Report Overview - Date: July 4, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Research Institution: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The inventory accumulation pattern continues, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and the volatility of the futures market is amplifying [2][14] - Polysilicon: Market news is fermenting, and the volatility of the futures market is intensifying [2][15] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790 yuan, up 570 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710 yuan, up 40 yuan from T - 1 [4] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 78,989 lots, up 9,783 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 85,411 lots, down 21,358 lots from T - 1 [4] - **Spot Prices**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,850 yuan, up 650 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 909 yuan, down 2 yuan from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue to shut down for maintenance from June to July, affecting 11 - 13 tons of 300 - series production [7] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause [7] - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [8] Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [9] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 64,300 yuan, up 320 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,080 yuan, up 120 yuan from T - 1 [11] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the 2507 contract was 764 lots, up 599 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the 2509 contract was 420,967 lots, down 119,468 lots from T - 1 [11] - **Spot Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,100 yuan, up 450 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan, up 450 yuan from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,638 yuan/ton, up 306 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12] - This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,123 tons, a decrease of 644 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 138,347 tons, an increase of 1,510 tons from last week [12] - A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan for two months, while a plant in Sichuan is operating normally [13] Trend Intensity - Lithium Carbonate: - 1 [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,010 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 35,050 yuan/ton, up 3,335 yuan from T - 1 [15] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Si2509 contract was 1,196,542 lots, down 447,106 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the PS2508 contract was 482,063 lots, up 70,477 lots from T - 1 [15] - **Spot Prices**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 8,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from T - 1; the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feeding material was 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary, Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., completed a 4.916 - billion - yuan strategic capital increase and introduced 11 strategic investors [15][17] Trend Intensity - Industrial Silicon: 0; Polysilicon: 0 [17]

Report Overview - Date: July 2, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Inventory is marginally decreasing slightly, and steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Spot trading is light, and it is operating weakly in a volatile manner [2][8] - Industrial Silicon: Upstream supply disturbances are increasing, and market sentiment should be monitored [2][11] - Polysilicon: Market news continues to cause disturbances, and the upside space should be monitored [2][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data** - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,720 yuan, down 110 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 69,295 lots, a decrease of 16,863 lots [4] - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,560 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 113,478 lots, a decrease of 32,573 lots [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4] - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production after a previous shutdown due to an accident [6] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue shutdown and maintenance from June to July, potentially affecting 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [7] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban from the mining fiscal system bill [7] - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - **Trend Intensity** - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data** - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 62,980 yuan, up 560 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 955 lots, a decrease of 17,144 lots [8] - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 62,780 yuan, up 520 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 398,387 lots, an increase of 8,660 lots [8] - **Macro and Industry News** - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 61 yuan/ton [8] - Hainan Mining signed a lithium - spodumene off - take agreement [10] - **Trend Intensity** - - 1 [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data** - Industrial Silicon: The Si2509 closing price was 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,230,307 lots, a decrease of 147,023 lots [11] - Polysilicon: The PS2508 closing price was 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 261,490 lots, a decrease of 159,686 lots [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - Ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers decided to cut production by 30% to break the "involution - style" competition [11][13] - **Trend Intensity** - Industrial Silicon: 1; Polysilicon: 1 [13]

2025年06月30日 | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾，高波动或延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 观点与策略 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,480 | -350 | 2,200 | 560 | 530 | -9,550 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,620 | -15 | 115 | 70 | - ...

fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 现货价格：工业硅现货价格受到大厂减产消息提振有所上报。内蒙 553 价格 8350 元/吨，上调 50 元/吨，四川 553 价 ...

