prices were $5,181.30 per ounce, down 2.17% from the previous period [53][54]. - The report suggests that investors should closely monitor developments in the Iranian conflict as it may influence market dynamics [53][54]. Lithium and New Energy Metals - The report notes that lithium prices are under pressure due to concerns over energy storage demand amid geopolitical tensions. As of March 6, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 157,000 yuan per ton, down 8.99% from the previous period [59][58]. - The report highlights the potential for price weakness in lithium due to rising oil prices and market uncertainties [58][59]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The report indicates that rare earth prices have declined due to poor demand data from the electric vehicle sector and geopolitical tensions. As of March 6, light rare earth oxide prices were 850,000 yuan per ton, down 4.49% from the previous period [65][66]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor geopolitical developments and downstream demand data for potential impacts on rare earth prices [65][66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral trading returns to a wait - and - see approach; focus on positive arbitrage entry opportunities when the basis partially falls; pay attention to the fluctuation range of the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Adopt a short - long strategy on dips [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral trading is on a temporary wait - and - see; consider establishing long - spot positive arbitrage positions in batches [5][7] - Iron Ore: Wait for the conflict to ease and the crude oil price to fall back before shorting iron ore [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: After the release of market sentiment, be cautious about chasing high prices. The black sector currently has weak supply and demand. In the future, it may enter a stage of high supply and demand. The spillover effect of the energy - chemical sector may drive up coal prices, but after many varieties hit the daily limit on Monday, chasing long positions requires caution [2] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Due to the continuation of geopolitical conflicts, the prices are supported by supply disruptions and cost increases. However, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, high inventory, and strong resistance to price increases. The basis is weakening, so it is not recommended to chase high prices [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Geopolitical conflicts affect the market. The futures market is dominated by geopolitical themes. Market volatility is expected to intensify. Speculators can use call option strategies, and industrial clients can consider establishing long - spot positive arbitrage positions [5] - Iron Ore: With the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, risk assets fluctuate more. It is not recommended to short black varieties, especially coal. There is a certain inventory replenishment expectation, but port inventory is a pressure factor. Wait for the conflict to ease to short iron ore [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On March 9, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3147 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan, 1.29%), HC2610 at 3282 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan, 1.39%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3119 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan, 1.30%), HC2605 at 3270 yuan/ton (up 51 yuan, 1.58%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: On March 9, the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread was 151 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.98 (down 0.02), etc [1] Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On March 9, Shanghai rebar was at 3230 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3280 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), etc. The billet - steel price difference was 270 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On March 9, Ganqimaodu coking fine coal was at 1175 yuan/ton (unchanged), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) at 1480 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Iron Ore**: On March 9, Rizhao Port PB fines were at 779 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan), Shou'an Port Super Special fines at 660 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan) [1] Basis - On March 9, the HC main contract basis was 10 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), the RB main contract basis was 111 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan), etc [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Production resumption is relatively moderate, with the growth rate of the resumption rate narrowing compared to the same period last lunar year. The resumption of real - estate projects is better than that of non - real - estate projects, showing a "faster in the south, slower in the north" pattern. Industrial production resumption is also mild, and the marginal change in the national production rhythm after the weakening of northern weather disturbances needs further attention [3][9]. - Land transactions have rebounded significantly, but the growth of new and second - hand housing