Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the relationship between Brazil's commodity export cycle and the fluctuations of the Brazilian Real, aiming to reveal the transmission logic and influencing mechanisms between the two [9]. - By analyzing Brazil's economic structure, commodity export cycle, and the historical trends of the Real, the report provides insights for commodity research and investment strategies [2][50]. Group 2: Understanding the Brazilian Economy Economic Aggregate - Brazil is an emerging market country with a GDP of over $2 trillion and ranks 10th among the world's largest economies, accounting for about 2.0% of the global GDP in 2024 [11][13]. - Historically, Brazil's GDP growth has experienced rapid development, debt crises, and periods of slowdown, with the current growth rate gradually declining [15]. Economic Structure - In terms of industrial structure, Brazil's economy is dominated by the service sector, followed by industry, and agriculture serves as the foundation. In 2024, the service, industry, and agriculture sectors accounted for 59.31%, 21.33%, and 5.58% of GDP, respectively [17]. - From a demand - side perspective, Brazil's economic structure is characterized by stable consumption growth, significant fluctuations in investment and trade. In 2024, final consumption expenditure accounted for about 82.6% of GDP, capital formation accounted for about 16.9%, and the net export of goods and services accounted for about 0.5% [22][24]. - Commodity exports play a crucial role in Brazil's economy, with a strong correlation between net exports and commodity net exports. In 2024, the net export of goods was about $742 billion, while the net import of services was about $546 billion [27]. Group 3: Brazil's Commodity Export Cycle Commodity Export Structure - Brazil's commodity exports are highly dependent on commodities, with iron ore, soybeans, crude oil, and sugar being the top four export products. In 2024, these major commodities contributed over $1800 billion in foreign exchange earnings [34][36]. - The underlying reason for Brazil's high - commodity export dependence is its abundant natural resources, including significant agricultural and mineral resources [38][39]. Commodity Export Quantity and Price - The sources of quantity and price contributions vary among different commodities. For sugar, crude oil, and beef, changes in export volume contribute more to export revenue growth, while for iron ore, soybeans, coffee, and others, changes in export prices contribute more [42]. - Historically, the price fluctuations of commodities have had a more significant impact on Brazil's export revenue than changes in export volume, and the RJ/CRB commodity index is positively correlated with Brazil's commodity export revenue [42][48]. Group 4: Real's Rise and Fall and Commodity Export Cycle Review 2001 - 2011: Rising Export Revenue and Appreciating Real - Due to the rapid growth of Chinese and global demand, Brazil's commodity export revenue increased by $1954 billion from 2001 to 2011, with exports to China increasing by $424 billion, accounting for 22% of the total increase [50]. - The Real strengthened due to the commodity super - cycle and the Lula government's macro - economic policies. The demand - pull effect was stronger than the negative impact of currency appreciation on export competitiveness [50][52]. 2011 - 2016: Declining Export Revenue and Depreciating Real - Affected by the slowdown of global and Chinese economic growth, oversupply of major commodities, and the expected shift in the Fed's monetary policy, Brazil's commodity export revenue decreased by about 29% from 2011 to 2016 [62]. - The Real depreciated significantly due to the deterioration of Brazil's domestic economic fundamentals and the shift in the Fed's monetary policy. The depreciation of the exchange rate did not significantly promote commodity exports [62]. 2016 - Present: Rising Export Revenue and Depreciating Real - Since 2016, with the global economic recovery, the stable growth of the Chinese economy, and the J - curve effect of the Real's depreciation, Brazil's trade balance has improved, and commodity export revenue has increased rapidly [76]. - From 2016 to 2024, Brazil's total commodity export revenue increased by $1575 billion, with an increase of $592 billion in the Chinese market, accounting for about 38%. The export revenue of crude oil has increased significantly [76]. Group 5: Insights for Commodity Research - The global commodity demand cycle is the decisive factor for commodity prices and Brazil's export performance, with a far greater impact than exchange - rate fluctuations [4][5]. - The boosting effect of exchange - rate depreciation on Brazil's exports has limitations and lag, and the magnification effect on local - currency earnings can support the expansion of commodity production capacity and provide hedging opportunities [5]. - When the US dollar price of a specific commodity strengthens and the local currency depreciates simultaneously, one can focus on short - selling opportunities for commodities with clear downward drivers in fundamentals and a high proportion of Brazilian production capacity in global supply. Conversely, when the local currency appreciates and commodity prices remain low, one can focus on long - buying opportunities for commodities with clear upward drivers in fundamentals and a high proportion of Brazilian production capacity [6]. Group 6: Appendix: Real's Historical Review and Influencing Factors Historical Review of the Real's Trends - Since the 1970s - 1980s, Brazil has experienced periods of hyperinflation, currency reforms, and exchange - rate regime changes. The Real has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation, affected by factors such as the global economic environment, commodity prices, and domestic policies [96]. Influencing Factors of the Real - International financial environment and external monetary policies: Cross - border capital risk preferences, Fed's monetary policy, and commodity prices all affect the exchange rate of the Real. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, the Real depreciated rapidly due to the decrease in cross - border capital risk preferences [99][100][102]. - Brazil's economic fundamentals: Economic growth prospects, debt risks, and monetary policies also influence the Real. Brazil's current economic prospects are not very optimistic, with high debt risks and an inflation - targeting monetary policy framework [106][113][120].