1、截至2025年5月底，2024/25年制糖期（以下简称"本制糖期"）食糖生产已全部结束。本制糖期全国共生产 食糖1116.21万吨，同比增加119.89万吨，增幅12.03%。 （利空） 进口： 1、据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年6月份我国进口食糖42万吨，同比增加39.23万吨。2025年1-6月份我 国进口食糖105.08万吨，同比减少25.12万吨，降幅19.29%。2024/25榨季截至6月，我国进口食糖251.26万 吨，同比下降64.93万吨，降幅20.54%。（利空） 2、据海关总署数据，2025年5月份我国进口糖浆和预混粉(含税则号1702.90、2106.906)合计6.43万吨，同比 减少15.06万吨。 2025年1-5月，累计进口19.03万吨，同比减少53.99万吨，降幅73.94%。2024/25榨季截至 5月，全国累计进口170290项下三类商品共82.32万吨，同比减少32.23万吨，降幅28.13%。 （利多） 白糖产业周报 ——持续回落 2025/08/03 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国内市场 供 ...

Core Insights - Mauritania's government has signed a $446 million public-private partnership agreement to establish a sugar industry project in the Foum Gleita region of Gorgol province [1] - The project aims to enhance food security and achieve self-sufficiency in sugar production, with a contract duration of 30 years and production expected to commence within three years [1] - The initiative will utilize 17,000 hectares of agricultural land and secure water resources from a dam, initially providing 500 million cubic meters, potentially increasing to 1.1 billion cubic meters for long-term sustainability [1] Economic Impact - The project is expected to save foreign exchange expenditures on sugar imports and promote overall agricultural development and industrialization [1] - The involvement of a contractor alliance, including the Sudan Badri Group, will leverage Brazilian expertise in sugarcane cultivation and processing to ensure quality [1] - The project is projected to create numerous job opportunities, significantly improving the living standards of local residents [1] Domestic Consumption - Following the signing of the first phase agreement, the domestic sugar consumption self-sufficiency rate is anticipated to reach 63%, which is crucial for reducing import dependency [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's overall production progress was lower than the historical average, causing concerns about potential production cuts. However, data in early July showed an acceleration in production and a significant increase in the sugar - making ratio. In the domestic market, the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports led to a rapid decline in futures prices to close this window [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5800 - 5850 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell call options (SR509C5800) at 15 - 20 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories aiming to lock in procurement costs, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5650 - 5700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SR509P5700) at 20 - 30 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices, while concerns about Brazil's production cuts cause price fluctuations. The opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window leads to a decline in futures prices [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - India's NFCSF predicts that the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season will be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to mid - July, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative cane crushing volume of 256.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.61%; sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [5]. - In June, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [7]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [7]. - Coca - Cola plans to re - use sugar as a beverage additive in the US, and PepsiCo may follow suit if there is market demand [8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons [8]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production to 46 million tons in the 25/26 season [8]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [8]. - India's monsoon arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual, and it is expected that the 25/26 season will see a strong recovery in sugar production, reaching about 35 million tons [8]. - In June, sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window is open [9]. - In the first half of July, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 49.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.77%; sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07% [9]. 3.5 Market Data - **Basis and Price Changes**: - On July 31, 2025, the basis between Nanning and SR01 was 395, with a daily increase of 11 and a weekly increase of 13; the basis between Kunming and SR01 was 260, with a daily increase of 11 and a weekly increase of 18 [10]. - On August 1, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5620, with a daily decline of 0.62% and a weekly decline of 1.51% [10]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: - On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Nanning was 6050, with no daily or weekly change; the price in Kunming was 5915, with a weekly decrease of 5 [11]. - **Import Price Changes**: - On August 1, 2025, the in - quota import price from Brazil was 4494, with a daily increase of 36 and a weekly increase of 12; the out - of - quota price was 5710, with a daily increase of 48 and a weekly increase of 17 [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 2.43%. Internationally, the rainy season has brought good production prospects for major Asian sugar - producing countries, and strong production signs in Brazil have cast a shadow of loose supply on the raw sugar market. However, the lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and international markets has opened the profit window for out - of - quota imports, releasing import pressure. On the demand side, the hot summer has led to increased demand for food and beverage industries, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, supporting the price. Overall, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate due to the combination of peak domestic demand and increased imports and expected global supply [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. International sugar market: The rainy season in Asia and strong production in Brazil lead to a supply - loose expectation, but lower ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand support prices. Domestic sugar market: The opening of the out - of - quota profit window releases import pressure, and the peak consumption season provides support. The overall market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: - The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fluctuated this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.43%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 2.65% month - on - month to 198,761 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position increased by 0.86% month - on - month to 258,490 contracts. The non - commercial net position was - 59,729 contracts, a decrease of 14.65% month - on - month [8]. - The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was 3,472 contracts, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 19,443 [21]. - **Spot Market**: - As of August 1, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,900 yuan/ton [25]. - As of July 29, 2025, the estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Brazilian sugar was 5,761 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%; the in - quota price was 4,533 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. The estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Thai sugar was 5,828 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88%; the in - quota price was 4,585 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [28]. - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 199 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.44% from the previous week. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.42% from the previous week [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: - By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The total sugar production in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [38]. - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [42]. - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [46]. - **Demand Side**: - As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China were 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45% [50]. - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [55]. 3.4 Option Market - Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not described in text [56]. 3.5 Sugar Futures - Stock Correlation Market - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not described in text [60].

