Group 1 - The current spot price of white sugar in Guangxi is 5764 CNY/ton, down by 13 CNY/ton, with processing sugar factory prices stable between 5950 to 6090 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market shows the main white sugar contract closing at 5474.00 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.16%, and a trading volume of 315,458 lots on September 18 [1] - The price range for industrial-grade sugar varies, with domestic prices reported as low as 1780 CNY/ton in Henan province [1] Group 2 - In August, China's sugar imports reached 830,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with total imports from January to August at 2.61 million tons, up by 5.1% [2] - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August was 3.872 million tons, an increase of 18.21% compared to the same period last year, with cane crushing volume at 50.061 million tons, up by 10.68% [2] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that Brazil's sugar production is accelerating, with expectations of high yields from Thailand and India in the upcoming season [3] - Domestic sugar inventory is currently low, but significant imports are expected before October, while new sugar supply will gradually enter the market as northern regions begin harvesting [3]

Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The raw sugar price continues to fluctuate, and the sugar price movement is mainly due to low - level technical fluctuations with the market lacking a clear direction. Attention should be paid to the upcoming production report of Brazil's central - southern region. The Zhengzhou sugar market is in an overall oscillating situation, with weak spot market, ample supply, and increasing supply pressure due to the listing of beet sugar. There are signs that industrial funds may shift from short to long [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On Monday, the New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The main October contract closed down 0.75% at 15.88 cents per pound. The main December contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed up 0.06% at $466.00 per ton. The SR601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,529 yuan per ton, down 26 yuan or 0.47%, with an increase of 2,571 positions; the SR605 contract closed at 5,510 yuan per ton, down 22 yuan or 0.40%, with an increase of 4,002 positions. The No.10 contract of US sugar closed at 15.88 cents per pound, down 0.12 cents or 0.75%, with a decrease of 18,381 positions; the No.03 contract closed at 16.55 cents per pound, down 0.18 cents or 1.08%, with an increase of 8,041 positions [7] - **Spot Market**: The spot price in domestic production areas remained unchanged. The price of sugar in Nanning was reported at 5,940 yuan per ton, and that in Kunming was 5,770 yuan per ton [8] 2. Industry News - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC), in August, the sugarcane yield in Brazil's central - southern region was 77.5 tons per hectare, slightly lower than 78.8 tons per hectare in the same period of 2024. The sugar content index (ATR) decreased by 2.9% from 148.4 kg per ton of sugarcane to 144.2 kg. From the start of the 2025/26 season until August, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region decreased by 8.2% year - on - year to 79.2 tons per hectare, compared with 86.3 tons per hectare in the previous season. The cumulative ATR was 129.7 kg per ton of sugarcane, compared with 133.2 kg in the same period last year. A survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed that the sugar production in the important central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August was expected to increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, the sugarcane crushing volume was expected to increase by 9.5% to 49.5 million tons, the sugar content per kilogram of sugarcane was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 149.48 kg per ton of sugarcane, and the ethanol production, including corn ethanol, was expected to decrease by 2.5% to 2.4 billion liters [9] - **India's Sugar Situation**: An Indian government official said that India, the world's second - largest sugar producer, will have sufficient surplus sugar stocks to allow sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting on October 1. India's exports may suppress global sugar prices but support local sugar prices. The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reaffirmed its earlier forecast of 34.9 million tons of total sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [12][14][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the sugar prices in New York are declining due to an expected significant increase in supply from Brazil, the largest sugar producer, alongside concerns about demand from markets like China and Indonesia [1] - Covrig Analytics analyst Claudiu Covrig forecasts that Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August could reach 3.95 million tons, exceeding the previous estimates by the industry association Unica [1] - The New York raw sugar futures price fell by approximately 1% on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day of decline [1][2] Group 2 - Covrig predicts that Brazil's sugar inventory may rise from 9.4 million tons at the end of August to 11.6 million tons by September 30, which will continue to exert pressure on the market [1] - Due to previously high imports and sufficient inventory, China's demand for sugar has significantly decreased [1] - India and Thailand have temporarily halted raw sugar imports to support local farmers, while both countries are expected to have a good harvest [1] - However, there are early signs of demand recovery in the Middle East and Africa, as sugar mills in these regions continue to procure raw materials from Brazil [1]

