Core Viewpoint - The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, stated that the liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market is sufficient [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is currently experiencing adequate liquidity, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [1]

美国财政部拍卖四个月期国债，得标利率4.195%（6月18日报4.235%），投标倍数3.13（前次为 2.88）。 ...

美国财政部拍卖两年期浮息国债（FRNS），贴现利率0.157%（5月28日报0.144%），投标倍数2.79（前 次为2.95）。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the bid-to-cover ratio for the 4-month U.S. Treasury auction as of June 25 reached 3.13, an increase from the previous value of 2.88 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Association (CSA) is conducting research on the regulatory system for bond market intermediaries to understand the current situation, industry demands, and identify issues and shortcomings [1][2] Group 1: Research Objectives - The CSA's research aims to evaluate the current regulatory framework for bond market intermediaries, focusing on the assessment from brokerage firms regarding the existing system [1] - The research will analyze challenges and issues within the regulatory framework from three dimensions: completeness and coordination, transparency and operability, and scientific validity [1] Group 2: Regulatory Enhancements - The CSA is seeking insights from brokerage firms on foreign regulatory practices for bond market intermediaries, including underwriting, ongoing management, ratings, auditing, and legal services [1] - The CSA's research emphasizes the need for efficiency in regulatory hierarchy, comprehensive coverage of intermediary business processes, and the alignment of regulatory tools with legislative goals [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - The research is deemed significant for improving the regulatory framework for bond market intermediaries, promoting a healthy and stable development of the bond market towards standardization and professionalism [2] - Regulatory scrutiny has intensified on the performance of intermediaries in the bond market, with increased frequency and intensity of inspections on those with high default rates and low quality evaluations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The ultra - long credit bond market is experiencing an over - heated sentiment. The ultra - long credit bond market has shown strong performance in both the primary and secondary markets, but there are still vulnerabilities in the market due to the extreme behavior of trading - oriented investors [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Ultra - long Credit Sentiment Over - heated 3.1.1 Stock Market Characteristics The ultra - long credit bond market is in an extremely strong situation. The central bank's support for the capital market boosts the bullish sentiment in the bond market. As the yield of coupon assets further declines, the ultra - long credit bonds have strengthened. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% has increased to 656 compared to last week [2][13]. 3.1.2 Primary Issuance Situation The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds continues to heat up. This week, the issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds totaled 31.61 billion, a 153% increase in supply compared to last week. Affected by the re - issued bond "24 Zhonghua 06 (Re - issued)", the average issuance rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly increased compared to last week. Coupled with the hot market for ultra - long bonds in the cash market, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds continues to rise [3][21]. 3.1.3 Secondary Trading Performance - **Index Performance**: The ultra - long credit bond index leads the market. In the latest week, the ultra - long credit bond index had a leading increase. The weekly increase of the AA+ credit bond index over 10 years was around 0.9%, while the increase of the same - maturity treasury bond index was 0.77% [4][28]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds has exceeded the previous high. This week, the market's enthusiasm for speculating on ultra - long credit bonds has further increased. The weekly trading volume of industrial bonds with a maturity of 7 - 10 years reached 644, far exceeding the weekly average during the previous round of the market in January this year. The total trading volume of credit bonds over 10 years also reached 167, indicating a hot trading sentiment [4][31]. - **Trading Yield**: The weekly average trading yield of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds has dropped to 2.14%, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds has narrowed to 27BP [4]. - **Investor Behavior**: The intensity of low - valuation bond - grabbing for ultra - long credit bonds has significantly increased, and the trading preference for 10 - 20 - year urban investment bonds has also recovered. The proportion of TKN transactions for credit bonds over 7 years has risen to over 80%, reaching around the 90% historical high since 2024 [4][35]. - **Investor Structure**: This week, insurance companies and funds remain the main investors in ultra - long credit bonds. Among them, funds have had a net purchase of ultra - long credit bonds exceeding that of insurance companies in the past two weeks. This week, the scale of funds' increase in 5 - 10 - year credit bonds was more than 7 billion, setting a new high since the first half of the year [41].