亚洲糖周报：需求持续疲软，从原糖到精炼糖"全线告急"，下跌通道已打开？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract dropped significantly. The 09 contract closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 0.92%, with a reduction of 33,554 positions. The decline might be due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. Speculative long - positions in the near - month 09 contract exited in large numbers, while industrial hedging long - positions showed signs of entering. Speculative funds on the far - month 01 contract had an obvious intention to go long, and the 9 - 1 spread might further shrink [7][8]. - On Tuesday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded, with the main October contract rising 0.79% to 16.56 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main October contract fell 0.02% to $475.30 per ton. The overnight rise in crude oil prices provided some support to sugar prices. The market is expecting a significant increase in the production data of central - southern Brazil in the first half of July [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 0.92%, with a position of 277,031 contracts and a reduction of 33,554 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,666 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 0.91%, with a position of 200,143 contracts and an increase of 18,274 contracts; US sugar 10 closed at 16.56 cents per pound, up 0.13 cents or 0.79%, with a position of 395,463 contracts and a reduction of 2,396 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 17.16 cents per pound, up 0.11 cents or 0.65%, with a position of 223,411 contracts and an increase of 160 contracts [7]. - **Analysis of Zhengzhou Sugar Market**: The decline of Zhengzhou sugar was possibly due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. The exit of speculative long - positions in the 09 contract and the entry intention of industrial hedging long - positions, along with the long - entry intention of speculative funds in the 01 contract, may lead to a further shrinkage of the 9 - 1 spread [8]. 3.2. Industry News - **Farmland Moisture in Guangxi**: According to a report released by the Guangxi Soil and Fertilizer Station in mid - July, among 42 monitoring points of 14 farmland moisture monitoring stations in the region, 16 points had excessive moisture, 22 points had suitable moisture, and 4 points had insufficient moisture. Over 90% of the farmland moisture was suitable to excessive during the monitoring period [9]. - **Sugar Production Forecast in Central - Southern Brazil**: A survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed that the sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of July is expected to increase by 12.5% to 3.329 million tons. The cane crushing volume is expected to increase by 11.3% year - on - year to 48.31 million tons. The sugar yield per ton of cane (ATR) is expected to decrease by 4.1% year - on - year to 136.18 kilograms per ton. The sugar - making ratio of cane is expected to be 53.11% [9]. - **Sugar Mill Clearance in Guangxi**: Tiandong Ertang Sugar Factory's "Dongxing" brand cleared its inventory on July 25, becoming the 7th sugar factory of Guangxi Nanhua to clear its inventory in the 24/25 crushing season, 2 more than the same period last year. Currently, only Longtian and Mianhuahua brands are still quoting [9]. - **Customs Mutual Recognition Arrangement**: The "Arrangement on Mutual Recognition of the Chinese Customs Enterprise Credit Management System and the Thai Customs 'Authorized Economic Operator' System" will be officially implemented on August 1, 2025 [9]. - **Coca - Cola's New Product**: Coca - Cola Company announced on Tuesday that it will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall, confirming a recent statement by President Donald Trump [9]. 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, the Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [11][15][20]. - The total long - position of the top 20 seats was 325,093 contracts, an increase of 105,773 contracts; the total short - position was 212,307 contracts, a decrease of 17,666 contracts; the total delivery - related position was 192,544 contracts, a decrease of 26,731 contracts [23].

