Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: Approaching Spring Festival Stockpiling, Apple Outbound Speeds Up [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan - Industry: Apple Group 2: Investment Rating - **No investment rating provided in the report** Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The 5 - month contract price of apples is expected to be more likely to rise than fall. The reasons are that although the current national cold - storage apple inventory data shows a relatively low destocking rate, considering the late Spring Festival this year and the peak of apple sales is yet to come, the destocking rate may not be low. Also, the apple warehouse - receipt cost is high this season [14]. Group 4: Spot Analysis - This week, the Spring Festival stockpiling of late - Fuji apples in production areas improved slightly, with the outbound volume increasing month - on - month. Snowfall in some areas during the week slightly affected shipments. Most merchants are still packaging their self - stored goods for market, and the trading volume of farmers' goods has increased slightly, mainly low - priced or extreme - end products, with the overall trading volume still limited. The price of general - quality farmers' goods is stable or weak, and in some areas, farmers are eager to sell, leading to a slight price drop. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks decreased, the transit warehouses were severely congested, the customer flow was scarce, and the sales were slow [7]. - In Shandong, the overall outbound volume accelerated slightly, but snowfall affected the shipping speed in some areas. The number of customers inspecting goods in cold storage increased. The Spring Festival gift - box stockpiling has started. In Zhaoyuan and Penglai, third - grade apples were mainly sold, mostly in gift - box or small - bag packaging. In Qixia, some foreign - trade channels were looking for small - sized apples, and a small amount of third - grade apples were sold. In Yiyuan and Weihai, the number of merchants increased slightly, but the transactions were still average. In Penglai, the mainstream price of Grade 1 and 2 75 farmers' apples is around 3.0 - 3.6 yuan per jin, 4 - 4.5 yuan per jin for 80 Grade 1 and 2, and 1.3 - 2.5 yuan per jin for third - grade apples. In Qixia, the price of Grade 1 and 2 80 late - Fuji red - skinned farmers' apples is 3.5 - 4.5 yuan per jin, 2.2 - 2.5 yuan per jin for 75 general - grade farmers' apples, and 1.7 - 2 yuan per jin for 65 - 70 small apples [7]. - In Shaanxi, the de - stocking rate increased slightly month - on - month. The number of inquiring customers in Yan'an and Weinan increased, and customers were packaging their self - stored goods for shipment, with the shipping volume increasing compared to before. The transactions of farmers' goods were mainly high - quality general - grade and high - grade by - products. In Xianyang, the enthusiasm of merchants to find goods was not high, and the transactions were still light. Overall, the outbound volume in northern Shaanxi was better than that in southern Shaanxi. In Luochuan, the ex - warehouse price of farmers' semi - commercial apples above 70 is around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan per jin, 3.5 - 4 yuan per jin for general - grade apples above 70, and 2.2 yuan per jin for high - grade by - products. In Baishui, the price of high - quality general - grade farmers' apples starting from 75 is about 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per jin [7]. Group 5: Supply Analysis - As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January 15 - 21, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points, and the destocking rate was 14.06%. As the Spring Festival stockpiling stage began, the cold - storage outbound volume gradually increased [10]. - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 49.93%, and it decreased by 1.44 percentage points this week. The cold - storage outbound volume in the production area increased slightly, mainly driven by Spring Festival stockpiling. The packaging volume of merchants in Shandong's cold storage was okay, but the cold - storage shipping volume this year was slightly lower than the same period last year. Some packaged goods were still stored [10]. - In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 45.71%, and it decreased by 1.98 percentage points this week. The number of cold - storage merchants' packaging was okay, and the shipping volume gradually increased. Traders still mainly packaged their self - stored goods and purchased a small amount from farmers because of the high defect rate of farmers' goods and high packaging costs [10]. - In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 47.16%, and it decreased by 2.69 percentage points this week. The outbound situation in Gansu was good, and the packaging enthusiasm of traders was okay. High - quality goods had certain profits, while the packaging willingness for low - quality goods was general [10]. - In other areas, the overall outbound of paper - plus - film Fuji in Shanxi was stable. The e - commerce shipping volume in Yuncheng decreased slightly, and the sales speed of paper - plus - film Fuji slowed down slightly. The