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was impacted by a decline in lithium prices, with revenue of 5.547 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 532 million yuan, down 45.25% year-on-year [11]. - The report anticipates a recovery in performance due to increasing demand for lithium carbonate driven by energy storage needs, with lithium prices gradually stabilizing and rising [2][11]. - The target price for the company has been raised to 56.80 yuan, reflecting an increase in valuation based on industry peers [11][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 12.189 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.074 billion yuan in 2024, before recovering to 8.412 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.1% by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease significantly from 3.407 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.043 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 1.253 billion yuan by 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.42 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.32 yuan by 2027 [4][11]. Market and Industry Analysis - The company operates in the special steel and lithium carbonate sectors, with a focus on optimizing product structure and enhancing market share in key areas such as nuclear power and automotive high-purity steel [11]. - The report highlights a robust demand for lithium carbonate, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is expected to support price stabilization and recovery [11][12]. - The company is actively managing costs and expanding its raw material sources to maintain competitive advantages in the market [11].

Core Insights - North Africa is emerging as a key engine of economic growth in Africa, driven by strong performances from Egypt and Morocco, while countries like Mauritania remain heavily reliant on resource-based rent economies [1] Economic Growth Projections - The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the overall growth rate for the six North African countries (Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya) will reach 4% in 2025, surpassing the average growth rate of 3.9% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 2% for the Middle East [1] Economic Diversification and Challenges - Morocco and Egypt have made significant progress in economic diversification and attracting foreign investment, while Mauritania faces challenges due to its heavy reliance on mining and marine fishing for revenue, indicating a closed rent-seeking economic model [1] - Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya are also hindered by structural issues that prevent them from fully unleashing their economic potential [1] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that North Africa's ability to maintain its status as a leading growth region in Africa depends on the implementation of substantial economic structural reforms, deepening regional trade integration, and reducing reliance on natural resources as the primary source of income [1]

Core Viewpoint - In September 2025, Estonia's industrial output decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in the industrial sector despite growth in mining [1] Group 1: Industrial Performance - The overall industrial output in Estonia fell by 1.5% year-on-year in September 2025 [1] - The mining sector experienced a growth of 4.8% year-on-year [1] - The manufacturing sector saw a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year [1] - Energy production output significantly decreased by 18.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Breakdown - Within the manufacturing sector, metal products manufacturing grew by 10.2% year-on-year [1] - Computer and electronic products manufacturing increased by 8.1% year-on-year [1] - Wood manufacturing output rose by 5.1% year-on-year [1] - Food manufacturing output grew by 2.2% year-on-year [1] - Conversely, shale oil production plummeted by 37.9% year-on-year [1] - Machinery manufacturing output declined by 22.2% year-on-year [1] - Beverage manufacturing output fell by 21% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights 14 typical illegal activities related to land use, mining, and ecological destruction identified by the Ministry of Natural Resources and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration in the third quarter of 2025, emphasizing the need for local governments to rectify these issues and strengthen regulatory responsibilities [1]. Group 1: Illegal Land Use and Mining Activities - Hebei Province's Xuanhua Huasheng Steel Co., Ltd. illegally occupied 118.24 acres of forest land for mining without obtaining necessary permits since June 2020 [2]. - Shanxi Province's Qiangsheng Sand and Stone Co., Ltd. changed its mining operations from sand to iron ore without authorization, violating its mining license obtained in July 2018 [7]. - Inner Mongolia's Hongmou destroyed 129.19 acres of forest land for cultivation [14]. - Liaoning Province's Xin Da (Liaoning) Tourism Development Co., Ltd. illegally occupied 44.44 acres of land, including 30.54 acres of black soil farmland, for a leisure tourism project without approval [19]. - Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region's Beihai Fisheries Base Management Center illegally filled 23.09 acres of sea for a port project without approval [41]. - Chongqing's Fengdu County government allowed illegal mining of 33.59 million tons of building sand by a local company under the guise of agricultural construction [63]. Group 2: Regulatory Failures and Rectification Issues - The article stresses the importance of local governments adhering to their responsibilities in land and ecological protection, avoiding simplistic or one-size-fits-all approaches to rectification [1]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration will continue to monitor the rectification of these issues to ensure compliance with laws and regulations [1]. - The article mentions that some companies, like Chengmai Changfeng Energy-saving Building Materials Co., Ltd., attempted to fake compliance with rectification measures, highlighting the need for stricter oversight [53].