印度政府高级官员近日在一次国际糖业会议上正式确认，印度计划从2025年10月开始的新榨季恢复食糖 出口。 （文章来源：新华财经） 恢复出口不仅有助于平衡印度国内市场，确保蔗农获得最低保障价格，同时也预计将增加全球食糖市场 供应量，可能对当前国际糖价形成下行压力。 全球市场参与者正密切关注印度政府后续将公布的具体出口配额数量。 业内人士分析认为，印度重返国际糖业贸易市场将对全球糖价形成下行压力，同时有助于保障该国蔗农 收益。值得注意的是，尽管当前年度印度仅批准100万吨出口配额，但新榨季预期的800万吨结转库存为 其提供了出口决策的坚实基础。 此外，印度甘蔗转化乙醇产能预计突破48亿升历史新高，展示了印度在粮食安全与能源领域的战略布 局。 作为全球第二大产糖国，印度重返国际食糖贸易舞台，预计将对国际糖市产生影响。 印度食品与公共部联合秘书Ashwini Srivastava明确指出，基于对新榨季产量的乐观预测，在满足国内约 2900万吨的消费需求以及创纪录的乙醇生产需求后，印度将拥有充足的食糖配额用于出口。 行业数据显示，2025/26年度印度食糖产量预计达3490万吨，远超国内2850万至2900万吨的消费需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest data on the sugar market, including prices, spreads, and supply - demand situations both domestically and internationally, along with macro and industry news [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.55 cents per pound, down 0.12; the mainstream spot price is 5940 yuan per ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5547 yuan per ton, down 2 [1] - **Spread Data**: The 15 - spread is 23 yuan per ton, unchanged; the 59 - spread is - 6 yuan per ton, up 1; the mainstream spot basis is 393 yuan per ton, up 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - India's monsoon precipitation has strengthened again. Brazil's exports have declined, with 374 tons exported in August (down 5% year - on - year) and 359 tons in July (down 5% year - on - year). Conab has lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 4450 tons from 4590 tons. China imported 74 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that China's sugar production will be 1116 tons in the 24/25 season and 1120 tons in the 25/26 season, with consumption of 1580 tons and 1590 tons respectively, and imports of 500 tons in both seasons. As of May 31, 24/25 season production was 1116 tons (up 120 tons), sales were 811 tons (up 152 tons), and the sales rate was 72.7%. As of July 31, 24/25 season cumulative imports were 324 tons (down 34 tons). In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season and 488 tons in the 24/25 season. As of August 16, 25/26 season, Brazil's central - southern region had a 6.6 - percentage - point decline in cumulative sugarcane crushing, with 2289 tons of sugar produced (down 112 tons), and the MIX was 52.51% (up 3.37 percentage points). ISMA/NFCSF predicts India's 25/26 season sugar production to be 3490 tons (up 540 tons from 24/25). Thailand's 24/25 season production was 1008 tons (up 127 tons) [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugarcane production recovery exceeds expectations, putting pressure on the global sugar market. In China, new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and imports are high, but the spot price is stable due to thin inventory. Zhengzhou sugar futures are hovering at a low level [4]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand for pulp replenishment may increase, but the magnitude is uncertain. The pulp market is stabilizing, and the recent listing of offset paper may support pulp futures. However, the upward drive for pulp prices is insufficient, and it is likely to trade in a low - level range [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. But the fundamental situation is still weak, and the upward price movement may be limited [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA September report has a slightly positive impact on the global cotton market, but the market is still under pressure. In China, there is a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and cotton futures are likely to fluctuate within a range [9]. - **Apples**: The impact of the old - season apples on the market is coming to an end. The market is focused on the new - season production and quality. Apple futures are expected to trade within a range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price fell sharply. The inventory is being depleted, and the market is in a state of seeking a direction. Aggressive investors can short the 2601 contract, while cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, consider shorting at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, stay on the sidelines. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds. For Cotton 2601, use a range - trading strategy [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of September, the cold - storage inventory decreased. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the market in the sales area is also stable [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. The market in the sales area is light, and the mentality of holders is divided [23]. - **Sugar Market**: The USDA's September report shows the sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio in the US. The ICE 11 - sugar non - commercial net short position increased. The domestic sugar spot price is stable [24][26]. - **Pulp Market**: The decline in domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has suppressed import volume. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The market is basically stable. The trading atmosphere is weak, and prices in different regions are stable [30][31]. - **Cotton Market**: India's cotton production and import expectations have increased, and its ending inventory has risen. In the US, the sales and inventory data of clothing and fabric in July show certain trends [32][33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided [34]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented [39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [51]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range - bound trading, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [68]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [89]. - **Sugar Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [96]. - **Cotton Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [101].

资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 16 日 白糖：关注宏观政策 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.67 | 0.14 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 0 | 26 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5940 | 0 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 23 | 0 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5549 | 9 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 391 | -9 | 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：印度季风降水量再度增强。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 8 月出口 374 万 吨，同比减少 5%；巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨，同比减少 5%。Conab 下调 25/26 榨季巴西产量至 4450 万吨，前 值 4590 万吨。中国 7 月进口食糖 74 万吨（+32 万吨）。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/2 ...