purchasing volume of market merchants in the northern production areas increased slightly. In Liaoning, the overall market was stable, with a relatively large number of merchants recently, mainly purchasing low - priced goods [10]. - It is predicted that during the Spring Festival stockpiling stage, the cold - storage packaging volume in production areas will increase, and the packaged goods will be gradually shipped to the market. It is expected that the cold - storage outbound volume will gradually increase next week [10]. - According to Steel Union data, as of January 21, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas was 6.8278 million tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from last week. The destocking speed continued to accelerate month - on - month but was lower than the same period last year [10]. Group 6: Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of incoming trucks in the morning decreased slightly compared to last week, with an average of about 23.6 trucks per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late - Fuji in baskets is 3.3 - 4.4 yuan per jin, and 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per jin in boxes. The actual transaction price is based on quality. The price of Luochuan late - Fuji in baskets starting from 70 is 4.0 - 5.5 yuan per jin, and the price of Jingning late - Fuji in boxes starting from 70 is 4.5 - 6.5 yuan per jin. Recently, the market consumption was still average, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers decreased, there was pressure to digest the incoming trucks within a day, the congestion in transit warehouses increased, and high - quality Gansu goods were the main ones sold. Second - and third - level wholesalers purchased goods as needed [13]. - According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on January 22, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.93 yuan per kilogram, slightly rising from last Friday and at a high level compared to previous years [13]. - During the 2025 - 2026 acquisition season, the profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 Grade 1 and 2 apples were suspended [13]. Group 7: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and go short on the 10 - month contract on rallies [14]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract [14]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Group 8: Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand**: The report presents data on apple exports, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume from 2018 - 2023 [18]. - **Inventory and Outbound**: It shows the national and regional (Shandong, Shaanxi) cold - storage apple inventory, outbound volume, and their trends from 2017/18 - 2025/26 [10][21]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The report provides data on the basis of 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month contracts and the price spreads between 1 - 5, 5 - 10, and 10 - 1 contracts from 2019 - 2026 [26].

Core Insights - The total export volume of Chilean cherries to China (including Hong Kong) for the 2025-2026 season has reached 494,563 tons, approximately 9.89 million boxes, and 26,800 containers, with the majority expected to arrive in the coming weeks [1] - Over 90% of the total shipment for the current season has already reached the market, leading to a significant drop in market prices as the supply exceeds demand [4][6] - The price of Chilean cherries has decreased substantially due to increased supply and improved logistics, with the expected export volume for the current season projected at 1.31 million boxes (approximately 65,500 tons), 90% of which will be sold to China [6][7] Market Pricing - In the Shanghai market, the wholesale price for 5-kilogram LAPINS cherries ranges from 120 to 180 RMB depending on quality, while REGINA cherries are priced between 130 and 230 RMB [4] - Recent data from various e-commerce platforms shows a consistent decline in cherry prices, with a 15% drop for 2J cherries on the 得物 App and similar trends observed on other platforms [5] Supply Chain Dynamics - The increase in cherry prices is attributed to a surge in supply from Chile, where favorable climate conditions have led to a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in production [6] - The optimization of logistics, including the introduction of a dedicated Chilean cherry shipping line that reduces transit time from 30 days to 23 days, has further lowered costs and improved freshness [7]

