Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corp. - **Ticker**: 1810.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$1.5 trillion / US$198.1 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$1.3 trillion / US$172.5 billion - **Current Price**: HK$59.45 - **Target Price**: HK$66.00 - **Upside Potential**: 11.0% [1][21] Key Product Launches - **Xiaomi 17 Series**: Launched flagship smartphones including Xiaomi 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max with innovative features and competitive pricing starting from Rmb4,499 for the base model [1][25] - **AIoT Products**: Introduction of 6 new premium AIoT products including tablets, TVs, routers, and smart speakers, with a focus on the European market [1][44] - **HyperOS 3.0**: Upgraded operating system with enhanced efficiency and AI capabilities [1][46] Core Insights 1. **Smartphone Pricing Strategy**: - The 17 Pro's pricing is Rmb200-500 lower than previous versions, potentially attracting more consumers and increasing market share in the Rmb5k+ segment [2][27] - Xiaomi's market share in the Rmb5-6k segment was approximately 15% in 2Q25, compared to 25% in the Rmb4-5k segment [2][21] 2. **Electric Vehicle (EV) Commitment**: - Launched customization services for YU7 Max and SU7 Ultra, aiming to strengthen its position in China's premium auto market [3][22] - Average delivery capacity is expected to increase as the run rate approaches 10k units/week [3][22] 3. **AIoT Warranty Service**: - Announced a 10-year free warranty for all ACs sold from 2025, surpassing the industry standard of 6 years [4][20] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Projected revenue for 2024 is Rmb365.9 billion, increasing to Rmb737.6 billion by 2027 [7][21] - Total revenue growth rates are expected to be 35.0% in 2024, 29.2% in 2025, and 20.0% in 2027 [15][21] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - New EPS estimates are Rmb1.07 for 2024, Rmb1.56 for 2025, and Rmb2.62 for 2027 [7][21] - **Profit Margins**: - EBITDA margin projected to increase from 8.4% in 2024 to 11.9% in 2027 [15][21] Market Dynamics - **AIoT Revenue Growth**: Expected to moderate in 2026 due to a higher base, with a notable slowdown in growth rates [50][21] - **Competitive Landscape**: Xiaomi's pricing strategy aims to capture market share from competitors, particularly in the premium smartphone segment [27][21] Additional Considerations - **Upcoming Events**: - Monitoring EV delivery capacity ramp-up and Singles' Day GMV data [22][21] - Anticipation of new EV model filings with MIIT [22][21] - **Investment Recommendation**: - Maintain a "BUY" rating with a target price of HK$66, reflecting a modest increase from previous estimates [21][1] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Xiaomi conference call, highlighting product launches, financial projections, and strategic insights into the company's market positioning and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership between TUSI and UBTECH aims to integrate spatial intelligence and embodied intelligence to enhance the capabilities of humanoid robots, creating a new paradigm for multimodal training and promoting the comprehensive deployment of intelligent robots [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Collaboration - TUSI, a leader in spatial intelligence, and UBTECH, a pioneer in humanoid robotics, have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to share and innovate on their respective technologies [1][3]. - The collaboration is based on mutual recognition of each other's technological strengths and industrial value, aiming to create highly autonomous and interactive next-generation intelligent robots [3]. Group 2: Technological Capabilities - UBTECH possesses full-stack technology capabilities in humanoid robotics, including advanced hardware, AI technology, and integration of robotics with AI [3]. - TUSI has developed a three-layer strategic system focusing on AIoT infrastructure, AIoT domain models, and AIoT intelligent agents, with nearly 10,000 spatial intelligence project cases since 2015 [3][4]. Group 3: Spatial Intelligence - Spatial intelligence is crucial for robots to interact with the physical world, enabling them to understand complex, unstructured environments [4]. - TUSI's self-developed spatial large model allows for multi-modal integration and reasoning, helping robots to comprehend physical laws and perform complex task planning [4]. Group 4: AIoT Intelligent Agents - TUSI's intelligent agents possess capabilities such as human-like thinking, long-term memory, high-dimensional perception, and teamwork, enhancing robots' decision-making and collaborative abilities in complex environments [5]. - UBTECH's humanoid robots serve as intelligent terminals that can autonomously move and perform precise operations, continuously validating and enhancing spatial reasoning models through real-world interactions [5]. Group 5: Market Implications - The partnership between TUSI and UBTECH is expected to create significant opportunities for business upgrades and global market expansion, especially as TUSI is in the process of an IPO [5].

