Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - policy tone is expected to continue the characteristics of expansionary neutrality. The demands for stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing expectations remain. The meeting may emphasize policy continuity, and the necessity of strong stimulus may decline. It will also use the current window period to accelerate structural adjustment and industrial reform [1][15]. - Different policy areas may have various focuses, including "anti - involution" policies, fiscal policies, monetary policies, real estate policies, and consumption policies [16]. - After the July Politburo meeting, the bond market interest rates often show a trend of first falling and then rising, but the specific trend depends on the macro - economic situation and policy paradigm evolution [26]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. 7 - month Politburo Meeting Preview - **Economic Situation**: In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year - on - year, showing resilience. However, there are still economic pressures such as insufficient effective demand, a weak real estate market, low - level prices, and external uncertainties [14]. - **Policy Focuses** - **"Anti - involution" Policy**: Due to over - expansion of production capacity in some industries and price wars, the PPI has been negative for 33 consecutive months. The July Politburo meeting may focus on this policy to promote domestic structural adjustment, optimize supply, and prevent risks [16]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Considering the easing of Sino - US tariff games and the 5.3% GDP growth in the first half, it is expected to continue the tone of the April meeting, emphasizing the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. Attention should be paid to new policy - based financial instruments [18]. - **Monetary Policy**: It is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" tone, providing sufficient liquidity and coordinating with fiscal policies. The probability of an interest - rate cut in the short term may be low, and attention should be paid to the expansion of structural monetary policy tools [20]. - **Real Estate Policy**: In the first half of the year, real estate sales and investment were weak. In the second half, loose policies may be expected, focusing on releasing demand (such as lowering provident fund loan interest rates and relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities) and optimizing supply (such as improving the acquisition policy of existing commercial housing and financing mechanisms) [21][22]. - **Consumption Policy**: The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth has been increasing. The July Politburo meeting may continue to emphasize the importance of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. In the second half, consumption policies may continue to exert force, such as implementing "two new" policies, developing service consumption, and increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups [23]. - **Bond Market Performance**: After the July Politburo meeting, bond market interest rates often show a trend of first falling and then rising. From 2013 - 2024, on T + 5 days, the average 1 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 4BP, and the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1BP; on T + 30 days, the average 1 - year treasury bond interest rate increased by 4BP, and the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate increased by 1BP [26]. 2. 2024: Policy Tone Continues Positive Orientation, Bond Market Maintains Volatility - **Policy**: The meeting proposed that macro - policies should "continue to exert force and be more effective", emphasizing policy continuity. Fiscal policies focused on accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds and using ultra - long - term special treasury bonds; monetary policies aimed to increase support for the real economy [28][30]. - **Bond Market**: After the meeting, on T + 30 days, the 1Y and 10Y treasury bond yields increased by 6BP and 2BP respectively [28]. 3. 2022: Policy Intensity Slows Down, Economic Targets are Weakened, Interest Rates Decline - **Policy**: Compared with the April meeting, the judgment of economic downward pressure was alleviated. The meeting no longer emphasized achieving the annual economic growth target. Fiscal policies focused on using local government special bond funds, and monetary policies focused on implementing existing policies [35][37]. - **Bond Market**: After the meeting, on T + 30 days, bond market interest rates were in a downward trend, especially after the central bank unexpectedly cut OMO and MLF interest rates by 10BP in August [35]. 4. 2021: Policy Shifts from Structural Adjustment to Growth Stabilization, Bond Market Consolidates in a Range - **Policy**: The economic situation judgment changed, and the task of "stabilizing growth" took precedence over "structural adjustment". Fiscal policies were more proactive, accelerating local government bond issuance. Monetary policies focused on supporting small and medium - sized enterprises and difficult industries [42][49]. - **Bond Market**: After the meeting, the 10 - year treasury bond yield showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the short - end yield had a larger callback amplitude in the third quarter [52].