财政部表示将及时推出增量储备政策，发改委明日召开发布会，股市表现强势，利率震荡上行。 隔夜海外风险资产如期普涨，早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率平开在1.646%后窄幅震荡。财政部表示 根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策。发改委将于明天上午举行新闻发布会。股市表现强势、涨超 1%。10Y国债利率震荡上至1.6535%附近。 任何投资交易系统都不会 100% 的盈利，投资就是在一定条件下的试错。对了，让利润飞；错了，止损 跑路。既然都是试错，就不要有执念，不要去预测。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250625— 大A三根阳线，债农郁郁寡欢（-股市表现强势-财政部表示将及时推出增量储备政策- 发改委明日召开发布会+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展3653亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1563亿元逆回购到期，净投放2090亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率较昨日变化不大，DR001在1.37%附近，DR007在1.69%附近。 今日债农一边眼红隔壁大A勇闯年内新高，一边无奈叹气：年中考核在即，10Y国债收益率较去年末仅 下行2BP，你问我KPI多少？去年那可是下行了近90 ...

Group 1 - Shandong Guohui Investment Holding Group successfully issued a 3-year senior unsecured guaranteed bond under Reg S rules, attracting significant market attention and positive response [1][3] - The bond, guaranteed by Shandong Guohui, has a total issuance size of $110 million, with a fixed interest rate of 4.6%, down from an initial guidance of 5.3% [3] - Proceeds from the bond issuance will primarily be used to refinance offshore debts maturing in August 2025 and January 2026, optimizing the company's debt structure and reducing financing costs [3] Group 2 - The bond issuance was supported by various financial institutions, with Minyin Capital acting as the lead global coordinator and joint bookrunner, alongside other notable firms such as Zhongcheng International Securities and CITIC Construction Investment International [4] - The bond includes a change of control put option, allowing investors to sell the bond back to the issuer at 101% of its price under specific conditions [3] - The bond will be listed on the MOX Australian Exchange, with a minimum denomination of $200,000 and increments of $1,000, governed by UK law [3]

Group 1 - Sichuan issued 7-year general local bonds with a scale of 6.81889 billion, an issuance rate of 1.6300%, and a marginal multiple of 1.79 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.71 [1] - Sichuan issued 30-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 16.379 billion, an issuance rate of 2.0400%, and a marginal multiple of 6.00 times, surpassing the expected multiple of 1.94 [1] - Sichuan issued 30-year other special local bonds with a scale of 3.619 billion, an issuance rate of 2.0400%, and a marginal multiple of 7.22 times, also exceeding the expected multiple of 1.94 [1]

最近沃勒、鲍曼这些美联储大佬接二连三放话"7月可能降息"，连鲍威尔在国会都松了口。现在期货市场押注年内降息60个基点，比一周前又多押了15个 基点。道理很简单：降息预期一升温，债券价格就涨，收益率自然往下掉，交易员算的就是这个账。 第二股：中东停火+油价"神助攻" 特朗普突然宣布伊朗以色列停火，国际油价唰地跌了，通胀压力暂时缓解。再加上美国消费者信心数据爆冷，市场马上觉得"经济降温"剧本要上演，资金 就往美债里钻，推着收益率往下走。 老铁们，我是帮主郑重，在财经圈摸爬滚打20年，专做中长线的老炮儿。最近美债市场可有点热闹——交易员砸了3800万美金押注10年期收益率跌到 4%，这事儿得掰开了揉碎了聊。咱今儿就说说，这4%的坎儿背后，到底藏着哪些门道？ 先看交易员咋出牌：真金白银押注"跌跌不休" 上周五到周一，8月到期的10年期美债看涨期权突然火了，光权利金就涌进3800万美金。啥概念？就像一群老江湖集体买保险，赌收益率从现在4.3%跌到 4%。要是真跌到位，那可是自打4月特朗普搞关税突袭以来的最低位，直接把5月涨到4.6%的那波猛劲儿给"掰弯"了。 更有意思的是，周一有笔1000万的大单，直接锁定了行权价11 ...