Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the Zhengzhou sugar price rose, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The previously opened window for out - of - quota import profit is expected to increase imports, suppressing the rebound of the 09 contract. The main funds flowed into the 01 contract, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to shrink due to the domestic production cut expectation. In the overseas market, due to the ongoing production cut in Brazil, the global supply is tight in the short term, providing strong support for the external market price, but the expected increase in production in India and Thailand prevents the raw sugar price from rising unilaterally. In the short term, the SR2509 contract is weak, the SR2601 contract is strong, and there is a possibility that the 9 - 1 spread will continue to narrow [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6010 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it was 5780 - 5940 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase [3]. - **International Market**: In the first week of August, Brazil exported 1.094 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 182,300 tons, a 2% increase compared to August of the previous year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data showed that in late July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease, and produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease, with a sugar - making ratio of 54.1% (50.32% in the same period last year). As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area reached 5.731 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.568 million hectares in the same period last year [4][9]. Sugar Futures and Spot Price and Spread - **Futures Price and Spread**: On August 18, 2025, the closing prices of SR01, SR03, SR05, SR07, SR09, and SR11 were 5664, 5640, 5622, 5616, 5740, and 5667 respectively, all with a 0% change. The spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc. are also provided [6]. - **Spot Price and Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, etc. and their price differences are presented. For example, the price in Nanning was 5960 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase [6]. Sugar Weekly Basis and Import Price Change - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning, Kunming and different SR contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and their changes are given. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 316, a 61 - yuan decrease [7][10]. - **Import Price Change**: The quota - within and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their weekly changes are shown. For example, the quota - within import price of Brazilian sugar was 4561 yuan/ton, a 195 - yuan increase [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the short term due to good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries and concerns about the sugar content of sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, with signs of improved demand. In the domestic market, the profit from out - of - quota imports remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start crushing in September, increasing supply. Demand is expected to rise due to the hot summer and upcoming double - festival stocking. The inventory reduction process has slowed down, and the new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic market will fluctuate in the short term, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,672 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the main contract position was 322,832 lots, up 7,392 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 16,931, down 173; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 26,523 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,561 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,579 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,796 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,819 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning it was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou it was 6,040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, up 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 3.5937 million tons, up 0.2347 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,322 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,304 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 87 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 64 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.4%, down 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.37%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.96%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.31%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, China's sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.66% last Friday, and the domestic sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.42% on Monday. The sugar production in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil in the second half of July decreased by 0.8% year - on - year to 3.614 million tons [2].

Group 1 - The stock of COFCO Sugar has hit the daily limit up for three consecutive trading days, with a reported price of 15.27 yuan and a trading volume of 46.32 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 6.91 billion yuan as of 9:35 AM [2] - During the consecutive limit-up period, the stock has increased by 33.13%, with a cumulative turnover rate of 15.41% [2] - The latest total market capitalization of the stock in the A-share market is 32.66 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - As of August 15, the margin trading balance for COFCO Sugar is 1.599 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.590 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 186 million yuan or 13.23% from the previous trading day [2] - Over the past three days, the margin trading balance has increased by 183 million yuan, representing a growth of 13.01% [2] - The stock has appeared on the Dragon and Tiger list due to a cumulative deviation of 20% in its price over three trading days, with a net purchase of 24.42 million yuan from the Shanghai Stock Connect [2] Group 3 - The company's Q1 report indicates a total revenue of 5.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.52%, and a net profit of 177 million yuan, down 59.81% year-on-year [2] - The stock's daily performance shows significant fluctuations, with a daily increase of 9.98% on August 15 and a net inflow of 155.97 million yuan in main capital [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low due to the obvious increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil after July and the expected increase in production in major northern hemisphere producers like India in the new season [8]. - The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline as the domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, the out - of - quota spot import profit has remained at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures price valuation is still high [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The international raw sugar price rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was 16.47 cents per pound, up 0.2 cents per pound from the previous week, a 1.23% increase. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,664 yuan per ton, up 91 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.63% increase. Various spreads also showed different trends [9]. - **Industry News**: In the second half of July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 76 from 80 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased by 259,800 tons, a 7.26% decline [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to short at high levels with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 within three months [8][9]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, London white sugar monthly spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - The report shows charts of national sugar production, import volume, sales volume, and industrial inventory, covering monthly and cumulative data for multiple seasons, to reflect the supply and demand situation in the domestic sugar market [41][44][49][52]. 3.4. International Market Situation - The report provides charts of CFTC positions, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil, India, and Thailand, and Brazilian sugar shipment volume, to show the international sugar market situation [57][60][65][68][71].