Market Overview - The market experienced a three-day upward trend, with the Wind All A Index breaking through previous consolidation levels, indicating a positive technical formation[1] - On June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.11%[2] Capital Flow - On June 25, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 31.572 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 32.554 billion yuan[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were securities, software development, and batteries, while the sectors with the highest outflows were chemical pharmaceuticals, agricultural chemicals, and shipping ports[3] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Finance reported that national lottery sales in May totaled 57.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%[7] - The Yangtze River Delta region's foreign trade volume surpassed 100 trillion yuan, reaching 101.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in the first five months of the year[6] Industry Developments - Shanghai aims to boost its marine intelligent robotics sector, targeting an increase in the shipbuilding and marine engineering industry's added value to over 45 billion yuan by 2030[5] - The telecommunications industry reported a total revenue of 748.8 billion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4%[9] Fund Dynamics - New consumption investment has become a hot topic in the capital market, with numerous new consumer companies experiencing significant stock price increases, attracting attention from major investment institutions[10] - As of June 24, the first batch of 26 new floating rate funds raised over 12.6 billion yuan, with 13 products already established[11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the Chinese stock market and bond market, highlighting the strong performance of the stock market and the challenges faced by bond investors due to rising interest rates and changing government policies [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The stock market has shown strong performance, with a notable increase of over 1% [4]. - The bond market, particularly the 10-year government bond yield, has experienced slight fluctuations, opening at 1.646% and reaching a high of 1.6535% [4][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 365.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 209 billion yuan into the market [2]. - The funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.69% [3]. - The Ministry of Finance indicated that it would timely introduce incremental reserve policies, which has led to speculation about potential increases in bond issuance due to the strong stock market performance [4][5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Bond investors are feeling disheartened as the stock market rallies, contrasting with their expectations for bond yields, which have only decreased by 2 basis points compared to the end of last year [5]. - The upcoming mid-year assessments are causing concern among bond investors, as last year's yield decline was significantly larger at nearly 90 basis points [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the release of 2025 college entrance examination scores starting from June 23, with multiple regions already announcing their score lines [1][4][6][7][9][11][13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 Central Financial Settlement Report indicates that the overall financial situation is satisfactory, with significant progress in fiscal reform and development [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the central general public budget revenue reached 100,462.06 billion yuan, which is 98.1% of the budget, and the total revenue, including transfers and carryover funds, amounted to 108,844.06 billion yuan [1]. - The central general public budget expenditure was 141,055.9 billion yuan, completing 97.9% of the budget, with total expenditure, including the supplementary central budget stabilization fund, reaching 142,244.06 billion yuan [1]. - The report highlights a 7.4% increase in central fiscal science and technology expenditure, reflecting a commitment to enhancing technological investment [1]. Group 2: Debt Management and Policy Implementation - An increase of 60,000 billion yuan in local government debt limit was approved for replacing hidden debts, with 20,000 billion yuan of this replacement quota fully issued and nearly completed [1]. - The issuance of 10,000 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds was arranged, with measures for fund supervision established to support the construction of "two heavy" projects and the implementation of "two new" policies [1][2]. - The fiscal department is focused on enhancing the management of local government debt and improving the performance of fiscal fund utilization [2]. Group 3: Economic Stabilization Measures - The fiscal department is committed to implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing counter-cyclical adjustments, and addressing prominent issues with targeted measures [2][3]. - In the first five months of the year, 62,900 billion yuan in national bonds were issued, marking a 38.5% year-on-year increase, while new local government bonds issued reached 19,800 billion yuan, up 36.6% [3]. - The central government has allocated 10,340 billion yuan for transfer payments to local governments, with 9,030 billion yuan already disbursed [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2024 central financial budget report presented by the Minister of Finance, emphasizing the implementation of proactive fiscal policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, while promoting economic development and social stability [1]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - The fiscal expenditure for the year reached 11.2953 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, significantly higher than the revenue growth rate of -0.3% [2]. - Government fund budget expenditure from January to May was 321.25 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 16%, also surpassing the revenue growth rate of -6.9% [2]. - The rapid issuance of government bonds has provided necessary funding for fiscal expenditures, with net financing from government bonds reaching 6.31 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year [4]. Debt Issuance - In the first five months, 6.29 trillion yuan of national bonds were issued, marking a 38.5% increase, while local government bonds issued totaled 1.98 trillion yuan, up 36.6% [3]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1.63 trillion yuan, completing 81.5% of the annual limit of 2 trillion yuan [6]. Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that the government should consider issuing the 2 trillion yuan debt limit for debt replacement earlier in the second half of the year to alleviate local repayment pressures [6]. - In response to the escalating trade tensions with the U.S., it is recommended to prepare incremental policies to support affected enterprises and industries, including unemployment subsidies and financial interest support [7]. Real Estate and Social Welfare - The government aims to enhance the construction of "good houses" and optimize existing policies to stabilize expectations and activate demand in the real estate market [8]. - The Ministry of Finance is working on establishing a childcare subsidy system to strengthen social welfare [8]. - As of now, 10.34 trillion yuan has been allocated for central transfers to local governments, with 9.03 trillion yuan already disbursed [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stabilizing market expectations through timely and effective policy measures in response to changing domestic and international conditions [1] - In 2025, the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be advanced by about one month compared to 2024, aimed at accelerating the implementation of "two重" and "two新" policies to boost domestic investment demand [3] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, alongside a 0.1 percentage point interest rate cut [3] Group 2 - This year, the "two重" construction project list includes significant cross-regional and cross-basin projects such as large and medium-sized irrigation areas and intercity railways in key urban agglomerations, with increased funding support for major engineering projects totaling 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year [6] - Approximately 3 trillion yuan in quality projects will be introduced to private enterprises in key sectors such as transportation and energy, with private capital participation in nuclear power projects reaching up to 20% [6] - The negative list for market access has been reduced to 106 items, a 30% decrease from the first version, allowing for the relaxation of entry restrictions in various industries [7]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The "I take the lead" policy signals a proactive approach to stabilize the market and boost confidence, with a focus on timely implementation of financial measures[3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 50 basis points (bp) reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and a 10 bp reduction in policy interest rates, exceeding market expectations[4] - The new policies aim to support various sectors, including capital markets, real estate, and consumption, with a particular emphasis on enhancing domestic demand[4] Group 2: Monetary Policy Measures - The RRR cut is expected to release approximately CNY 1 trillion in long-term liquidity into the market[10] - The policy interest rate was lowered from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 10 bp[10] - Structural monetary policy tools were adjusted, including a 25 bp reduction in rates for various targeted lending programs, supporting sectors like agriculture and small enterprises[10] Group 3: Capital Market Support - The government is committed to stabilizing the capital market by enhancing the role of the Central Huijin Investment Company as a stabilizing fund[6] - New measures include merging two capital market support tools, increasing the total quota to CNY 800 billion, aimed at boosting market liquidity[5] - The insurance sector will see an expansion in long-term investment trials, with an additional CNY 60 billion allocated for investment in the capital market[6] Group 4: Real Estate and Consumption - The housing provident fund interest rate was reduced by 25 bp, lowering the five-year mortgage rate from 2.85% to 2.6%[6] - A new CNY 500 billion "service consumption and elderly care re-lending" program was established to enhance credit support for consumption[5] - The policies indicate potential for further measures in the real estate sector, including easing purchase restrictions and additional rate cuts[6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall sentiment from the conference suggests that more incremental policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are likely to be introduced in response to external pressures[7] - The focus will be on targeted support for export enterprises and measures to enhance consumer spending[7] - Risks include potential economic downturns and the possibility of policy execution falling short of expectations[8]

全球形势复杂多变，二季度被普遍视为影响全年经济走势的关键窗口期。在这样的背景下，中央政治局 会议于4月25日召开，对经济工作作出最新部署。 延续去年以来"更加积极"的宏观政策主基调，会议强调，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策。适时降准降息，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策。 时代周报 原创深度报道2025.04.25 在保民生方面，会议提到，对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例。 此外，会议还指出，加快推动内外贸一体化，同时将加大服务业开放试点政策力度，加强对企业"走出 去"的服务。同国际社会一道，积极维护多边主义，反对单边霸凌行径。 在保证外贸企业不受到强烈冲击的同时，积极开拓其他市场，提升产品竞争力，这是提升外贸韧性的主 要方法。事实上，近几年许多外贸企业已经为高关税做了相应准备，一季度中国外贸进出口也展现了强 劲的韧性。 一季度，中国货物贸易进出口10.3万亿元，同比增长1.3%，连续8个季度超过10万亿元。其中，出口 6.13万亿元，增长6.9%。国家统计局副局长盛来运表示，从短期来看，美国加征高额关税会对中国经济 和外贸带来一定压力，但是改变不了中国经济持续长期向好的 ...

中国经济，正频频让人感到"超预期"。 一季度经济同比增速5.4%，超出了很多国内外机构的预测，而过去往往在四月底召开的中央政治局会议，来得也比往年更早一 些。 时间本身也是信号。 当前，经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大，在这样的国内外情况下，及时召开会议并向社会传递应对 当前形势的决策判断与工作部署，可以帮助各界更好认识当前经济形势，统一思想认识，也可以更好凝聚共识。 细看中央政治局会议新闻通稿，多处表述之前都很少见。比如这句， "统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸斗争" 。和2018年的"经贸摩 擦"相比，"经贸斗争"反映出中央对当前国际形势的严峻性、长期性和艰巨性的最新判断，也正基于这样的判断，会议提出要"强化 底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作。" 以变应变。 会议提出， "要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期" ，也蕴含不少新意。 "稳就业"排在首位，"对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"，表明在外部冲击加大的情况下，对就业这个民 生之首的高度重视。 稳企业、稳市场，"多措并举帮扶困难企业"，透露出宏观决策对微观经济运行主体的关切度在进一步提升。在去年9月以来一 ...