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently involved in a legal dispute regarding a land lease contract, with a total claim amounting to 17.5989 million yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Lawsuit Background - The company filed a civil lawsuit against Nanning Zhengyang Agricultural Machinery Cooperative and others on October 28, 2022, which was accepted by the court in December 2022 [2]. - The company appealed the first-instance judgment to the Nanning Intermediate People's Court, which was accepted in September 2024 [3]. Group 2: Current Legal Status - The company has submitted a compulsory execution application to the court following the judgment, and the execution case has been accepted with specific case numbers [4]. - The total amount involved in the ongoing legal matters is 17.5989 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Financial Impact - The company has indicated that the uncertainty surrounding the lawsuit's progress and execution makes it difficult to assess the impact on current or future profits [1][6].

原糖价格三天来首次下跌 主要产糖国巴西的产量高于预期 智通财经7月30日电，由于巴西7月上半月的产量高于预期，纽约原糖期货价格三天来首次下跌。纽约原 糖下跌1%，至每磅16.43美分；伦敦市场白糖下跌1.2%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase, and the short - term tightness in the trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements influenced by phased production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - Domestically, the sales and production speed is fast, and inventory reduction is ahead of schedule. With the tightening of syrup import policies, how to fill the production - demand gap has become the focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it is expected to support sugar prices. However, due to the weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. - The decline in Brazil's sugar production year - on - year has raised market concerns, but it has already been priced in the market. Considering the expected loose global sugar supply - demand situation, raw sugar is expected to trade in a range in the short term. In the domestic market, the inventory reduction of domestic sugar is progressing well, and inventory pressure is limited. Affected by the international market, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,804, down 63 or 1.07%, with a trading volume of 234,894 (an increase of 74,893) and an open interest of 310,585 (a decrease of 33,554); SR01 closed at 5,701, down 74 or 1.28%, with a trading volume of 21,005 (an increase of 3,812) and an open interest of 45,235 (an increase of 693); SR05 closed at 5,615, down 47 or 0.83%, with a trading volume of 196 (an increase of 49) and an open interest of 458 (an increase of 78) [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 6,120, 5,905, 6,320, 6,050, 6,175, 6,135, and 6,420 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 316, 101, 516, 246, 371, 331, and 616 [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 86 (up 27), the SR09 - SR5 spread was 189 (down 16), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was 103 (up 11) [5]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of - 0.2, and a freight of 38, the in - quota price was 4,474, the out - of - quota price was 5,699, the spread with Liuzhou was 421, the spread with Rizhao was 436, and the spread with the futures market was 105; for Thai imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of 0.9, and a freight of 18, the in - quota price was 4,525, the out - of - quota price was 5,766, the spread with Liuzhou was 354, the spread with Rizhao was 369, and the spread with the futures market was 38 [5]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **International Market**: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to accumulate, and the short - term tight trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements affected by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The fast sales and production speed and pre - emptive inventory reduction, along with the tightening of syrup import policies, make the filling of the production - demand gap a focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it will support sugar prices. However, due to weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade slightly stronger in a range, but the upside potential is limited. Long positions are recommended to gradually take profits and exit [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12]. - **Options**: Sell put options [13]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures showing various data such as regional monthly inventories, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales - to - production ratios of domestic sugar, spot prices, spot price spreads, basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][18][23][27][29][32]

报告标题 - Sugar Monthly Report, July 30, 2025 [12][18][23] 报告内容目录 第一部分：前言概要 - 巴西制糖比维持高位，需关注实际糖产情况 [5] 第二部分：基本面情况 - 包含WTI原油与ICE11号糖价格走势、ICE11号糖与CZCE郑糖价格走势等多组数据图表，涉及全球、巴西、印度、泰国、中国等地区食糖供需格局、产量、库存、出口、价格等方面内容 [15][19][24] 第三部分：后市展望及策略推荐 - 文档未阐述具体内容 [82]