Core Insights - France's industrial output increased by 0.8% month-on-month in September, significantly surpassing market expectations of 0.1% and rebounding from a revised decline of 0.9% in the previous month [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector was the primary driver of the industrial output recovery, with a month-on-month growth of 0.9% in September [1] - Notable growth was observed in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector, which surged by 5.5%, while the electrical, electronic, and computer equipment manufacturing sectors grew by 1.2% [1] - The food processing and coking and refining industries also saw increases of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively [1] Other Sectors - In contrast, the mining, energy, and water supply sectors experienced stagnation in September, contributing no growth to the overall industrial output [1] - The construction sector saw a month-on-month decline of 1.3%, with housing construction activities dropping by 5.2% and specialized construction engineering decreasing by 1.0% [1] Quarterly Performance - For the third quarter of 2025 (July to September), France's industrial activity grew by 1.4% compared to the second quarter [1] - Year-on-year data indicated that industrial output in September increased by 1.1% [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's GDP growth for Q3 2025 is reported at 5.04%, aligning closely with market expectations of 5% but slightly lower than the previous quarter's growth of 5.12% [1] - Key drivers of economic growth include exports and government spending, with exports of goods and services increasing by 9.91% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment and private consumption growth have slowed, with fixed asset investment growing by 5.04% and household final consumption expenditure increasing by 4.89% [1] Economic Performance - The trade surplus for September reached $4.34 billion, marking 65 consecutive months of surplus since May 2020 [1] - The quarterly economic growth rate is 1.43%, with the electricity and gas sector showing the highest growth at 5.42% [1] - Other sectors such as construction and manufacturing also showed positive growth, while public administration and financial services experienced contraction [1] Government Outlook - The Indonesian government maintains its GDP growth target for the year at 5.2%, supported by sound fiscal policies and expectations of loose monetary policy [2] - The Finance Minister has set a target for Q4 growth to exceed 5.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing issues of illegal land occupation, mining, and ecological destruction in various regions of China, as reported by the Ministry of Natural Resources and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration for the third quarter of 2025 [3][8]. Group 1: Illegal Land Occupation - Hebei Province's Xuanhua Huasheng Steel Co., Ltd. illegally occupied 118.24 acres of forest land for mining without the necessary administrative permits since June 2020 [3]. - In Liaoning Province, the New Dada (Liaoning) Tourism Development Co., Ltd. unlawfully occupied 44.44 acres of land, including 30.54 acres of black soil farmland, for a camping project [4]. - In Henan Province, illegal sand extraction activities have damaged 68.82 acres of permanent basic farmland from April 2020 to March 2025 [4]. - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region's Beihai Fisheries Base Management Center illegally filled 23.09 acres of sea for a fishing port project without approval [5]. - The Zunyi City Management Committee in Guizhou Province unlawfully occupied 273.61 acres for the construction of a scenic area without proper land use approvals [5]. Group 2: Illegal Mining Activities - Shanxi Province's Qiangsheng Sand and Stone Co., Ltd. illegally changed its mining operations from sand to iron ore without the necessary permits [6]. - The Chongqing government allowed the Chongqing Quanshun Animal Husbandry Technology Co., Ltd. to illegally mine 33.59 million tons of building sand under the guise of agricultural facility construction [6]. Group 3: Ecological Destruction - In Inner Mongolia, an individual illegally cleared 129.19 acres of forest land for cultivation [6]. - In Heilongjiang Province, illegal deforestation activities have occurred in a protected area, with 123.64 acres cleared [7]. - The Wuzhou City Construction Investment Co., Ltd. unlawfully occupied 915.23 acres of forest land for mining and construction activities [7]. - Yunnan Province's Zhenghe Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. illegally logged 281.99 cubic meters of timber, affecting 219.28 acres of forest land [7]. Group 4: Regulatory Response - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration emphasized the need for local governments to rectify these issues in accordance with laws and regulations, avoiding simplistic or one-size-fits-all solutions [8]. - Continuous monitoring of the rectification efforts will be conducted to ensure compliance with legal standards [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a 5.2% year-over-year increase in service revenues for the first nine months of 2025, with EBITDA rising 6.7% year-over-year and a net income increase of 42.2% year-over-year [4][5] - Operational cash flow reached R$ 4.5 billion, with a disciplined approach to CapEx maintaining investment efficiency [4][14] - The company announced R$ 1.8 billion