苹果产业日报 2025-09-29 般，关注晚富士摘袋进度。操作上，建议短期维持多单。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 85 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 8486 | | 107796 | -5021 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) -1576 | 4442 | | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | ...

金秋九月，秋高气爽，在位于川滇交界、金沙江畔的凉山州会东县，迎来了软籽石榴丰收上市的旺季。以往藏于深山的"甜蜜果实"，如今正借助电商网络， 源源不断地运往全国，完成从枝头到餐桌的"甜蜜跨越"。 果农丰收（会东融媒供图） 走进会东县山源商贸有限责任公司的石榴分拣打包仓库，机器运转声与工人的忙碌身影交织成丰收的乐章。工人们手眼并用地挑选果实、套袋装箱、粘贴快 递单，每个环节都有条不紊。据了解，该仓库每天需 50名左右工人协作，每人日均收入可达300至400元，让村民在家门口实现了增收。数据显示，当前该 仓库每日可发出石榴约6000多件，重量约5至6万斤，按照这一节奏，今年该公司软籽石榴通过电商渠道的总发货量预计将突破200万斤。 "我们前后考察了两三年，最终选定会东石榴，就是看中了它的独特优势。"四川天府菜篮子供应链管理有限公司产品总监李翊华表示，会东石榴的核心竞争 力在于"自然成熟"，这里的石榴采摘期更靠后，果子能在枝头充分积累糖分，口感更清甜；加上当地交通便利，合作农户热情配合，为规模化销售打下了基 础。 此次合作中，四川天府菜篮子供应链管理有限公司联合凉山州农投公司，采用"天府菜篮子 + 凉芯农品"双品牌模 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful integration of e-commerce in the sales of honey pomelo in Nansheng Town, leading to increased sales and market expansion [2] - The use of automated sorting lines and the involvement of e-commerce influencers have significantly boosted the sales of honey pomelo [2] E-commerce Development - Nansheng Town has leveraged e-commerce to connect honey pomelo producers directly with consumers, breaking traditional geographical sales limitations [2] - The town has focused on training e-commerce talents, conducting specialized training in e-commerce operations and live streaming skills to support industry growth [2] Sales Performance - The sales of honey pomelo have reached a total of 220 million yuan this year, with a continuous growth trend [2] - The company primarily sells honey pomelo in portable packages weighing between 2.54 kg to 4 kg, complementing larger fruit sales in supermarkets [2]

图为海关关员对出口鲜李子进行现场查验。 徐一丹 摄 大连作为我国水果主产区之一，凭借其独特的地理区位与气候条件，孕育出品类繁多、品质卓越的水 果。"安哥诺"李子作为其中的佼佼者，其果实硕大饱满，口感酸甜交织、清爽适口，耐储性强，深受海 外客户及消费者的喜爱。近年来，随着当地农业技术转型升级，李子产季从每年2月初延长至10月底， 产量也在逐步提升，已成为当地助农增收的优势产品。 "在以往，我们公司的鲜李子主要供应国内市场，对外仅出口至东南亚国家。近年来，随着共建'一带一 路'倡议的深入推进，我们紧抓时代机遇积极拓展海外市场，今年已先后打开了沙特阿拉伯、马尔代夫 等国际新市场，科特迪瓦是我们在非洲地区的第一个客户。"瓦房店涌泉果品有限公司总经理牟孝全 说。 为助力大连地区特色水果扩大出口，大连海关实地了解企业发展需求，主动向企业推送出口目的国家最 新准入政策，积极开展特色水果企业对外推荐注册工作；组织专家深入田间地头、果园基地、包装厂， 指导果农规范农业投入品使用、开展病虫害绿色防控，从源头确保出口农产品品质；在通关环节，开 辟"鲜活易腐农食产品绿色通道"，最大程度确保出口水果的新鲜度。 大连鲜李子首登非洲市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Early - maturing apples have a poor high - quality fruit rate, and it is speculated that Fuji apples may also have a poor high - quality fruit rate. Continuous rainfall in the western production areas is expected to affect the quality. However, considering the current high prices, the apple market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the supply of mid - maturing apples is increasing. The overall quality of Hongqian Fuji in the west is okay, but some have average chroma and redness due to long rainfall and short sunshine. The price of high - quality goods remains firm. In Shandong, the inventory goods are sold at a stable pace, with individual townships slowing down. The price of fruit farmers' goods is mainly stable. The Red General in Shandong has started trading, but the overall quality is poor, and it's difficult to organize a large amount of high - quality and red goods. The digestion speed in the sales area is stable, and the profit of early - maturing Fuji for merchants is limited due to high purchase prices [6] - Main production area prices: In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade striped apples is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, and the price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples is 3.30 - 4.20 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the price of 80 starting Red General is 2.3 - 2.8 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the price of 70 and above early - maturing Fuji is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin for the mainstream market, 4.7 - 4.8 yuan/jin for high - quality goods, and 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin for ordinary goods. In Baishui, Shaanxi, the price of 70 starting early - maturing Fuji is 3 - 3.3 yuan/jin [6] 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 1.94%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points in this cycle (20250905 - 0910), and 0.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory removal rate is 96.96%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 3.70%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume is slightly higher than last week. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 1.54%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points, and Shaanxi cold - storage is gradually clearing inventory [11] - As of September 10, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 20.91 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons compared with last week, and the inventory shipment speed in Shandong is slightly accelerating [11] 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles has slightly increased compared with last week, with an average of about 25.6 vehicles per day. The price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets is 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes is 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan Gala is 5.3 - 5.5 yuan/jin for 70 starting in baskets, and 6 - 7 yuan/jin for high - quality fruits. Recently, the arrival volume has increased slightly compared with the off - season, mainly Fuji apples, with a small amount of early - maturing Fuji. The high - quality basket - packed Fuji is sold well, while the box - packed ones are slow [14] - Substitute product price: On September 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 6.84 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it is at the median of the same period in recent years [14] - Profit situation: The profit of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia in the 2024 - 2025 production season is 0.4 yuan/jin, the same as last week [14] - This week, the market arrival volume has increased, the overall sales are good, and the price remains stable. The arrival volume in the wholesale market continues to increase, mainly for the sales of early - maturing apples. The proportion of apples in the cold - storage is small, especially in the northwest. The overall sales of the early - maturing apple market are okay, with a fast sales speed before the Mid - Yuan Festival and a slowdown after the festival [14] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New - season apples may have a poor high - quality fruit rate, but the current price is high, so the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15]

Core Points - Zhejiang's first batch of citrus fruits has been exported to Canada, marking the beginning of the export season for the region's citrus fruits in 2025 [1] - The citrus cooperative plans to export a total of 600 tons of citrus fruits to Canada in nine batches this year, with future exports planned to Indonesia and Russia [2] - The "Lin Hai Honey Orange" brand has gained significant influence, contributing to local farmers' prosperity and rural revitalization [2] Group 1 - The citrus fruits exported from Taizhou are well-received by both domestic and international consumers due to their bright color and tender texture [2] - Taizhou Customs has implemented a "green channel" for fresh and perishable agricultural products, ensuring quick inspection and clearance to facilitate exports [2] - The number of registered citrus orchards and packaging factories in Linhai has increased, reflecting local farmers' enthusiasm for exports [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: This week, the price of the apple futures 2601 contract slightly declined, with a weekly drop of 0.67%. New - season apples in Shandong have a wide price range due to quality differences. Western early - maturing Fuji trading is nearing the end, and the picking of late - maturing Fuji is sporadic. The inventory of apples in cold storage has decreased, but the de - stocking speed in Shandong has slowed down. The market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji, providing some support. It is recommended to take a short - term long - thinking approach for the apple 2601 contract [6]. - Strategy suggestion: Operate with a short - term long - thinking approach for the apple 2601 contract [6]. - Future trading tips: Monitor the listing volume of mid - maturing Fuji and consumption [6]. Group 2: Futures Market - This week, the price of the apple futures 2601 contract slightly declined, with a weekly drop of 0.67%. The latest price was 8273, a decrease of 13 or 0.16%. The trading volume was 43,709, and the open interest was 83,173 [9][11]. - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 1,065 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. Group 3: Spot Market - As of September 19, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer goods of bagged red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per jin; the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per jin [20]. Group 4: Industry Chain Supply - side - As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas across the country was 163,200 tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons from last week [28]. Demand - side - As of September 19, the average daily early - morning arrival of trucks in the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.30 yuan per jin [32]. - As of September 12, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.70 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.38 yuan per kilogram, with no week - on - week change [37]. - As of September 12, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 6.90 yuan per kilogram, with no week - on - week change [41]. - As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export volume of apples was 50,000 tons; the monthly export value was 632.84 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 46.13%; the cumulative export value was 4.88289 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 14.89% [45]. Group 5: Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the relevant chart [46]. Group 6: Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit is presented [48].