Core Insights - A strategic partnership has been established between Teslian, a leading AIoT company in China, and UBTECH, known as the "first humanoid robot stock," focusing on the integration of spatial intelligence and embodied intelligence [1][2][3] - The collaboration aims to create a new paradigm of multimodal training based on spatial intelligence, enhancing the capabilities of intelligent robots in real-world environments [1][2] Group 1: Company Profiles - Teslian has been deeply involved in the spatial intelligence sector since 2015, with nearly 10,000 project cases, establishing a three-tier strategic system centered on AIoT infrastructure, models, and intelligent agents [2] - UBTECH possesses leading technologies in robot hardware, AI, and the integration of robotics and AI, which are crucial for the development of intelligent agents capable of interacting with the physical world [1][2] Group 2: Technological Integration - The partnership emphasizes the deep integration of spatial intelligence and embodied intelligence, aiming to develop the next generation of intelligent robots with high autonomy and interaction capabilities in the physical world [2] - The combination of Teslian's spatial models and high-quality spatial data with UBTECH's humanoid robots will enhance the robots' ability to autonomously navigate and perform precise operations in real environments [3] Group 3: Market Implications - The collaboration is expected to create significant opportunities for business upgrades and global market expansion, especially as Teslian is in the process of an IPO, potentially becoming the "first AIoT stock" [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's diversified strategy is supporting resilient growth, with significant contributions from its automotive and IoT businesses, despite a decline in smartphone revenue [4][10]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaomi's revenue grew by 30.5% year-over-year, with the smartphone business accounting for less than half of total revenue [4]. - The IoT business achieved a record revenue of 38.7 billion yuan, marking a 44.7% year-over-year increase, driven by the expansion of offline stores [8]. - Smartphone revenue declined by 2% year-over-year, with a 2.7% drop in average selling price (ASP) [10]. Product and Market Strategy - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments have seen eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth, although revenue was offset by ASP declines [9]. - The launch of the YU7 electric SUV exceeded expectations with over 240,000 orders in 18 hours, indicating strong demand for Xiaomi's automotive offerings [15]. - Xiaomi plans to open 1,000 new direct stores annually to enhance channel control and operational efficiency [8]. Innovation and R&D - Xiaomi's first self-developed 3nm flagship chip, XRING O1, has been officially released, showcasing its commitment to long-term innovation and breakthroughs in the high-end market [9][15]. - The company is expected to invest 30 billion yuan in R&D by 2025, with approximately 25% allocated to AI [15]. Strategic Insights - The integration of smartphones, electric vehicles, and AIoT is central to Xiaomi's strategy, creating a connected ecosystem that enhances user engagement and drives IoT hardware sales [11]. - Xiaomi's electric vehicle business is projected to achieve quarterly or monthly profitability by late 2025, although full profitability will take longer due to significant initial investments [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Xiaomi Group's automotive performance in Q2 is impressive, while the smartphone business adjustments are largely in line with expectations [1] - Xiaomi's Q2 revenue and adjusted net profit were 116 billion and 10.8 billion RMB respectively, meeting market expectations [1] - Automotive revenue increased by 40% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.4%, a historical high driven by average selling price growth and platform scale effects [1] Group 2 - Smartphone revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year, primarily due to the REDMI A5 launch lowering overseas average selling prices, while domestic average selling prices benefited from an increase in high-end model proportions [1] - Smartphone gross margin declined by 0.9 percentage points to 11.5% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to rising storage prices impacting mid-to-low-end models [2] - AIOT revenue grew by 45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.5%, slightly down by 2.7 percentage points due to the 618 promotion [2] Group 3 - The company maintained a "buy" rating but adjusted the target price from 67 HKD to 60 HKD based on a 25x P/E for mobile and a 2.2x P/S for automotive business by 2026 [1] - The forecast for automotive revenue in 2026 was slightly adjusted to 182 billion RMB from a previous estimate of 181.7 billion RMB [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were lowered to 483 billion and 605.8 billion RMB respectively, along with adjusted earnings per share estimates for those years [2]