in interest on capital and repurchased R$ 369 million in shares, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder remuneration [5][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Mobile service revenues increased by 5.6% annually over nine months, with postpaid expansion being a key contributor [5] - The broadband segment showed operational improvements, with broadband ARPU at R$ 94 in the third quarter and a 3.7% year-over-year growth in the client base [7] - The B2B segment is expanding, with IoT solutions covering 23.5 million hectares and generating R$ 435 million in contracted revenues since Q1 2024 [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has the broadest 4G and 5G coverage in Brazil, with 5G now available in 1,000 cities [7] - The competitive environment in mobile remains rational, with no significant disruptions from smaller players [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on innovation, customer experience, and operational excellence to drive sustainable growth [4] - The strategy includes a "more-for-more" approach to optimize the cost-benefit equation and enhance value propositions [6] - The company aims to maintain strong performance in mobile postpaid and B2B segments while continuing to recover prepaid and broadband [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 2025 goals and delivering value through strong performance in mobile postpaid and B2B segments [15] - The company anticipates a stabilization in prepaid and broadband segments, with improvements expected in top-line growth [20] Other Important Information - The company reached the top 10 of the FTSE & Russell Diversity and Inclusion Index, highlighting its commitment to ESG practices [5] - The Revamp My Team app has over 17.7 million unique users, driving digital engagement and e-commerce growth [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Mobile service revenues deceleration - Management noted that the deceleration in mobile service revenues is consistent with seasonal patterns and not heavily influenced by competition [18][19] Question: Competitive environment and price adjustments - The competitive environment remains positive, with plans for potential price adjustments in the postpaid segment next year [26][27] Question: Lease efficiency plan and partnerships - The company is in discussions with partners regarding lease efficiency, aiming to keep lease costs stable while expanding coverage [31][33] Question: Fiber business and customer acquisition - Improvements in customer acquisition quality and churn management have led to positive net additions in the fiber business [39][40] Question: B2B and IoT growth opportunities - The company is focusing on specific verticals for B2B growth, with ambitions to expand its portfolio of solutions [50][51] Question: Operating cash flow growth rate - Management confirmed guidance for operating cash flow growth, expecting it to align with previous forecasts [58][59] Question: Price increase magnitude and base affected - The company implemented price adjustments for both control and pure postpaid customers, with plans to explore further adjustments in the next quarter [64][65]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "关注" (focus) investment rating for the company, indicating potential investment interest [3][4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the non-ferrous metal inspection and testing sector, with a strong focus on advanced precision instrument development and capacity expansion [2][12]. - The company has been ranked first in the non-ferrous metal inspection and testing field from 2021 to 2023, showcasing its market leadership [12][28]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 26.87% to 31.61% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, with net profit growth projected at 25.08% to 38.02% [32]. Summary by Sections Initial Offering - The company plans to issue 28.32 million shares at a price of 6.7 yuan per share, with an initial market capitalization of 13.77 times earnings [3][6]. - The total number of shares after the offering will be 113.28 million, with 25% of shares being publicly tradable [6][7]. Business Overview - The company is recognized as a national-level "specialized, refined, characteristic, and innovative" small giant, focusing on non-ferrous metal inspection and testing services [12][28]. - The company has a projected gross margin of 66.68% for 2024, indicating strong profitability in its testing services [17][24]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.10 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 20.41%, and expects to reach 1.48 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 33.99% [31][32]. - The net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be between 58 million and 64 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.08% to 38.02% [32]. Industry Insights - The revenue for the mining and metallurgy inspection and testing industry in China is projected to reach 5.6 billion yuan in 2024, with increasing market concentration [38][46]. - The overall market size of the inspection and testing industry in China has grown from 206.51 billion yuan in 2016 to an estimated 487.60 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.34% [38][40]. Comparable Companies - The report identifies comparable companies in the industry, including Huace Testing and Steel Research, to provide context for the company's market position [49].