Core Insights - Guangdong lychee is achieving "year-round online" availability through "frozen dormancy" preservation technology, enabling seasonal supply and global pre-sale channels [1][2] - The global pre-sale procurement channel for Guangdong lychee was officially launched on January 23, 2026, during the fifth China Import and Export Food New Year Festival [1] - The "Oriental Love Fruit" brand for Guangdong lychee has gained significant recognition, becoming a cultural symbol and a focus for high-net-worth individuals and media [3] Group 1: Industry Developments - Guangdong is the largest lychee production area in China, with an annual output accounting for approximately one-fifth of the global total [1] - The total industrial output value of the "Oriental Love Fruit" has surpassed 12 billion yuan, highlighting its status as a prominent global product [1] - The export volume of Guangdong lychee reached 13,000 tons from January to July 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 97.2% [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Continuous upgrades in the lychee industry are being driven by technological innovations such as "frozen dormancy" preservation and the establishment of a three-dimensional logistics network [2] - Full cold chain logistics and air express services enable Guangdong lychee to achieve "next-day delivery" to core domestic markets and fresh availability in the Middle East within hours [2] Group 3: Branding and Marketing - The "Oriental Love Fruit" brand was officially launched at the 21st China (Shenzhen) International Cultural Industry Expo, supported by various governmental departments [3] - The integration of cultural symbols into the export strategy aims to enhance product visibility and market reach, representing a new exploration in agricultural product marketing [3]

Core Viewpoint - A batch of 1.5 tons of fresh avocados from Menglian County, Yunnan Province, has successfully exported to Malaysia and Thailand, marking the first export to ASEAN from this avocado cultivation base [1][3]. Group 1: Export Achievement - The avocados are sourced from a standardized cultivation base in Menglian County, which has established 122,100 acres dedicated to avocado farming, making it a key area for stable supply of high-quality avocados in China [3]. - This export signifies a successful entry into the ASEAN market, showcasing the potential for local agricultural products to reach international consumers [1][3]. Group 2: Government and Customs Support - Local government and customs have implemented an innovative "customs and local cooperation" support mechanism to assist enterprises in overcoming challenges related to export qualifications, quarantine standards, and customs clearance efficiency [3]. - The initiative includes tailored guidance for each enterprise, extending services to the production front lines to help improve quality traceability systems and facilitate the registration of orchards and packaging plants [3]. Group 3: Future Development Plans - Menglian County plans to further enhance the collaboration between government, enterprises, and customs to optimize export processes and promote industrial chain upgrades [3]. - The goal is to enable high-quality Menglian avocados to reach global markets, contributing to rural revitalization and high-quality foreign trade development [3].

Group 1 - The price of imported cherries in China has decreased by over 25% compared to the same period last year, making them more affordable for consumers [1][3] - The decline in prices is attributed to an increase in supply from Chile, where 90% of exported cherries are consumed by Chinese consumers [3][4] - The logistics efficiency has significantly improved, with shipping times from Chile to China reduced from 30 days to 22 days, allowing for fresher products to reach the market [3][4] Group 2 - Chilean cherry exports have seen a remarkable growth of over 8000% in the last 20 years, supporting approximately 500,000 local jobs [4] - The cherries exported to China now meet higher quality standards, with minimum size specifications raised to XL grade, enhancing product reliability [4][6] - The success of Chilean cherries serves as a case study for the global trade and modern agricultural management, highlighting the importance of efficient logistics, market positioning, and brand storytelling [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures Contract 2605 declined with a weekly drop of about 0.06%. The late Fuji apple production areas saw a slight improvement in Spring Festival stocking, with an increase in origin shipment volume. However, snowfall in some production areas during the week slightly affected the shipment. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 6.8278 billion tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from the previous week, and the inventory clearance speed accelerated. The futures price is likely to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term supported by stocking demand [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - by - Week Highlights** - The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 dropped this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.06%. The late Fuji apple production areas' Spring Festival stocking improved slightly, and origin shipment increased. Snowfall in some areas affected shipment. As of January 21, 2026, the national main - production - area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.8278 billion tons (down 218,800 tons from last week), and the inventory clearance accelerated. In the Shandong production area, the storage capacity ratio decreased to 50.30% (down 0.87% from last week); in the Shaanxi production area, it decreased to 52.76% (down 1.56% from last week). In the sales area market, the number of incoming trucks decreased, transit inventory piled up, customers were scarce, and sales were slow. The futures price may fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [4]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Futures