有色金属专场 - 年度中期策略会 20260626 摘要 铜价 2024 年上半年受中国需求、美国物流套利及市场博弈驱动上涨， 伦铜需突破 9,580 美元或触及 10,000 美元面临技术阻力，下半年关注 美国 232 关税政策、国内消费淡季及矿产供应变化等不确定性因素。 铜市场长线投资逻辑在于电力电网升级和新增消费领域带来的需求增长， 但矿产供应增速可能难以跟上，2024 年矿产供应增量超预期，2025 年 可能下降，2026 年可能较高，2027 年可能出现供应问题。 锡市场价格波动受矿损事件和供应预期影响，加工费极低。光伏产业对 锡需求至关重要，但美国对东盟光伏电池征税带来不确定性。半导体销 售周期预计下半年达峰值，AI 基础设施投资影响传统 3C 品类出口。 铝市场需求韧性较强，全年过剩压力较低。铜铝价格走势与去年相关， 近期铝偏强。铝产业链利润重新分配，电解铝利润较好，上游矿端利润 压缩，氧化铝困难，下游加工端利润下降。 几内亚铝土矿发运量维持高位，预计 2025 年增量可观。中国铝土矿进 口量增长，但存在过剩。几内亚事件后铝土矿价格下跌后企稳，预计难 以回到 70 美元以下。 Q&A 2025 ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Core View - The report provides a weekly analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand situations, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment strategies and outlooks [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in Shanghai copper spot price was - 40, and the change in LME inventory was - 200. Other data such as premium and import profit also showed certain changes [1] Core View - Overseas, LME copper warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained at a high level. Domestic smelting enterprises' export volume was slightly higher than expected. Global visible copper inventory was in a de - stocking channel, and domestic inventory was difficult to accumulate quickly. Copper fundamentals and inventory support remained, and attention should be paid to whether orders showed signs of weakness in the off - season next week [1] Group 3: Aluminum Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and LME inventory decreased by 2100. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [1] Core View - Supply increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were large from January to April. June demand was expected to weaken seasonally, with a supply - demand gap. 6 - 7 months' inventory decline was gentle. Short - term fundamentals were okay, and attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread could be held if the absolute price fell [1] Group 4: Zinc Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and LME inventory decreased by 625. Other data such as premium and import profit also had changes [1][2][3] Core View - This week, zinc prices fluctuated and declined. Supply side: domestic TC was unchanged, and import TC rebounded slightly. Demand side: domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. Domestic social inventory fluctuated, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation was expected to appear in mid - June. The strategy was to maintain a short - allocation idea, hold the long - short spread between domestic and overseas, and pay attention to the reverse spread between months [4] Group 5: Nickel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 200, and LME inventory decreased by 816. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [7] Core View - Supply side: pure nickel production remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand side: overall demand was weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Inventory side: overseas nickel plate inventory remained stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously concerned [7] Group 6: Stainless Steel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50, and 430 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [10] Core View - Supply side: production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively since late May. Demand side: mainly rigid demand. Cost: nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices remained stable. Inventory: inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts decreased. The overall fundamentals were weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10][11] Group 7: Lead Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot premium was 20, and LME inventory increased by 2025. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [12] Core View - This week, lead prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and some recycling enterprises increased prices to sell goods. Demand side: battery inventory was high, and Tianneng's production increased, driving spot trading. It was expected that lead prices would fluctuate between 16700 - 17100 next week, and supply was expected to be flat while demand was weak in June [12] Group 8: Tin Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot import profit was - 498.60, and LME inventory increased by 20. Other data such as premium and export profit also changed [14] Core View - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply side: short - term复产 in Myanmar's Wa State needed negotiation, and domestic smelting enterprises in some areas cut production. Demand side: solder demand was limited, and terminal demand growth was expected to decline. Short - term, it was expected to maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, and June was a key stage to verify whether the shortage of ore would lead to a shortage of ingots. In the short - term, long - allocation could be held cautiously, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period [14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 448 [17] Core View - This week, the start - up rate in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang increased slightly. The short - term supply - demand reduction pattern was obvious, and the overall supply and demand of industrial silicon reached a tight balance. In the future, supply had great potential pressure. In the long - term, industrial silicon prices were expected to operate at the bottom of the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and the focus was on the cost reduction caused by green - electricity subsidies and the decline of thermal - power prices [17] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1746 [19] Core View - This week, lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: some production lines resumed production, and overall inventory increased this week. Demand side: downstream demand was weak, and only maintained a safety inventory. In the medium - long term, if the start - up rate of leading ore - smelting integrated enterprises did not decline significantly, lithium carbonate prices would still fluctuate weakly. It was expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, putting upward pressure on prices [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

2025年06月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：仓单持续减少 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单持续性去化，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单未增，关注市场情绪 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 18 日 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 118,570 | -1,120 | -2,820 | -2,680 | - ...