Core Insights - The decline in fruit prices, such as blueberries and Sunshine Rose grapes, is primarily driven by supply-demand dynamics, with increased domestic production and rising import volumes contributing to this trend [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The significant increase in the supply of fruits, particularly imported varieties like cherries and blueberries, has led to a downward adjustment in prices [1] - Domestic production of fruits, including Sunshine Rose grapes, has surged, with the planting area reaching nearly 2 million acres and production exceeding 3 million tons, resulting in a price drop from 150 yuan/kg to around 10 yuan/kg [2] - Over the past decade, China's fruit planting area and production have consistently grown, reaching 327 million tons in 2023, with per capita availability surpassing 232 kg, well above the global average [1][2] Import Trends - China's fruit imports have increased significantly, with a 77.1% rise in total imports expected by 2024 compared to 2015, driven by favorable policies and improved logistics [2] - The expansion of import varieties and low tariffs, along with enhanced cold chain logistics, has facilitated easier access to high-quality fruits from around the world [2] Competitive Landscape - The competitiveness of high-quality domestic fruits, such as blueberries, has improved, with China's blueberry planting area and production reaching 95,900 hectares and 780,000 tons respectively by 2024, marking increases of 44.4% and 124.7% since 2020 [3] - The market for imported fruits is becoming more segmented, offering diverse product grades to cater to different consumer preferences, enhancing overall value [3] Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, the continuous growth in global fruit production and trade facilitation, along with the upgrading of domestic fruit industries, is expected to provide consumers with a wider variety of fruits at more reasonable prices [4] - The overall stability of fruit prices is supported by ample market supply and efficient distribution channels, moving consumers closer to achieving "fruit freedom" [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term long positions as the main strategy [2] Core Viewpoints - In the old - crop market, as of September 11, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 20.91 million tons, a decrease of 6.44 million tons from the previous week, with slightly faster inventory clearance. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong decreased by 1.13% to 4.33%, and in Shaanxi decreased by 0.32% to 0.21%. Some merchants in Shandong continued to transfer stored Fuji apples due to the high price of early - maturing Fuji and poor coloration of Red General apples, with relatively stable prices. The digestion speed in the sales areas was relatively stable, and the profit of merchants was relatively limited due to the high price of early - maturing Fuji. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation for the Double Festival [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 8304 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 90526 lots, an increase of 4663 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 2963 lots, a decrease of 3258 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia remained unchanged. The prices were 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China was 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg, and that of Fuji apples was 9.38 yuan/kg, unchanged. The total cold - storage inventory of apples in China was 20.91 million tons, a decrease of 6.44 million tons. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi were 4.33% and 0.21% respectively, with changes of - 1.13% and - 0.01%. The monthly export volume of apples was 50000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 6328.4 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples was 1589295.5 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5 million US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale prices of mandarins, bananas, and watermelons were 8.74 yuan/kg, 5.58 yuan/kg, and 3.62 yuan/kg respectively. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle numbers at Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets were 12, 16, and 25.56 respectively, with changes of 0.4, 1, and 1.96 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options on apples was 20.41%, with a change of 0.04% and 0.06% respectively [2] Industry News - In the western production areas, the trading of early - maturing Fuji was coming to an end, with good - quality goods hard to find, and the actual transaction prices were chaotic due to quality issues. The bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji was generally postponed this year. In Shandong, there was not much good - quality stored Fuji left, and the sales of poor - quality goods were slow. The coloration of Red General apples was poor, and the transaction prices were not high. The supply of mid - maturing Fuji was gradually increasing, and the color and redness of some Fuji apples in the west were average due to short sunshine hours and long rainfall. The price of good - quality goods remained firm [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.40%. New-season medium-ripe Fuji apples are increasing in supply, but the color of some in the west is mediocre due to weather. High-quality goods maintain firm prices. Shandong's Red General apples are being traded, but the quality is relatively poor. In the old crop market, the inventory in cold storage has decreased, and the sales pace has slightly accelerated. The consumption speed in the sales area is stable, but the profit of merchants is limited due to the high price of early-ripening Fuji. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation for the Double Festival. It is recommended to take a short-term long position in the Apple 2601 contract [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.40% [4][8]. - **Market Outlook**: New-season medium-ripe Fuji apples are increasing in supply, with uneven quality. The inventory in cold storage has decreased, and the sales pace has slightly accelerated. The consumption speed in the sales area is stable, and attention should be paid to the stocking situation for the Double Festival [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to take a short-term long position in the Apple 2601 contract [4]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the listing volume of early-ripening Fuji and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 6,221 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [14]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first- and second-grade fruit farmer goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per jin [17]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory in cold storage of main apple-producing areas in China was 209,100 tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons from last week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 4.33%, a decrease of 1.13% from last week; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 0.21%, a decrease of 0.32% from last week [25]. - **Demand Side** - **Wholesale Market**: As of September 11, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning increased. The profit of 80 first- and second-grade apple storage merchants was 0.30 yuan per jin [29]. - **Average Wholesale Price**: As of September 5, 2025, the wholesale price of all varieties of apples was 9.76 yuan per kilogram, a week-on-week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.38 yuan per kilogram, a week-on-week decrease of 0.06 yuan per kilogram [34]. - **Substitute Products**: As of September 5, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 6.90 yuan per kilogram, a week-on-week increase of 0.05 yuan per kilogram [36]. - **Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export volume of apples was 50,000 tons; the monthly export value was 632.84 million US dollars, a month-on-month increase of 46.13%; the cumulative export value was 4.88289 billion US dollars, a month-on-month increase of 14.89% [41]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at-the-money options of apples this week is provided, but no specific data is given [42]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Association - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit is provided, but no specific analysis is given [44].