Market**: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 fell by about 0.06% this week. As of this week, the net position of the top twenty in apple futures was - 2913 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [9][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above bagged Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.40 yuan per catty [19]. **3.3 Industry Situation and Options** - **Industrial Chain Situation** - **Supply**: As of January 21, 2026, the national main - production - area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.8278 billion tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from last week. The inventory clearance speed accelerated but was still lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area decreased to 50.30% (down 0.87% from last week), and in the Shaanxi production area, it decreased to 52.76% (down 1.56% from last week) [24]. - **Demand** - As of January 23, the average daily number of incoming trucks in the major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0) [28]. - As of January 16, 2026, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.52 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.20 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [32]. - As of January 16, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.83 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [36]. - In December 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.625% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export value was 162,842,207 US dollars [40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented, but specific data not given in the text summary [41]. **3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation** - A graph of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd. (603336) is provided, showing the historical price - earnings ratio from September 30, 2020, to September 30, 2024 [43][44].

Core Insights - The article highlights the proactive efforts of the Jiangxi Province's Xunwu County Federation of Industry and Commerce in promoting the local specialty product, Gan Nan navel oranges, to support rural revitalization and local economic development [1] Group 1: Sales and Marketing Efforts - Xunwu County has mobilized six external chambers of commerce and 1,200 members to assist in selling navel oranges, achieving a total sales volume of 10 million pounds, significantly boosting the local economy [1] - The Federation has established a communication platform to connect external chambers with local authorities, ensuring accurate data on orange production, quality, and market timing for effective promotion [2] - During the fifth anniversary celebration of the Shenzhen Jiangxi Xunwu Chamber of Commerce, a promotional event led to the sale of 200,000 pounds of navel oranges in one day, marking a successful initial sales push [2] Group 2: Brand Promotion Strategies - To enhance the brand influence of Gan Nan navel oranges, the Federation has guided external chambers to create a comprehensive online and offline promotional strategy, utilizing social media and live streaming events to engage consumers [3] - The Guangdong Jiangxi Xunwu Chamber of Commerce's initiative to promote through the "Eastern Treasures" mini-program resulted in the sale of 100,000 pounds in a single day, showcasing effective brand marketing [3] - Offline promotional activities at events and exhibitions have been organized to directly showcase the quality of navel oranges to potential customers [3] Group 3: Sales Channel Development - The Federation encourages external chambers to innovate sales models and diversify sales channels, including community direct sales and group purchasing initiatives [4] - Collaboration with large supermarkets and fresh e-commerce platforms has been facilitated to establish long-term purchasing agreements, enhancing market access for local farmers [4] - The "Chamber + Cooperative + Farmer" model is being explored to create stable order relationships, ensuring farmers' income and addressing sales challenges [4] Group 4: Community Engagement and Future Plans - The Federation emphasizes the importance of community engagement and collaboration among local entrepreneurs to support agricultural development and share resources [5] - A brand marketing promotion event titled "Orange Town Xunwu Beautiful Scene in Pengcheng" is planned to attract more partners and showcase the advantages of Gan Nan navel oranges [5] - Future efforts will focus on deepening cooperation with external chambers, expanding promotional channels, and optimizing production-sales connections to enhance the quality and efficiency of the navel orange industry [5]