Core Insights - The early losses in the artificial intelligence industry are seen as a common challenge, with significant R&D investments and a lengthy commercialization phase being typical for technology-driven sectors [1] - Despite the losses, there are underlying signs of value growth, particularly for Teslion, a leading AIoT company preparing for its IPO in Hong Kong [1] Company Overview - Teslion, established in 2015, focuses on three strategic directions within the AIoT field: AIoT models, AIoT infrastructure, and AIoT intelligent agents [3] - The company's AI industry digitalization business is expected to experience explosive growth in 2024, with revenue projected to increase from 624 million to 1.64 billion, marking a 162.9% rise [3] Financial Performance - Teslion's total customer base grew from 224 in 2022 to 342 in 2024, with annual new customer signings of 175, 193, and 194 respectively [3] - The company achieved remarkable revenue growth from 738 million in 2022 to 1.843 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 83.2% and a compound annual growth rate of 58% over three years [3] Competitive Position - Teslion's growth rate outpaces other publicly listed AI companies, with competitors like SenseTime (10.8%), Horizon Robotics (53.6%), UBTech (23.6%), and Fourth Paradigm (25.1%) lagging behind [4] - A significant portion of Teslion's reported losses is attributed to non-cash items such as changes in the fair value of preferred shares, indicating that the actual operational performance is improving [4] Market Recognition and Future Prospects - In the "2025 China Unicorn Enterprise Development Report," Teslion ranks 24th among 115 unicorns in Beijing and 5th among AI companies [5] - The company is expected to raise 650 million in its D++ round of financing, with a post-investment valuation of 21.619 billion, positioning it as a potential leader in the Hong Kong IPO market for AI companies [4] - The upcoming IPO is anticipated to enhance the attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market's technology sector and inject new vitality into value discovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Xiaomi Group-W (01810) Q2 performance is largely in line with expectations, with a 30% year-on-year revenue growth and a 75% increase in adjusted net profit, exceeding the bank's forecasts by 7% to 13% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 30% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in AIoT, which grew by 45%, surpassing Goldman Sachs and market predictions by 2% and 8% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit rose by 75% year-on-year, exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] Product Performance - Electric vehicle sales offset weak smartphone sales, indicating a shift in product demand [1] Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for Xiaomi from 2025 to 2027 remain largely unchanged, but adjusted net profit forecasts have been lowered by 1% to 4% due to increased R&D investments and taxes [1] - Target price has been reduced from HKD 69 to HKD 65, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Xiaomi's stock performance has aligned closely with index trends, with a year-to-date increase of 54% [1] - Concerns about the slowdown in AIoT sales growth and the gradual increase in electric vehicle manufacturing capacity have been noted, despite a slight rise in delivery volumes in August [1]

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) business has become the biggest highlight for Xiaomi in the latest quarter, with both Morgan Stanley and UBS emphasizing that EV deliveries will be a key driver for the stock price in the second half of the year [1][5][11]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi's Q2 2025 adjusted net profit reached 10.831 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 75.4%, marking the highest quarterly profit in history [3]. - Total revenue for Q2 reached 115.956 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 3% [15]. - The company's overall gross margin improved to 22.5%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but down 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Business Segment Analysis - The EV business showed a gross margin of 26.4%, significantly up by 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profit potential [8]. - AIoT business gross margin was 22.5%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The smartphone business faced challenges with a gross margin of 11.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reflecting intense market competition [10]. Electric Vehicle Business Insights - UBS maintains a delivery forecast of 720,000 units for 2026, assuming full capacity operation of the second-phase factory [14]. - The average selling price of EVs increased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to 254,000 RMB, driven by high-end models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [11]. - The strong order intake for the YU7 model is expected to drive EV delivery volumes, which will be a key catalyst for stock price growth in the second half of the year [13]. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 62 HKD, indicating an 18% upside potential from the current stock price [1][5]. - The company's diversified business strategy is proving effective, with the rapid development of the EV business opening new growth avenues [17].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the explosive growth of Xiaomi's electric vehicle (EV) business is effectively compensating for the slowdown in its smartphone business, with the ramp-up of production capacity at the Beijing second factory in the second half of the year expected to be a catalyst for the stock price [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 reached 1159.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 3% [9] - The AIoT business revenue was 387 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, surpassing expectations by 18% [9] - The EV business revenue was 213 billion RMB, more than doubling year-on-year and exceeding estimates by 6% [9] - Smartphone business revenue was 455 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 2%, falling short of expectations by 8% [9] - Internet services revenue was 91 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%, but 5% below expectations [10] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for the company reached 22.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The EV business gross margin was 26.4%, significantly increasing by 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profitability prospects [6] - The AIoT business gross margin was 22.5%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The smartphone business gross margin was 11.5%, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, due to intense market competition [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The EV business is seen as the biggest highlight for Xiaomi in the current quarter, with average selling prices increasing by 6.4% to 254,000 RMB, driven by high-end models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [8] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the delivery volume of EVs will be a key driver for the stock price in the second half of the year, especially following strong orders for the YU7 model [8] - UBS maintains a delivery forecast of 720,000 units for 2026, assuming full capacity operation at the second factory, which requires stable production capacity by the end of Q4 [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a record high total revenue of RMB 1160 billion in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 108 billion, up 75.4% year-on-year, showcasing strong profitability and growth potential [1][3][12]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 reached RMB 1159.6 billion, marking a 30.5% increase compared to the previous year, surpassing the forecast of RMB 1149.4 billion [4]. - Adjusted net profit was RMB 108.3 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 75.4%, exceeding the expected RMB 102.3 billion [5]. - Operating profit stood at RMB 134.4 billion, outperforming the forecast of RMB 104.3 billion [6]. - Gross margin improved to 22.5%, although it slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. - R&D expenditure reached RMB 77.6 billion, up 41.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected RMB 71.8 billion [8]. Business Segment Performance Electric Vehicle and AI Segment - Revenue from the electric vehicle and AI segment reached RMB 213 billion, with the automotive business contributing RMB 206 billion, reflecting a staggering year-on-year growth of 233.9% [10][12]. - The number of new car deliveries was 81,302, a 197.7% increase from the previous year [12]. - The gross margin for the automotive segment was 26.4%, significantly up from 15.4% year-on-year, with operating losses narrowing to RMB 3 billion [13]. Smartphone Business - Smartphone revenue was RMB 455 billion, down 2.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) [10][14]. - Despite a slight increase in global shipment volume to 42.4 million units, the gross margin for smartphones fell from 12.1% to 11.5% due to intensified market competition and promotional activities [10][14]. - Xiaomi's high-end smartphone strategy is showing results, with a 27.6% market share in high-end smartphones in mainland China, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [14]. IoT and Home Appliances - The IoT and lifestyle product segment generated RMB 387 billion in revenue, a 44.7% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high [11][15]. - Revenue from smart home appliances grew by 66.2%, with significant sales in air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [15]. - The number of active users globally reached 731 million, an 8.2% increase year-on-year, with 989 million connected IoT devices, up 20.3% [15]. R&D and Innovation - R&D investment continued to increase, reaching RMB 78 billion in Q2, with the number of R&D personnel hitting a record high of 22,641 [17]. - The focus on artificial intelligence is evident, with the release of open-source multimodal models and language models, enhancing product competitiveness [17].