transactions has narrowed. The land premium rate in 100 cities has reached a high level since 2021. New - home sales in first - tier cities remain relatively strong, while those in second - and third - tier cities have declined. Second - hand housing sales in 15 cities first increased and then decreased. The "small spring" of the real estate market in March 2026 and the possibility of incremental real - estate optimization policies in each city need continuous attention [3][10]. - International energy prices such as crude oil and natural gas have risen significantly. As of March 6, the IPE Brent crude oil futures settlement price increased by 27.9% from last Friday, and the UK natural gas price rose by 74.9%. Due to the attack on Iranian oil facilities and the near - blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the development of the Middle East situation and the transmission of rising oil prices to domestic PPI need to be focused on [2][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 1.1 Financial Market - Bond indices closed higher, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose significantly. Equity indices declined across the board. The gold - copper ratio increased slightly, the gold - silver ratio rebounded, the gold price fluctuated upward, and the silver price declined [12][14][16]. 1.2 Industrial Production 1.2.1 Power Generation - Coal consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces rebounded significantly, and the thermal coal price first increased and then decreased [18][19]. 1.2.2 Coking - The operating rate of coking enterprises declined marginally, while the prices of coking coal and coke futures increased [20]. 1.2.3 Steel - The output of rebar increased, and the futures prices of iron ore and rebar rose. The inventory of major steel products continued to increase, and the arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports continued to decline [23][25][28]. 1.2.4 Building Materials - The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker increased slightly, and the copper and aluminum inventories increased significantly. The national cement price index declined marginally, and the glass price first decreased and then increased [28][29][31]. 1.2.5 Chemical Industry - The methanol operating rate decreased slightly, while the prices of crude oil and natural gas increased significantly. The operating rate of soda ash fluctuated upward, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Yangtze River Delta region rebounded, and the PTA operating rate increased significantly [40][41][42]. 1.2.6 Automobile - The operating rates of automobile semi - steel tires and all - steel tires increased significantly [45][46]. 1.3 Resumption of Work and Production - The resumption progress of 10,692 construction sites across the country was the same as that of the same period last lunar year. The labor attendance rate of real - estate projects was better than that of non - real - estate projects year - on - year [47][48]. 1.4 Logistics and Transportation 1.4.1 Freight - The road logistics freight rate index increased marginally, and the railway transportation volume and postal parcel collection volume both increased [48][49][51]. 1.4.2 Passenger Transport - The subway passenger volume returned to the pre - holiday level, and the number of domestic flights decreased [52][53]. 1.5 Terminal Demand 1.5.1 Credit - The negative spread between bill rediscount and certificate of deposit first narrowed and then widened, and the rediscount rate of six - month national stock bills declined [54][55][56]. 1.5.2 Real Estate - The land premium rate of 100 - city land transactions increased significantly, and the new - home transaction area first increased and then decreased. The new - home transactions in first - tier cities remained relatively strong, while those in second - and third - tier cities declined. The second - hand housing transaction area of 15 cities first increased and then decreased [57][65][69]. 1.5.3 Building Construction - The apparent demand for rebar rebounded, and the proportion of profitable steel mills declined slightly [69][70]. 1.5.4 Consumption - The total number of movie screenings decreased seasonally, and vegetable prices declined significantly. The average wholesale price of pork continued to decline, and the average wholesale price of fruits increased marginally [70][73][75]. 1.5.5 Export - The SCFI freight rate increased, and the port cargo throughput rebounded. The SCFI index increased significantly, and the CCFI index of most routes turned from decline to increase month - on - month [83].

黑色建材日报 | 2026-03-10 地缘冲突升级，原料持续走强 钢材：市场情绪转好，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日盘面震荡上行，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3119元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3270元/吨。昨日，全国建材成交11.6 万吨。 供需与逻辑： 近期宏观预期扰动增加，通胀预期升温，能化带动商品走势。当前建材依旧维持供需两弱局面，库存季节性回升， 基本面矛盾并不突出，上下空间均较为有限。板带材产量下降，日均铁水产量下降明显。目前钢厂维持基本生产 利润，预期两会后铁水产量逐步回升，板材消费力度尚可，需求有望进一步改善，库存压制价格表现。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、产业政策、库存变化、需求复苏、成本支撑等。 铁矿：发运有所回落，矿价震荡上行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石价格震荡上行。现货方面，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随行就市；钢厂采购以刚需 为主，现货市场成交少。3月9日全国主港铁矿累计成交68.7万吨，环比上涨1.48%；本周平均每日成交68.7万吨， 环比下跌14.76% 供应方面：本期全球发运总量环比下降13.3%，澳洲，巴西发运量有所回落，其他国 ...