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating for the apple market: Neutral [4] - Investment rating for the red date market: Neutral [8] Core Views - The apple market has started the pre - Spring Festival stocking process, but the overall stocking progress is slow. The demand is affected by factors such as the late Spring Festival, lack of consumer power, and the impact of substitute fruits. The price of high - quality apples is firm, while that of ordinary - quality apples is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking progress, sales area transaction atmosphere, inventory outflow, and citrus trading [2][3]. - The red date market has completed the acquisition in Xinjiang. Although there is a reduction in production this season, the overall supply is relatively loose due to the superposition of old and new supplies. The market has entered the Spring Festival stocking stage, and the downstream procurement has increased, but the acceptance of high - price goods is limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on logistics and stocking rhythm, and the actual sales speed and inventory clearance in the traditional twelfth lunar month [7]. Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9371 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.28%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1171 and AP05 - 971 decreased by 26 compared to the previous day [1]. Red Date - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 8700 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton (-1.30%) from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 - 700 increased by 115 compared to the previous day [5]. Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price opened low and closed down yesterday. The overall transaction in the production area is slow, and the demand is weak. The price of high - quality apples is firm, while that of ordinary - quality apples is under pressure. The stocking progress is slow, and the sales area has problems such as inventory backlog and weak demand due to the impact of substitute fruits [3]. Red Date - The red date futures price fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market is focusing on terminal consumption. Although there is a production reduction, the supply is loose. The market has entered the stocking stage, and the downstream procurement has increased, but the acceptance of high - price goods is limited [7]. Strategy - The strategy for both the apple and red date markets is neutral [4][8]

Core Insights - The rise of "black strawberries" as a new luxury fruit, with prices exceeding 300 yuan per pound, contrasts with the significant price drop of cherries [2][7] - Black strawberries, primarily varieties like Black Pearl and True Red Meiling, are gaining popularity due to their higher sugar content and unique taste [7][8] Market Trends - The market for black strawberries is characterized by a mix of high demand for unique fruit experiences and fluctuating prices, with some products experiencing multiple price adjustments [7][8] - Black strawberries are positioned as a niche product catering to high-end experiences, social sharing, and gifting, rather than replacing traditional strawberry varieties in the short term [8] Consumer Behavior - There is a growing consumer interest in trying new fruit varieties, with platforms like Hema introducing black strawberries at competitive prices, indicating a shift towards premium fruit consumption [7][8] - The trend of "niche fruits" reflects a broader segmentation in fruit consumption, with consumers willing to pay a premium for unique and high-quality products [8][9] Production Challenges - The cultivation of black strawberries faces significant challenges, including high spoilage rates, lower yields compared to traditional strawberries, and difficulties in managing growing conditions [8][9] - The need for improved cultivation techniques and cost management is critical for black strawberries to achieve market stability and broader acceptance [9]

Core Insights - The emergence of "black strawberries" as a new luxury fruit, with prices exceeding 300 yuan per kilogram, indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards high-end fruit varieties [1][5] - Black strawberries, primarily varieties like Black Pearl and True Red Meiling, are gaining popularity due to their higher sugar content and unique taste profile [5][6] - The market for black strawberries is characterized by significant price fluctuations and a focus on niche, high-end consumer experiences rather than mass-market appeal [6][7] Group 1 - Black strawberries are being sold at premium prices, with examples including 500 grams priced at 315 yuan and 750 grams at 133 yuan, indicating a strong market demand [1] - The sugar content of black strawberries is notably higher than that of traditional varieties, often reaching between 15 to 19 degrees, enhancing their flavor profile [5] - The introduction of black strawberries into retail platforms like Hema has seen a growing consumer interest, with over 10,000 monthly orders despite their higher price compared to traditional strawberries [6] Group 2 - The fruit market is experiencing a trend of consumption stratification, with luxury fruits like black strawberries being positioned for high-end experiences, while traditional varieties compete on scale and price [6][7] - Challenges in cultivating black strawberries include lower yields, higher susceptibility to spoilage, and the need for advanced agricultural techniques, which may hinder widespread adoption among farmers [7][8] - The long-term success of black strawberries will depend on improvements in cultivation technology and cost management to make them more accessible to a broader consumer base [8]