Report Information - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [1][4][28][59][91][95] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: When the mine - end logic is marginally dull, the supply elasticity of the smelting end may limit the upside space, and the nickel price may still face the pressure of "de - valuation - de - production" [4] - Stainless Steel: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and the pressure on profits from the far - end surplus may ease slightly if production cuts occur as scheduled from June to July [5] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The industry remains in an oversupply pattern, and the disk still has downward drivers. It is recommended to short on rallies [33] - Polysilicon: It is also advisable to short on rallies. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation persists, and the spot price still has further downward drivers [34] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate Lithium: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to use the reverse spread strategy [59][61] National Carbon Market - National Carbon Market: The trading volume is expected to climb in mid - to late June. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [92][93] Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The short - term support logic at the mine end remains, but the market's concern about the mine end has decreased. The supply elasticity at the smelting end is abundant, and the nickel price may face pressure [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Global visible inventory accumulation is lower than expected, but the overall inventory is high, and there are still many potential supply release expectations in the medium term [4] - **Market News**: Multiple events such as potential changes in Philippine mining policies and the resumption of production in some Indonesian factories have affected the market [9] Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the steel price is restricted by short - term off - season demand and overseas tariffs [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Stainless steel social inventory has increased week - on - week [7] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Trends**: The disk rebounded slightly, and the spot price remained stable [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The industry inventory decreased slightly. Factories in Yunnan, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia continued to resume production, while downstream demand remained on - demand procurement [30][31] Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: The disk fluctuated downward, and the upstream quotation decreased [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream inventory continued to accumulate. The production of silicon materials in June and July may continue to increase, but the overall procurement of industrial silicon did not increase significantly [30][31] Carbonate Lithium - **Price Trends**: The main contract first rose and then fell. The 2507 contract closed at 59940 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2509 contract closed at 59800 yuan/ton, down 1120 yuan/ton week - on - week [59] - **Supply and Demand**: The ore price stabilized, and production increased. The terminal market of new energy vehicles and energy storage performed well, but downstream procurement was still cautious [60] - **Inventory**: The total inventory increased, and the inventory of traders increased rapidly. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [60] National Carbon Market - **Price Trends**: The comprehensive price of the national carbon market rebounded significantly, and the trading activity of CCER increased [91] - **Trading Volume**: The weekly total trading volume of the national carbon market increased by 42% week - on - week, and the weekly total trading volume of the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market increased by more than 15 times week - on - week [91] - **Core Views**: The trading volume is expected to climb in mid - to late June, and it is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [92][93]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views - Report industry investment ratings are not provided in the content [1][2][4] - Core views: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate due to the game between real - time support and weak expectations; stainless steel prices will range - fluctuate as negative feedback leads to increased production cuts; lithium carbonate prices will run weakly as high production drives continuous inventory accumulation; industrial silicon should be considered from a short - allocation perspective; polysilicon spot is weak with downward drive in the market [2][4][9] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 120,000 yuan, down 1,790 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 109,748 lots, up 19,784 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract is 12,585 yuan, down 15 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 132,634 lots, down 69,306 lots compared to T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US; on April 27, China ENFI's EPC - contracted Indonesia CNI ferronickel RKEF Phase I project successfully produced ferronickel; an overseas nickel smelter has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80%; the Philippines is discussing a nickel ore export ban bill; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July, affecting 11 - 13 tons of 300 - series production; the Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract is 60,440 yuan, down 1,240 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 169,708 lots, down 66,489 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract is 60,480 yuan, down 1,260 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 154,540 lots, down 14,192 lots compared to T - 1 [9] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 60,801 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 59,050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. This week, the lithium carbonate industry inventory is 133,549 tons, up 1,117 tons from last week. In May, China's power battery loading volume was 57.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1% [10][11] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [11] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract is 7,455 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 309,628 lots, down 190,329 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the PS2507 contract is 33,585 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 65,591 lots, down 14,270 lots compared to T - 1 [12] Macro and Industry News - Iraq is negotiating with Saudi ACWA Power and UAE Masdar to build solar power plants with a total capacity of 2GW, which will help Iraq achieve its renewable energy goals and reduce fossil fuel imports [12][14] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [14]