率89.59%，同比加快0.65个百分点。工业库存116.23万吨，同比增加6.01万吨。不过下游处于双节备货阶 数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 段，预计刚需对价格有所支撑。短期糖价下跌或受限。操作上，建议观望为主。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 白糖产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5549 | 9 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 381607 | -2891 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 11325 | -274 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -55352 | -3373 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 6 | 0 20 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The latest news on raw sugar is bearish. Brazil has increased its estimates of sugarcane planting area and production, and the harvest is expected to exceed market expectations. Domestic sugar prices have stopped falling, with low inventory and high import processing costs providing some support. The future trend depends on the performance of raw sugar in the international market [4]. - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly. The market is weak, and the supply and demand situation remains to be observed. Although the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated the supply pressure, it is necessary to pay attention to when producers will reduce shipments to the Chinese market. The price is expected to be range - bound at a low level [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable, and the market expects an improvement in demand during the peak season. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the profit and price increase may be limited [8][9]. - **Cotton**: The external market is under pressure, but there are also some supporting factors. The domestic market is in a game between tight old - season supply and loose new - season expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuates. The market is mainly concerned about the difference between the expected and actual situation of the new season's production and quality. The price is expected to move within a range [12]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows a weak and volatile trend. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the price has rebounded seasonally. The new - season production and quality will be determined in September [13]. Trading Strategies - **Sugar**: Due to the bearish news on raw sugar, it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main contract is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure level is 5580 - 5600 [5]. - **Paper Pulp**: Although the price may be supported in the short term, the upward driving force is not clear. It is recommended to be bearish after a rebound. The 2511 contract has a support level of 4900 - 4950 yuan and a pressure level of 5100 - 5200 yuan [7]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4400 - 4500 yuan. Consider reverse calendar spreads and long - pulp short - paper spreads, and try short positions near the pressure level [10]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea. The support range of the 01 contract is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400. For options, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: It is recommended to wait and see. The support range of the 2601 contract is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500. For options, it is recommended to sell a straddle combination strategy [12]. - **Jujube**: Aggressive investors can hold a reverse calendar spread (short 2601, long 2605) or hold a long position in the 2605 contract and buy a protective put option. It is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread option strategy. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 10500 - 10800 points, and the high - level reference range is 11200 - 11500 points [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500 [21]. - **Jujube 2601**: Take profit on long positions at high prices. The support range is 11000 - 11500, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [21]. - **Sugar 2601**: Wait and see. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600 [21]. - **Paper Pulp 2511**: Short within the range. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200 [21]. - **Double - Offset Paper 2601**: Short on rebounds. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4350 - 4400 [21]. - **Cotton 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [21]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8329, up 33 (0.40%) for the week [22]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11155, up 155 (1.41%) for the week [22]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5540, up 17 (0.31%) for the week [22]. - Paper Pulp 2511 closed at 4990, down 72 (-1.42%) for the week [22]. - Double - Offset Paper 2601 closed at 4224, with no change data provided [22]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13860, down 140 (-1.00%) for the week [22]. b. Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 0.20 yuan/jin [27]. - The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous period and 5.30 yuan/kg year - on - year [27]. - The spot price of sugar is 5890 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of paper pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 400 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of cotton is 15248 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and up 487 yuan/ton year - on - year [27]. Third Part: Sector Basis Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the basis of apple, jujube, sugar, paper pulp, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [37][40][42][44][53]. Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [47][48][55] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and the same as the previous year [56]. - Jujube has 9188 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous period and an increase of 2906 compared to the previous year [56]. - Sugar has 11599 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 140 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1927 compared to the previous year [56]. - Paper pulp has 245040 warehouse receipts, an increase of 212 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 233942 compared to the previous year [56]. - Cotton has 5017 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 142 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 2568 compared to the previous year [56]. Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Apple Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for apple option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios, but no specific analysis content is given [58] b. Sugar Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [59][60][63] c. Cotton Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [67] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apple - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: Relevant figures are provided for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [69] - **Export Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for apple export volume, but no specific analysis content is given [71] - **Inventory Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for China's weekly apple storage inventory and that in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [73] b. Jujube - Relevant figures are provided for the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis content is given [75] c. Sugar - Relevant figures are provided for national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import volume, and the spot - futures price difference, but no specific analysis content is given [77][79][82] d. Paper Pulp - Relevant figures are provided for domestic 4 - port paper pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis content is given [88][89] e. Double - Offset Paper - Relevant figures are provided for double - offset paper's capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific analysis content is given [91] f. Cotton - Relevant figures are provided for retail sales, inventory, and other data in the clothing industry in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific analysis content is given [93][94][100]

GUOLIAN F U T U R E S 综 合 衍 生 品 服 务 平 台 徐亚光 从业资格证号：F03093235 投资咨询证号：Z0017169 白糖周报 反弹空间有限 维持空头趋势 目录 CONTENTS | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周度核心要点及策略 | 03 | 糖市周内要闻 | 05 | | 03 | | | | | 糖市相关数据 | 08 | | | 2 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度核心要点及策略 3 白糖核心要点及策略 | 因素 | 价格 | 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年7月份我国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加31.82万吨。2025年1-7月份我国进口食糖177.78万吨，同比增 加5.39万吨，增幅3.12%。不过加工糖和国产糖错峰供应，一定程度上缓解了集中上市带来的冲击，使得市场供需节奏更加平稳，持续关 | | 供应 | 向下 | 注进口糖到港情况。2025年7月我国进口糖浆和白砂糖预混粉(含税则号1702.90、2106.906)合计15.97万吨 ...