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently involved in a lawsuit initiated by Nanning Mingguan Agricultural Machinery Cooperative, claiming economic losses totaling 14,657,186.31 yuan due to a breach of contract by the company and its subsidiaries [2][3][4]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit is at the first-instance stage and has been accepted by the Nanning Wuming District People's Court [2]. - The total amount in dispute is 14,657,186.31 yuan, which includes various claims such as construction losses, equipment sale losses, and expected profit losses [2][7]. - The plaintiff alleges that the company failed to provide the agreed-upon land for agricultural operations, resulting in significant economic losses [7]. Group 2: Company Position and Responsibilities - The company, along with its subsidiaries, is named as a defendant in the lawsuit, with claims for joint liability for the debts incurred by the sugar factory [3][4]. - The plaintiff argues that the sugar factory does not have independent legal status and that its liabilities should be borne by the parent company [7]. - The company is actively gathering evidence and preparing for the court hearing scheduled for September 11, 2025 [8]. Group 3: Financial Impact and Disclosure - The company has indicated that the outcome of the lawsuit is uncertain, and it is currently unable to assess the potential impact on its profits for the current or future periods [2][8]. - The company commits to timely information disclosure regarding the progress of the lawsuit to keep investors informed [2][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's sugar industry, with a significant increase in production and market dynamics projected for the coming years [1][3]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's finished sugar production reached 337,000 tons in June 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.6% [1]. - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative production of finished sugar in China was 9.404 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 5.7% [1]. Group 2 - The article mentions several listed companies in the sugar industry, including Huazi Industrial (600191), Yuegui Co., Ltd. (000833), Guannong Co., Ltd. (600251), COFCO Sugar Industry (600737), Jinhui Industrial (002597), Guangnong Sugar Industry (000911), and Hainan Yedao (600238) [1]. - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides an analysis of the competitive landscape and development trends in the Chinese sugar industry from 2025 to 2031 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COFCO Sugar Holdings Co., Ltd. has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading activity [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Trading Activity - The company's stock price increased significantly on August 12, 13, and 14, 2025, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20%, which is classified as abnormal trading activity according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange rules [2][3]. - On August 15, 2025, the company's stock hit the daily limit again, reflecting a substantial short-term price increase [2][3]. Group 2: Business Operations - The company's production and operational activities are currently normal, with no significant changes in its main business [4]. - The company disclosed a half-year performance forecast on July 15, 2025, estimating a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 423.84 million and 490.76 million yuan, representing a decrease of 371.74 million to 438.66 million yuan compared to the same period last year, which translates to a year-on-year decline of 43.10% to 50.86% [4]. Group 3: Risk Awareness - The company emphasizes the importance of investor awareness regarding market risks and encourages rational decision-making and cautious investment practices [3][5]. - The company confirms that there are no undisclosed significant matters affecting stock price fluctuations, and all previously disclosed information remains accurate [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COFCO Sugar Holdings Co., Ltd. experienced significant price fluctuations, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days from August 12 to August 14, 2025, indicating abnormal trading conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Trading Risk - The company's stock price increased significantly, with a closing price increase of over 20% from August 12 to August 14, 2025, and reached a daily limit on August 15, 2025, prompting a warning to investors about market risks [1][2][3]. - The company emphasizes the importance of rational decision-making and caution in investment due to the recent volatility in stock prices [2][3]. Group 2: Operational Status - The company's production and operational activities are currently normal, with no significant changes in its main business operations [1][2]. - The company disclosed a half-year performance forecast on July 15, 2025, estimating a net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 423.84 million to 490.76 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 371.74 million to 438.66 million yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 43.10% to 50.86% [2][3]. Group 3: Other Risk Reminders - The company reminds investors to refer to designated media for official information disclosures, including China Securities Journal and Securities Daily, as well as the Shanghai Stock Exchange website [3]. - The board of directors confirms that there are no undisclosed matters that could significantly impact the company's stock price, and previous disclosures do not require correction or supplementation [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar season, which suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's overall production progress is lower than the historical average, causing concerns about potential production cuts and leading to fluctuations in raw sugar prices. However, data from early July shows an acceleration in production progress and a significant increase in the sugar - to - ethanol ratio. In China, the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports has strengthened import expectations, causing futures prices to quickly decline to close the profit window [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 2.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850. Also, selling call options (SR511C5800) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 can reduce costs and lock in the selling price of spot sugar [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5650 - 5700. Selling put options (SR511P5500) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 can reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price of spot sugar [3]. Core Contradictions - Market expectations of increased production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar season suppress sugar prices. Brazil's slower - than - usual production progress and subsequent acceleration, along with changes in the sugar - to - ethanol ratio, affect raw sugar prices. The opening of the out - of - quota import profit window in China leads to a decline in futures prices [4]. Bullish Factors - As of the end of July, cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 85.01%, a 2.51 - percentage - point increase. Industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons. In Yunnan, cumulative sugar sales reached 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 80.68%, a 0.7% increase [5]. - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 sugar season to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar season to the first half of July, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 256.14 billion tons, a 9.61% year - on - year decrease. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio was 51.58%, a 2.69 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6]. - In June, the import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [6]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6]. - Trump stated that Coca - Cola has agreed to use sugar as a beverage additive in the US again, and PepsiCo is also willing to launch sugar - containing cola if there is consumer demand [7]. Bearish Factors - During the 2024/25 sugar season in Guangxi, the cumulative cane crushing volume was 485.954 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 billion tons, while the mixed - sugar production was 646.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons, with a sugar production rate of 13.30%, a 1.22 - percentage - point increase [8]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production to 46 million tons during the 25/26 sugar season [8]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [8]. - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season, with an estimated output of about 35 million tons [8]. - In June, China's sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window has opened [9]. - In the first half of July, the cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 49.823 billion tons, a 14.77% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a 15.07% year - on - year increase [9]. - In July, Guangxi's single - month sugar sales were 355,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons, and Yunnan's industrial inventory was 467,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,600 tons [9]. Price and Spread Information - **Base - difference Changes**: On August 14, 2025, the base - difference between Nanning and SR01 was 321, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 64. The base - difference between Kunming and SR01 was 201, with a daily increase of 3 and a weekly decrease of 44 [10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5664, with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly increase of 1.63%. The spread between SR01 and SR05 was 40, with a daily decrease of 11 and a weekly decrease of 2 [10]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5980, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30. The price difference between Nanning and Liuzhou was - 20, with no daily or weekly change [11]. - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On August 15, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4561, with a daily increase of 9 and a weekly increase of 195. The out - of - quota import price was 5796, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 253 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced a significant stock price increase, with a cumulative deviation of over 20% in closing prices over three consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading fluctuations [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company's production and operations are normal, and there have been no significant changes in its main business activities [1] Group 2: Stock Price Movement - The stock price has seen a substantial short-term increase, which raises concerns about potential trading risks [1]